tv Breaking the Set RT November 27, 2013 6:29am-7:01am EST
institute also in washington we have daniel mcadams he's the executive director of the ron paul institute and in bangkok we cross to pepe escobar he's an investigative journalist and author i generally cross talk rules and effective means you can jump in anytime you want and i very much encourage it pepe if i can go to you first in bangkok what do you make of the deal is it historic deal and will go anywhere of course it's historic i'm sure our viewers remember real men the goal to around the neo-cons then years ago before during and after the invasion of iraq bunch of losers real men do deals with their around so this is the number one i would say the only one so far victory for the obama administration it could be the beginning of obama's nixon in china movement but it's a long long shot we have six months ahead of us we're going to have the saudi wahhabi israeli. while i could say link but it's not to link in fact it's an
axis badly disguised axis trying to derail this by all means necessary we're going to have the neo cons trying to the real is going to have a lot of republicans trying to derail that we're going to have a lot of us congress spade by israeli lobby trying to derail it but we have a political will on the part of the obama administration political will in europe which is also very important and political will in tehran rouhani. and of course the so-called reformers around them against the hardliners of basically revolutionary guards but it's going to be. don excuse me did you fact and fasten your seatbelts ok richard this is you know nixon in china analogies being brought up in the media and i tend to agree with pepe this could be the only positive thing we've seen in the obama administration do foreign policy wise in a while but the odds are against him domestically at least at this point what are your thoughts i'm not sure the odds are against and domestically that congress has
gone along with not connecting any new sanctions at least for a while they are now going through the motions of preparing a sanctions resolution but that would be use only if the six months did not result in a longer and it was just a this is just basically a negotiating tactics as a means of warning iran that if he didn't talks do not succeed then more sanctions might follow but i think that the president will get a grace period i mean i'm not sure of this in the store agreement or the nixon and china analogy holds but we just don't know and certainly it's a modest risk for potentially big gain so i think it's i think people are going to give the president the benefit of doubt here for a while ok danielle what do you think about that because the relationship between the united states and iran has been deplorable for thirty three years is this a turning point is it possible i mean should we be afraid to succeed well i think
what's happening is that the media and certainly congress is overselling this what this is a very very early confidence building measure there aren't substantive changes iran is taking some minor symbolic steps the u.s. is releasing the minor amount of money seven billion over the over the next six months half of that is in assets that have been seized i think the media will try to overplay this and the real danger peter is that we're going to go back to i think it was zero six all over again where you had the beginning of some confidence building measures in iran agreed to suspend to observe the additional protocols of the nonproliferation. and in exchange you got no sanctions relief whatsoever so when they suspended their voluntary observation of that additional protocol that was viewed in congress and in the u.s. media as over here they are going at it again so there is a big danger that that the media will sell this as some sort of
a final agreement so if nothing happens in six months and they go back to the status quo then it'll be an additional. room for additional sanctions on iran and pepe if i go back to you in in bangkok israeli prime minister netanyahu says this is a historic mistake but that tells a lot of people that if it's a historic mistake in his opinion it must be a good deal look at the historic mistake is a peavy himself you know he is the mad dog. sometimes least in the middle east everybody knows that then on a lying movement russia china the bulk of the developing world the only one who does know about this us public opinion most of it and all busily us corporate media so he's going to be kicking and screaming like a need for the next six months on a daily basis but seriously the grown ups are paying attention russia and china and that this is something that we should develop in our discussion debate in the long run benefits for the whole of you resham this is.
