tv Sophie Co. Visionaries RT August 7, 2020 4:30am-5:01am EDT
thank you no because you knew from the ones we got in here she was he didn't know what to do he was trapped in this tiny little wired coach you don't need a crate with him he was. freaking out and he wanted to bring him anywhere near. caged in the in human conditions on puppies i mean 67 years you know they've been locked up in a cage outside you see no protection from the weather the heat you know the courtier the rain the snow the fonder they have no protection. particularly you. know it's a kid. across the u.s. crude puppy mills are supported by dog shows on at stores most of the puppies that are coming from these large scale factory farming kind of operations are being sold in stores even joined a good businesses are involved but. there has been a shocking amount of organized opposition to adverts to increase the standards of
care for dogs bred in commercial breeding for so many most of that opposition is coming from huge agricultural groups and industries that have nothing to do with dogs don't buy dog on a. lawn welcome to so think of visionaries me sophie shevardnadze could 900 condemn a came as an external shock is unprecedented how can we navigate then certainty of the post condemning future to discuss this i'm joined by the author of best selling books the black swan antifragile and skin in the game guide that having 3 minute talk to for the past 3 months every scandalous nassim nicholas taleb. yes i'm nicholas taleb risk analyst author of thought best selling books to black swan and
2 for a child skin in the game so great to have you with us is been 3 months i'm dreaming of talking to you and asking those questions so the day has come high. well thank you. very very rarely honor the restriction to. write so nicholas at this energy online forum have talked about making societies more resilience to the future challenges without trying to protect them exactly but making sure we'll be ready for the unexpected i mean do you expect the call the crisis to be teaching us anything in that regard definitely but there's 2 central things i have to say the 1st one is that you don't have to be paranoid in general but a lot of things just have to be paranoid about small number of threats and the main one is. the pandemics and that makes all the methods people just worry about global. war or mobile already know the big
think biggest threat we have has been that it will be a mix. and and and because of the structure of modern society germs can travel much faster so something i was saying of the century scribing the difference in structure between today and the past is you know the silk road is very interesting and brought a lot of merchandise but guess what came with the merchandise on both sides chirps ok but there were traveling the germs were traveling so 1st of all as a short i was actually going up for school exemption from we've had merchandise moving without anybody on sally how k. from town to town to research all and byron back and forth and horses travelling for you know it's real drama days anyway but the let's say it's mobilization you get germs with it. but at the time. it took a long time. you know it took
a long time to in fact they did. train in northern europe and was that not the middle east took a locked up for the people to be in fact that the day you can set up a conference and secure a town really see one of my favorite cities conference there 30000 specialists i don't know what say the. lungs are it or something more boring say a liver liver specialist ok come in from all around the world so people come from it's going to stand. cincinnati they go they mingle. and guess what they go back home for those later and 2 weeks later the starts to spread their own to become super says super spreader that's we had many more suppressed presidents today so. the good news is that now we understand the
problem. and the pandemic we had was not very severe it was a small thing is here could have been a lot worse but it was not it was you know small thing it was not some small but i'm saying you can bet a lot worse could have been like something of the order of smallpox or. something similar or some other bacteria that's antibiotic resistant so we have now we live we have an awareness of it and the idea of any official theory is that every time a plane crashes the next plane ride you know would be safer to say the system learns from stakes and improves based on mistakes that is a good system so the world will be different wiser and then people now but hopefully it's good for peace because people understand the moral that the enemy is not some person with weapons the enemy of the thing you don't see. the little germ
. pencil test the enemy now you know. all these the military threats are a say because the world this from place and then now people are aware of it but will they really be smarter you think because like i'm looking back at sars outbreak and had we paid more attention to it and got in the back seen back then and being so much easier to get the vaccine done for calling 1000 now it seems like we don't really learn that much from our mistakes do you really think it's going to the vaccines are not the solution by the way this quarter connectivity is a solution because we're still waiting for an issue of effects here so whatever whenever you discuss medical improvements. these take time take a lot of time. as our president can happen an unpredictable pace so if i say that the 188 start but serious 5 years 40 years ago ok.
