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tv   Charlie Rose  PBS  October 31, 2013 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT

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coggan. >> rose: welcome to the program, we begin this evening with the editors of the economist magazine, john micklethwait, zanny minton beddoes and philip coggan, looking at the global economy. to. >> if you look at history, it would be very weird if you had this amount of this amount of economic dislocation without some degree of political reaction. >> what is staggering to me about the way people are looking at politics is everyone is expecting nothing to change, and that should be the most surprising, if historians come back and look at this period and we still end with the same parties doing the same things, that would be truly extraordinary, because that would be against everything else which has ever happened in any other period of economic dislocation on this scale. >> rose: we conclude this evening with the comedian aziz ansari and for me doing the live
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special with the very first time i felt bad in a weird way, where i talk about how scared i would be to have a kid or how scared the idea of marriage was to me, and i could see people in the audience like thank you for saying that. i am your age or i am older or younger and feel that same thing and feel that same pressure you feel and it is scary to me. >> rose: the global economy and a new breed of comic when we continue. funding for charlie rose was provided by the following. >>
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captioning sponsored by rose communications from our studios in new york city, this is charlie rose. >> we should be doing everything we can to keep families from falling into poverty and build more ladders of opportunity to help people who are willing to work hard climb out of poverty. >> rose: we begin tonight with the global economy, the united states, japan and europe seem to be gaining back some of that lost momentum emerging markets, are witness ago different fate, the international monetary fund cuts its projection for emerging market growth for the year 2013, china is expected to reach its official growth target of 7.5 percent, the country's leadership is facing questions on the sustainability of its
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economic model. joining me now to talk about these trend are distinguished guests from the economist magazine, they are ed. >> john micklethwait. >> zanny economic editor and philip coggan, capital markets editor, thank you, thank you, thank you. this is becoming a kind of annual occurrence for this show and i thank you for your participation. so let's talk about five years after the worst crisis we have seen. where do you think the global economy is? i in begin with you, john. >> i think the global economy is in a period of uncertainty at the moment, actually. all the countries you talked about, in america people are worried about what is happening in washington and dysfunction there, here in china, you have got the big plan coming up there and people worried about just exactly how much of a soft or hard land dog we go into, and those are the good ones, and then when you look at europe, particularly the euro zone you see just basically nothing is happening, very much less than we hoped and so there is not a
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disastrous, in some ways it is better than last year but it is not a particular feeling of hope, it is a lot of uncertainty out there. >> rose: why the uncertainty? >> uncertainty usually goes back to government, that is what the, he is immediately disagreeing, but i do think -- no, i do think it is generally in each case if you look at america you have got the sense that it is do to do with congress and the white house and is it going to work. if you go to china there, that is just a general sense of what is, what are they up to and how many people is he going to remove, will he push this on corruption and what exactly is going to happen when you see criminal money coming out of china which some associate with leadership, it is just all a bit sort of quizzical at the moment. >> rose: now is there a question as to whether trying to shift from this export economy, economic model to a consumer, domestic man model going to be able to kick in as fast as they
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expected? >> i think the chinese, that is a huge issue for them, at the moment, actually i think their main focus is still actually trying to make the government work better. it is about trying to deal with corruption, if you look at the things that people are complaining about in china, it is not really that much that, about the economic if you look at things, really about how good their schools are and about why they can't give good healthcare and they have to give bottles of whiskey to get their kids in school and it is that stuff i am picking dismiewp i notice article after article where china is the biggest this and biggest that, you know, and in a sense of whether it has t to too with the biggest import or export of some -- >> i think next year, i think next year you will see a bit of that changing in two ways, i think next year you are going to see first the sense that the american economy, even if it doesn't grow as fast as everybody sees there are some numbers where you take absolute amount of american contribution
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to economic growth it might be bigger than china's by the time you put it all together because of the bigger economy, i think and you are raising american companies at the back of the top of things we do a list of the most valuable companies. three years ago the top ten were almost allstate owned, state capitalists entities and now nine out of the ten are american. and one reason why is because people, investors, when they look at these big stake companies they wonder how well they are run. i think american capitalism is sort of coming back, although with some problems and i think american government although you have the dysfunction there i think you will see dysfunction in china. >> rose: are you disagreeing? >> i don't disagree that much, i disagree a little bit. i think there are three big questions facing the word for next year, one is, is the u.s. economy going to accelerate? it has been -- we waited for accel investigation to come and it happened, is it going to happen next year and if you optimistic about next year and you think the ims at the beginning of this show, their optimism for next
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year to the extent they have any is based on ac acceleration in e u.s. and will the u.s. economy accel investigation? i think the u.s. private sector is doing pretty good, deleveraging and got through the hangover from the financial crisis the question is will fiscal policy be sensible and will the u.s. stop dragging down growth with too much tightening. >> china i think you are absolutely right it is a big question, china the big story has been the slowdown in china, we used to have double digit growth rates and now seven. >> rose: i know people who are skeptical about the growth. >> absolutely, the question -- people are not really, ah, they are china it is okay to be okay or china bad and there is going to be a hard landing in china, i am kind of in the middle of this because china is secularly slowing, it is slowing because of demographic reasons and slowing because it is shifting from an investment economy to consumption economy and slowing because it is trying to deal with the credit bubble, it all means a slower economy, i don't think there will be catastrophic hard landing because i think the
