given sector. let me set the stage. this morning shortly after 6:00 a.m., dow stock caterpillar, the giant machinery company, dramatically slashed its earnings, the guidance that it had for the first quarter. wall street was looking for cat to earn 95 cents. in the totally unnerving announcement is the company said it could only muster 65 to 70 cents that's right, energy, transportation resource orders nose diving is the reason. it was an unmitigated disaster. the news immediately sent the stock, which had been red-hot as of late down two bucks in early morning trading before the bell had rung. it was such a powerful slap in
reversed what looked to be a luck of the irish day to smell reassembling the potato famine. [ buzzer ] by the time the market had opened it was down less than a dollar. what is that about? was that it down two bucks at 7:00 a.m.? then one a few minutes, it was actually up, the stock was up in the black, and then it started flying. it only closed up 1.56, 2%, one of the most startling of the most startling reversals i can recall in my entire career, even the company somehow did assert of rest of europe would be fine. i'm sure this one made no sense. i listened all today. people were like, hum, uh, hmm. >> that's because you don't know what was happening in this battleground stock behind the scenes and i do. ever since this market bottomed
failures died down and china stock market stopped being a focus, we've been rallies in the commodity market. the stuff you need to get metals out of the ground, and they've been screaming. then yesterday the federal reserve decided it was no longer planning to raise interest rates in lockstep like it promised in december. the four rate hikes disappeared from the agenda. the fed recognized the fragility of the global economy. the fed was supposed to be tightening. when the fed tightens, it makes sense for foreigners to buy u.s. dollars, because they'll give them a better return. billion upon billions of dollars have been rolled into this country betting on higher rates, people selling their euros to own the dollar, selling the yen, whatever the heck else to own the dollar.
directions, it shocked investors, a especially the ones holding tight to the dollars, hoping for a greater return on overnight money, which is exactly what you would get if the fed raised rates. you would get it instantly suddenly it was drop the dollar, buy the euro. it was stunning. >> sell sell sell. >> buy buy buy. >> same thing with the yen. >> sell the dollar, buy the euro. >> sell sell sell. >> buy buy buy. >> immediately, immediately and what a fed switcheroo this was, i thought i would never say this. it's the super-freaking weak dollar! business overseas and competes companies that sell goods and services in weak currencies like the yen and the euro. they have been crushing cat's bit. any machinery company based in japan as caterpillar's
a huge edge. with the dollar peaking, the tables have been turned. the new trend could be your friend, so buyers were inclined to buy the weakness in caterpillar stock, but that's not all. like i mentioned earlier, we've seen relentless commodities. copper limb news, iron, oil, you know the litany, so even though it annihilated the first quarter forecast, this could mark the low. the cyclical low, the low in the cycle, given the weaker dollar appeared the stronger commodity prices that beat stronger orders down the road. you can buy stocks like caterpillar precisely when you get what's known as a cyclical commodity lower. in 2008, that's exactly what happened, seems to be happening now. even that's not enough to cause a rally with such horrendous news.
something not related, not to the business of make heavy machinery, but to the bit of money management. many hedge fund managers were shorting the stock, because he figured the quarter would have to be terrible. they know the economy -- didn't the fed just tell us that? and when the economy is weak, the hedge fund play book, which is mythical, believe me it's all in their heads -- i used to be one -- weak economy, short the stock of caterpillar. the big institutions ver shying away outright or betting against the stock for months and months. now when you get the worst news possible, the kind of thing when you were short something, you week like, yes, that's just so horrible! you get the worth news, a gigantic cut from ka the pillar and it doesn't go down? the short seller have to ask, what the heck will drive it down? if you're a hedge fund that
exposure, you want to buy the stock, but you know all the baz news is out, they just gave it to you. so you had towel throwing shorts underinvested mutual funds, put it all together, and you get a massive rally seemingly out of nowhere. you could see this coming. there had been some signs. monday after the close, dover, gigantic industrial preannouncing hideous number because of oil weakness. our first quarter results will be entirely driven by our exposure to oil and gas markets. they noted that while oil has come back up they were cautious when it came to recovery. when i read it, i thought there goes that run. sure enough, the stock did indeed drop to 61, and after that. rallied above to where they preannounced that crumby
today it's up $1. 87, this is all they said things were horrible. how about emerson electric. we haven't talk about that dog for a long time. last night emerson issued order growth numbers, and some thought they saw green shoots, why? they had been forecasting orders to decline 5% to 6%. hold it, a moment of optimism. emerson said they may decline 4% to 6%. they revised that forecast down 8 to 10%. i told you it was a thin read, but they expect trailing three-month orders to turn positive. and then screams at 64 and change. unbelievable. the news opened the floodgates.
