tv Boom Bust RT November 27, 2013 2:30pm-3:01pm EST
cross-talk the un nucular you know i'm joined by my guess we should whites in washington he's a senior fellow and director of the center for political military analysis at the hudson institute also in washington we have daniel mcadams he's the executive director of the ron paul institute and in bangkok we cross to pepe escobar he's an investigative journalist and author i generally cross talk rules and effective means you can jump in anytime you want and i very much encourage it pepe if i go to you first in bangkok what do you make of the deal is it a historic deal and will go anywhere of course it's historic i'm sure our viewers remember real men the goal to around the neo-cons then years ago before during and after the invasion of iraq bunch of losers real men do deals with their own so this is the number one i would say the only one so far victory for the obama administration it could be the beginning of obama's nixon in china movement but it's
a long long shot we have six months ahead of us we're going to have the saudi wahhabi israeli. while i could say link but it's not to link in fact it's an axis badly disguised axis trying to derail this by all means necessary we're going to have the neo cons trying to the real is going to have a lot of republicans trying to derail that we're going to have a lot of us congress spade weight israeli lobby trying to derail it but we have a political will on the part of the obama administration political will in europe which is also very important and political will in tehran rouhani. and of course the so-called reformers around them against the hardliners of basically revolutionary guards but it's going to be. pick. effect and fasten your seatbelts ok richard this is you know nixon in china analogies being brought up in the media and i tend to agree with pepe this could be the only positive thing we've seen in
the obama administration do foreign policy wise in a while but the odds are against him domestically at least at this point what are your thoughts i'm not sure the odds are against and domestically their congress has gone along with not connecting any new sanctions at least for a while they are now going through the motions of preparing a sanctions resolution but that would be use only if the six months do not result in a longer and it was just a this is just basically a negotiating tactics as a means of warning iran that if he didn't give talks do not succeed then the more sanctions might follow but i think that the president will get a grace period i mean i'm not sure of this in the store agreement or the nixon and china analogy holds but we just don't know and certainly it's a modest risk for potentially big gain so i think it's i think people are going to give the president the benefit of doubt here for a while ok dan you what do you think about that because the relationship between
the united states and iran has been deplorable for thirty three years is this a turning point is it possible i mean should we be afraid to succeed well i think what's happening is that the media and certainly congress is overselling this what this is a very very early confidence building measure there aren't substantive changes iran is taking some minor symbolic steps the u.s. is releasing the minor amount of money seven billion over the over the next six months half of that is in assets that have been seized i think the media will try to overplay this and the real danger peter is that we're going to go back to i think it was zero six all over again where you had the beginning of some confidence building measures in iran agreed to suspend to observe the additional protocols of the nonproliferation. and in exchange it got no sanctions relief whatsoever so when they suspended their voluntary observation of that additional protocol that was viewed in congress and in the us media as over here they are going at it again so
there is a big danger that that the media will sell this as some sort of a final agreement so if nothing happens in six months and they go back to the status quo then it'll be an additional. room for additional sanctions on iran and pepe if i go back to you in bangkok israeli prime minister netanyahu says this is a historic mistake but that tells a lot of people that if it's a historic mistake in his opinion it must be a good deal. look at the historic mistake is a peavy himself you know he is the mad dog. sometimes least in the middle east everybody knows that then on a lying movement russia china the bulk of the developing world the only one who does know about this is us public opinion most of it and all busily us corporate media so he's going to be kicking and screaming like a need for the next six months on a daily basis but seriously the grown ups are paying attention russia and china
and that this is something that we should develop in our discussion debate in the long run benefits for i did the whole of you ratio this is the big this is the beginning of the new great game in your asia involving russia china the us iran turkey the real big players israel is a detail in saudi arabia come on it's an acronym ism one hundred percent ok daniel that you want to jump in and go ahead and break in a little bit yeah i just wanted to point out something that pepe said earlier he talked about american public opinion what's interesting just in the last day or so there was a rescue some poll that showed that the majority of americans are backing this in term agreement so we might be seeing is a replay of what we saw in that toward the end of the summer with the syria situation where the vast majority of the american people are opposed to what attack it's very possible the americans are tired of this confrontational attitude toward iran and syria and then we may be demanding something different and in that case
