tv [untitled] October 28, 2011 8:01pm-8:31pm EDT
spotlight is next to this time i'll get off sits down with richard jones deputy executive director of the international energy agency to discuss the decrease of the planet's oil reserves and what it means for the future of mankind. hello again they're welcome to spotlight the interview share on our take i'm al green of in today my guest on the show richard. according to the international energy agency the surging and richard the one who will most likely lead the world to a dive. called reserves are running out faster than expected and the growing fuel consumption raises environmental concerns but this all the warnings people continue burning oil and oil and alternative energy sector is still unsufficient the developed so
what's to be done to avoid that future without dramatically changing our way of living and maybe russia could help with that we're asking of the deputy executive director of the international energy agency richard jones. the international energy agency says the world is entering the golden age of gas with production to rise by fifty percent in the next twenty years russia is going to ship all were hundred and ten billion cubic meters of gas to europe through its south and north stream pipelines the construction of south stream is starting suit and old stream will start operating in early november the trans underneath the baltic sea and delivers russian gas directly to western europe this is meant to improve european energy security and weaken its dependence on transit countries.
mr jones a welcome to the show thank you for having me thank you thank you very much for being for being here well. the international energy agency the i.a.e.a. has signed a new car pray shin agreements with russia one. you in these it weakness can you explain in a couple what it's. it's it's a good question but. basically we're continuing the evolution of our cooperation which has gone on for many years but in particular the focus in upcoming will be more and more on energy efficiency which is a very important objective for russia not only will it to allow russia to adopt new more modern technologies will be and benefit for economic growth in russia it will give you more resources to add to your exports so i think it will be a win win for russia and for the international community because greater supplies of russian oil and gas will mean greater energy security for the rest of the world
well we live talking about energy security security. especially demand but also security of supply there anyway when you talk security of supply security of demand we mean that there is a contradiction between the consumers and the suppliers do these new agreements at least try try to to overcome these countries yes in a way because one of the main components of the agreements is that we work more closely together and we figure we can learn from each other particularly in improving our market forecasts and this year's world energy outlook which is coming out in just a few days now in fact our executive director will be in moscow on the eleventh of november to present it just two days after that after the worldwide launch. it benefits greatly from cooperation with russian experts we did a special chapter actually special section focusing on russia and in preparing that
i mean the judgments are all our own they have to be but in preparing that that section we relied very much on conversations with the russian officials and executives from a variety of private companies as. well in russia richard since you mentioned the forecasts well according to one of your forecasts of the i.a.e.a. i quote despite concerns about the state of the world economy while demand will rise by one point three million barrels to ninety point five million barrels a day in two thousand and twelve next year what keeps the demand so high despite what's happening in the world the simple answer is that there is a crisis in part of the world and the other part of the world that continues to grow and the part of the world is continuing to grow has a high marginal demand for oil products so oil is continuing to grow and why is that because they're getting rich enough to buy cars in china and india and so it's
transportation in those two countries which is a major part of the incremental demand in fact in o.e.c.d. countries the developed world where there is an economic crisis you may actually see declines in the use of oil and consumers and young growing economies they like big cars. have very gaskin c.m.e. . their values and then think about savings and we just hope they buy more efficient cars and at this stage in their development in our country that's not available what so do the forecast for for oil prices we know we don't we don't we don't forecast. we what we do is we base our projections for short term prices we use basically the future price that's available in the market we just assume that the that the people that are in the financial markets know better than we do what the price might be in the future and so we just use the future strip as we call it the different prices for different time periods as the as the word our working assumption on prices and then we figure out supply and demand from that rather than