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basic strength of chinese economy has is it saves more than invests and the government has the capacity to do a massive financial bailout if it needs so so ultimately there is a floor beneath growth won't fall. and europe, every time we had a conversation. >> rose: yes. >> we kind have moneyed on and i have moaned on about europe, the euro zone quit shrinking earlier this year and will it start growing any .. in one percent or just below or is there going to be more of an accelerate and real rebound in europe and i am not very optimistic about that but if it would it is great for the economy. >> rose: i didn't hear what you said about the japan economy. >> nothing is happening for 20 years it is a big over sight, you know the japanese economy in the first half of this year was the fastest growing. >> rose: that's why i asked the question. >> exactly and the question for next year is, do they build on the successes of th the success this year or shoot themselves in the foot, one risk is the
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raising of the consumption tax will slow the economy and have stimulus to counter it will it work and the second is will they do a structural reforms, the third quiver of options are based, of economics, the structural forms that are necessary to really put more dine mitchell into the underlying economy .. >> rose: there is the question about the u.s. economy, if you look at 2013, are he they expecting growth to be right around two percent or 2.5? >> six percent next year. >> rose: 2014. >> 2014. i think most people, most forecasters have expected an acceleration towards the end of this year that would go into 2014, thus tar we haven't seen the figures and most recent figures are pretty disappointing, the government shut down, clearly played a role in that and slowed down the fourth quarter, the question is that going to continue and are we -- you know, is the acceleration that we think should be there, because the underlying ingredients weren't there are actually going to happen and so far, i don't see that much evidence of gliet so
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philip, what are the markets telling us? >> the markets have shown they have much more confidence in the developed world as john was a saying about the big u.s. companies being much more important because the emerging markets in which everybody was placing their faith three years ago have been a terrible disappointment from the equity point of view. and the the worry, though, is ts sustainable? the markets have been kept up by central bank policy by driving interest rates so low people want to buy shares or bonds because they are the only alternative and profits have been very strong, they are at a postwar high in the u.s. relative to gdp, but they have been flat in the last quarter, and everybody is forecasting that there will be another rebound in 2014, there will be 11 percent growth in profits, but maybe there won't be. it is pretty optimistic to forecast continued growth when you are at an all-time high for profits relative to gdp. and when a large part of the world appears to be slowing, if you look at forecasts for world trade growth they have bee revised down as well so a lot of companies in the west have built their strategies on expanding into emerging markets, and
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increasing the market share there because things are tough at home, well, if things slow down in emerging markets i think we might get more warning signs out of companies as we go into 2014 and that might be a worry for the markets. >> so what do markets want to see from central bankers? >> i think they are junky. >> like, they panicked over the summer because of this dreaded tapering. >> rose: right. which didn't happen. >> exactly, that is not the fed reversing, it is not the fed stopping the -- it is just slowing the buying, so as soon as the fed said, well okay we are not going to do it this early then the markets recovered again. so i think that is the real danger, the fundamentals aren't that great, there is a big dichotomy between what is happening in the economy and what is happening in the markets. >> rose: that's exactly, speak to that, why is that? >> because monetary policy is so supportive, that's part of the plan is to try and increase confidence in financial markets
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and get business investing. so far they have done that but business hasn't invested as much as we would like. >> part of th to the reason for that is the central bankers have had to make up for fiscal policy, to not put too fine of a point on it, we are in a weak economy and a lot of excess capacity, unemployment is high and you can get fast err growth and stimulate through fiscal policy but the economy had a big crag from fiscal policy and had to do more so part of what is going on you had the central bank is having to do more because the politicians have done less. >> rose: but central bank in europe saved the euro zone, didn't it? >> yes, it did and european shares have done well over the last year as pelle people have recovered, but if the long-term growth rate of the europe economy is one percent or so then all the growth the european business has to be outside of the continent and in emerging markets, that's the big worry, if emerging markets have moved from growing at seven or eight percent to four or five
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percent, it is pretty good by our standards but still suggests that global gdp isn't going to grow as fast as businesses -- >> he did this sort of cover saying i will -- i will back you come what may and the politicians basically have done very close to nothing, even in the very, ver very beginning of things which is to have a banking union, which everyone please would be the bear, bare nine you need on the currents and individual countries staying with that, they have done this sort of stuff, at least some stuff, france hasn't done anything and so you have this thing of like carrying people for quite a long while and nothing happening. >> rose: what about the spectre of the geopolitical world and its impact on the global economy? >> i think that is a bit more, i think there is an element in that, as i think there is some degree of risk. you have talked about japan, and talked about china, and you look at -- if you have a slowing
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china some of the things san my is talking about happen, if you have japan which has a more nationalistic edge under our bay, then those two things begin to push into each other and it is very much the stuff that, behind people's -- which is not visible, it is the stuff that japanese children are taught at school, they are aren't taught in school and the stuff chinese children are taught at school, so the japanese don't discover any of the things and the chinese discover far too much about it and both countries play with this nationalism, and that is an obvious danger zone, you have other throughout the world where it doesn't do good. >> europe as well there is a quarter of a third of the european that is willing to vote for extreme parties and we saw that, a quarter to a third, in italy or the golden dawn in greece, and the is just won an election in france, and could be -- and could be the strongest
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party on the right within a year or two. so you have got to figure out the, the economics that are not growing and we see this happening in the 1930s or 1970's people get very dissatisfied and they look for something different, they have been fed a diet of austere at this by the mainstream parties and looking elsewhere and this could be another part of political turmoil not just extreme parties get in but normal parties pander to them because of immigration or on business or whatever. >> rose: nationalistic issues. >> exactly. >> i think exact you, a actually you are right but i woul would d another point, not just economies are not growing fast enough and slow growth it is the political economy of slow growth at a time when inequality is widening and there is the gains from the growth there is overwhelmingly to few people so for the very person in a lot of the rich world, the stagnating or even falling, that is just not a sustainable situation for years and years and year in a democracy. >> rose: yes.