these stocks were all screaming. last night fedex reported a beat, and its commentary was extraordinary bullish. you've got to read it, a great play with incredible increases in better net deliveries. you might ask, where on earth does all the money come from to buy these stocks? no new money is coming in the market. that's been the case for ages. we're getting the capital needed to propel stocks like free ft. mcmoran, or pioneer natural resources, an oil company that issued equities some 20% ago. the answer -- we're in both rolling bear market territory and rolling bull market territory. one hand washes the other. 9 banks are coming down, they're coming down hard.
trashed, in part because of the ongoing saga of value. the roll-up with $30 billion in dead, and in fact th part because of all the major presidential candidates that seem to despise anything health care. with a velocity that's shocking to everything, especially those who thought the global economy yaw slowing, making the recession-loving drug companies and the banks the favorite groups. suddenly people are fleeing. remember, one bear hand washes the other bull hand. speaking of the devil. so here's the bottom line. we don't know how long this rotation can last. is this day one or day two? or merely a short-cover rally that has to run its course? i say watch the dollar. if the greenback has truly peaked, i believe that this move could be far from over. let's go to landy in georgia.
>> caller: hello, jim. i bought nike at 55.50 on february 5th for my retirement account, planning to hold for maybe five to ten years. nike las a tendency to run up prior to the earnings report, that's due out on tuesday, march 22in' after the close. my question to you is do i take a small -- >> no, no, no, nike is a great american company that is king in every country that is. you do not tough that nike. if it goes below 59, after i watched that sara eisen, it was like saraitisen hour with nike. i wanted to buy nike. you should stay the court. no longer the almighty dollar. it's the super-freaking weak dollars. keep your eye on it. i think the moment could tun. target is up. should you be investing where you shot? i'm sitting down with the bull's-eye ceo, then ventas has
people may be approaching this stock all wrong. and few things are certain on wall street, expect expiration of taxes. don't worry, you're safe. i'm talking to the company behind turbotax and quickbooks. so stick with cramer. don't miss a second of "mad money." follow @jimcramer on twitter. have a question? tweet cramer #madtweets. send jim an e-mail to email@example.com, or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc. miss something in head
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tom-and-bottom line, and the stock has been on a nice run. i wouldn't be surprised if the stock keeps climbing. don't take it from me. let's dig in deeper with brad smith. welcome to "mad money." >> i said this is a story i cannot believe we haven't profiled you before. you're different, my friend, you're difficult. that ad is different. the veterinarian ad is different, and in terms of your values, you're different. how did you come up with that? it seems like that's exactly who is using small business, to use your books and manage the business. >> as you might imagine, i didn't come up with it. we have a lot of great people in the company, great agencies, but those are the customers we serve every day. one out of two fail in the first five years.
