tv Boom Bust RT May 9, 2019 8:30am-9:01am EDT
in the middle of this in between a rock and a hard place with iran on the one side and the us on the other. on a park oh bring this right up to date on the thank you very much. for this hour but let's just before we go take a look at some live images from dawn tallent the immortal regiment march bringing hundreds of thousands just look at that scene right. now one of the main thoroughfares. the capital streets making their way to red square this is the seventy fourth anniversary of victory marking the end of the second world war remembering their relatives with photos with other items out there. as well of course what have worn through for so many people coming back twenty seven million losing their
lives by some estimates we will be keeping a very close eye on developments because this march is expected to run for the next number of hours keep it here on r.t. international. this is broadcasting out around the world and covering the world of business and finance and the empath. and in washington we're glad you're on board straight ahead on today's program. the trade war rages on markets are quaking and the effects are far reaching across our world professor richard wolfe and our financial both limits on him to sift through the latest shipping situations. bank is back in
the hot seat and they could fire from the shareholders over. recent scandals our correspondent alex mahela bench takes us through what's up banks may be facing just after the major collapse of a major merger and also bad news for a big client again as a major exchange. and forty million dollars worth of crypto currency has gone missing apparently analysts. say the details of the highs and what this could mean one market going forward all of that directly to get some headlines let's go. a grim warning on the risks of rising trade tensions leads our globe report today is the european commission warns again about the risks of the brics and a possible us china trade war could deliver a major shock to the european union's economy the commission has downgraded their forecast for konami growth in twenty nineteen by half a percentage point to one point four percent the commission also revised growth
forecast for individual e.u. nations including europe's largest economy germany germany's predicted growth for this year was cut also by a half percent to one point eight percent meanwhile the risks of the u.s. china trade tension tensions and talks orleans more con doing to more conflict are increasing it was confirmed this morning that u.s. president will as threatened increase terrorist on the first two hundred billion dollars of chinese imports from ten percent to twenty five the u.s. will also impose a twenty five percent tariff on all chinese imports not covered by his latest spree this by the last minute offensive from the u.s. and talk that seem to be headed for an agreement china's commerce minister said on tuesday that vice premier league will still attend trade talks in washington on thursday and friday adding china will respond in kind to the increased terror. as the vice president for mayor prepares for his u.s. trip the trombone ministration has come the paperwork to raise chinese tariffs on friday according to the wall street journal the office of rubber light hisor the
u.s. trade representative the tears are now being raised due to quote lack of progress in the trade talks so daniel right now these trade talks this is really an act of aggression from the u.s. party and i mean you're negotiating a billion dollars worth of trade deals that could impact china and the u.s. for decades to come so this really isn't something like a book report that you can just put a deadline on friday and this is the thing that we've discussed previously on the show you know any sort of negotiating manual that you could get from an airport bookstore would tell you this is probably not the way you want to do a really major negotiation exactly you don't issue threats and deadlines like this so here to help us secure the shipping stalemate and what it means around the world we're happy to welcome just so hard the managing partner at our financial and professor richard wolffe the author of democracy at work a cure for capitalism welcome to the program. glad to thanks for having me so jeff let's start with the market reaction tensions are high in the vic the spiking and
we see investors make a flight to safety ahead of friday's deadline the yield on the benchmark ten year treasury notes fell to two point four six percent and the yield on a thirty year is also lower two point nine percent investors obviously want to hedge and minimize their exposure in the volatile equity markets how are people handling this. i don't think they're handling it very well it seems like it's a really emotional reaction you know we've got a couple tweets from the president and stocks tank and then he says oh now china is coming back to the table and then stocks start to rise again so it seems like a very emotional reaction. and richard china right now is refusing to bow to pressure despite facing challenging headwinds in april they saw a surprise drop in exports of two point seven percent as companies face the new harsh reality and many companies are especially vulnerable to these terrible increases as it threatens their cash flow and liquidity companies in china have now defaulted on five point eight billion dollars worth of the mess to bonds in the
first four months this year more than three times the total for the same period of twenty eighteen what's happening here. well i think you have a number of problems that the chinese economy has but i think it is a terrible miscalculation both of mr trump and of the people in the stock market to react in this up and done saying sort of way mr trump is playing mostly to his political base in this country he doesn't seem to even understand what it is he keeps saying we put tariffs in the trainees pay for them no they don't when the united states puts a tower of its americans who pays for it and there's americans who suffer as a result the chinese have come out of a hundred fifty years of being under the gun of western colonialism that is now become the second biggest economy in the world they're not going to knuckle under to this kind. boasting and this kind of bullying as you said at the beginning this