there may actually be a danger of a backlash and further resentment toward israel if israel continues to do what it's doing which is sending an army of lobbyists through the halls of capitol hill telling all sorts of horror stories and of you know getting american congressmen and senators to oppose this deal by any means necessary so there may be a danger of a backlash americans are behind this deal with iran they're cautiously optimistic. richard it's clearly quite interesting if you look at this interim agreement and neither side gave away very much it seems to me that it's more it's more about trust in it's baby steps of taking trust and it's the best way of diplomacy you take a small step the other one takes a small step and you think this is what this six months is really all about because i mean it looks like there's some backsliding on capitol hill and he and in the white house wondering if it's really truly possible to get an agreement because we've been told for decades you can't deal with you can't negotiate with the rain ians suddenly that's different isn't it. well i think that the way you phrased as
why we're having this try you know try before you buy six months that there are people who are you can't cross the reigning government and therefore you need to take a smaller internment greenman and see how that goes before you agree to a larger package and i agree that's probably the right tactic. i'm not sure though if we can so easily dismiss the terms i suspect that a lot of what we seeing in the in chairman agreement would find its way into any comprehensive agreement in terms of increased fare for cation and transparency that what the iranian nuclear activities are and terms of limits on the stand and intensity of iranian enrichment sanctions relief and so on and so i think that a lot of that what we're seeing now would probably be find its way into an interim agreement and of course they can always wall over the interim agreement for another six months if they have to and so on and then you know again if i go back to you in
washington it's all of it's all about enrichment because we have some countries in the world that say when has the right to enrichment and other countries say they do and so it's there's a small number of countries in the world there's a rand doesn't have the right to enrichment which is that is really nonsensical because they are members of the nonproliferation treaty but you still have people in washington obviously in israel saying the same thing and i want to talk to pepe later about saudi arabia but it's about enrichment daniel well in fact there are very few countries in the world that don't believe you iran has the right to enrich uranium in fact when the us was negotiating the nonproliferation treaty back in the late sixty's the us insisted that article four explicitly provided for the enrichment of uranium and if you read article four and you have any sort of brain you realize that the word production of nuclear fuel for the use of nuclear energy production means enrichment it's not about some fairies coming down and giving it to you so it's it's impossible to read the article for and not see that it provides
. richmond ok richard go ahead jump in go ahead rick i think the thank you i think the argument is not so much that there rand didn't have that right it's that iran has taken activities which now call that right into question because you're not supposed to engage in nuclear activities that can lead to a weapon if you're not if you didn't already have a nuclear weapon the time to sign it is because it was signed it's not true and there's argument there rain in activity in the past some indication they were testing designs for a nuclear warhead for example and that would call into question whether they not put that right of enrichment under suspension at least until more information about their past activities comes to light and safeguards against future activities like that. what do you see it going on in iran i mean how much how much stonewalling can the revolutionary guards for example you know put it put a stop on this good we're focusing all on washington right now. yeah for them oh
this is this is the most important part the internal situation or i've been to run many times i'm in contact with a lot of people in different areas from foreign ministry to hardliners in fact even political prisoners and at that moment dick on census is rouhani one supreme leader ayatollah khamenei gave him a green light and he delivered so this means for the next six months there is going to be a normal internal opposition but this depends on both sides following what he proposed in the interim agreement the u.s. respecting their side and the n.d.o. and the europeans of course respecting their side of the bargain and what's going to happen during the negotiations during these next six months until may two thousand and fourteen if the iranians see that this is going nowhere in terms of respecting their rights to enrich i wrote me i was sorry i have to jump in here if
you know that you were going to go with the word train and then ask today actually break we'll continue our discussion on iran stay with our team. please. you know there's one thing that i still can't understand and i don't want to hear good moods but i have this one question when doing this all for you that you had everything that we spanked him so that he gave them all up in the senate to go your way but what for.