treatments maybe no back seat so you can have more steady improvement and treatments we may have a max of extreme tomorrows like winning a lot lotto and investment and even then the next scene is may prove to be short term effect effects are assured you know not long term effect because of as a as you know you know things you state so i think a more robust world would be one in which we do business as usual but guess what be prepared for current times current pries are a lot cheaper to reduce mobility of the germs as a lot cheaper than having locked down. we spent trillions from you know lockdowns it's vastly cheaper and so have some measures. so that when you talk about be prepared for current times and that will take care of everything in terms of connotative being the danger. ok i get that but is this like a temporary saying are sure we stay in this sort of current time not forever can we
ever somehow go back to the simplest weren't fast travel hassle free boarders all that stuff you know you will have free mourners everything so long as people are prepared this there is an eruption of something like and i mean to ask border control to reduce connectivity because the jurors don't travel by phone they will try a long zoom they travel you see on air france and the aeroflot and on carriers so you want to use that and then and let me tell you again let's say something out saying that senator kerry as you look at history and the. black that's the plague took place in a search and hundreds. still have corn ties and $850.00 and every ship at i'm talking about the psyche of the people that were prepared for it now sometimes maybe they're lax about not using the lesser it goes with it but the
people for actually 40 days of potatoes before releasing them but they had a system in place for 500 years. don't stop you cannot go and i was saying you cannot go from me a plant buyer into the hops bird we are going to touch whether or not there was a pandemic they had the system now i'm not asking to i want that all the time but to have a plan in place to inforce 3 levels checked passengers. test by sensors or contact bestsellers it's a level 123 and still 00 most of the dive in till you have information and then you can act if you acted that way out of on we would have the problem. oh it so here's the thing like in the beginning of the demick when it all started and we understood that it was global and he was irreversible everyone hysterically
started remembering the notion of the black swan. and then it sort of got you knowing and you were saying this is really not a black swan it's a white swan and then just the latest century a read of yours an international business times are saying yeah actually it couldn't be a black swan is it is it because the pandemic itself the virus is self is not the black swan but the black swan is the handling of the aftermath basically no one has said this is a story so it will 'd call this a people. handling it. my black swan i said it's not the disease but the eros the lack of logical behavior on our people. do not say no i did not are they so let me tell you why it's not a black swan a black swan to something you don't see coming something that they have movies about how could it be
a black swan so they had movies about 10 times in the black swan discuss going through the day and i say whoa because of the structure of the world. expect to have maybe sure but that makes but deep are the ones that have the. let's not trust medical knowledge too much because. it has improved for a lot of diseases but the diseases are smaller than most ok but whatever is happening now or not now that the disease is sort of. going backwards but we're left with economic consequences with fractured societies with minorities rebelling all over the world with with all the consequences that we have on our hands what i think you know is going to happen is a transformation of economic structures to accommodate. potential pandemics even of the never happen again people to prepare for them like
for example in the united states we have a migration out of new york city where you have a super spreader of i mean his subway so even if we control 'd this one and it's gone and you have to worry and goodbye even if you control this one there will be. paranoia about what could happen next so so we have a some people living in new york plus there's another saying there is a structural permanent transformation in the way things are happening with academia and with offices that for the same reason we're talking on zoom on the new studio now and seems to work ok it's a salute dating thing that would have happened in a physical world we are learning to do things offline and these things are taken place you know in a remote. enough light that i meant remote they think of taking place remotes are
causing a gross of economic activity in some sectors so and so i think one of the transformation is a duchess and russia or country houses here are in demand people want to move there ok because you can do remote from there and once in a while go to the city as same time. real estate is going to be depressed cities. online shopping people learn to do online shopping it's not as entertaining as going to the mall but you know having a house which means that malls are going to suffer big time everywhere. but also if you live in a remote place it's good news for you because you may find an employer who's come to. they say for example now there's a crisis of love in all and people want to emigrate you know stay there or try to be hired remote somewhere it's much easier is don't have a visa problem so it creates you know. like people can travel without a visa holder a lot of the things like this always have been some other this transformation
coming out of this coupled with some bad news for some industries. businesses and of course to me it's a bad news for for all this political. geo political discourse because the enemy isn't some foreign country anywhere the enemy is a german now and we all face insane sure let's hope so let's hope so let's hope that we'll actually learn something or really draw a lesson out of it ok it doesn't take a short break right now when we're back we'll continue talking to the author of best selling books the black swan antifragile skin a game risk analyst nassim nicholas taleb don't go away.