beginning of the new great game in your asia involving russia china the u.s. iran turkey the real big players is right is the detail in saudi arabia come on it's an acronym is them one hundred percent ok daniel that you want to jump in now go ahead here break in a little bit yeah i just wanted to point out something that pepe said earlier he talked about american public opinion what's interesting just in the last day or so there was a rest news and poll that show that the majority of americans are backing this interim agreement so we might be seeing is a replay of what we saw in that toward the end of the summer with the syria situation where the vast majority of the american people are opposed to what attack it's very possible the americans are tired of this confrontational attitude toward iran and syria and then we may be demanding something different and in that case there may actually be a danger of a backlash and further resentment toward israel if israel continues to do what it's
doing which is sending an army of lobbyists through the halls of capitol hill telling all sorts of horror stories and of you know getting american congressmen and senators to oppose this deal by any means necessary so there may be a danger of a backlash americans are behind this deal with iran they're cautiously optimistic richard it's clearly quite interesting if you look at this interim agreement and neither side gave away very much it seems to me that it's more it's more about trust and it's baby steps of taking trust and it's the best way of diplomacy take a small step the other one takes a small step and you think this is what this six months is really all about because i mean it looks like to some backsliding on capitol hill and he and in the white house wondering if it's really truly possible to get an agreement because we've been told for decades you can't deal with you can't negotiate with a mania and suddenly that's different isn't it. well i think that the way you phrased as why we're having this try you know try before you buy six months that
there are people who are you can't cross the reigning government and therefore you need to take a smaller internment greenman and see how that goes before you create a larger package and i agree that's probably the right tactic. i'm not sure though if we can so easily dismiss the terms i suspect that a lot of what we've seen in the end term agreement would find its way into any comprehensive agreement in terms of increase fair for cation and transparency that what the iranian nuclear activities are in terms of limits on the stand and intensity of iranian enrichment sanctions relief and so on and so i think that a lot of that what we're seeing now would probably be find its way into an interim agreement and of course they can always roll over the interim agreement for another six months if they have to and so on and then you know again if i go back to you in washington it's all of it's all about enrichment because we have some countries in the world that say iran has the right to enrichment and other countries say they do
and so it's there's a small number of countries in the world that has a rand doesn't have the right to enrichment which is it is really nonsensical because they are members of the nonproliferation treaty but you still have people in washington obviously in israel saying the same thing and i want to talk to pepe later about saudi arabia but it's about enrichment daniel well in fact there are very few countries in the world that don't believe you iran has the right to enrich uranium in fact when the us was negotiating the nonproliferation treaty back in the late sixty's the us insisted that article four explicitly provided for the enrichment of uranium and if you read article four and you have any sort of brain you realize that the word production of nuclear fuel for the use of nuclear energy production means enrichment it's not about some ferries coming down and giving it to you so it's it's impossible to read the article for it not see that it provides . richmond richard go ahead jump in go ahead rick i think. thank you i think the
argument is not so much that they're rand didn't have that right it's that iran has taken activities which now call that right into question because you're not supposed to engage in nuclear activities that can lead to a weapon if you're not if you didn't already have a nuclear weapon the time to sign it is because it was signed it's not true and there's argument there rain in activity in the past some indication that they were testing designs for a nuclear warhead for example and that would call into question whether they not put that right of enrichment under suspension at least until more information about their past activities comes to light and safeguards against future activities like that pippi is what do you see it going on in iran i mean how much how much stonewalling can the revolutionary guards for example you know put put a stop on this because we're focusing all on washington right now. yeah for them oh this is this is the most important part the internal situation in iraq i'll be to
run many times i'm in contact with a lot of people in different areas from foreign ministry to hardliners in fact even political prisoners and at that moment pick on census is rouhani one supreme leader ayatollah khamenei gave him a green light and he delivered so this means for the next six months there is going to be no internal opposition but this depends on both sides following what he has proposed in the interim agreement the u.s. respecting their side and the n.d.o. and the europeans of course respecting their side of the bargain and what's going to happen during dinner go see a shift doing these next six months until may two thousand and fourteen if the iranians see that this is going nowhere in terms of respecting their rights to enrich me i was sorry have to jump in here if you know that you were going to go with your brain and then after that short break we'll continue our discussion on iran's state with our team.
meeting with. it was recently revealed that jamie diamond rented out watching him palace and others entertain his close friend tony blair the dinner took place only days before jamie diamond had agreed to give the us department of justice a very small cut mortgage fraud and oh how the penniless peasants outside buckingham palace gates rejoiced at the impossibly large number of thirteen billion dollars jamie. all hailed jamie don't you.
do you think humanity as a whole would back from leaving some parts of the wall g.m. week just to play on the safe side view through biotechnology through research through genetic modification we can give those small holder farmers the opportunity to be able to deal with and survive all of those challenges and i believe they should have all of the tools. and we.