success in their favor. >> there was a super bole add that you did. >> yeah. and it was -- tell the story. >> two years ago we began a program where people could nominate their favor small business. we were the first company to give away a 30-second ad to the winner of this contest. this year's winner was death wish coffee. they have now doubled the number of employees, grown their sales 400%, they are on a tear and we are so happy for them. >> i use you for both of our businesses. >> thank you. >> >> i'm helpless without the thing, and i think a lot of people are helpless without it. we don't want to spend a fortune, we just want it to work, but you also have a
you do for your taxes. it's not totally -- some of these people do stick with you after, but talk about turbotax absolute zero. when i first heard it at dinner, i didn't believe it. >> there are 60 million people in the united states who have a 1040-ez or 1040-a and they go to places to spend hundreds for the return. for those families, the tax refund is the biggest check they get every year, so you can do your free federal and free state. you can process and getting a $2800 tax refund on average. i helping facts get access and helping us expand or market share. >> how much do you charge for it? >> zero. >> it's not like zero and 100. >> next year if they come back and are on their feet, then they move up the product line, but they'll remember we were there when they needed us. it continues to give. >> suv how your share is moving up? >> we had 62% share last year. so far this tax season, it looks
is trying to have the absolute best product. we have it on mobile. you can finish and start your mobile on a return or tablet, and it's things like absolute zero that put a topspin on it. >> i'm more effusive than usual, but you have a set of values. the values are about integrity and what you stand for. again, first time you're on. second time it gets tougher, because it's right up front everything you do. >> our founder started the company 33 years ago when he watched his wife struggle to balance the family checkbook, and he said there has to be a better way. our mission became to improve people's financial lives. so we have small business accounting without the accounting in it. we have taxes, our dream is imagine a day you can do a tax return without answering a single question. we literally pull the data in
>> there's no toggling, which is what i wasn't good at. >> you can see some of the ads for our tissue other tax ads. do you have a finger? take a picture. there you go. it's done. it helps people get money. >> the other thing you have made clear is those who felt there would be an urgency to the affordable care act, it turned out to be you modeled massachusetts. it's not a big deal. it is not. our job is to make complex things simple. there aren't more things a lot of things more complex than the tax code. we went to work to make the affordable care act in a simple. make sure they comply with the act, get the subsidy they need or pay the penalty. it's not having an impact. in fact it's a catalyst. >> one last question. >> sure. look, 148 million, you've got this huge number of people that -- the whole -- how is
>> you know, jim, it is a slog. they fight every single day. we pay 1 in 12 americans with our payroll service and in fact 3 trillion flows through quickbooks, so they are hiring. they are getting more charge volume, but if you had to courage that into an annual iced rate it's about a 1.5% to 2% growth but we're there for them. >> i guess it's just a tough place to do big or so hard to start? >> right now it's very different. 60% of americans work in small businesses, and 80% of the new jobs -- if we don't get small business growing, this economy will not grow. you have to make it easier for them to get up and running. >> i couldn't agree more. that's why we use you. this is a great company. stay with cramer. coming up -- >> billion dollar brands, how
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charitable trust. not only is target incredibly well run, but it reported a terrific quarter, and even if they're running up to a couple bucs, this stock still remains darn cheap. earlier today, i got a chance to chat with brian cornel, the terrific chairman and ceo who has masterminded an amazing short turnaround at target. take a look. >> all we ever hear about is online shopping. why does it human interaction matter still? >> it's important, we know the majority of our guests still come to our stores. in fact across the street, we know 90% of shopping is still done in a physical store. so experience counts, and we never forget that. >> i start with that, because you have remarkable turn. it's based on the idea that bricks and mortar can still be a
growing digital both online and off-line. how are you melding these two? >> what we realized is we knee to make it ease no for today's consumer to shot any time any way they want. sometimes in stores, other times on the phone clicking, placing an order, and sometimes they want it shipped right to their home, so we want to make sure experience counts. >> i'm seeing, i know it's early, but seeing dramatic double-digit gains in those portions of the store. >> i personally have been focused on the front of store experience. it's the first thing you see. for a number of years one of the also some called the one spot.
it was a big sizable business for us and pretty profitable, but we challenged ourselves to reimagine that and we launched also some called bull's-eye playground. brought our mascot into the fold. it's unlocked enormous sales gains. it's the guest's first reaction, they see our dog, they see bull's-eye's playground and great value and excitement. it's the first place they stop. so since we've done that, jim, we've seen 25 and 30% increases every week, but it's that first impression that for us really counts. >> where else are you seeing -- what other parts? apparel, which a lot of people have given up, whether it be swim, some other areas that are exciting, where you're getting those kinds of large gains. >> we've been a leader in swim for a long time. we regained our number one position last year, but we're off to a great start. with swim, that's where you get
seeing big double-digit gains in swim. we want to make sure we're lighting -- so you know last year we invested in mannequins. and once we put them in place, we realized we didn't have the right team in our stores to maintain them. we invested in visual merchandising and put 1400 experts inside our stores, so that back to experience, every time you shop those mannequins look great. the home vignetted look great, the experience is there to remind the guest there's lots to experience. >> the experience is there with i wanted. i have a target it's fun, it's always different. you're putting some targets where my kids are, in cities where you didn't think there could be a big enough footprint for target. you're changing your format? >> we're following the consumer.
