tv Boom Bust RT December 12, 2019 8:30pm-9:00pm EST
none of you had checked on. the football team. i knew a little known to this misfit out in 92 when the. who would you hire the moody tried to use in their. project management project hired and then. one of the meet you has on them. so this is boom bust broadcasting around the globe uncovering the world of business and finance in the impact on us all and been sworn and i'm christiane washington
here's a look at what's on deck today. i believe production problems at the rim factory may have contributed to these 2 tragic crashes of the. following 2 down the crashes involving the boeing $737.00 max a whistleblower has raised the alarm in congress and our national regulatory attorney miles advisers on hand to break down the developments and we'll bring you up to speed on the fate of the plane's flight but following a spate of controversy peloton stock has taken a little bit of a dip like a $1000000000.00 worth we're going to take a deep dive into the stocks performance and whether the firm can stand up to scrutiny with the pack show today so let's go right in. and we begin with the u.s. china trade talks in the fact that thursday president trouble is meeting with traded visors to figure out next steps why because at this point it looks very unlikely that a phase one deal will be done before december 15th and so the big question becomes will the trump administration allow $160000000000.00 in new tariffs on. china to
kick in or will they delay so far the negotiations between the 2 sides have failed to produce deals on agricultural purchases by china and tariff rollbacks by the united states so the question now is whether delay will kick in because the markets well let's face it they are closely watching what is happening here and they are bracing for a big drop if those additional tariffs kick in some analysts believe that the trump administration will delay these tariffs by at least 90 days but others claim the traffic going to ration may actually let these tariffs take effect in the currently preparing their spin on that so kristie i think that's highly unlikely that the trouble going to ration would allow that to happen because again look trump is a pretty good job of puppet tearing the markets every time they start to drop he seems to say something to bring about if you will be able to do that if he allows these tariffs to kick in absolutely not especially since in the latest survey they're saying that 3 fourths of the u.s. companies they have absolutely no backup plan if these additional tests kick in they have no other alternatives for in terms of managing supply chain manufacturing are moving their production elsewhere outside of china so given that they have
absolutely no backup plan they are all lobbying trump and trying with all the actions and everything he is under tremendous pressure to get some sort of resolution done whether it's piecing to them or getting something signed or rolling these tears back like china wanted and again that the end of the day if we hit the 15th and those tariffs kick in it's going to have an enormous impact on the chinese economy but it's also have an impact here in the united states on manufacturers here as well so i think what the market's kind of hanging on every word now late word today is that the trial ministration is looking at going ahead moving forward with a delay of some kind right that's what it is looking forward and that has given the markets a little bit of hope a little bit of a breather but the markets don't forget it has are going pricing in far as aleutian on the 15th right so the markets f. anything this is just a little backstop to drop all right we'll keep an eye and see what happens as. apple's annualized 28 to come percent decline in the 3rd quarter or so apple saying to its lowest sales level in china for 5 years since the launch of the i. fallen in
love and families total shipments in china are down 7.4 percent as aggressive competition from local chinese manufacturers took advantage of the trade war and growing patriotic sentiments this is expected to worsen in the looming december 15th deadline that could increase cost by almost $70.00 per unit apple will have a difficult time pushing through tariff related price increases to consumers without impacting demand while i now has a record of 42 percent market share in china with vivo and shalmi coming in 2nd 3rd and 4th place respectively and apple now fell to 5.2 percent market share down from 7 percent last year in addition the domestic brands launch long awaited 5 g. service plans in october giving users access to super fast data speeds and connectivity apple on the other hand still does not make an i phone that can connect to 5 g. networks. significant news surrounding the boeing 737 max whistleblower reports show that the government in the us this after the 1st 737 max crash last fall foul of the jets were a significant risk for future crashes but the f.a.a.