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a lot of politicians have dealt careers on making scapegoats of the dispossessed in an economic downturn. >> he has written a book called the last vote in democracy is in trouble. that is a big problem. >> rose: i will let him tell me what is the theme of the book. >> you have the two threats, the bottom up one people are dissatisfied with politicians and ratings of congress, for example, they vote less and vote for extremists more and then the second element is the top down one which is their decisions are no longer being taken by elected representatives, the powerful people are technocrats, central bankers, fiscal policy in europe is going to be approved by brussels and you have international courts and the imf and everybody so people feel that, you know, they are powerless and when they feel powerless that's when they tend to buy the support of putin, chavez type figure who says trust me i am a strong man and it is all going to foreigners and that's a worry. >> if you look at history it would be very weird if you had this amount of this amount of
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economic dislocation and no degree of political change. >> and the way people are looking at politics is everyone is expecting nothing to change, and that should be the most surprising, if historians come back and look at this period in with and we still end up with the same parties doing the same things that would be truly extraordinary, because that would be against everything else which ever happened in any other period of economic dislocation on this scale, i was in spain after 50 percent youth unemployment. >> rose: and that is -- >> and going on and on and on and so forth, they are sticking with it. mr. cameron's job in a moment is going to be slightly happier because the rich economy is doing a little better but again we will tell you repeatedly it is driven by house prices and things like that, and they have not u tip, nationalist party which could be top of the european elections next year. so that is another threat that the reason they have painted themselves into the corner and calling a referendum on bring, referendum on british membership
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in the european union they are trying to head off -- >> britain, many people would think the most predictable country in the world when it comes to politics with one of the greatest, most successful political sheanls which is the conservative party, it is possible in the next two, three years that britain could lose scotland, britain could be in the european union and if they have a big vote in the european union the conservative party could split and end up with a situation where cameron wins the most seats, but doesn't quite get the right amount of seats to form a majority so the liberals and labor come together and that would be a huge amount of changes. >> rose: who is the america's energy projection going to change the global economy? >> well, it could mean two things. first of all, it could mean that the american manufacturing will come back. it will be a great cost advantage to american manufacturers to have such a low cost source of energy here. >> rose: yes. >> that will boost the american economy. but it might lead to some
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instability, at the geopolitical level because it should mean america is less interested in what happens in the middle east as what happened before and the syrian debate shows that. >> rose: and one interesting thing about that is, it has been expressed by prince or at fay e piece in the wall street your honor is whether saudi arabia and the countries, the emirates, have the -- believe their relationship with america is changing and that they are viewed differently, and they trust the american powerless. >> i think in economic terms, the biggest impact is likely to be as philip says to what degree the lower cost of energy here gives a competitive advantage, particularly energy intensive manufacturing. >> rose: right. >> in geo strategic terms i would expect the change in america's attitude to be -- a big one. >> rose:. >> and the second, actually,
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would be to do with russia and it think it depends on the potential for natural gas changes the western european reliance on an intense relationship with russia and that over the next few years could also be a big, big shift and i think frankly i mean bad news for -- >> i have done a piece, and when he was -- his views on shell it will gas we are not enthusiastic but to some extent he is in the same position as the saudis, this thing came out of nowhere and just like it has been most fantastic go than stay of america despite the tact but the government had very little to do with it, in russia it is it really caught them flatfooted because suddenly you look at shale and you imagine what that could do to western europe which would take it out of russia's kind of energy stranglehold. there is a lot of things which are bad for putin in this, i really think that. >> rose: i often ask this question, what are the change agents of our time having to do with politics, economics and culture? and clearly, one is energy, you know, another is
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technology. are there other change elements that are out there that we have to understand and get our understanding of the ramifications? what would they be, philip? >> i think definitely there is a shift in economic growth away from the west, the indebted aging west to the younger, obviously not in the case of china but generally. >> rose: or japan. >> and if you think about military power, military power depends on the ability to finance it, and project it, and there were people saying about egypt that, at our conference is egypt could rely on a solid amount of money from america and now -- >> rose: and the saudis jumped in. >> exactly so the people they turned to for guidance will be the saudis because they hold the purse strings, so that affects the global influence of any power just as bring contain which was extremely powerful in the 19th century once it lost its money in the various world wars and much of its global influence and go back to france and early centuries in spain
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before that, once your economy declines it is hard to project global power. >> i would agree, the one i would add is demographics. >> demographics changes, it is inevitable, inex-orable and we don't pay enough attention .. the european labor force starts shrinking germany is going to lose the same number of workers as though in the state, a huge number, china is aging rapidly as you know than the u.s., the countries that have a potential demographic boom, the indias and north africas are also parts of the world where they have huge problems getting work enters the labor force, these big demographic shifts if you are looking for something that is a change agent i think that is absolutely it. >> rose: and the reason for demographic history is that young people give you what? >> well, if you are in technical terms you go through a sweet spot, whe when your birthrate gs down and more people working relative to kids and relative to old people, then you are at a kind of time where you have the best hope for rapid economic