consumer is moving back to urban centers. 75% of millennial, they want to live in constituents and around college campuses. we're simply following the consumer. we recognize we have to customer many tailor our stores. i can't find ten acres in new york city or chicago, but i can find some great neighborhood location, where you might have a 10 or 15 or 20 or 30,000 square foot store that has assortment, customized for the localized community, but it's right there where the consumer lives. >> downtown new york? >> tribeca in october. as soon as we made that announcement, i'm getting e-mails from local consumers in that neighborhood saying thank you for bringing target to our neighborhood. that's the approach we're taking. >> that's a young neighborhood, where people have children this
i know the baby kids wellness, so the interactions where you nailed them before others? >> it is, but it's also making sure the assortment is right. so try becka baby babies will be important the on the college campuses, university of maryland, it's a different assortment. i have to have the right home essentials, technology is important, food plays a different role, so we have to have the flexible formats to represent the local consumer we serve, so every one of these has to be custom tailored. we opened up a location in chicago by the navy pier. one of first things i heard when i talked to the team about what assortment do we need to add was they said, brian, you need converters and adapters. i'm sitting there saying why? well, it's all the tourists down there for the navy pier. they're stopping in our stores saying do you have a converter?
so every market is a little different. we have to make sure we're customizing the assortment. >> how do you get people interesting enough? nice enough that i want to interact? the largest retailer in the company has a reputation these days of struggling trying to get people we want to communicate with. target, no. what is special that you offer that they want to work at target? >> we've had a history of attracting one of the best teams in retail. in fact i sit here today feeling's if i've got the best team in the retail industry. we invest in our people. last week aloerch we had hundreds of our team members in minneapolis for a full week of training. so we want to invest in that talent, make sure they know they have a career with our company and make sure when they come to work, they come to serve our
>> at the same time we obviously have to care about shareholders, you're returning a lot of capital. back to the old days of growth stock and buyback. >> that's how i look at it, we are clearly focused on growth. as i think about where we are today, it's a growth story. it's about a consistent growth story that providing a great return, but focused on our guests. i think to unlock consistent growth, every day we have to recognize what our consumers need, what the target guests needs and it fuels our strategies. we start with our guests, think about our team members and ultimately it's a great return. >> last question, i know what you have done is similar to what disney and proctor have done, tried billion dollar brands. how many are in the store? and how many this time next year?
and we're excited about it. >> you don't know yet? are they secret? >> we announced a couple weeks ago. >> right. >> the new brands for kids and home. the early reaction has sensational. and then we're just about to launch a brand in apparel called cat and jack, which we think will drive tremendous interest in our apparel line for kids. i remind our team not everyone can introduce billion dollar brands. we're focused on delivers, what our guest is asking for, and i'm excited about the work the team has done. >> congratulations. brian cornel, chairman and ceo of target. thank you so much. >> thank you, jim. coming up, wall street may have focused on the fed this week, but it's yellen's next move that has cramer all riled up. he takes you inside the head of
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it last reported alternates over a monday ago delivered substantially higher than expected revenue analysts expecting only about -- even some analysts were concerned. sing think the to be has come roaring back to $62 as of today. yet still she the bank an chairman hear about more of where the company is headed. welcome back to "mad money," deb. have a seat. >> good to see you, jim. >> it finally happened, i think. they etfs and stocks have gotten to the point where you have to defend ventas simply because they all trade together. i'm going to give you the floor to explain why your business model is different and why the move is the right one and not just a short squeeze.