trying to forecast price well let's talk about libya libya produced one point six million barrels of oil a day right now production fell dramatically because of those civil war everything had to come. words to only ten thousand a day ten thousand barrels a day which is the if i'm not mistaken the figure from last month's what does it mean for the world market because it would be aware what was a considerable source of fuel was it i mean the problem with oil of course is that it's a very inelastic fuel price in the last of the his low so small changes in supply mean big changes in price and that's basically what we saw in that period and because of that one point six million barrel a day shortfall in libyan production and most libyan production was exported so it was of about a shortfall of one and a half million barrels a day on the world markets alone and especially if it's because the issue of the
shortage was prolonged i mean it really libyan exports went to about zero in march and so that's now been you know we're going on seven months now and they're recovering a little bit higher this month and by the end of the year they could be between four hundred six hundred thousand barrels a day but even by june we estimated that over one hundred thirty million barrels have been taken out of the market and that has to come from somewhere either it either it comes from from declining stocks either commercial stocks or government stocks or it means demand is lower than it would have been otherwise and why is that because the tightening of the market raises the price and so the price means some some people that would have bought oil buy less oil they said well ok but i don't know if it's savings if you're going without it because it may it may mean lower economic oh no but nobody's nobody even considering of trying to use to tease you cruisers really well we did use them i mean we used them in june and. we think
that that present prevented a price spike at the time because it helped to supply the market we released sixty million barrels. thirty eight million barrels a day. it was from government strategic stocks twenty two million barrels was released by allowing companies to hold less stocks companies have kind of like a bank has a reserve requirement companies sometimes are required by governments to hold stocks so release those we relax those requirements some countries did and other countries sold oil into the market out of their strategic stocks and that that release was very well received by the market more than thirty more than ninety seven percent of the thirty eight million barrels that was offered from strategic stocks was picked up by the market and by the way that oil was sold at market prices so we weren't trying to undercut the market we were just trying to supply
the market at the prevailing price well you mentioned that libya is still wanting to regain its previous production but now it's ten thousand you talk maybe that fifty thousand all know five hundred thousand five hundred thousand not one point six million so how long will it take libya to to regain its one point six is the possibility is what it's right and should do yeah well nobody's short answer is nobody knows and then of what we've been saying is it will take many months and even but they did destroy the industry i mean there's no but there is some damage there is some damage and it has to be recovered and oil fields you know they can be damaged. you know just if they're neglected so you know the damage needs to be assessed to the infrastructure to the fields i'm cautiously optimistic that to the oil fields could come back on. by the end of next year but i don't want to make any such predictions simply because we dissed don't have enough information
at this time so if it's going to take a while and one of the reasons why we now think we can get by with lower amounts is because it is ramping up a little bit also there were some other small outages around the world that have now. and corrected but the main reason is that demand is weaker than we thought it was economic forecasts are going down and so we're and we're not the only ones forecasters around the world are revising downward their assumptions or their forecasts for demand not only for this year but for two thousand and twelve as well so we think the market will stay in relative balance but. it's it's not going to be a good. year for the for the oil industry i think it will actually if we talk in general about the arab spring it certainly. was welcomed by politicians in the major democracies we saw it with clinton out amused she was when
she saw the picture. of the lasts arab dictators being massacred in yeah he lives just the other day but that one market wasn't so much happy about the arab spring was it well it did disrupt the markets and but you know markets can be disrupted in many ways and. you never know where it's going to come from i mean the last time we use stocks it was because of a hurricane. you know the first time when you stocks it was because of international aggression and this was because of civil civil dispute. in nigeria they've had a lot of problems with sabotage the pipelines of people trying to steal the oil and it's also related with with civil problems there so there's there's just you never know where it's coming from but you do you need to always be. on guard for these kinds of disruptions and that's that's one of the reasons that the i.a.e.a. was created says richard jeff that you take executive director of the international
welcome back to spotlight i'm al gore not even just a reminder that my guest on the show today is richard jenkins deputy executive director of the international energy agency richard roth let's talk about about russia's policy well there's lots of talk about the red direction gradual red direction of russian crude crude flows from from the west towards asia and first of