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growth, you have a big labor force relative to the rest of the population and as the population ages you get more and more older people and have to look after them and they are no longer productive members of the work force. >> there will be only one and a half for every pensioner and 1.2 japanese people working age for every pensioner so if you think of the potential tax burden of proof zero burden of that kind of shift where in america you will be well over two, where europe is now. >> rose: two working people for every -- >> yes more than two. >> and japan go back to 1970 it was at more than eight people working for every pensioner so the decline this has been incredible. and of course one way of dealing with that is immigration, but if you have a lot of immigration that creates all sorts of other political issues, which can lead to the rise of extremism again. >> and strange small things to give you an example, kor i onteith i can't which has been this fantastically successful company one of the best education systems in the world, education is a strange thing, at 18 you take one exam and that
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one exam makes a gigantic difference in that life if you get in particular universities you have much of a better chance of getting into a good company that runs the economy, what is happening is people are preparing manically for that test and they prep, women as a result have fewer children because the cost of trying to teach people this and the result of a career is people who often are successful but running out of people, the birthrate is going down so it is a weird thing, it is not just a standard economics of people getting more successful, and there are all kinds of straings quilts within it that are making a difference as to how things turn out. >> rose: i remember talking to yu in singapore where the demographics were changing and they had a certain attitude about immigration, which they had to change because they migration for their own economy. >> i think it is very, very important, in the developing of
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what -- what is happening in asia, and possibly what is going to happen in the rest of the world, because people are get getting a look personally within china, china follows much more relentlessly what is happening in singapore in terms of how it is trying to rule its government than anywhere else. >> rose: it is like i mean 500 chinese, just to stay in singapore for a while and come back. >> yes. >> rose: and telling what they found. >> it is strange, as you know, it is an agreeably litigious place, the chinese like a place which has some degree of order, and -- >> rose: the, a degree of democracy -- >> what is true is that the chinese in leadership training college is they send people out and silicon valley and wall street and to london, and for government they extend to scandinavia and singapore and korea and chile, not to washington. they have no interest in that. >> rose: we know why, don't
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we. >> we think that is a big thing. >> rose: what are they looking to learn? >> they are looking to learn, they are trying to, do you have this drama at the moment where the west government has, is too big and we are trying to work out a da a deal with it. in asia they are all trying to build welfare states and trying to find ways in which to do that that doesn't repeat the same mistakes we do. >> rose: because, i mean, obviously they had no security blanket, they had no entitlement programs and no safety net, and people -- but they didn't have it, therefore, everybody -- their savings rate was so high because everybody felt responsible for their own security. >> that's part of it, and another part of why china raising rates is so high because -- the scale at which in is lapping is absolutely stunning, i mean the chinese have put more -- extended their pensions to far more people than are in the u.s. social security system in the last few years and extended healthcare and creating a national health service from
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scratch in a very small number of engineered, the indians are increasing dramatically increasing the safety net and i think that is in terms of big picture trend, whether the asians manage to create a sustainable welfare state, given their demographics, given what they are trying to build up, can they do what we failed to do in some sense? >> rose: is there somewhere, i mean what is the new emerging economic model then? or is there one for government? >> i think in terms of government. >> rose: you say the chinese are talking to the scandinavians and someone else and someone else. >> stand knave i can't is a very sexy place because scandinavia is the one place in the west which, in some ways it reached the future first, it went to a place where it ended up with too far big of a government and downsized it but the interesting thing is the socialist scandinavians do a lot of things people won't do so when they supply health services, when they supply health or education they are hav very happy with for profit people doing it, as long
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as it is free, they usually make people pay a tiny charge, as long as it is close to entry to american standards they don't mind if companies are doing it, so all that matters is service gets delivered you don't get the teacher unions elsewhere because they hmm went bust the whole thing ban to change and i in at this scandinavian system is interesting and singapore is interesting and a whole variety of places look intriguing from that point of view, the places do not look intriguing is america, where not enough is happening in the federal level and western europe. >> rose: what do you make of the j.p. morgan settlement and -- or lack of settlement and the differences in regulatory power in different places? >> well, i think it is the reckoning coming due after five years, people felt dissatisfied nobody went to jail on wall street and now the authorities are getting more confident that the banking system has recovered from the worst and can stand a few fines. and perhaps some unwise statements from various banking
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leaders about how the crisis was behind them and they didn't have to apologize anymore. but you are right, i think the problem with the finance sector says. >> rose: never say that when will is a prosecutor out there. >> the problem the finance faces is triple jeopardy, not just the regulators, they face civil suits in america and then they face international suits, so they can't be sure if they settle in america they won't be covered in europe or vice versa and that makes it difficult, with jp morgan you can argue many of these problems emerged from the purchase of washington mutual and bear stearns,. >> rose: yes. >> if you are a big bank asked in the next crisis to take on some struggling bank you might well not do it. >> rose: i have heard some of them say they wouldn't do it. >> and that is a war i worry we have going forward, maybe we will solve it all by having the banks have a lot more capital but you need to be very confident if businesses going forward have no limit on the amount they have t to pay in fis -- >> rose: do you believe that the lessons have been learned,