i'm happy to talk about it. we're a diversified business model. we are the landlord and capital provider to the leading health care in senior housing companies across the country. we have a great portfolio, a great team, and a diversified way to go reline cash flowing every single year, reliable different on a strong ball sheet and have proven that over 17 years. >> people say you've had ventas on and you love it, but jim you're not aware of the overbuilding that's been going on in senior housing. 70% of our net operating income comes from infill superior coastal markets where there's
there are pockets of new supply. the reason there are pockets of new supply, everybody we have a great portfolio. we have projected 1 to 3% same-store growth in 2016, and we think our portfolio will continue to perform and certainly be incredibly well positioned in the intermediate term when this wave the seniors comes at us. >> and the website says look at that guidance, a substantially lower guidance than in 2015. you have to ask her about that. >> okay. our guidance last year was 3% to 5%. we delivered 9%, had excellent results. what we like to gift investors is a transparent money in the bank kind of guidance with no real external acquisitions. all you know we're a consolidation play. we have rolled up many companies, many properties.
but i think on a $31 billion company, with a good different, just repeatable growth is pretty darn strong. >> others are saying they have taken on substantial medicare risk. that doesn't seem to be the case at all. >> it's in fact completely the opposite. one of the things that people have not liked recently interest some health care reits is exposure to skilled nursing, which is undergoing some industry challenges. what ventas was an innovative spin-off of all of our skilled nursing portfolio, really proving our expertise and understanding of the health care business, and we have only 4% of our net operating income, which is 1.9 billion. 4% of that coming from skilled nursing. that is from the industry post acute leader kindred health care. we feel great about our spot on
of the curve, as we try to continue to be. >> so a new president comes in and says we're going to slash spending on assisted living, on nursing homes. how bad is ventas hurt? >> i do want to say 83% of that billion nine comes from private pay sources. >> here people who buy and do ver nice -- >> out of their pocket, or in our case, maybe out of their children's pockets. so that would not change our net operating income or profit outlook at all. we have a small amount of government reimbursed assets with the leaders in the business. we're a landlord in the super senior secured piece of paper and those tenants capital structures, with well covered
expect we would continue to be insulated from changes that may come. >> and one of the things that ventas is one of the better balance sheets. if you have opportunities, they will accuse to your fantastic shareholder base. >> -- we have a great cost of capital. we work hard to keep that. the integrity of that cost of capital so that we can acquire the best assets, make the most profits on the best assets and continue that virtuous circle of reliable growth. >> i will say this about you. you've been the best performing reit, the best yield and safest. i think people should understand and do homework. now all reits are created equal. "mad money" is back after the
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it is time. it is time for the lightning round on cramer's mad money. rapid fire calls. you hear this sound. and then the "the lightning round" is over. are you ready skee-daddy? let's start with tony in new york. tony. >> caller: jim, thanks for taking my call. a position at kmi, about 3,000 shares, and i -- >> you know what? i'm not crazy about kmi, not crazy about the mlp space. they've had a run for a couple
but i'm not going to tell you to buy kmi. ayaz in new york? >> caller: how are you, jim? >> i'm good. how are you, sir? >> caller: my question was american power. >> i've liked it for ages. they've been acting terribly. suddenly they've come alive. what i suggest to people is they in buy, not sell. let's go to nancy in washington. >> caller: seagate? >> i want to hold seagate. western digital has a -- and realmoney.com, it looks okay. i don't want to buy it, i don't recall to sell seagate. alan in pennsylvania. alan? >> caller: boo-yah from springfield delaware county. >> what's up?
old favorites. >> when i to the to brian cornel today from target, he continue toss believe that natural and organic is the right one to be. this one has sluggish, you know my charitable trust still likes it. i'm expressing support once again to buy white wave. how about tyler in pennsylvania? tyler? >> caller: a big boo-yah from bucks county, p.a. >> i lived there and loved it. i'm from doylestown. what's happening. >> caller: you began a stock beginning with the letter t. so somehow i don't believe in coincidences, but it came up on mild computer screen, a company named tyler technologies. >> i would have to why tyler is doing so badly. because other companies in that business are doing well. tonight, adobe, as i told you, fantastic number. let's do some work, tyler. jim in florida.
call. i was watching the stock, i know biotech is getting hit hard. i was looking at stock abb. >> only baas it yields 4%, we have donald trump not liking them, we have hillary clinton not liking them. that's a lot of powerful hate. you have to be careful. stay small in the group. jennifer in new jersey. >> caller: thanks for taking my call. vly. >> i'm not recommending any banks right now, because the federal reserve did not raise rates. so let's stay away. that concludes the "the lightning round." "the lightning round" is sponsored by td ameritrade. i think we should've taken a left at the river. tarzan know where tarzan go!
