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tv   [untitled]    April 14, 2011 1:30am-2:00am EDT

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they come in. so long to play with. the other one to train her spirits. but she is the jesus of the river. is not in her best mood. the only. chasing a dream are to. fortune argue live from moscow here's a look at the top stories the world's fastest growing economies call for a peaceful solution to the libyan crisis through dialogue as leaders give
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a press conference that extends summit in china the so-called brics group i've come to gather in a bid to have their say on global affairs. the us using the latest technological advances to spread democracy in the arab world the training of anti-government activists hopes to give a ripple effect and some say america's intentions are not so pure. and relations between the u.s. and pakistan hit their lowest level since nine eleven islamabad demands washington cut cia operations in the country as drone attacks continue to cause casualties among civilians. and staying with our coverage of the break summit in china r t you spoke to martin gilman who was a representative of the international monetary fund in moscow in the late ninety's that's now into the show spotlight that's next. hungry for the full story we've got it first the biggest issues get the human voice face to face with the news makers
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who. will. bring you the latest inside stem technology from around russia. we've got the future covered. hello again or welcome to thought like the into the shell on our t.v. . they might get on the program. of the i.m.f. . the international monetary fund says the economies of brazil russia india china and south africa are going to see a tremendous growth in the chinese analyst as far as to say the brics financial
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systems will make up a third of the world's g.d.p. in just for a year to date there has of the brics countries are in china then discussing joint opportunities the future held for. what are they and what are the perspectives of this aggressive young international organization is the former senior resident representative of the i.m.f. in moscow and professor the high school of economics. ten years ago goldman sachs economist says the joint potential of brazil russia india and china essentially could become the world's top economies by twenty p.t. this year south africa joined the group adding even more potential to the financial systems today brics makes up almost a third of the elfs territory nearly a harford world's population and a considerable part of global agriculture resources coupled with immense natural
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resources and cheap labor costs these factories provide for their current rapid and stable economic growth. is the welcome to the show my pleasure thank you very much thanks for coming first of all the true brick it was it was born as a purely analytical tree like a special special with the. you specialists experts used to. when they were talking about this for country but it was formalized in two thousand and nine the summit of the bric countries in the blue russia what is the point of these summits that their leaders hold every once in a while what are they driving what's the result they're trying to change. you know the the summit to solve when they first started in your katrine bergen two thousand and nine i was among the skeptics saying this is just purely symbolism
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because as you pointed out when goldman sachs created this term in may jim o'neill's career in two thousand and one it was just an acronym it was just a reference to the four largest economies in the world after the g seven what were the next four countries on the list and there was no particular rhyme or reason historically culturally politically financially they're very different countries india china are still very poor countries russia and brazil on a per capita g.d.p. basis are much wealthier countries so what do they cut what do they have in common some are manufacturers some are raw material exporters what is the common basis for a summit. and as i said i was a bit of a skeptic however i have to admit that. i think that the initiative that president medvedev took in two thousand and nine to bring this
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group together as leaders. makes sense first of all within the context of the g. twenty these these are the after the g. seven this are the next large group of countries and particularly after welcoming south africa to join them this past february to make five. they represent after all even now twenty percent of the world's output of g.d.p. and they represent forty percent of the world's population this is not an insignificant grouping but the question could be is this just symbolism. maybe an answer this question will be if for example today or tomorrow these leaders in china will work out a joint position a joint idea that there will be later pushing in the framework of the g. twenty will this act would you say well my my view
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about international politics is that the. g. five. twenties don't really have much significance what what has significance are individual countries pursuing their interest when they have relative economic and financial power and when they decide to work with some other country. you're the guy among those who believe that in the bilateral relations matter everything else is just a little relations everything is basically declarations however when countries for bilateral reasons want to work with others to pursue a what they perceive as a common threat or common interest they can have real power and they're in i think is a possibility that you're right that if they were to get together if there were some issue on the table or off the table more likely that was of common concern
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to these five leaders in sign your they could make a difference. but let's be a little bit skeptical let's remember that these countries are very different and the well south africa made them even more different because because well brick work was a good name it was a great i mean it was something to do to tell a lie like pink floyd you can build while it's true that we're going to war good points good to hear those bricks now in south africa first of all do you do you agree approve of this decision to make a five there is this country really belong to the circulation but anyway when some a fifth country joins me now it's already you know it is a shin something to enjoy. and i think i think the addition of
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south africa was a little bit gratuitous. because i think that one of the features that china russia india and to some extent india and brazil have in common is that they are not only large economies the largest after the g. seven but they are creditor countries. they have the money now south africa is not really in that category south africa's still by african standards a wealthy country but by the standards of these other countries it is still lagging well behind. but time is sure that that helps i mean it has promised serials just like brazil and i think the potential within a very few years to catch up with some of the others so if we're talking about not the actual situation in two thousand and eleven but we're looking ahead to twenty fifteen twenty twenty then one can understand the logic of going ahead and inviting south africa during this group but let me just underline the point that the more