welcome back to cross talk we're all things were considered on peter lavelle to mind you were discussing the nucular deal with the red. ok richard like you go back to you in washington i think it's kind of tantalizing to think what if the. did states in iran and its allies and we have russian the international community actually get a deal a real deal with iran not an interim thing but going beyond it it changes the geo political space in the region i mean we've seen the united states and its allies demonize and marginalized around for decades now this agreement could normalize to win quote unquote in the international community and that's something significant way beyond any kind of nuclear deal yes the logical relationship between iran and the west is that of alignment. the arrangements with one offshore balancer to help
them against close and threats economically the natural part of iran are the west they would export their natural resources oil and etc and receive advanced technology in the west but because of the story and other developments that's the alignment it's been broken so the dominant foreign actors in the russian and then iran economy example are russia and china and so you would logically expect iran to realign with the west in this at a deal could bring that help bring that process that bow but the legacy of history isn't very difficult to overcome. expect to that because realignment because the the the two major countries that are against this is israel and saudi arabia they don't want this realignment at all when this is really what it's all about they want to keep iran isolated and israel probably with saudi arabia would like the united states somebody else to attack iran but it's the likelihood of that happening is getting smaller at least for the time being. yeah and this is not
going to happen this is where the and these are minor players i would like to focus on the major players once again this is the new great game in your asia has been brewing for the past fifteen years now there's a major realignment in sight number one will the obama administration they have until two thousand and sixteen that's very important finally recognize you run as a sovereign independent can through weave their own independent foreign policy we still don't know if that is the case we're going to have a definitive deal next year and then we're going to have russia china and iran three independent eurasian independent foreign policy from the west that's a major development if it happens all right turkey very important i wrote about this last week turkey wants to position itself as the crossroads of energy transit
energy from east to west for that they need iranian guess with no went to sanctions iran will sell even more gas to turkey through turkey to europe this is what the europeans say if you talk to europeans in brussels i've been doing this for fifteen years they always say we need iranian gas but we cannot get it because of american sanctions and russia they have already a strategic partnership with iran china they already have an energy and commercial partnership with commercials going to be even more increased if iran is normalized let's put it this way so the whole arc from southwest asia to east asia is going to change completely this is what the grownups in the room and outside the rooms are waiting daniel this is what pepys talking about is a major realignment here i mean i'm looking at all of our faces here i can see you and you know what we're more or less the same age that kind of alignment is something that's never been thought of you know look being aligned with iran or at
least not be. having iran as the great enemy and this is something that's very new and you know gentlemen ever since the end of the cold war a lot of things have happened the none of us ever expected so daniel detente with iran. yeah but it's by no means certain and i think what's important to remember is the structure of u.s. sanctions against iran some of these sanctions were imposed by executive order therefore president obama can lift them himself some of them are passed as legislation with some limited waivers that obama has some wiggle room but quite a bit of the sentients are written into u.s. law and the president cannot change those that would require congress to change those and i can see a scenario there's a huge danger of the president going over to geneva or wherever and signing a permanent deal coming back home and having congress reject the deal and that would make the u.s. first of all the laughingstock of the world and second of all at that point i think
these view would come into place anyway which is that the international sanctions regime would break down at that point it barely holds together now the u.s. is barely able to hold it together now for all of the reasons that pepe outlined of the world is waiting to have an economic relationship with iran the world needs it it's good for the world so if the deal fails the sanctions regime will break down if the deal succeeds hopefully the sanctions will completely break down as well ok richard let's talk about the role of congress here in the in the israeli lobby i mean how much of a headache is this really going to be for obama because you know there are people who say that they're all powerful other people say they're not as powerful as you think but this issue is very important to the israeli lobby in the united states are they going to throw everything at it. i think we've already seen that's not going to be the case i think you've seen a lot of the members of congress have said that they i mean there where israel's
concerns and then state share these concerns independent of any lobbying what have you there's a lot of people who are very wary about dealing with iran in this and the implications of that but as i said it's a modest agreement it's not if it fails it's not a major change from where we are now and certain so i think the congress as far as i can tell it's going to let the president try try as approach see no sanctions for six months see what happens and now if we face a comprehensive agreement then maybe they'll be a different scenario maybe with a much more name and opposition but i don't see that yet ok pepe you want to jump in go ahead and in thailand to go ahead you know i want to i want to jump ina yet. compliment where our other guests were saying fact i would say that the obama administration and rouhani they have a window of opportunity of three years in fact two thousand and fourteen fifteen sixteen until the next presidential elections in two thousand and sixteen if they