did not ground those planes until after a 2nd one fell from the sky 5 months later the 2 crashes were a lie in the air jet which crashed into the java sea in october of 2018 and then an ethiopians airline crash in march between those 2 crashes 346 people died so here's the new scandal the f.a.a. document released in december of 2018 only 2 months after the 1st crash predicted that there would be more than 15 additional deadly crashes of the macs over its lifetime one of the whistleblowers at pearson is a former boeing employee who worked on the $737.00 x. program and said that he urged managers to shut down the production lines because of mistakes and cut corners pearson also says those recommendations were ignored. informally warned boeing leadership in writing on multiple occasions specifically once before the line your crush and again before the ethiopian airlines crash potential airplane room. due to the unstable operating environment within the
factory these warnings were ignored. meanwhile china says it has important concerns about design changes to the boeing 7 to 37 max aviation regulator weighed in for the 1st time on thursday after months of public silence from china china was the 1st country to ground the 737 max in march after the 2nd plane crash before it could fly in china again the 737 mast would need to be recertified and pilots given comprehensive and effective training so let's go deeper on the story with international regular. words. so let's start off 1st with china 1st public comment on the buying something that month in months so how likely is that that the $737.00 maxwell ever fly again in china. well i think it's going to be highly unlikely i mean as you pointed out they were the 1st country to ground the 737 max primarily because they never got a straight answer from either the f.a.a.
or from boeing and when we move fast forward to today these important concerns are important concerns about design and they've only asked for 3 things and i believe you said a couple of that money is pilot re certification is one upgrade in product design. is 2 and also they want the 2 crashes to be thoroughly investigated and unless those conditions are met we won't even go past the 1st step to see these planes fly again in china now what's really interesting is that boeing has a plan in china boeing produces $730.00 seven's in china right now that's halted and right now air bus which is boeing's largest competitor in china has a joint venture with comac which is the commercial aircraft corporation of china to produce basically a clone of the arabs $329.00 so i think it's not only the sort of regulatory design
challenges i think there's some financial items that the chinese are also considering regarding it and they may want to choose to partner with arab us over boeing which would pretty well prevent us from seeing the $737.00 max is flowing again over chinese airspace and so miles this issue of the whistleblower it's pretty significant here so let's go back to that for a minute it appears that the biggest issue here is the relationship between boeing and the f.a.a. which is not does not only seem to be effectively regulating boeing instead they appear to be allowing. knowing the kind of call the shots here the fact that he had been warned about this their own findings said 15 of these planes will go down and they didn't pull them. absolutely and i've spoken on this program again about the antiquated system of certifying aircraft in the united states this is a system that goes back to the $950.00 s. and primarily the aircraft manufacturer certified themselves and until we see that
stop and the 2 we see the revolving door of f.a.a. officials going to billing and other airlines you're not going to get a really effective and robust compliance system and what's really interesting is you know when he was before congress testifying he was he was giving a specific example of the rudder design which is 50 years old and he went to the f.a.a. and the f.a.a. said sure you know we'll take a look at it we agree with you and when it came to certify. the rudder design the f.a.a. did nothing so again we see a situation where the f.a.a. really has to be like their european counterparts. and what they do in europe is they have the agencies certify the aircraft and so the manufacturers doing it so you can see that you can't really sell for regulate yourself in this type of situation now real quick southwest airlines now that they have reached
a confidential compensation agreement with boeing for a portion of the projected financial damages due to the grounding of the $730.00 psi max southwest says that they will share a portion of that settlement with employees american and united are still negotiates out amendment so how do these settlements affect boeing shareholders. and what's really interesting is just recently the board of directors of boeing announced a dividend increase and they did that in order to project confidence and also to stem the tide of shareholder selling. and it worked for a little while but the. i'm is is it's all cash flow boeing is heaven ging cash and the situation is you have billions. funded liabilities from these lawsuits so i think temporarily it's going to be ok but the lawsuits the threat of lawsuits and really the fact you can't even put a dollar amount on it is really going to severely impact the shareholders of boeing
international regulatory attorney miles edwards thanks so much for your time. thank you. let's all now for a quick break but hang in there because when we come back it seems like it's goes from bad to worse for peloton stoffel going to take a deep dive into what is happening with the stock right now and whether the firm can stand up to scrutiny in the near future and as we go to break here are the numbers at the close. to. what politicians do. to put themselves on the line to get accepted or rejected. so when you want to be president or injury. or somehow want to be rich. but you want to be prosperous like the 43 in the morning and people that i'm interested in