is no way to put in dumped a real negotiation it might be good theater politically at all but the chinese are not about to fall over and play dead and therefore this has the risk for all of us of spinning out of control as neither side can back away and then you have the real consequences rather than just theater and jeff you mentioned some of the market reactions here let's put some specifics up on the screen there so orient us there is and you say that you think people are reacting well to this maybe this is a overly panicked response but that gets to some of the psychological factors here that i'm wondering about there's panic possibly but also what about a chance that even if the u.s. and china reach an agreement a certain baseline of uncertainty about the u.s. position on so many things and about the world economy could linger even if this specific trade fight were resolved. you know you see
a lot of uncertainty in our markets that's when you see the markets react the way they did just a simple tweet so you know last year in two thousand and eighteen the trade war really started to ramp up but the markets settled down and we found our new normal this is no different trade deal is going to be reached one way or another and we'll find a new normal look twenty nineteen we had a very strong start the first quarter of this year was one of the record breaking corridors so once this calms down we're going to find that new normal and i think everything will come back up by the end of the year so as long as that vice premier shows up to do these negotiations i think we're in a good place. ok so showing up is ninety percent of the game here is that right jeff. well who knows if he's actually going to show up by think if he doesn't show up then we've got something to really worry about as long as he shows up and takes it seriously i think they'll come to an agreement or at least postpone but you know when trunk draws a hard line and says hey friday twelve
o one we're jacking up the tariffs you know he's not going to back down from that this is classic trump negotiation style so when you see him come out and draw that hard line and say publicly this is what we're going to do and he's playing hardball with the chinese i don't expect him to retract that statement and richard on the other side of this possibility here if the trade reform process with the u.s. and china fails what would be the net effect for both economies and for the world economy and if in that scenario would it be possible that the trade frictions which are or were already significant between the u.s. and e.u. would get put back on the front burner once china is taken off the table. yes i think the risk if it seriously goes on i agree with your other guest that in all likelihood this is theater and they'll reach an agreement but if they don't and even if they do the uncertainty you mention is now a factor you don't know with that character like mr trump whether he won't reinvent
this problem a week a month or a year from now the uncertainty is already baked in the europeans have their own problems with bragg's it and so on if there's a growing tension between the united states actual or potential everybody just world trade continues to contract and that's going to cost everybody that's why we have a world trade organization that's why we make agreements in order to avoid this kind of war of all against war that mr trump has only and that we're going to have to live with the consequences for. turning back to you you mentioned that with the market will get back to new normal and i'm sure all the. traders can and we definitely can adjust to but what about the companies like the tariffs are actually going to impact the business it's going to impact our free cash flow is going to impact their dividend yield and eventually to the shareholders and the owners so how can companies pitot simply adjust to this normal so i think one thing we have
to keep in mind is trump has a tendency to grade his presidency based on the stock markets you know he loved nothing more that when he got elected and the markets were taking and then they just shot up right away so i think as we start to enter this reelection campaign and they do this twenty twenty campaign season we're going to see trump become a little more sensitive to what he puts out and how it affects the market he needs that market to go up so if he starts to sense oh no the markets are having too negative a reaction he's going to come back with some positivity i mean look at what just happened this week he tweets he said you know all the deals are going to be. threatening with new tariffs and the markets tank so then what does he do he turns around and he comes back with a note of positivity oh no they're sending their top negotiators will reach a deal don't worry about it as we enter the two thousand and twenty season he's
going to need these markets to go up if he wants to have a chance. very good insight from both of you thanks for joining us professor wolff father of democracy at work and jeff soha managing partner at arc financial thank you both. thank you. huawei c.f.o. among one soul is expected to appear in vancouver courtroom on wednesday for a hearing about her potential extradition to the u.s. mon was arrested last december at the vancouver airport and the u.s. requests that she be extradited for allegedly violating economic sanctions against iran canada is now leaning on the u.s. to help settle this dispute with china as china has upped the pressure on them halting canadian canola imports and suspending permits of two major pork producers canada now risks significant economic damage and has no other choice than to turn to the u.s. who is also facing its own struggles with china the founder and c.e.o.
