tv Cross Talk RT May 15, 2013 11:29am-12:00pm EDT
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choose the access to. hello and welcome to cross talk where all things considered i'm peter lobo giving peace a chance this may or may not be the case when it comes to the fate of syria after almost a year a russian peace plan to end the civil war is being reconsidered the idea is simple no preconditions and all parties have a seat at the negotiating table are the u.s. and its gulf allies serious or is this a ploy to merely intensify the complex. cross-talk
russia syria and israel i'm joined by my guests in washington ariel cohen he's a senior fellow in russian and eurasian studies and international energy security at the heritage foundation and he is a political analyst and a professor at the george washington university right gentlemen crosstalk rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want ariel how well what accounts for the flip flop the american flip flop now they're going for the russian plan or something like that what do you think about that. well winston churchill said that americans can be counted upon to come to the best option after the tried everything else i think the united states missed an opportunity to. reinforce and support moderate. forces the center collapsed we ended up with extremists from the muslim brotherhood all the way to al-qaeda affiliated. job.
up front. these are no good options today in syria and because ball is getting into the fray so the united states is trying to give it a shot it is not a ploy to derail the process unfortunately i want our viewers to understand the united states is not calling the shots on this there are other players as russia there's iran there. are a lot of people cars so yes. this is not something like president obama just pushing the button and everything falls into into its place this is a mess and it's a bloody mess and i hope and i pray for the sake of people in syria that a good solution will be found i'm pessimistic as usual peter you know me but it's the middle east ok neville what do you think about ariel's analysis there are you just as pessimistic. no the opposite i'm very optimistic and
i think if washington and moscow are serious about peace in syria they will have the primacy will play a prominent role bigger than any other nation i think my point of the park chart is crisis and in october november one thousand nine hundred fifty six egypt nationalized the su is can l. the british and the french as the owners of it for for some time objectivity attacked egypt for thirty first one hundred fifty six. in howard who was up for re-election. to the british and the french and nikolai will gun in the prime minister issued an ultimatum against england and france and the two countries were kids sincerely and close enough to end the su is
crisis many people who object to the say that assad is looked like lawsuit in one thousand fifty six but actually despite this similarities there are many points that could be exploited and utilize the folly for a bit outcome for the sake of peace in syria if washington and moscow are on the same wavelength i think we can start a long transition period and the little emphasis on the word of a long transition period because elections would not happen soon in syria you have to have a longer transition period otherwise you would end up in a political stalemate so let's be said better a political stalemate in a war a city area let me go to you is this is a proxy war now who's controlling the proxy it's out of control now there's yes yes it is a proxy war to a great extent bot. what. neat model doesn't address
is their religious factor and the multiple players yes in nine hundred fifty six we had nation states moscow could talk to nasr and washington to talk to paris and london today you have to talk to militia commanders you have to talk to qatar is an iranians it is it is a more chaotic system with many more fanatical players nation states usually a guided by their national interests and in this case i think u.s. and russia are rational players however when you look at these militias be it. or job the. these are not necessarily rational players in many cases these are ideological fanatics.
this complicate the situation very much now but what do you think about that i mean because we had this news report of a military commander a militant eating the heart of a soldier on the ground i mean who's controlling these guys who's controlling these guys off now bill go ahead. this is cannibalism it's very ugly i mean basically it is that they are controlled by. emotions but this should not intimidate to big powers with nuclear arsenals and heavy conventional armaments from stopping and even fully wiping out militias because you know the illusion is that what is going to send us no ties or proxy or nobody is going to use a new and just let me know what is going to use nukes and nobody. soldiers on the ground that's a very that's a very watching them boy i mean they have the have a lot of intelligence agents they have their own clients the have that if you move assad they have israel the can't talk to the proxy agents or the states that are
employing these militias then militias could be wiped out with this so it's crisis actually was a conflict rife with militia playing fighting in sinai and across these two ways banks so i think if there is a syria as the vacation between most go on washington that should start a lot of that terrible political process ordered by many factions can be the militant eyes can be departed and peace see this peace talk can is tough in syria ok and i mean this is such a bloody conflict now who's going to put their guns down who says going to put them down say let's sit around the table have said to me but come on i have i have another i have another and more tragic model to my sorrow because i lived in israel when when that thing was happening and that is a fifteen year long lebanon war there were proxies but there were militias and
there were community has a trip between the christians and the muslims between the groups and others between the sunni and the shia and then syria and israel got involved in the united states got involved so. i am afraid that until the thing burns from within until these people get exhausted nobody is going to threaten a nuclear weapon as charges of the saudis could cool down on the us are they going to cool down on this. they want to say dad could tell you what would be rationally to tell you peter peter you asked a question i answered go ahead i wish i wish i could tell you that the united states could just pick up the phone to the king of saudi arabia and stop saudi support of salafi jihadi. wahhabi factions in that war on fortunately this saudis flush with cash they have so much money just like the