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these. welcome back to cross talk we're all things we're considered on peter lavelle to mind you we're discussing the nuclear deal with iran. ok richard going to go back to you in washington i think it's kind of tantalizing to think what if the united states in iran and its allies and we have russian the international community actually get a deal a real deal with iran not an interim thing but going beyond it it changes the geo political space in that region i mean we've seen the united states and its allies demonize and marginalized when for decades now this agreement could normalize around quote unquote in the international community and that's something significant way beyond any kind of nuclear deal yes the logical relationship
between iran and the west is that of alignment. the iranians would wander off shore balancer to help them against close and threats economically the natural part of iran are the west they would export their natural resources oil and etc and receive advanced technology in the west but because of the story and other developments this. lyman it's been broken so the dominant foreign actors in the russian and then iran economy example are russia and china and so you would logically expect iran to realign with the west in this at a deal could bring that help bring that process that bow but the legacy of history isn't very difficult to overcome. speak to that because realignment because the the the two major countries that are against this is israel and saudi arabia they don't want this realignment at all then this is really what it's all about they want to
keep iran isolated and israel probably with saudi arabia would like the united states somebody else to attack iran but it's the likelihood of that happening is getting smaller at least for the time being. yeah and this is not going to happen this is where the and these are minor players i would like to focus on the major players once again this is the new great game in new regime it has been brewing for the past fifteen years now there's a major realignment in sight number one will the obama administration they have until two thousand and sixteen that's very important finally recognize you run as a sovereign independent can through weave their own independent foreign policy we still don't know if that is the case we're going to have a definitive deal next year and then we're going to have russia china and iran three independent eurasian independent foreign policy from the west that's
a major development if it happens all right turkey very important i wrote about this last week turkey wants to position itself as the crossroads of energy transit energy from east to west for that they need iranian guess with no went to sanctions iran will sell even more gas to turkey through turkey to europe this is what the europeans say if you talk to europeans in brussels i've been doing this for fifteen years they always say we need iranian gas but we cannot get it because of american sanctions on russia they have already a strategic partnership with iran china they already have an energy and commercial partnership with commercials going to be even more increased if you run normalize let's put it this way so the whole arc from southwest asia to east asia is going to change completely this is what the grownups in the room and outside the rooms are waiting daniel this is what pepe sucking about as
a major realignment here i mean i'm looking at all of our faces here i can see you and you know what we're more or less the same age that kind of alignment is something that's never been thought of you know look being aligned with the rand or at least not be. having iran as the great enemy and this is something that's very new and you know gentlemen ever since the end of the cold war a lot of things have happened the none of us ever expected so daniel detente with iran. yeah but it's by no means certain and i think what's important to remember is the structure of u.s. sanctions against iran some of these sanctions were imposed by executive order therefore president obama can lift them himself some of them are passed as legislation with some limited waivers that obama has some wiggle room but quite a bit of the sanctions are written into u.s. law and the president cannot change those that would require congress to change those and i can see a scenario there's a huge danger of the president going over to geneva or wherever and signing
a permanent deal coming back home and having congress reject the deal and that would make the u.s. first of all the laughingstock of the world and second of all at that point i think pepys view would come into place anyway which is that the international sanctions regime would break down at that point it barely holds together now the u.s. is barely able to hold it together now for all of the reasons that pepe outlined of the world is waiting to have an economic relationship with iran the world needs it it's good for the world so if the deal fails the sanctions regime will break down if the deal succeeds hopefully the sanctions will completely break down as well ok richard let's talk about the role of congress here in the in the israeli lobby i mean how much of a headache is this really going to be for obama because you know there are people who say that they're all powerful other people say they're not as powerful as you think but this issue is very important to the israeli lobby in the united states
are they going to throw everything at it. i think we've already seen that's not going to be the case i think you've seen a lot of the members of congress have said that they i mean they're wary of israel's concerns in that state share these concerns independent of any lobbying or what have you there just a lot of people are very wary about dealing with iran in this and the implications of that but as i said it's a modest agreement it's not if he fails it's not a major change from where we are now and certain so i think the congress as far as i can tell is going to let the president try try as approach see no sanctions for six months see what happens and now if we face a comprehensive agreement then maybe it'll be a different scenario me with a much more name and opposition but i don't see that yet ok pepe you want to jump in go ahead pepe in and in thailand to go ahead you know i want to i want to jump in yet. compliment our other guests were saying fact i would say that the obama