of huawei says that he believes that there is a possibility that the rest of his daughter is politically motivated and that she may be a hostage in the u.s. china trade war in december president trump threatened to intervene in a men's case if that would help secure a trade deal with china. turning to another telecom related controversy a planned merger between broadband provider t p g and vodafone australia has been blocked by the australian competition and consumer commission the decision by the a c c c was accidentally disclosed by the regulator late tuesday the c.e.o. of vodafone australia inaki baroda a laci expressly irritated calling the a.c.c. c.s. move quote a very surprising decision and a very surprising way it was communicated the regulator said a merger would have reduced innovation and increased prices for consumers a c.c.c. chair rod sims said the proposed merger between t.v.
and vodafone is likely to be substantially less than the competition and supply of mobile services because a proposed merger would preclude t.p.t. entering as the fourth mobile network operator in australia. time now for a quick break but hang here because when we return deutsche bank is back in the hot seat as it can face fire from shareholders over its recent scandals correspondent alex mail and its takes us through what the bank may be facing just a few weeks after the collapse of its major merger plus bad news for a major change has been hacked forty million dollars worth of. cuts are currently at less than one doesn't delve into the details of the hike and what this could mean for declining market. and as we get a break here the numbers at the closing bell.
after the previous stage of my career was over everyone wondered what i was going to do next. different clubs. home fields where everything is familiar. i wanted a new challenge and the fresh perspective i'm used to surprise. you. i'm going to talk about football not for you or else you can think i was going to go. by the way what is the. recent report from the u.k.'s foreign office highlights in detail the persecution of christians around the world in the middle east the cradle
appreciated the christians face extinction. politically incorrect the west foundational religion. welcome back turning back to germany the latest figures from the german statistics office and ministry of the economy indicate europe's biggest economy is doing slightly better than expected the numbers show german industrial output increasing by point five percent in april however half a percent is also now the overall growth rate officially is expected in germany for twenty nineteen meanwhile industrial orders for mark showed a weaker than expected increase after a sharp drop in the two previous months bright spots in the latest report included
construction and consumer goods. two of the most influential. in the world are now recommending that deutsche bank shareholders voice vote against the banks management and supervisory boids the frankfurt based investment banking company has faced a number of challenges and everything years and the coming annual general meeting could mean trouble for people's and. joins us in toronto with maher welcome alex. thank you so tell us both glass lewis are recommending that deutsche bank shareholders send a message loud and clear to the company's management what's going on. well the g.m. is slated for may twenty third and it could be a dramatic affair if these shareholders actually agree with these companies who are the shareholders advisory firms these firms have zeroed in on a couple issues with deutsche bank that have been plaguing the bank for years and
there's a legal issues as well as business issues and here's a graphic this is the sort of tells you the whole entire story the bottom line let's always look at the bottom line in the past year the stock the. stock has dropped forty percent or more as a dramatic drop in share prices and of course if the shareholders actually listened to these firms that would be a mass of bent this is not something that happens very often especially that this type of advice doesn't come from these firms very often so they mean business this time around also let's look at deutsche bank beyond the stocks they've been plagued with scandals and also accusations of bribery and let's not forget another very important point they were in talks with commerce bank which is the second largest bank in germany to merge to make something wonderful and that did not happen that whole the whole attempt just fell through the ground and disappear. right and we