qataris they support their own militia and the qataris support the other militias so you have a confrontation in a proxy war not just between the sunni's and the shias not just between the saudis and the arabians or the qataris and the iranians but between qatar and saudi arabia and a lot of people don't understand that confrontation has nothing to do with the united states it is a local air raid b. and peninsula interests. conflict between brothers it's essentially and that is another factor that that particular conflict is going on and plays out as a proxy war in syria just like there is a proxy war between iran and the saudis on the other hand you know bill do you want to jump in there i think he spelled her and. yes i'm glad also that he pointed out to be
a lebanese civil war because this is video relevant look everyone knows that the conflict is a mess. everyone needs in the middle east oil is not an oil producing country but it's important because it is at the heart of so many crosscurrents in the middle east china a lot resolve the crisis only concerning forth by the russian federation and the united states of america also israel is a player and let me just try to elucidate on the isn't a new goal isn't. said that she's look part to the conflict but the syria in fact actually is it is not for the first time that you take part to a conflict that is unraveling and in neighboring nations and i have two examples to provide to the viewers in one thousand nine hundred ninety king hussein of jordan faced an uprising by the palestinians israel did not intervene but it was hoping
that the hashemite bond market can extend his sovereignty over the palestinians and jordan can be or could be the palestinian state and the conflict could end so here in israel had basically assigned one party to the conflict home if you were hoping for his victory in one thousand nine hundred eighty tool in the middle of the complex the nomination and security and would overlay shuns in lebanon syria deployed missiles in that because valley and. east lebannon menachem begin bombed the missile sites so he it is there that was hoping that i did use the cd and all i could distill to help if i make it on function but in c.d.'s you have a sixty in conflict at asian of conflict and i but i verily a turkish i don't drive really different forms of contender for. any
sayyid. sure any exit come out find inside home they can secure their loyalty so all right gentlemen i have to jump in here we're going to get it was a short break and after that short break we'll continue our discussion on syria state with our. hunger strike despair pushed to the limit. hundred days clearly one hundred kuantan of the detainees are screaming for justice. where is the end for good no.
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please. welcome back to cross talk where all things considered i'm peter lavelle we're discussing the war in syria. ok i'd like to go back to you and talk about israel in all this i mean ok we had a cold war what for forty years the israelis and syria and you know it's it's been there and they've been able to manage it but now we have the case where syria could disappear is that good or bad for israel. i think it's very bad for israel first of all the golan front. enjoyed
a cease fire since nine hundred seventy four the people were not killing each other there was a war in lebanon it was a bloody war israel lost about nine hundred people there which for a small country is a lot of our family lost friends bought at the same time there was a semblance of balance and there was an address when v. syrians from israel's perspective got out of line israeli planes could go in and buzz the presidential palace or destroy a nuclear reactor that president assad was building back in two thousand and six today if it does if it syria disintegrates and there is a strong pro component yeah then israel may be surrounded by al qaeda affiliates what's inside the night. and come us in gaza and hizbullah as long as it lasts and lebanon although i would argue that if syria
goes sunni sooner or later it will disappear well as he knows what it's all about week or is it all about iran and hezbollah ariel not about the side he is about it is about the syrian people and their suffering but at the same time iran stuck its fingers there and iran is the funder and the creator of his ball of the let the head of his mr. has a title of a representative of the iranian supreme leader in lebanon he did survive don't get me tragically elected i don't want to go down this path there now bill go ahead. i think you are oversimplifying d.c.d. and conflict because you see the i would never this integrate for so many reasons and see as such a big historical entity and it could basically it's geography could be defined but it would never disappear because you would have seen an entity one way or the other
or you could have a very or you could have a very weak in syria very weak in syria also that's possibility. this is but this is possible but it is my reply there is no room for to bring command ship like nineteen eighty two of them and so the crisis the cd and conflict now is as zero sum game and although i would conflict and low side is willing to risk it's cation or its defense to dissolve the c.d.i. this is a major problem and mistake by obama he wanted turkey to play a big role but or do gun does not want to need that it is the military and turkey so how come that you are talking about an enlarged conflict heard by some major players are reluctant to be active this is the eighties and the turkeys and gradually the egyptians are villi very much willing to stop and contain the conflict as a matter of fact and another development that is preferred in