all to china how was it seen in the west could it be a reason for for a clash of interests between russia and the west china and the west no i really don't think so and the simple reason is that it's a global market these days the oil market is. a worldwide and. china is where the action is that's where they're growing in consumption china and india are the two primary and the middle east with course they have their own oil so i think it's fully understandable in fact we we anticipate that always city or oil demand will actually decline so it's a natural process china has the demand they're willing to pay the price as they get the oil according to the latest. report i quote the world faces a dire future unless a complete change of course is made to deal with the huge problem of surging energy demand and quit what does the are you
a suggests doing in the winter to avoid the future well i mean you're talking about a dire future in that in the event of surging demand for fossil fuels i mean energy is is life. as population increases economic activity increases and even though we all hope that our ability to use our energy efficiently improves over time we know that rising a rising population as long as that happens means there's going to be rising energy demand the key question is how we supply satisfy that demand right now our energy mix in all countries or almost all countries is heavily focused on fossil fuels and the concern there is that fossil fuels are first of all they're there are supplies limited nobody knows so when will run out but everybody knows that it's a fossil resource and therefore is limited in supply it took millions of years to create the oil and it's going to go away and in hundreds of years so it'll it'll in someday also it's
a dirty fuel. production of oil and gas can be dirty consumption of it is certainly dirty in terms of normal air pollution but particularly i think what we're warning about in that particular passage is that is the prospect of climate change well speaking about again as well actually specialists specially the russian people from gazprom they say that they of course say that again as is more climate friendly than or oil. production and consumption of gas so the i.a.e.a. also says i quoted that the world was potentially entering a golden age of dance with production set to increase by over fifty percent by twenty thirty five well do you think that that really get us is going to replace oil in the end and it will be good for you for a lot of it for the gas competes more more properly actually with coal than with
and then with oil because because gas is used for power generation and in industry and those in those uses it is cleaner than complete it's much cleaner than coal and not only in terms of the normal air pollution that you think of but in. in the key area of emissions of carbon dioxide. natural gas and it's far less about half as much by energy value as cold us so it is a much cleaner fuel than than coal and we sometimes talk over natural gas as a bridge bridging fuel because it can help us while we're still dependent on fossil fuels reduce emissions until we're we have the capability of relying more on the advanced technologies of renewable sources of energy and so on that are that are not emitting at all but. we we can't rely on on natural gas indefinitely because even natural gas does admit some c o two and so over time our energy demand will grow to the point where even natural gas could lead to
global warming and that's why we talk about it as a transition for you why i mention this quote from the i.a.e.a. report is that. we get an impression that he really remains rather skeptical about such things as that is as the renewable sources of energy this is why you're defending them guess the real forecasts all based on an ob the existing well first of all there are scenarios and this scenario has certain certain assumptions and one of the assumptions is that to consumers will welcome gas and that's that's very important right now gas is undergoing a renaissance because the prices come down but is demand increases the price will also increase and there then they'll be a rebalancing of markets so. you know we're it's not that we're skeptical of renewables it's that we just do the arithmetic we recognize the many countries particularly in western europe but other countries around the world including china have have targets for instance expansion of the their renewable industries we feel
that they are committed honestly committed to honoring those targets in they'll do so but we also know that there's a tremendous amount of investment in the existing system and and no country is going to. give up that capital stock before it's time it would just be you know none of us are rich enough that we can afford just to throw away perfectly good equipment and that's one of the reasons that we sometimes worry about what we call technical or technology lock in that if that the coal plants built today will be around for fifty years and so that's why we think it's very important for countries that are serious about this to to. begin and to to actively support the expansion renewables but we just look at at the size of the industry and the amount to the bottlenecks that exist and we figure that it would be very good if new bills to expand say at an average rate of ten percent
a year and given the small role they play now that means it's going to take a long time before they dissipate place fossil fuels it's just a riveting well very soon the movember eight that she leave that to be put in will be so the brits in the launching of this i think is favored project the north stream project which will unload the first gas supply from russia. underneath the baltic sea so to germany and you know that this is this is really a great project well what do you think is the prevailing the prevailing sentiment in the sentiment in europe because on the one hand people want to want an interrupted supply from such as steady supply to be sure in the supply but on the other hand they are worried about the growing dependency on russian gas s.s.o. which we sent will be programming what do you think you know well i think i think you catch it very well. they appreciate russia as a supplier i think most europeans think that russia's been