know we alluded to that and show but this failed merger with commerce bank it was fairly major can you can you give us some more detail on that. the absolutely i mean this is a big part of the whole of question this was supposed to be earth shattering and positive when it went into the other direction and this happened just weeks ago that these talks when under and you're looking at germany's two largest by banks merging not only would that have been to these two banks that are suffering we're not only for them would that have been great news to get together and do something it would be great news for the whole banking community in europe which is quite fractured so this could have not only lived to germany this could have lifted europe as a whole but the gross integration never happened and they say the excuses here not only excuse i mean the fact of the matter it was it was written that layoffs would happen and also the mergers would have been very costly and the layoffs are something that the german public took very seriously there were
protests against that the the cost of the merger well that's the excuse from the banks themselves but listen to this this is the this is a huge part if these two banks merged they would have commanded over two trillion u.s. dollars in assets one hundred forty thousand staff and thirty million german clients so the failure to put these banks together obviously for deutsche bank this was a big deal and when it comes to shareholders they didn't like it one bit and of course now they see a bank that most likely won't be turning around any positive feedback or any positive. positive monetary turnaround when it comes to their stock for quite a while so stands right now for shareholders they are either very disappointed in bank or they're walking away. i take correspondent alex thank you so much. in other germany. related news manufacturing conglomerate siemens has announced
that it will separate its gas and power division corporate leadership says the move will advance the goals of quote clearly focusing its portfolio one day nema growth markets and efficiently efficiency gains as part of its vision twenty twenty plus restructuring plan the newly independent unit unit would have annual sales above twelve billion euros and plans include a stock listing for the company by september of two thousand and twenty siemens will reportedly retain a minority stake in the spin off company plans also include the cutting of ten thousand jobs in siemens or remain in core divisions to be more than offset by the creation of twenty thousand five hundred more siemens stock would have which has been trending higher this year jumped by almost five percent on news of the spinoff . finance one of the wall of the biggest crypto currency exchanges was hacked on
tuesday at about seven thousand declines valued at forty million dollars were stolen the attack was reported as a coordinated effort that was well orchestrated by through multiple seemingly independent accounts the hackers were able to obtain a large number of user a.p.i. keys to factor codes and other information finance is still investigating the breach not ruling out the possibility that there may be additional infected accounts the hack was directed towards by nancy's hot while it went on there only was two percent of its holdings were stored this is somewhat reassuring but interestingly enough the seven thousand records that were stolen were all transferred there a single transaction. came out with issued an apology and reassures everyone that finance will cover the incident in full and no user funds will be affected this will be coming out of its secure asset fund for users a fund that was actually created for extreme cases such as this one the fund has enough money in order to cover this. losses in entirety and no outside help will be
needed here to give us a late. sense one welcome. thanks for having me on so this was a very unfortunate incident as finance had such a half dollar reputation and as one of the say fifteen us to trade on however there are some odd details in this entire case all seven thousand coins were transferred out of finance in a single transaction which means that they somehow bypassed finances securities tax so all of this would mean that this guy is very sophisticated and then they send all into a segment address so why would someone send forty million dollars to a segment address where the funds can't be spent. well the idea i think so far that what we're learning throughout the day is that where the funds were sent to the sec with address it's continuing to be moved around so throughout the day today those funds have continued to be redistributed and moved to smaller accounts of smaller wallets and that's essentially how you conduct yourself if you've stolen a large sum of money right whether it's in the crypto currency world or in. dollars
you essentially want to continue to move that money to other accounts in order to hide where you are so there have been folks on twitter actually all throughout the day who have been tracking where these new accounts are the new ball that's are and the smaller increasingly smaller amounts where they're being kind of splintered off to it's been a very interesting thing to kind of watch happen and as you pointed out kristie i mean we're talking about a situation here where essentially these hackers i'm assuming it's more than one were pretty sophisticated in how they did this and they were able to get through the layers of security which should have set up alarms that so much was being removed at one time and they got it out first so it has revealed some flaws and by nancy a security system now let's talk about the response to this see if he was fear is that this happened and he apparently wanted to take over the entire block chain and cancel the transaction he openly colluded and spoke with crypto mining pools like that main to reverse the transaction and it is hypothetically possible to roll back through the fifty one percent attack force easy to cancel the transactions he would