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two lessons, number one the lessons have been learned in terms of what happened with the sub prime and then the reforms that came forth so that it is less likely to happen or with a whatever has been done in no way will prevent another crisis like this from happening? >> with he have these crisis and we have in history you can go back to the 17th and 18th centuries and it is when you get too much credit growth and borrowing and a bubble in asset prices and everybody gets over confident, we may be a few years down the line before something similar happens, uh we have got, you know, the potential again emerging, even in london, the housing market. >> rose: two bubbles recently, one was tech, the tech bubble, and then we had the housing bubble and all of that. what is likely to be the next bubble? >> i think it will be property again. it is nearly always property, it is easy to borrow against, you are always seeing, you know, ridiculous prices in london, you are seeing probably a boom in germany of all places, to hong kong you will find there is
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massive property price rise there is, so that is where people find it easiest to speculate and that is one of the problems, in monetary policy you create a lot of nice cheap money and no promise you get to build businesses and sometimes it is speculation and that's a worry. >> rose: exactly and you see a lot of companies going public that don't have earning streams that is a that is a worry. >> yes. >> rose: what is, in terms of the world community, what is the -- when they look at america and the crisis in washington, do they say this is a failure of presidential leadership or do they say, this president had the misfortune to have to deal with the crisis of 2005 and the political composition of the congress who came out of that? >> i think in this most recent episode, most foreign leaders who came and actually happened just at the annual meetings of the international monetary fund, every central banker from the in the world arrived in washington,
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d.c., and i think it was just a lot of head scratching, a lot of these countries deal with real fiscal crises, they say why are these guys creating one. >> rose: right. and threatening default -- >> i think she put it pretty well that foreign leaders were confused, bemused, but that they were not amused. and i think that is kind of -- i talked to a lot of people during that time and there was a real sense of, i cannot believe this is happening. what are these guys doing? there was some fear, some fear that, you know, the politicians in the, section simply would -- they wouldn't realize quite how horrible things would be if, certainly if there was a default, but there was a sense of america is being irresponsible, it has this position as a world currency, has exorbitant privilege that comes with it and this kind of behavior was a view i heard a lot is just not consistent with that. >> rose: but nobody seems to
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possess as might be suggested even from the chinese that the dollar would somehow be reia placed as a solitary reserve currency? >> i the think that has gone back for the moment. i do think that the rest of the world when they look at congress, and they look at obama i think on the specific thing of what happened in washington this time around, they tend to blame the republicans more than obama so they tend to -- >> i think outside you just pick it up from talking to politicians there is a general sympathy with him. i think the area where they have less sympathy with him is in terms of geopolitical leadership. they don't, to some extent the george bush excuse is now over, if he is, if his great achievement is to be somewhat nicer or more polite and get out of iraq or afghanistan and. >> rose: and to talk more. >> and talk more and listen more which he is good at listening, other people -- >> rose: most of the leaders you hear in terms of whatever -- >> everyone's cellphones conversations -- >> rose: no, no.
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>> it is always a notion with respect to america that, you know, they don't respect us, enough so that they listen to us. >> i think a lot of other leaders see obama as somewhat detached from things, you look at what happens in the middle east and the a arab spring and you compare what happened with the arab spring and obama and what happened in eastern europe opened up with george bush senior and you don't see a guiding hand. you don't when you get to asia you don't get a sense that china immediately knows what is going on, the americans, and the chinese now, henry kissinger, at least, it doesn't seem to be jetting through as much and i think the other bit is, even regions you would expect america to there some sort some sort of clout in, like latin america, there is this element whereby america is not immediately visible. >> rose: right. >> and they are not yearning for a degree of george w. bush again but thehehe would like some elet of this is where we want to go and this is the way we can do it. >> i think you are right. i think it is concern about
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american intro version, american apathy, american lack of engagement is a bigger concern than not listen to us. >> you want people to listen to you, and there is always leader will whine about that, but the bigger and broader concern is that the u.s., which the world relies on the u.s., everybody relies on the u.s., the u.s. is unwilling both in national security or geopolitical arena and in the economic arena, is not a, as focused as it might be on things of the rest of the world. >> rose: what is the most surprising thing you heard at this conference when you had all of these smart people talk something. >> one is, i did two pans focused a lot on europe, priefg optimism, people very up beat about europe, i was very surprised about that. the second was a lecture from alan greenspan and he argued that the reason firms are not investing now is because they are concerned about the growth of entitlements and the deficits
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down the road. >> rose: yes. >> yes, i didn't expect that. i thought that was a surprisingly bad argument. >> rose: i was going to say. harry summers is out now making this argument at every forum he can that america's problems is a focus on entitlements and entitlement reform is the wrong place jerks got to figure a way ourselves, you know, what is restricting growth? >> you could also -- he had to make assumptions of how the tax revenues will come in as well, and people are optimists and all of that, i think the really staggering thing to outsiders of what actually happened in the shutdown and so on is america's real problems weren't anything that anybody really discussed, america's problem is it continues to tax as if it is a small government, and it is a big government country and entitlements are a part of that and until americans come to terms with that, it will be very, very difficult to have, to go on without these things. >> rose: so the cover of this magazine, what is it saying?