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we're tough. so you've got. to go. try to try to get. to something. it is the peloton add that crashed the company's stock wednesday peloton interactive stock was down another $2.25 after falling $2.00 on tuesday since thanksgiving roughly $1000000000.00 has been cut off the peloton stock market value
and it all appears to have started off with an ad of a husband who gives his wife a peloton for christmas if you have not seen this ad number one where have you been and number 2 take a look. now. at how the time very 1st time 1st arrived in their midst and excited that's us. can't imagine creating such a firestorm right but the response to that ad has been rage and anger twitter comments ranging from quote that face you make when you have to videotape yourself exercising to prove to your husband that you're making every effort to check notes look thin for him peloton if my husband gave me a peloton unsolicited for christmas how about this one he'd be getting divorce papers for new years and how about this one so sweet my husband was inspired by the peloton ad to get me a pair of pants in a child's media and a handwritten note that says don't f. ing touch me to you can fit into these and quote it goes on and on and on from
there the ad has been called sexist and even classist and all this backlash it seems to have hit peloton pretty hard shortly after the ad aired stock drop causing a loss of $942000000.00 in market value wiped out in a single day amid backlash over that holiday ad but this story is just too big for this one screen so let's move over here back to the other studio where we are joined by well christiane she's always over here she practically lives on the side and then of course we're also joined by the host of news use hoons scotty no he used to have you here and ceremonious the correspondent all right so we wanted to bring ellen here to talk about this because the claim is this right that this ad is so sexist because how dare this man by his wife a peloton clearly she's some kind of slave to him who must look good all the time wouldn't he added been received even worse had she been heavier when the ad started a year later now she's lost the weight is there any women in this situation when
you've lost a $1000000000.00 i don't know how it could be received any worse than that and obviously you didn't have to go through some layers of a review to have some sort of critique and nobody ever caught it here's the thing is this is not a cheap buy pelletised a very expensive bike and then i did it to a man to give it to him and unsolicited i find it to be almost false could be very because you're talking about an investment of 2000 to $3.00. $1000.00 investment so this was obviously something she had expressed there hoping that she'd express that she wanted the husband gave her i think this is much ado about nothing except that ado about nothing has cost a 1000000000 obviously a backlash because when you talk to people on the street nobody sees nobody can figure out why there is such an anger at this commercial so we're going to ask you about this because there are a lot of comments about. the beginning and it was the look on her face when she looks up at the phone and she is the furrowed brow when people say oh she looks so terrified i mean she terrify i really don't think she's that terrified i'm still terrified every time i get on the cell cycle bike with when we go to john and i
were here it is i don't go either way to go discretion here i was here but that's why you go you go because you want to feel healthy forget about how you're trying to be skinny or whatever what about trying to be healthy what about just trying to do it and again we probably wouldn't see this outrage if it were the other way around and if the wife or the one giving the politan to the husband that's probably you know you want to say. you're both writers you were the psychos here what do you write nothing was. a cycle once and i can't get into she woke up like this but that's the thing the peloton is it's also good they're not just selling a bike ride that's what makes it different from just a bike you can write yourself outside they're selling an actual experience that it's almost like and uplifting therapy session it really on wheels and a shout out to our favorite souls like no structure christopher scruggs who is here in d.c. we i mean it's about the experience that he really lifts you up but that there's hope and the encouragement that he voices throughout that class which i think is empowering and on a different level than if you're on
a bike what you can but it's something to is this going to be just like a fad though is this like an experience that you can find elsewhere with a different trying new fad to get out later on but i think it's what you stick to and what you like and there are several people who love soul cycle and it's an expensive experience for sure but if you're able to do it then so be it and it's cheaper than therapy but this fact is going around 0 while so it's not like this is going to come. going obviously there's a lot of fitness fads going on and this is one it's about i think peloton actually developed off a soul cycle or one or the other because people did want to do it no it isn't to me dating to start a new exercise and regimen and so i think that look of fear was a realistic portrayal of what was going on in any woman or man face when they start something like that for those who would say want to just get a bike and ride a bike right so i get full disclosure so i'm a peloton right i've had a peloton like now for over a year to you know. absolute love that would love to co-write with you guys. but look here's the here's the thing with it is about number one the experience and the motivation so how do you get people into it you get them in to the community and