a reliable supplier over the years in recent years there because of the. issues with ukraine there's been some nervousness and but but i think anybody who who. looks at the at the data will realize that yes russia is dependent on mean yes europe is dependent on russia for supply russia is also dependent upon europe for demands can't yeah and in fact russia has a smaller share of the european market than europe has of russia's exports so you can say that russia is more dependent on europe than europe is dependent on russia except that the one forgoes money if it doesn't make the sale the other way for goes heat in the winter time you'd rather have heat than money so the important thing though is that they have to work together you know no no commercial. transaction takes place and less it's beneficial for both the buyer in the seller
and that's the key well i guess most of the people especially the politicians the businessmen in the unit they understand that what you say is that is that in case of mutual dependency you read dependency is just half of the problem your part is the better than thinks there's the other half of that the same problem there's a there's a joke in the united states that if you if you owe the bank thousand dollars you can't page your problem if you owe the bank a million dollars and you can't pay is the bank's problem right so but why then europe isn't so happy about it's about the sound stream project why isn't your bread the ready to to to throw its weight. one of the answers we get here in russia is it because the ukraine is lobbying against this russian project. not aware of any particular ukrainian lobbying on that score but i suppose it could be true i don't know. i'm just not a position where i would know about that but i think the main reason is normally
when we look at increasing your security one of the simplest ways to do it is increase the diversity of your sources of supply and that can mean diversifying the routes from the same supplier. because sometimes there is an interruption of a single route but the supplier would be perfectly happy to supply from another route but it's also diversifying your suppliers and there's a whole host of countries in that southern area that are potential suppliers of gas to europe. particularly the caspian states but also countries like iraq in the future could be potential so there is a european idea of developing what they call the southern corridor and the i.a.e.a. looks favorably on that but that doesn't necessarily have to come at the expense of other other projects we we don't endorse any particular commercial projects but we do look at diversification in the southern corridor which is an important opportunity for europe to diversify and i think that's why they're looking at it
but to put it into perspective in this golden age of gas study that you you mentioned we see basically an increment in european import demand because their production is declining even though their demand isn't growing very rapidly there import demand will grow on the order of two hundred twenty billion cubic metres per year. over the next twenty years that to put it in perspective that's equivalent to about six pipeline projects maybe a dozen large elegy plants so there's plenty of room eventually for all the projects we're talking about today is just a question of of the timing i was the ambassador american ambassador in kazakhstan when we were working a book on and that's what i tried to explain to people there that you know was not directed against an expansion of the c.p.c. line i told people that will eventually have both and here it is eleven years later and we have the baku jape pipeline and the c.p.c.
expansions been it's been approved so i was right and i think that's what will happen in the gas here in the future thank you very much for being with us was a pleasure having you on the show in just a reminder that my guest today was richard jeni stepanek do you think the director of the internet. and that's it for now from all of us if you want to have your say as part of life or maybe you have someone in mind you think i couldn't see you next time just drop me a line. i'll teach you to dust our union and lets you spotlight into the movie back with more first time comments on what's going on in and outside russia until then stay on our team and take thank you they just.
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tom. out in the cold in new york city police sees it power generators and gasoline canisters from occupy wall street protesters thought he's claiming they may have. anti wall street protests have been going on for almost six weeks now with people showing support all across the globe. nato is said to end its military mission in libya while colonel gadhafi son is in talks with prosecutors that could see him blow the lid on dodgy deals with alliance countries the late dictator's most powerful son saif al islam. and is looking at to surrender himself to the international criminal court where he is wanted for war crimes many nato member states had business dealings with the late libyan leader until protests erupted in the country and they abruptly changed tack. spectacular style following a no expense spared refurbishment it took six years of meticulous work to complete .