a gradual solution ok and the shift is good. gaits a little bill and that bill clinton is all due respect to egypt was all due respect to egypt egypt needs first to put its house in order it's an economic mess it's a political mess and if a solution comes i agree with you it will come from the us and russia talking to iran saudi arabia and qatar as you pointed out correctly israel does not want another war now and what is in israel's. israel's prime concern is for his bollocks not to get there's a long range powerful missiles it was getting when israel decided to strike and these were pinpointed strikes this was not against the syrian population and for that matter it wasn't against the regime or maybe it was in charge of the military it is just making a point that it's there and it's very powerful now bill go ahead well israel was
making a point that. get game changing missiles that's a point. where you're going to react to that bill you want to react to that. yes let me just to continue the discussion in egypt kiddie diffidently is different than hillary because hillary supported the military option and the kitty also is different than obama because obama is indifferent toward the seat in crisis so you have an activist i would i gradually activist american political champion by the secretary of state but i have to jack i suppose acedia to egypt. the united states government would not change. in egypt because because ok i forgot they want to go back several years i want to take care of sorry not till i want to stay with syria here you said you were pessimistic i mean but then that there that's an interesting ploy you can say well we tried peace we try didn't we tried to have
a conference. that's what i meant by ploy in the big program francis are great in a place like the scenery is great it's a great photo op for the respective ministers of foreign affairs the question is is the syrian opposition going to be there did anybody can solve the syrian opposition before they decided to have that peace conference and i also notice the jordanians are. inviting the friends of syria the so-called friends of syria group to amman and it's not clear where the syrian government is going to play so i think this is a good moment to try and find a solution i'm very nervous about it makes three missed sunni. you know. by this are you surprised by any of this giving these people arms some support and money i mean come on i mean you have realized exactly about this for
a year and now it's finally happened wow big surprise well for first of all first of all i think giving arms to people who are of the same pursue ation of the forces that killed american ambassador in libya is the forces that the west supported in libya and without having to listen to any of them are you know really . there's interventions don't work there for bitter what i said in the beginning it's a tragic situation because from my point of view there are no good people there are no good forces to support and if there were good people and good forces the moderate forces in syria with miss that train the obama administration did not go in forcefully and supported the anti-acid forces which you did in that area and it is with arms with boots what how. the first of all you had to understand the field
you had to understand who is who and they did not have a clear idea and i think bill is right president obama is very nervous to commit to yet another big middle eastern intervention and the europeans are weak the europeans have been weak for a long time and the russians don't want to send their troops there so who is going to police it who is going to police it is there going to be an arab force that the syrians will accept as a policing force well maybe if they could stop getting money in arms they would stop fighting that would that's a start well but but then the question is well it's not that they're fighting it's also the issue of the assad regime shooting at its own people and killing its own people let's not put it under the rug right now ok it is a lot and i say we should let me go we're almost out of town and it was it is it it
could done a good idea for the united states to say a leader should go when he can't back it up. no it's not a mistake because i mean america and russia are my two nations and the can be forced to change but as i said earlier and i was interrupted america is looking to the situation this way syria is very unstable and egypt is video on this table so if that is an act of american gold in syria it would be gradual and methodical because you cannot afford having to on a stable situation and they are americans welcome so there is nothing more americans welcome there in syria you know the answer. every have a focus goal in collaboration with the international community they can play a positive role i mean protocol will last three to fulfil all the u.t.s. but again you have to make strategic choices cd as i understand also as egypt and you are looking into or adopting that is another perspective so go slow down when
making changes in these two countries including the future of mr assad. has a good point arial what about assad. well first of all i notice that bill did not say that assad should state. the question is the question is can we come to a solution that will stop the fighting and there will be some kind of a coalition government or technocratic government and i hate to say it but maybe something approaching the government and the system in iraq. people are ready to spend time like well yes but because once you once you get the dictator out and let's face it folks bosher a lot of these a dictator his father is a dictator one of the reasons that there is so much fighting there is that the
majority sunni population does not accept the allawi baath party dictatorship without any legitimacy come of they have wasted their let's you're going to serialism western imperialism in in play again now bill you got the last word go ahead what what what is stated that they say where's the evidence from on the mind you know bill go ahead i think russia is trying to do you have any teeth syria and the best way to do it is jointly with america and by preserving added to the tone and integrity of russia russia is not the sort he has not the former yugoslavia word that the solution of the entities can. peace russia and medicare can play an opposite troll that told the end of the cold war to the atom acutely at having matured diplomacy they can learn to put their silly fallacy in to see if you have run out of time i wish we had a lot more many thanks today to my guests in washington and thanks to our viewers for watching us here are to see you next time and remember prost talk with us.
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