they're doing it monthly but the other part of it is it's about accomplishing something so when i see people saying about this look of fear on her face when i see it it is because that's how i felt when i 1st did it was the fear of failing to follow through with starting a new fitness goal and i think you guys probably understand that you're right no matter what it is whether it's a peloton or what ever else isn't a big issue when you started to fitness you're trying to do something you want to you want to see through and not have it be a close to 2000 other clothes rack that's keeping your dirty laundry in about a week and i think you mentioned the investment that you're into you don't want to fail because financially don't want to feel yourself going to look at this experience and now you can be more competition as well and when i said i think i might i'm working out there on as well so there's competition for that but much like you said it's about that experience and the intimidation that comes at the beginning and that hopefully can follow through and keep going and it's an expensive experience you're investing in europe but you know that and i think in health all right we've got to leave it there what is the locus going though he was thank you all very much kristie let's go over here because if we head back to the wall i want to talk about the numbers on this the bottom line is as we talked about
this right there is a major issue here with what is happening with the peloton and its stock now peloton and the i.p.o. you may or may not know this in september it's all a climb of 35 percent a share price at that time so kristie doesn't it stand to reason you're seeing the stock price go way way up in september because of the wouldn't that then mean that at some point there's going to be a correction maybe. it's not a holiday here maybe it's not all sexes classist commercials maybe it's just the correction maybe it is a little bit of a correction but really it's driven by the ad was a catalyst for this entire correction because peloton is a momentum stock and what that means is it's not driven by the actual market value or the book value it's driven by sentiment and right now because of this ad it kind of created this entire wave of negative sentiment so this is kind of causing investors to take a step back and actually take a very realistic look at peloton instead of buying into all of this hype because right now they're digging into the books and right now claiming that they can't won't be able to reach possibility until 2023 and at this rate that doesn't even
look very likely because just like other silicon valley models it sacrifices profitability for growth burning cash in the name of growth so right now it lacks a scalable business model so rather than actually focusing on making its business more efficient with scale peloton just decided to grow and grow quickly focusing on high volume rather high margins so peloton really isn't getting any economies of scale in terms of purchase in this purchasing power their gross margins fell from 44 percent in 2018 to 42 percent in 2019 so obviously that's a huge issue right one of the biggest issues here is that peloton doesn't make money and that's a big problem for tech companies but let's talk about the business model because in the beginning a lot of folks may not realize it's either peloton couldn't find venture capital funding because a lot of v.c. firms looked at them and said no one is going to pay a monthly subscription and buy this expensive bike and peloton prove them wrong they've actually created an entirely new market now they're being copied by
a whole lot of folks right nordic track has come along since it's come along as. doing the same thing everybody else is kind of copying what they've done so doesn't that prove that they're on to something they know what they're doing absolutely imitation is the highest form of flattery and it shows that this model works however this price point really doesn't peloton really wanted to be a premium product but now it also wants to be accessible to everyone so you really . can't have both here and right now competition is rising as as you point out lower cost competitors are now emerging and they're integrating the 3rd party hardware and software along with it and then we say like a couple months ago this was just an overpriced bike with an i pod just super glued on top of it i didn't use it i said yes that competitors are finding that it really easy to copy it and consumers are now finding that there are cheaper alternatives and so they can go for these cheaper alternatives rather than spend over $2000.00 on it plus a $40.00 per subscription service so going back to the average is the 2nd you know the old adage that says all publicity is good publicity right even if it's bad if