administration and rouhani they have a window of opportunity of three years in fact two thousand and fourteen fifteen sixteen until the next presidential elections two thousand and sixteen if they can evolve towards a comprehensive deal and their response to call will on both sides they will be strengthened to fly u.s. congress new york some republicans parts of the israeli lobby the wahhabi petrodollar lobby you name it in the u.s. and inside iran of course people who are allied with hard core factions of the revolutionary guards which add them at the moment they're being called thing by the supreme leader himself but emagine the possibility of the supreme leader dying which is not absurd within the next three years we could probably have a much more lenient leader given even more leeway for rouhani to clinch the deal and if. a company stays in this position for the next three years
he gave them a green light. this is for a city own last it's he already said that two days ago in fact if our sovereign rights are not infringed we are open to all sorts of the negotiations so you know how many you know he is derided the in d.c. as a as a fanatic his not is an extremely rational player he saw that what the ahmadinejad government did for eight years was completely absurd it was not working so you know and don't forget your opinion diplomats they are first class diplomats i had some interactions with them they are among the most sophisticated diplomats in the world and i'm sure john kerry would be able to a pass that when they knew he would be talking about his interactions with saudi richard if i go to you in washington what are the biggest stumbling blocks over the next six months for you because when there's going to be more inspections this is
iran's says it's going to open up more lowered in richmond and other issues that iran can easily do and be watched ok what's what who could fill in the monkey wrench what are issues that could derail him during this interim period in your mind. i don't see the interim period being much a problem i think more what's going to be the problem is converting it to longer term and that could feed back and negatively affect the interim agreement because it's not clear to me at has a ran for ever gone the desire the operation of try and richmond to twenty percent are they only going to accept five percent forever are they cannot continue to keep their centrifuges detached even though they've built them and rather than put them into the cycle are they going to adopt the additional protocol can the u.s. remove all the sanctions as daniel pointed out i mean some of them are executive order that's easy but a lot of them. require an act of congress street people i mean all those things
they'd have to do and to reach a final agreement and it could be if that looks like they're not going to do that then it will feed back negatively interim but as i said i think the interim by itself it's a modest effort and therefore i'm not anticipating major problems of execution danny what do you think about that next six months what do we get what do you expect and i think richard makes a good point you know the the danger really is as i said earlier is that the media sells it says this is the permanent deal here in iran as richard points out can never go back to enriching to a higher percentage for example for medical isotopes or for other for other means you know the n.p.t. it does not say to what level you're rhenium can be enriched they can rich enrich it is as much as they like they simply cannot divert that enriched uranium for the use in nuclear weapon when he was just happy you know that he really gives a lot which were here just want to give people the last word here pepe all the
while all the while we even media is reputed to be this is a good question for ok you know all while you're looking at iran but it looks like saudi arabia is just going to buy a weapon from pakistan but that doesn't make headlines does it. look the house will solve this on the road to absolute irrelevance it's going to take maybe what one year two three five they're going to have their arab spring over there in the eastern province much or it's a shiite they're going to have their arab spring but returning saudi students that go back to jeddah and riyadh studying in the west they say this is completely absurd let's really modernize this country so their days are numbered absolutely and that's why they are so desperate and very very important even beyond that of bush our friend bummed out bush who saw that he would control everything in syria launch a war in syria it was provoking him to abandon syrian born to run you name it he's got nothing and now he's even more desperate and now there's going to be geneva two
. about syria and january and bombards goals are not going to be there so how's off south by by pushing a deal that point thank you very much gentlemen many thanks to my guests in washington and in bangkok and thanks to our viewers for watching us here at r.t. see you next time and remember cross talk rules. will. say it was recently revealed that jamie diamond rented out blocking him tallis and other to entertain his close friend tony blair the dinner took place only days before jamie diamond had agreed to give the us department of justice
lock up. in the phenomenon of friendly fire probably extends back to the invention of gunpowder. to kill a bunch of people you know don't know if they're friendlies they're really us people. reading. this something shoots my brother in the leg not intentional because it is because it was night time for in the morning even the best commanders even the mesh soldiers. are going to make mistakes this is this whole idea of brotherhood and author and that and camaraderie in this sense it was in this context it has absolutely no place. this is the plays that has been consecrated to god for almost a thousand of years. old team here twenty some years ago so he established
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be in the. day before the e.u. summit to wood's eastern european partners public figure in ukraine refuses to die down as the government as it takes and signing up to trade deals also. people with disabilities people with limited abilities with a hundred days to go before the paralympians take over the sochi winter games managed to turn his life around on the ice rink. also i thought in this morning italian senators expelled silvio berlusconi from parliament for tax fraud and a vote that the political public political veteran condemns calling it a day for mourning for democracy. and a crackdown on terror in the russian capital where police say they've arrested a group of heavily armed islamic extremists.