tv This Week With George Stephanopoulos ABC January 10, 2016 12:00pm-1:00pm EST
>> announcer: starting right now on abc's "this week," just three week s weeks till the first votes. donald trump still on top for the gop. but can he stop ted cruz in iowa? >> i think my record is stronger than his. >> announcer: and is this man the republican establishment's last best hope? we're one-on-one with marco rubio in an abc news exclusive. plus, hillary's surprise
surges in the early states, the gloves are off. >> we are the campaign that's going to win this election. >> announcer: senator sanders is with us live. and an exclusive inside look at what iowa voters think about both sides of the race. and a brand-new forecast on iowa and new hampshire from the man who got them all right in 2012. from abc news, "this week with george stephanopoulos" begins now. good morning. it has already been one of the most volatile and unpredictable primary campaigns ever, and now the first votes in the race for president are coming fast. with just three weeks until iowa we start out with an exclusive look at how iowa voters are thinking about this race. here's jon karl. >> reporter: with just 22 days until voting in iowa, this weekend front-runners donald trump and ted cruz barnstormed the hawkeye state. while trump still holds his
republicans. and now cruz is questioning whether trump has what it takes to win in iowa. >> it's very time intensive. it's labor intensive. you don't do it sitting back in the easy chair. tv studio in manhattan. >> reporter: an issue raised at caucusgoers in iowa conducted by frank luntz and google. abc news got an exclusive first look. >> how many of you say trump is raise your hands. he won't be happy with that. only two. how many say ted cruz will win? if trump is the nominee is there anyone in this room that would not vote for him? wow. >> i do not believe trump would put a good face on the republican party as president. >> so, you'd be prepared to see hillary clinton in the white house? >> unfortunately. >> reporter: but others find a lot to like about him. >> the man knows how to negotiate. he knows how to find the right people. >> reporter: trump's first television ad promoting his muslim ban generated the expected buzz. >> he's spot-on. the things he talked about in that ad is what is affecting
immigration and isis. >> but does he do it in a way >> all: no. >> no. >> absolutely not. >> it's more fear based. >> reporter: with this group cruz who was born in canada to an american mother is eligible appeared to backfire. >> it exposes trump as he said his strongest lawyers said it's a settled issue and >> reporter: one candidate in the back of the pack is getting a second look. >> but over the last 60 to 90 days, whose opinion of chris christie has improved? raise your hands. >> christie is incredibly articulate and thinks fast on his feet. he has dialed back his sarcastic outbursts. >> reporter: but some are skeptical of senator marco rubio. >> for me it's the whole obama thing, and i think we suffered from that the last eight years. >> i like rubio. my concern with him is the fact that he doesn't have years and years and years of experience.
was a focus group of republicans in iowa, which may be the only state in the union where donald trump doesn't lead in the polls. trump still thinks he can pull off a win there, and over the weekend he was practically taunting republicans in the state saying, quote, iowa, you haven't been good at picking winners, folks. if you pick me, you're going to pick a winner. george. >> okay, jon, thanks very much. we've also got this new analysis from fivethirtyeight, our partners from fivethirtyeight. they projected the race so correctly back in 2012 and have now got the first projections for the iowa caucus. george. primary contests are notoriously hard to forecast but fivethirtyeight is for the first time this cycle candidate has to win in iowa and new hampshire. they're doing it by combining all the latest polling numbers with data on how the various polls and endorsements have predicted or failed to predict results in the past. while senator ted cruz and donald trump are neck and neck in the poll, as of today fivethirtyeight gives cruz a 44%
the iowa caucus. trump comes in second with a 21% chance of winning, and here's a surprise, based on recent endorsements and momentum in the poll, fivethirtyeight gives marco rubio a 20% chance of winning in iowa. jeb bush and ben carson trail far behind to round out the top five. now, over in new hampshire, trump leads by a wide margin in every poll and fivethirtyeight puts him as the clear front-runner with a 34% chance of winning and fivethirtyeight gives rubio a 26% chance of winning. they are trailed by cruz, john kasich and jeb bush, and despite some momentum fivethirtyeight is giving chris christie only a 7% chance of winning in new hampshire. >> okay, jon karl, thanks very much. let's take this now to senator marco rubio, who joins us from miami this morning. you saw those projections right there, senator rubio. thank you for joining us. what do you make of them, and what do you need to do to overtake donald trump and ted cruz? >> well, we're going to keep doing what we're doing now. look, there's a lot of voters in
in iowa, but also in new hampshire that are going to make they're still shopping. you can see it and sense it in your conversations. we've gotten some people that are starting to make firm commitments but others are still looking. look, three weeks for an iowa caucusgo caucusgoer is a long time. they only have one vote and know the important role they play and we feel very, very confident about where we stand and where we'll be when it's over. >> you heard those iowa voters. some concerns about your experience. one voter calling you obama 2 and that attack has been picked up by chris christie, hitting on your experience. he's made a point about you in a pretty graphic way let's listen. >> this guy has an spoon-fed every victory he has ever had in his life. is that the kind of person we want to put on the stage against hillary clinton? i don't think so. she'll pat him on the head and then cut his heart out. >> cut your heart out. >> well, look, chris doesn't want to have a debate about his record. it's not personal but chris' record for a republican is not what we need.