how can you explain love i've been to 82 countries i did in 12 but i came here and i know 3 days i just felt at home. and he kept pretty isn't it sick show. i made my decision to come here because 'd i felt and you i could build a new life here. you know if you companies and. i was a prima but i think god decided that this money is not going to be free while pro-style if it were only a good hit t.v. series. where my one dream is that all my children 'd find the same kind of happiness i do. i love my home i love cold weather i like the cultural like the history i like everything about it. and i don't i know that i.
am a russian pharma. and we're back with author of best selling books the blacks wanting to fragile skin in a game of risk analyst nassim nicholas taleb nicholas anti fragility is achieved by decentralization you say propping up the capitalism local governments printing huge monopolies from forming strengthening links in the chain so that are servants to fall is not a problem for the future do you see anyone in the world now going down that road i mean is anyone actually doing that so let me explain what has happened if you see
the reaction to the virus the lower the units in the scale the more responsible it's like the city of atlanta also met it masks much smarter than the state of georgia. so if you look at the charbonneau of the central government so what happened at the bottom up process. works fine for the and the mic because in their own sauce or you know after the black that you have the renaissance downs were closing by themselves the minute there was a strat solo and those those who are paranoid enough to close early or escape most of black this and the other subsequent diseases that they had that came later you know them shut down the town you can't go and you got to go up or you can go out you can't go back and so so my idea is the higher you go in the organization the worst so what is on top the most incompetent organization in history is
a world health organization the most incompetent egger they could not understand masks that masks are symmetric like if i wear a mask they said well there's no evidence this is cool naive evidence of it back then was it and i will publish some scientific papers explaining their own stand the military they use is mathematics that's 100 years old or it doesn't matter and their scientific understanding isn't science they say there's not as mass court there is is there evidence they don't work there's no evidence that i'm going to have a car accident today should i not wear seat belts they don't understand so the idea that. it's not some of the higher up people should be more competent as bust the higher up the more incompetent c.c. was incompetent and united states the center for disease control same thing at the same attitude towards masks where we were barking and january to say ok this is
serious the world has a residential saint or there's no evidence that this disease you know can trust meant for human to human. this is lunacy or generally $26.00 so there is a world health organization lead to a lot of problems ok and problem except waited so if we didn't have it would be better off. it's a and the so so so i like but i want structures are localist so subsidiarity in other words if you cannot do it at the local level maybe you go up ok and for things like the military for things on the phone ok that's fine you don't at the top level to come to diplomacy or the village level but for things like water electricity and basic safety like. leave it to the town some towns in italy decided to close to strangers others were open to let them compete who's going to do better you know facing the class of the realm of that's
so this is leading people to understand locals so where is your smell in terms of. a regionalized economy because a lot of great minds and economy that of space spoken to different different countries they're saying you know we're going from global to regional economy to let me think we're all in the same nobody wants to go to authority where you just you know you're bored. and want to stream and do it while so you know no control over them so it's somewhere in between so i think that the fight is between those who want say 70 percent or 75 percent say so because even if the chinese make something a lot cheaper and it's no threat to you let's say ok then then they start pharmaceutical ok that's fine or they can make has a from a sort of call that we use yes but you cannot have
a control 100 percent of the circle you don't enter the when there is a disruption then you're cut off from the source and so for vital sayings maybe we'll have a we're going to world where you don't have. the vital things are must be produced locally here within an area that is a racial. and non vital things who cares they see this glass of water and they can make it and whatever they want they can make it in the mood they want that's fine it's a discussion that's fine i can live without the glass right but pharma no so then there are some items and i think countries what i think. will happen is countries will say ok we need to have stock on this this this this and that or make sure it's produced locally and the rest will so impact on the general economy is going to be not big and the summit because i really don't think anybody wants are saying you
don't believe in his leg big slowdown in globalization you think you think things have a nicer not more going there was a sion and be more guarded in other words when i say like nobody's mentioned and this economic boost we got was it is partially or maybe totally or whatever it is definitely had a role in pulling a 1000000000 people out of poverty we didn't want a 1000000000 people out of poverty by sending them. kids who study at harvard professor and she knows you know no that's not how it works or it and they're messing up their place no we got them out of poverty axl rose ation ok by having a gross and one area lead to gross in another area so we had that so the saying is we don't want to mess it up we want to protect it. but on the other hand the enemy what he does is say listen to any surprise they should say hey what's your problem they say well. the china makes. 95 percent of the vital drugs ok that's fine now through some here it's not big deal non-vital drugs