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>> it is saying that what is happening in america, which is interesting in capitalism is that up to now, when you think of american capitalism we seem to think of big companies but actually what has prospered in america over the last few years has been the growth of other forms, like limited partnerships, reit's, originally, real estate investment trust, special vehicles like we where us the example of kindle morgan, very, very smart guy, set up an energy company, now worth 109 billion. each time that it distributes, it has to distribute all the cash in that year, though a special corporate structures which are set up in order to get around tabs and regulation or bullied into them you could argue by tax and regulation, and what worries -- it is both inspiring, it is good that america is creative mus enough o come up with the new structures but also worrying to the extent you want capitalism on the whole not to be hidden away in strange partnerships, which tend to be ones that favor the rich and goes back to the zanny's point
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about the one percent and america is incredibly invent if the and we have numbers in there about the sheer number of money raised for these sort of vehicles which are not the ones where we talked about when we talked about valuable companies listed on the stock markets in normal ways. this is -- coming up with new reasons and driven by regulation and being driven by tax and if you have a sensible tax system in company, corporate tax it is a much lower corporate tax or perhaps no corporate tax at all but no exemptions then things would be easier. >> rose: thank you very much, the congratulations upon the conference and good to see you as always. back in a moment, stay with us. >> third stand-up special and i want to release in a unique interesting way, lay jay-z sold a million albums like he partnered up with a phone company. >> he bundled up with another product. >> i already have it. bugles, hear me out, hear me out. we gets bugles touy 1 million copies of your internal and put
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on u.s., be drives and the usb drivesin side the bugles and you are like what is that? is that a u.s., be, usb in my bugle. >> rose: he is a, aziz ansari is a completed grant and stars in the nbc series parks and recreation and he has been in the film, this is the end, funny people, and get him to the greek. rolling stone magazine called him the funniest man under 30. this friday he will release his third comedy special "buried alive", here is a look at his life performance at the miriam theatre in philadelphia. >> and now i want to have video cameras on the phones and everything to get videos of babies, every single video i got is exactly the same, though, kids shows up on the screen, uh, uh, uh, uh, and end of clip. that's the amazing footage they needed to share with everyone. and where is his first step. look i walk all the time. i am not impressed. i am going to start sending my own videos, look at this
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(bleep). brian has nothing on this. he maz no swag her his step and almost fell down after three steps. i can (bleep) high step and run if i want to i can even tiptoe behind brian and trip him and push him down. >> rose: please welcome to this table for the first time, aziz ansari. >> thank you so much for having me. >> rose: funny stuff. >> thank you very much. >> rose: you said "buried alive" is about three things, babies, marriage and love. >> yeah, i think that is the kind of the big themes. >> if you can talk to them and make those things funny you have it made. >> yeah, that is what everyone, everyone lives deals with those things in at some point or at least ponders them and my older stand-up specials i feel like was more just random funny bits or stories that happened to me, and this one, i was hitting 30 and those things started entering my life, seeing them in other people and my friends and stuff and that is kind of what inspired the personal. >> rose: one told us this is
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the best stan stand-up you haver done. >> i think i have released two of them, and delicious, and this one is "buried alive" and another one i have written that i am going to tour next year, i think the other two, i just have become a better comedian and, you know, i have done it for longer and -- >> rose: what do you do better? >> i think there is like ideas and stuff i have wanted to talk about maybe a few years ago, but i didn't have the skill to figure out how to con disrai them until i had a few more years the my belt. >> rose: it is a fascinating thing for me, at least, how, you know, the evolving skill setness that a good comedian incorporates into the delivery. i mean, obviously you assume timing is crucial. >> uh-huh. >> rose: secondly, some instinct for what is funny and not funny. and some instinct, i think, to be able to speak to the audience in a way that they think you talking just to them. >> yes, i think that is -- that is a huge part of it, of where
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you are speaking to the audience and they are laughing, but they are also like, wow, i have had that same thought before. >> rose: exactly. >> and i have never heard anyone say this and for me doing the very live special is the first time i really felt that in such a strong way i am sitting talking about how scared i would be to have a kid or how scared the idea of marriage was to me and i could see people in the audience like thank you for saying that, i am your age or i am older or younger and i feel that same thing and i feel that same pressure you feel and it is scary to me. >> rose: in fact you said that the theme for this, the tag line for the special is, 30 comes at you fast. >> yeah. true. but you know what i have realized, as i have been 30 for a little while, like it doesn't really matter, you know, i think that pressure of like oh i need to get married or all of that stuff, that is only put on by yourself if you are a person that says i need to get married by this age and a family by this age then that stuff happens if you are more like i am going toly by life and deal with these