he's personally given a donation to planned parenthood. he's a supporter of gun rights -- gun control. that's why he got into office to begin with was run for gun control. our republican nominee is someone who agrees with hillary many issues in this country. on those issues. >> what do you make about that -- what do you make about that experience coming from the the experience, worried you could be another obama? >> well, first of all, obama is he has seven years of presidential experience and still making enormous mistakes. clearly it wasn't experience but it was his ideology was flawed. it's true there are people running for president who lived longer than i but no one running has more experience, has better understanding of our
and that's the number one job of a president is to be the commander in chief. and none of these other people running have more experience on that issue or have shown better judgment, especially over the last five years than i have so i'm confident that as we continue to make that argument, the people who are troubled by that will move on and come to support us. >> you're getting hit pretty hard by ted cruz on the issue of immigration taking on your of eight compromise in the senate. this week a new issue cropped up in "the daily beast." it says, marco rubio in 2004, cheap college for undocumented immigrants. they're talking about the florida statehouse you co-sponsored legislation to provide in-state tuition for undocumented immigrants. what was your thinking then and do you stand behind that position now? >> well, first of all a lot of these attacks are exaggerated. i don't support amnesty. i think there has to be real consequences for violating our
i continue to support and have supported the largest border surge in american agents, 700 miles of fencing and system, entry/exit tracking overstays. on the bill you talked about it was a narrowly drafted bill and you had to have a certain gpa. you had to live in the u.s. a long time and from a florida high school. it was very narrowly tailored to high hief high-performing students who found themselves in a situation where they were brought here by their parents when they were 5, didn't speak another language except english because they were being charged like they were out of state. still had to pay for college but paid for what people paid -- high school graduates of >> you stand behind that? >> of a narrowly tailored bill like that, absolutely. in fact, the florida legislature came back years after i left and passed it with vast majority of republicans voting for it and a that's different, but we didn't legalize anybody. that's the issue here and the ted, he has changed his position place. i mean he used to be against birth right citizen -- he used
and now he says he's against it. people there were here illegally. now he is against it. 200% increases in green cards, doubling them. now he says he wants none, and 500% increase in guest workers and now he says he wants zero. so, this is not consistency, this is calculation as he's changed his position to election day. >> you've engaged in the national security debate with mr. cruz saying the usa freedom act that he supported is going to make it harder to protect the homeland. here's what you said this week. >> if isis had lobbyists in washington, they would have spent millions to support the anti-intelligence law that was just passed with the help of some republicans now running for president. >> that language about lobbyists for isis is pretty tough but the bill was also supported by iowa senator charles grassley, new hampshire senator kelly ayotte and almost two dozen members of congress who support you.
lobbyists for isis? >> no, but the names you mentioned supported it not because they thought it was nothing passed that would have expired and second they're not running for president. we're running for commander in chief here and, no, we should not have a commander in chief that wants to weaken our intelligence perhaps but my quarrel with ted on these issues of national security are not limited just to the intelligence but if it was just that, you can have an honest disagreement. spending -- language, lobbyists for isis? >> absolutely -- there is no doubt that groups like isis will benefit from us having a diminished intelligence capacity. we are now at a moment in this country where we don't just need to keep the authorities we already have, we need to add to these programs. look at what happened in philadelphia on friday. that was a terrorist attack. the white house refuses to call it a terrorist attack. the attacker said i did it for isis and i've been inspired by isis and we have a white house that refuses to acknowledge it as a terror attack.