like if you want. some kind of weather that's fine to make it but so what i'm saying is that if you have to make a list of things that the government will assist to not be localized the list will not be mostly l'arche. and then also oh the supply chains or through the good times handle them rather well i mean it's not a big deal what i think is happening now and that would be a big transformation as a physical movement of population like me travelling to would be reduced and the business traveller will will not be there won't be you know as active as we saw in the past because they feel his life is over and where now they all understood that we could work with zoom and who wants to spend 3 hours in traffic area day. but you still have a business travel but for me to go to you know i don't mind doing so or georgia or
school say once a year and i mean. going to have my and my amenities and all these i love the feel of i don't want to go in once a year but but and then spending more time there and stuff but traveling you know back i'm forced because there's a conference or something i will not have anymore or to use myself by travel is the one not be able to replace everything you still need people face to face ok yeah you got it i don't think that it was something any somehow right you can do it be as soon exactly so the. but but on the other hand there would be immediate reduction but i think academia is going to suffer the most in countries like united states where the things overall are much more like it so that is what one of my favorite russian near scientists at that senator niggas gotta know maybe you even know her and she spoke to me recently and she goes that assert uncertainty east the most frightening thing for
a human psyche and since this crisis has brought us up to like a whole new level of uncertainty. she says these are the things that will help us through curiosity and empathy do you agree let me tell you what happened to kind of people the 1st kind of people say oh things are bad i'm just a home and cry and wait for things to get better like for example. who were drivers say ok there's no right or another friend of mine who was. someone from iran. that he converted is aside to start a delivery service. he says people you know they're buying food that they don't want to wait in line supermarket and so you know and he's making twice as much money twice ok so some people are making. lemonade out of lemon life because you know lemon i don't know how it's translated russian but they're going
to be especially life because you remember you make lemonade and other people are suffering ok and the governors have been extremely. health role for citizen who would have thought that the 1st socialist presidents or united states would be the most front. he gave people universal basic income for a few months and it took possession of companies if that's not socialism i don't know what is socialism ok so the so the individual got a protective nest ok that they didn't have before so it is mixed so my what i'm telling you is that there are bad news or good news there are a lot of uncertainty here maybe less yet but it is makes the story is never one way when you see an event like that the 1st thing and that's a nasty fragile the 1st thing you gotta do is say how can i make lemonade out of this lemon so for example a group of friends and i were stunning a thing
a sort of like maybe university that's off line events at the circus or encouraging others ok. and that's a product of that and that make so for us it is a. business creation opportunity for many it is a business where creation up a shirt but if you're is an employee of a travel agency and you want to wait for think to come back that's not the right approach they say some people are suffering and others are going to help in any way the governments have been propping up people who you know were desperate because they had no way to pull out of this by themselves but must wonder if you want to headline is done who would have expected the co-head to run boss no mistaken foreign policy code to bring socialism to countries like united states in spain. like a double pleasure talking to you because i was interested in what you're going to say but now that you've inflicted me with optimism and now i am coming out of this
interview saying this is a good thing that's happening to me because the good thing that well has been a mad man or i'm going to make lemonade out of this lemonade out. that's what i'm going to say every morning when i wake up thank you so much it's been such a pleasure to thank you thank you thank you thank you take care of yourself a great thing there really hope to talk to you soon i would like to thank synergy online forum organized by the synergy of business school for arranging this interview thanks to you guys.
is your media a reflection of reality. in a world transformed. what will make you feel safe from. the isolation for community. are you going the right way or are you being led somewhere. direct. what is true what is faith. in the world corrupted you need to descend. to join us in the depths. or remain in the shallowness. of the mc maxwell soggy is one of the most sensational stories of our time however media coverage appears to be limited to learning details and political overtones
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