you take a look at what has happened with peloton so who co-hosts on occasion as well as produces a boom bust. the other day he says hey by the way to see the new peloton it's got 2 people in these different rooms they're looking at each other that must be the new it so actually that's not a public that's a nordic track at it hasn't some of the controversy peloton is name recognition has shot up through the roof i mean even though there's people complaining about it last week when at the height of all of this the term peloton was more google vastly more googled than the term impeachment so it shows that the public is paying attention are they not the public when they absolutely are paying attention and they're getting that name brand recognition however it goes to show that we'll see in the future in terms of the sales next quarter to see whether or not this notoriety is a good thing because we saw if we were just because your name gets out there is not necessarily a good thing and you might not attract additional investors that way and this is what's happening to peloton right now in the public market right now buyers are scared to step into the stock right now if they are coming back
a little bit but they did drop 5 percent today on the news absolutely have to go ahead and take the next part of this because we're going to while we have talk some great to peloton let's jump right in to take a deeper look at their stock performance so let's expand this conversation and bring in adam mesh. so you just bought a peloton correct. i did i bought a peloton a couple weeks ago part of the black friday special we were thinking about it for a while and made the move and i hope i don't get in trouble but i bought it for my wife too i bought it for both of us so now let's start off with what's your take with what's happening with this entire company. i'm a big fan and not just because i bought the peloton i was listening to the previous segment i've done so cycle i've done telethon i think the thing you really want to consider is the subscription component the content that they're providing and that they keep building up and that's where they really have their head start and that subscription model is huge and that's one of the times where it's ok to spend
a lot on marketing because the lifetime value of their customers is probably a lot more than they're spending right now and they're taking even more market share so i'm a big fan of the stock the fact that it dropped off on this news is not a big deal to me i could give so many examples of where temporary bad news long term good news if you remember j.p. morgan was trading at $35.00 when the london whale lost a $1000000000.00 that stock quadrupled more recently facebook was had mark zuckerberg on c.b.c. testifying and the stock was getting beat up on the news because he was in front of congress and it soared since then so there's so many times we're being out there in the public eye a little bit of bad news makes for a lot of good news down the road i'm a fan of all don but those are businesses with actual revenue projections and they were actually profitable peloton right now is actually still a start up and they have projected on profitability until 2023 so can we really compare them to say j.p.
morgan and say that they can actually reach possibility that they can dig themselves out of this hole despite their massive cash burn and their 80 percent turn. yeah you can compare him to netflix not j.p. morgan netflix started out with content subscriptions losing money and look what that's because they have all the content i have friends who have bikes that aren't peloton that still pay for the peloton content and ride along to it so i'm telling you don't underestimate the power of all the content they've built up and they continue to build up so yes the lifetime value the customer the subscription model i don't care that they're not making money now i think their strategy is sound and i think that stock is a buy here strongly so a lot last question about peloton here so they have this 1st mover advantage we've already talked about that right we talked it to death but how do they prevent from becoming a go pro how do they prevent from becoming a essentially company that was 1st to the market you created a great product you had a great idea but then the competition comes in and does things better then you for
instance like nordic track some of these have better turning monitors or they have a wider collection of fitness i give you about 30 seconds to answer that sure so go pro i own the go pro i never used it it didn't have a subscription model fit it didn't have a subscription model this has a subscription model the content will be key just like anything else of the content is good people keep coming back and they've built up so much content that they do have a head start but sure if sulfa cycle comes out with the bike and it's better and people start switching where there's a better bike yes there could be competition but as of now i don't see any competition in sight because of the lead they have in content and match the. thank you so much for joining us. baguio. that's it by this time you can catch boom bust on youtube dot com slash you to. the next time.
that's in the individual i think very much i have to do what i think is right i have to friend to defend my values have to defend my principles and if i feel the state is not doing it according to what i think is the right thing then i have to stand up and say it's not good enough and if i as a humanitarian feel that the next to me is not respected and treated in a dignified way then i have to also stand up in this regard so yes we have to do it despite that it is maybe a very long term fight and we are not necessarily winning that. i had a spiritual experience. and i had the little girl that died in the fire cynthia collins. said their good son were looking for
a kidney reaching. on 54 years old and 21 years on good role model. for a crime i didn't commit. i only knew that it was the sun doesn't read bruce that nobody does. you know your. trial was pretty much a farce. they are ahead i'm guilty for that. nobody. was. not. able to look. through to me here. for themselves. something. i knew she was in there and i knew exactly what i was doing. people.