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it's the difference between grabbing the next entry point, if you set the scene there were plenty of people calling for a rate hike all last fall, but the collapse in china caused that talk to be put on hold. we can argue whether that's too specific, but when everyone with lots of capital is worried about where the chinese market is going to open, and we had all august flash crash that took the dow from 0,500 to 15,600 in just a handful of davis, let's just say, you get the picture, but then the dow rebounded and china looked under control. even as we were getting softer nonwage data, next thing they were talking about the artificial flash crash lows, as many emerging markets collapsed central bankers around the world threw acetylene on the fire, at the same time one part that was still doing well, oil and gas industry simply collapsed. while we can geographically contain the issue to only a dozen states, i think even the fed wall street shocked at the hundreds of billions of energy default risk that suddenly appeared all over the place
any thinking person on the federal reserve would have to believe the december rate hike triggered a wave of deflation that had been hypotheticaled out, but it turned out to be spot on. coupled with the dramatic and instant decline in the wealth effect that had been buoying the markets. so reason number one, the risk tilted suddenly toward deflation, and tightening in a deflationary scenario is tantamount to economic suicide. i think they thought there had to be a boost in wages, but the data says otherwise. if you strip out the impact of mandated wage laws, they have gone fallen, not gone higher. ideologues, so many of whom have microphones have totally lost touch, because they're so darn rich, they don't even know the real world anymore. i could easily be the same way if i didn't have some involvement in actual small business. thank you. just a sec, let me get "get rich
we aren't getting what the textbooks say we would. i think wages would be falling hard if it weren't for the minimum wage -- so it's basically nonexistence, because there's nothing the fed can do about these laws. the exporters are doing so terribly while there's no wage growth that the narrative seems to have changed radically. the foreign companies want to take our jobs away and they're succeeding, so let's throw out the bums who are running the country and get protectionists. i was amazed how little people
discussed the fed's more dovish stance. finally i think this holiday season was dominated by the digital economy. the internet is producing a lower standard of living, further compromised by both higher government mandated health care costs and upward spirals of rent. janet yellen isn't why we would go into recession. i think the fed woke up to reality immediately before the election, and we're all the better for it. stick with cramer. it. stick with cramer. (cell phone rings) where are you? well the squirrels are back in the attic. mom? your dad won't call an exterminator... can i call you back, mom? he says it's personal this time... if you're a mom, you call at the worst time. it's what you do. if you want to save fifteen percent or more on car insurance, you switch to geico. it's what you do. where are you? it's very loud there. are you taking a zumba class? i take pictures of sunrises, but with my back pain i couldn't sleep and get up in time. then i found aleve pm.
all day people ask if the rally is real. you'll know if it's real if the dollar keeps going down and two if it broaden to technology. we did expect that great quarter. i like to say there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to find it right here on "mad money." i'm jim cramer, and i will see
it is efriday, march 18th. coming up on "early today," is old man winter go having another massive winter? and a mounting effort to stop donald trump in the race for the white house. plus, soon every car in the land will have this special safety measure. march madness is in full swing, plus a whole lot more as we head into the weekend. "early today" starts right now. things got heated fast during a congressional hearing over who's to blame over the toxic water crisis. and the calling for heads to roll, nbc's stephanie gausk reports. >> reporter: with the children of flint still unable to drink the water.
>> if you want to do the curages thing, then you two should resign. >> people who put dollars over the fundamental safety of the people do not belong in government and you need to resign too, governor snyder. >> the head of the epa and governor of michigan were hammered over the led in flint's waiter. >> you need to take responsibility because you screwed up and messed up 100,000 people's lives. >> reporter: every resident in flint was exposed to dangerous levels of led while officials insisted it was safe. but the democrat from pennsylvania hit back hard. >> you not in a medically induced coma for a year. and i've had about enough of your false contrigz and your phoney apologies.