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members you have of this grouping the less likely to have a meaningful agreement the less sympathetic it is for people like you who believe in a bilateral that's right ok but many people still say there is a really special well that the brits countries played in the recovery in the post crisis recovery. yes i think undoubtedly if you if you look at the numbers produced by the international monetary fund it's quite clear that the drivers of world growth after two thousand and eight work countries like china. brazil india nigeria and south africa russia until until last year was not part of that after the sharp drop in g.d.p. in two thousand and nine. but even russia is recovering relatively well now not
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at the chinese rate but still quite well so it is it is certainly true that these countries have become a locomotive they have decoupled from what is happening in the the in my favor the old tired advanced countries of the west analysts see the us economy overtaken by the so-called brakes by as early as two thousand and eighteen more now on the brics route of growth in reported by spotlights union. of the world that's what china's been called it's becoming quite a challenge to buy anything which was not at least partially mainland china until the late one nine hundred eighty s. its influence in the world economy was minimal at thirty years later china is the world's top manufacturer the second largest economy after it was sane and one of the fastest growing emerging economies of the brics brazil russia india and china
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has accounted for a third of the global g.d.p. growth over the last ten years letting economists speak of the global economic power shift the wealth the g seven economies are predicted to be overtaken by the brics within the next decade of so the leaders of the bric countries held their first summit in russia. two years ago where they discussed ways to reshape the world financial system they spoke of the need to reduce dependency on the u.s. dollar some time later china and russia this sided to use their own national currencies for bilateral trade agreed group has recently been joined by south africa the biggest economy on the continent. sucks when the chain break ten years ago expects a major emerging market slowdown and might twenty twenty contribute. to global g.d.p. . well the idea of bric was the
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emerging country as they put it will develop faster than the developed capitalist economies becoming more and more independent is this happening is this really a trend after the crisis not yet not yet not yet but the potential is really there . you know the world has been dominated at least for the last twenty years by in economic and financial terms by what you could call the washington consensus it was a. kind of a keynesian view of the world that the government had a role but the private sector should be left to do what it was satsang our sights and model like obviously since the two thousand and eight crisis this model is somewhat discredited and so these countries come along with very different cultural political and economic traditions and say wait
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a minute we don't necessarily want to follow individually or collectively the washington consensus now they don't have anything to replace it with yet but the potential is clearly there. so as martin gellman the former senior resident representative of that i am and in moscow and a professor of the higher school of economics spotlight will be back shortly after we take a break so stay with us we will be back with this interview in the congo. they come in the thousands. still want to play with six p. others wants to take her spirits. see what she is the chief
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of the river. there. is no food in her system is celia. chasing adrenaline our tastes. chosen from among many. she was given a clear cut mission. a mission he successfully accomplished. and became the first ever man in her space. hero of the soviet union one of the best known persons in the whole world. all his thoughts were focused on flights. could he ever think that his life's work would cost him his life. one happened in those few seconds. and what seemed to
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its knees sealed barrels still. curing a car any. place on our team. welcome back to the party lines going over just a reminder that my guest in the studio today is mr morton galen and former senior resident representative of the international monetary fund in moscow and professor of the harvard school smartened during the break you just as you just said you mentioned that the fun thing would be to try to understand what the what the leaders could do with that summit there how do you today in china and in the country what what's fun about it what could they do with it i believe it's one of being
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a very provocative in talking about that particular group of leaders having fun together but if they're going to go all the way to one island why not they've got a nice speech is the the point though is that they've got a formal agenda which is pretty boring ok pretty entered issues of international trade and in poor countries development and better coordination with the g twenty however these countries as diverse as they are do face a common threat but right now they face as common threat individually and the threat is called inflation you know in russia the first quarter of the year inflation exceeded nine percent at an annual rate in china the preliminary estimates are that inflation in the first quarter of the year exceeded six percent which for the chinese is three games are a signal in india brazil they have the same south africa the same inflation problems these are not just domestically created in russia there was
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a particular instance where the budget the end of last year was too expensive but basically the inflation comes because there's too much liquidity in the world economy where does it come from the federal reserve and the central banks of the advanced countries that are trying to prop up their economies but. because the investment part possibilities are poor but money comes to the emerging market countries in drives inflation so this inflation problem is a threat and believe me all five of these leaders meeting in china are going to have very clearly in mind what happened in north africa and in the middle east with food and oil prices. speaking of bricks. now that they added unless it's no longer brick and some people are once again talking about taking you know are out of this out of this world well i mean i mean saying russia doesn't really belong do you. you're a skeptic you're
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a person is do you and you teach in must in the muslim school of economics are there grounds to to to question russia's. position inside this this next. first of all i don't i don't think brics is really a an organization it's just a grouping and it happens to be a grouping that is just the brain king of countries after the g. seven in terms of global economic power well whether russia skeptics like it or not russia is still there and if you whether you use purchasing power adjusted g.d.p. or whether you use dollar exchange rates the russian economy is still as the end of two thousand and ten is still depending on which data set you look at the eighth of