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things as i come and maybe, you know, me and the special i talk about how scared i would be to get married or have a baby, but who knows maybe i will meet someone who makes me totally change all my ideas about that. >> rose:. >> that's what you hope? >> maybe. >> rose: there is also this, you have a fascination with modern technology. >> >> yes, i do. the next job in writing is really a lot about love in the modern era, in the age of technology and i just have been thinking about that a lot, you know, when i was writing this new material, i was a single guy, and i was just started thinking about the whole way our culture operates for a single person now, so much is hike text messaging and things like that, and is using those communication mediums changing the way we treat each other and i think it does. >> how so? >> well, i think i have gathered this there talking to older people and stuff, you know, in the past, when a guy asked a girl out, it was way different,
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you would have to work up this counsel and call her on the phone, and it would be a special thing to get asked out, right? >> rose: yeah. >> it would feel like a special thing for the woman to get the call, the guy would have to work up the waive i are and now it is much different, now it is like, umar farouk abdulmutallab, you are out >> there are so many guys text messaging, not braver and it is more casual so in the past it was like a way more special thing to get asked out, now it is a much more common thing, so it is less valued and you are also not hearing someone's voice and not seeing someone in person and really just seeing a bubble so i think people treat each other like bubbles rather than people, and i think text messaging also is a medium in general where it is easier to be ruder to people. >> rose: true. >> and when you factor all of that stuff together, it ultimately ends up in we are all just being weird to each other. >> rose: right. your parents are independent granderson immigrants. >> where. >> rose: settled in south carolina? >> yeah. they originally i grew up in south carolina but they just
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moved to north carolina a few years ago. >> rose: how is public school for you? >> well, i went to a private school because the public schools in south carolina are notoriously on the bottom of the, you know, 48, which attorney a private school for first through tenth grade and 11th and twelfth grade i went to a kind of interesting public boarding school that they called the governor's school for science and math. >> rose: i know about the governor's school. >> yeah and it was really cool for me because it had kids from different parts of the state and even though it seemed like that wouldn't be that much more diverse than kid just from the city it really was, kids from cities and stuff exposed to different things and it was, you know, a more advanced course work and -- >> rose: going back to the governor's school and the people that knew you then would you say he was the funniest guy in the class. >> i was pretty funny i remember there used to be from eight to ten you lived in like dorms and from eight to 10:00 you would have to stay in your room and
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studied and from 10:00 to 11:00 you could come down and hang out so 10:00 to 11:00 people would be congregating sitting zero berchts and tell stories and stuff like that, so, you know, i think that was kind of like, you know, i always enjoyed telling stories and things of that nature which is kind of a form of stand-up in a way so i was funny in that regard but i also had other interests like, you know, i was really into playing guitar for a while and i was at a deejaying for a little bit. >> rose: so how did you find comedy? >> i was in college at nyu and it was a summer, my freshman year, and a few people told me like you are really funny have you ever thought about doing. >> rose: stand-up. >> yes, talent night or something and i did one at in the west village at the comedy cellar and i was really into it and i remember as soon as i finished my first set it was like i know i can do it better the next time and i really just thought of it like the way someone thinks when they start playing an instrument or something i wanted to get really
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good at it, i didn't have any thoughts of acting or, you know, doing theatre. >> rose: i just want to get good at this thing. >> yeah. >> rose: because i like doing it and i know i can get better. >> exactly, yes. >> rose: and what was the next step? >> i just kept doing it for years and, you know, toiling away and eventually as i started getting better, you know, i would get noticed and, you know, doors just continued to open until, you know, i am here. >> rose: is there much ethnicity in comedy today? >> i think overall,. >> rose: some background, diversity of background? >> well, i think in stand-up, yeah, i think it attracts like interesting people and i think like on the comedy landscape on tv and stuff i think you just notice way more minorities, i mean, i feel like every sitcom has one indian dude in it or one indian woman and it is interesting because i grew up, i don't remember seeing an indian person on tv, you know, unless maybe like a random where they did like a very tacky caricature where a guy at a gas station but
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to see like, you know, the prevalence of seeing indian people in shows and stuff to me is really cool, even me like a few years ago i remember when i saw mindy kaley on the office it is a big deal to me it is like oh wow she is regular on the show and really fun he the jokes are not about her ethnicity or about who she is. >> rose: her character. >> yes her character and like a great thing to point to and, you know, me similar to her, almost like like a step that has not, you know, stereotyped humor and things like that and i think people really appreciate that. >> doing things and breaking new ground has a connection to the audience that -- >> i mean, obviously chris still, you know, comics like dave chapelle, louis bk, and, you know, i try to watch comics when i can, i don't watch a ton because i kind of like to stay in he own bubble and not get too number influenced and i think they are trying to do great jobs. >> you restrict what you might