can evolve towards a comprehensive deal and their response little will own bowl sides they will be strengthened to fly u.s. congress new york some republicans parts of the israeli lobby the wahhabi petrodollar lobby you name it in the u.s. and inside iran of course people who are allied with the hardcore factions of the revolutionary guards which add them at the moment they're being called thing by the supreme leader himself but imagine the possibility of the supreme leader dying which is not absurd within the next three years we could probably have a much more lenient leader given even more leeway for rouhani to clinch the deal and if. a company stays in this position for the next three years he gave them a green light. this is for a city own last it's he already said that two days ago in fact if our
sovereign rights are not infringed we are open to all sorts of the negotiations so you know how many you know he's derided the in d.c. as a as a fanatic his not is an extremely rational player he saw that what the government did for eight years was completely absurd it was not working so you know and don't forget your opinion diplomats they are first class diplomats i had some interactions with them they are among the most sophisticated diplomats in the world and i'm sure john kerry would be able to a fast that when they knew he would be talking about his interactions with saudi richard if i go to you in washington what are the biggest stumbling blocks over the next six months for you because when there's going to be more inspections this is iran's as it's going to open up more lowered in richmond and other issues that iran can easily do and be watched what's what who could fill in the monkey wrench what are issues that could derail him during this interim period in your mind. i don't
see the interim period being much of a problem i think more what's going to be the problem is converting it to longer term and that could feed back and negatively affect the interim agreement because it's not clear to me yet has a rand for ever gone the desire the operation of try and richmond to twenty percent are they only going to accept five percent forever are they cannot continue to keep their centrifuges detached even though they've built them and rather than put them into the cycle are they going to adopt the additional protocol can the u.s. remove all the sanctions as daniel pointed out i mean some of them are executive order that's easy but a lot of them. require an act of congress street people i mean all those things they'd have to do and to reach a final agreement and it could be if that looks like they're not going to do that then it will feedback negatively interim but as i said i think the interim by itself it's
a modest effort and therefore i'm not anticipating major problems of execution danny what do you think about the next six months what do we get what do you expect no i think richard makes a good point you know the the danger really as i said earlier is that the media sells it says this is the permanent deal here in iran as richard points out can never go back to enriching to a higher percentage for example for medical isotopes or for other for other means you know the n.p.t. it does not say to what level you're rhenium can be enriched they can rich enrich it is as much as they like they simply cannot divert that enriched uranium for the use in nuclear weapon when he was just happy you know that he really gives a lot word here just want to give pepe the last word here pepe all the while all the while we even meeting is reputed to be this is a good question for ok you know all while you everyone's looking at a rant but it looks like saudi arabia is just going to buy a weapon from pakistan but that doesn't make headlines does it. look the house will
solve this on the road to absolute irrelevance it's going to take maybe what one year two three five they're going to have their arab spring over there in the eastern province much shorter to shiite they're going to have their arab spring but returning saudi students that go back to jeddah and riyadh studying in the west they say this is completely absurd that's really more their knowledge of this country so their days are numbered absolutely and that's why they are so desperate and very very important even beyond that of bush our friend bummed out bush who saw that he would control everything in syria launch a war in syria it was provoking thing to abandon syrian boman irani you name it he's got nothing and now he's even more desperate and now there's going to be geneva two. about syria and january and bombards goes are not going to be there so how's off south by by to learn point thank you very much gentlemen many thanks to
my guests in washington and in bangkok and thanks to our viewers for watching us here at r.t. see you next time and remember cross talk rules. if you're thinking about an alcoholic drink associated with russia it's probably not going to be wine that springs into your head but they've been making it here on the black sea coast for more than two thousand years and there's an industry which really can compete with the best the rest of the world has to offer i've come to meet some of the people growing the greats and to see if i can find out the secret
to. perfect. place to. live. but somehow i. think it's. war is probably the most complex and difficult human activity. of all. locked up. in the phenomenon of friendly fire probably extends back to the invention of gunpowder. just killed a bunch of people you know don't know what they're up there really is there really
us people. reading. this something shoots my brother in the leg not intentional because of it because it was night times four in the morning even the best even the belch shoulders. are going to make mistakes this is this whole idea of brotherhood and author and camaraderie in this sense it was in this context that has absolutely no place. this is the place that has been consecrated to god for almost a thousand of years people jam here twenty some years ago so there you stablished mastic life on the silence. and people feel the love of christ all working. people say you can. come
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