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the ninth largest economy in the world so it's clearly part of this group people criticizing russia say that the russian government is too much involved in the economy but if we look at china going to say i don't know i just think it's a tough comparison once again if you're looking through the lens of the washington consensus one might be very critical in fact one might be very critical of all these countries in india basically the banking system is completely controlled by the state completely so. you you have countries where the role of government is much more into role to the economy than one normally would associate with north america or europe india india the even changing hands of private bands and you're going to point the nobel prize winners this thing but you're not going to be that out of the bait any more why because we said so that's ok now another point another point that really worries many people and it
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does worry me to is corruption in russia well here i think we are one of the champions i mean the russian economy is one of the champions and in corruption so so so this doesn't matter does it in terms of the economy in terms of growth in terms of competitive investment after two. well certainly corruption is part of the matrix of problems that is causing the country to. be trapped in this raw material producer. impasse that it's in and not be able to go beyond that after all basically the russian economy has a per capita g.d.p. of about fifteen thousand roughly fifteen thousand dollars per capita and you've had countries in the twentieth century that have come up against that level in a never they bounce up and then they go back down argentina venezuela in that so
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the real challenge for for russia is whether russia is going to just be bumping up against its limit because of problems of corruption or whether night korea remember korea was very poor forty years ago whether russia can like korea can move beyond that fifteen thousand kind of barrier and become a much more normally functioning economy where rule of law and corruption are are are. normalized with other countries. it's possible listen there are countries like italy which after world war two were very corrupt. dynamic private sector but very corrupt political class and with the mafia the italians have come of very long way in cleaning it up and so i'm relatively optimistic or let's say skeptically optimistic that if the italians could do it if
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the koreans could do it with their child ball and everything the dominant groups are the japanese but the beats and when the. conglomerates and pay me back payments to pull politicians if they could do it why shouldn't the russians be able to do it but it i don't know what the key is to solving this problem but i i certainly hear the right kinds of words coming out of the kremlin on this. you when we were talking about overcoming the crisis and you said well the russia is doing much better now many people say that russia was one of the most worst hit by the crisis despite this air bag of money that really they're proud of. what was the reason that russia was so much. i think there's a simple explanation but. it alexander you're absolutely right russia was hit worse than almost all the other the of the other countries and the reason is because
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you russians basically don't have very much trust in your own economy in your government. so what happens is when the crisis started money just started flowing out of the country and not just foreign investors say i want to get my money out russia's very risky all of a sudden but russian investors taking their money out or not putting their money back in so that they were just taking it out of the banking system say well banks are looking a little bit shaky here after all that happened in nigeria that happened in south africa that happened in brazil. money goes out of the banking system but in those countries if the money stayed in the country in russia though the money actually left the country who else not a long white people who started taking away money working for years they were the first you know i think i think considering the situation i better take my money
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away we the russians especially the businessmen they are taught to take to look at the foreigners to be taught by for to to follow their moscow school of economics where you are proud to be teaching his approach of the mechanism of teaching russia from the west how to run the business you should admit it it's but it's one of the little you that i admitted i have admitted i. just followed the example of foreigners then they take google and you win one step further we should do so until until what was that going to read about it in alexander the point though is that there is a really good reason that this happened it wasn't because that's what we teach at a higher school of economics but because in russia unlike in brazil and one china unlike india in russia you could take your money out of a country in those other countries they have capital controls that what they want
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you it's illegal in russia since two thousand and six june two thousand and six you have complete convert ability of the ruble and there's a good historical reason for that because. you had a terrible social experiment for seventy four years under bolshevik communism and in this country and so once you get rid of controls any hint of reimposing any control like the brazilians or the commies of that bribe right so you can't do it you don't have you're caught between a rock and a hard place here because you have to keep the economy completely open but there is no there is no emerging market economy in the world that is as open as the russian economy so it means can we make it use it as an advantage and then of course over and over deliver our over to liberalism in the end yes given the fact that you do for historical reasons you don't have much choice yes you could turn it to an advantage for instance. as your president would like to become an international
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financial center or for the root russian ruble to become eventually a reserve currency one of one of the preconditions but you just mentioned earlier corruption and a few others but one of the preconditions for these type of developments international financial center international reserve currency is complete convert ability of a currency and so yes i mean that that's part of the building blocks. thank you thank you very much and just a reminder that my guest on the show today was more in here on monday former senior resident representative of the i.m.f. in moscow and professor of the ira school of economics and that's it for now from all of us here if you want to have your say on spotlight or have someone in mind so you think i've been through the next time your truck melayu algren up as our t.v. darts are you unless he spotlight interacts we'll be back with more first don't
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comment on what's going on in and outside russia until then stay on r.t. and take care thank you to french response. m. m. m m. m.
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m. m m. m. m. m m m .


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