need to convince a couple mining pools to agree and work with an alternate version of starting from just before the attack happened but that's that's kind of crazy right. it's pretty crazy there is no way that was going to happen what it did do though was it kind of triggered a very visceral response from the big community throughout the day today of people talking about this because obviously something being impossible and being impractical are two very different things it's not impossible i mean it's not a true rollback so for viewers who don't really understand this world it's not like cancelling the transaction through a credit card where you simply stop the transaction and send funds back you you essentially lose these funds it's more what's called a real board which means that as christy was saying there would be kind of a new block chain splintered off from here and then those funds would disappear or go to minors and the new funds would be created so it's not going to happen i mean there was the response to it was very very negative and if nothing else consider
the fact that in order to do something like this i mean you would essentially be challenging the stability of the entire block chain ecosystem which is one hundred billion dollars market cap and i think there's just no there's no way that people looking at this would say this is a good idea also if we do have to remember that while forty million dollars is a lot of money this is by no means the largest had that's taken place of a crypto currency exchange we had one in twenty sixteen for what it was twenty fourteen excuse me four hundred seventy three million and in two thousand and sixteen for seventy two million so to do this now would be i think a lot of people would see it as heresy yet i thought that it was actually really interesting that steve even mention it and hire mention this because this actually challenge as far as a centralized currency. absolutely it does and you would it would require the help of miners so what was being pitched was this would be a quote unquote decentralized way of doing this but it would be
a disk decentralized way of central. yeah just there was a lot of negative reaction to it far more than i think he was expecting to see it by the way c.z. came back and said oh no i don't want to do this and he listed four reasons for not doing it including you know propping up the stability of bitcoin and all that kind of thing and not causing problems for the image of the court he didn't even talk about the cost by the way the cost to do this reorder when actually be higher than it would be to return those forty million dollars it would actually be more expensive than that so it would actually be a. negative approach in terms of the cost of doing it. yes i think that this would actually like an amazing return rally and it's actually it's speak to the strength of the overall market that this has barely had an effect on it and actually trading marion i think just below its high that six thousand dollars. now less than one thank you so much for your time. christy thank you. and that's
it for this time you can catch boom bust on direct t.v. channel three twenty one dish network channel or streaming twenty four seven on clue t.v. the free t.v. channel one thirty two. or you can always catch us at youtube dot com slash boom bust r.t. . this and petersburg international economic forum is a unique event in today's business world. over the last twenty one years the forum has become a leading global platform for discussing the key economic issues facing russia emerging markets and the world thousands of business community members attend
a forum to address today's financial issues. watch a special forum coverage on r.t. . seriously folks go through a period of sort of the i suppose it's first blood if. you will boil to the minute that it was and i go to the. loser because its appeal is up all of the good of that all you want to go to the brink of the know that it's a liberal socialist that means that you'll know paul. enough well it was pretty good way to lose a. lot of what you say which could go along with. but i. mirrored to you. your money you don't need to store the lead here so my look for mood should bears are doing the clue that you're kind of story some are
going to. brush marks the seventy fourth verse three of the end of the second world war i was must of crotch marched through central moscow these are live scenes right now in the russian capital photos of loved ones along many people's we'll go live to our correspondents and many sections all of the routes in moments meanwhile in red square earlier.