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watch because you might be influenced. >> i like to stand on my own head and not see other stuff too much, i still see, you know, friends of mine perform and stuff and even those guys are also super famous but i have friends like this guy hannibal buries and michelle parrett at this i think are super funny and i am always impressed and try -- >> rose: and chris was your idol wasn't he? >> chris when i was growing up, yes those first two stand-up specials i was obsessed with and still probably could recite both of them from start to finish and, yeah, i definitely -- >> rose: chris has, i mean chris has a kind of competence on stage. >> uh-huh. >> rose: is that something you need? >> well, some comics don't have that confident of a per so na, i think my persona is probably closer to that confidence, you know, i mean for me like by the time i am filming like a special like that or doing like a theatre tour i have worked on that stu so much i am very confident and know what is know it is going to be a strong show or i wouldn't have booked the
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tour. >> what does net flix means? >> net flix, i think net flix is interesting because it seems like the main kind of delivery service of content that matches up to what people actually want to do which is just watch what they want to watch when they want to watch it and my other specials have ended up on net flix after certain windows, the last one i did on $5 direct release and people could buy it for $5 and few months later it was on come difficult central and net flix and i knew it was on net flix and it was just a jump -- >> rose: do you make a lot of money when you sell it for $5 a hit? >> yes, you can make a decent amount of money but the problem is you end up kind of just preaching to the choir. and i am very lucky i have gained a decent fan base so i can make a decent amount of money doing that but at a certain point you want new people that have never seen your stuff to want to watch it. >> rose: how do you get them? >> i think something like net flix there is a bigger chance of getting someone who just sees like a random clip and just
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watch, it is easy to watch something on there where to go on my web site and pay $5 and do all of this stuff, if you have never heard of me or, you know, whatever, it might be less likely for you to do that. >> rose: we talked to a fair must be of stand-up comedians and always seems to me if they are doing something else and they feel their urge to go back to stand-up, for whatever reason, jerry seinfeld would be a good example they test the material out they, material out and they go to smallest clubs until they feel good about the material and hitting the road again. >> yes. >> rose: that is the only way to do it is test it out with an audience. >> yes the material for "buried alive" and the next special i am working on now, yes, i drop in in small clubs in new york and la and, you know, it is a total surprise that people know i am coming and workn't it slowly and eventually comes an hour i am confident in. >> rose: i want to show you a couple of things you have done, a couple of bitesly skip to two and 3, okay. roll 2 first. here is what you said about life
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without marriage. >> imagine if marriage didn't exist and you are a guy and you asked a woman to get married, imagine what that conversation would be like, you are like, so, you know, we have been hanging out for a long time and spending a lot of time together and everything. i want to keep doing that until you are dead. >> what? >> i want to keep hanging out with you until one of us dies. >> butt this ring on your finger so people know we have an arrangement. >> who is that guy? >> he is a priest. >> do you swear to god you won't back out of this deal? >> what is that. >> it is a cake with two little dolls that look like us. >> >> now, feed a little bit to me.
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>> this is really strange. >> why are we doing this? >> tax purposes. >> tax purposes, yeah. and the next one we want to look at is where, well this is about white babies, take a look at this. >> i am not ready for that kind of responsibility. someone come up to me with a baby like hey look at this baby. >> i would be like i have my own things going on, i don't have time to look at this little brown baby. >> and in this scenario i am assuming it is a little indian baby, if it is a white baby i would say that is disgusting, white babies are gross, i'm sorry. they are like regular babies that aren't ripe yet. >> rose: do you write all the time? do you co constantly wri? >> i do, at a certain point, you know, sometimes i would take a break from like writing the stand-up and then i realized that is dumb and i should just keep going because you get in a groove and, you know, even with
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this new special, i am kind of at the point where it is kind of close to being done and then i just hit like a new topic i really want to get into. i went to a friend's wedding and, you know, i talk about marriage and how scary it is and everything and i saw my friend's wedding and his vows and the girl's vows were unbelievable, so beautiful, like everyone in the audience was really moved, and i just heard it like, wow, if i felt that, i wouldn't be scared of marriage at all. and then i just started writing about that, and about divorce and, you know, what happens when you get married and you to have doubts because that's the thing people do and i think i started doing when i write material, it is like i don't have a lot of friends -- i have like one friend that went through a divorce but that is not a thing i really know about but when i go to comedy clubs i go like hey has anyone here been divorced and i have been and start asking him about it, and ask insane things you can never asked i started asking people in every show i started saying, okay, so i would tell the story about my friend and say, so when you got
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married how did you feel? did you feel like my friend madly in love or did you have doubts. >> and it is like i had doubts, and it is an amazing thing like, you know, a friend of mine was looking at me like wow, my dad has been divorced and i don't think i have ever asked him that or even flow the answer to that, and you can talk to total strangers about it and learn these amazing things like that was the audience of the night i ask the guy that so you are 29 and got married and you had, and he said he had doubts and then why did you do it? why did you get married. >> and he said because i was lonely. >> rose: yeah. >> and i was like, oh, my god that is unbelievable. >> rose: thank you for coming. >> thank you so much. >> rose: glad to have you ever here. >> thanks so much for having me. >> rose: thank you for joining us. see you next time. >> captioning sponsored by rose communications captioned by media access group at wgbh
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