and this is the kind of threat we face in this country. we need additional tools for intelligence, and my last point i want to make about this, i never believed edward snowden was a good public servant the way ted cruz once said he did a public service for america. edward snowden is a traitor. he took our intelligence information and gave it to the chinese and gave it to the russians. we cannot afford to have a commander in chief who thinks people like edward snowden are doing a good public service. >> president obama made a bid that was brand-new for background checks on gun sales and one of your recent ads said his plan would take away our guns. the president took on that argument this week. take a look. >> the conversation has to be based on facts and truth and what we're actually proposing. not some, you know, imaginary fiction in which obama's trying to take away your guns. >> fact checkers have called you out on that, as well. where has the president called
he has not done that. >> his proposal for everyone is infringe on the second amendment. this was a terrorist attack in san bernardino and he jumps and says we need gun control. >> but take away our guns? >> well, if he could, he would. obviously he knows he's constrained by the second amendment so what he tries to do is chip away at it every moment. george, if he could, he would. let me tell you what he's trying to do, he's trying to keep guns out of the hands of law-abiding citizens by continuing to put new restricts on gun rights. let me give you an example. he says -- barack obama wants this debate to be about facts and truth. good. let's have it about facts and truth. here's the fact and here's the truth. none of the attacks that he is talking about, none of these horrible, horrifying tragedies that have occurred that he cites as a rationale for new measures he's taking, not a single one would have been prevented by anything he's proposing and the reason why is because killers and criminals do not care what the gun laws are. they are not going to go to
checks. they will continue to get them guns, et cetera, so this is absurd. the only people that will follow the law are law-abiding people. this is nothing but an effort from the left to continue to chip away at the second amendment ryes. >> finally, senator, we had this news that sean penn, the actor, interviewed the mexican leader el chapo a few months back and had several follow-up interviews. the mexican authorities are now investigating. do you have any problem with what he did? >> yeah, i'm not -- look, i think sean penn is not someone i spend a lot of time thinking about. i didn't even know he was still around. i think he made movies a long time ago or something. he and el chapo, we used the interview he had in order to find him or the mexicans did. i hope they extradite el chapo to the united states. if one of these american actors who have benefitted from the greatness of this country and made money from our free enterprise want to go fawn over a criminal and a drug trafficker in their interview, they have a constitutional right to do it. >> senator rubio, thanks for joining us this morning.
the democrats up next. brand-new polls out this morning show clinton and sanders neck and neck in both iowa and new hampshire, that as the clinton campaign launching new attacks and bernie sanders joins us live in two minutes. >> announcer: this week with george stephanopoulos" is connected by blackberry priv. week with george stephanopoulos" with connected by blackberry priv. it's time to set this bird free. hot blooded, check it and see... his "this week with george stephanopoulos" with connected by blackberry priv. is "this week with george stephanopoulos" with connected by blackberry priv. s "this week with george stephanopoulos" with connected by blackberry priv. "this week with george stephanopoulos" with connected by blackberry priv. george stephanopoulos" with this week with george stephanopoulos" with connected by blackberry priv. whether it's 30-years old or 30-days old, carmax will appraise it in as little as and then your only concern will be how to spend the cash.
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think about it. >> i would bomb the [ bleep ] out of them. >> one of these republicans -- >> carpet bomb them into oblivion. >> could actually be president. >> sit down and shut up. >> they're backward, even dangerous, so ask yourself who is the one candidate who can stop them? hillary clinton. >> a brand-new ad from hillary clinton on the issue of electability as we have brand-new polls this morning showing tight, tight races here they are from nbc. the iowa caucuss show that hillary clinton holding just a three-point lead over bernie sanders. 48%-45% and in new hampshire, bernie sanders ahead, 50%-46% over hillary clinton.
iowa this morning. thank you for joining us this morning. senator, neck and neck race. >> it is, george. you know, george, consider how far we have come puerto vallarta are are are are over the last eight months, it really is incredible. we started at national polls at about 3%. have us ahead in new hampshire. i think we're gaining steam here in iowa. chance to win here and i think something profoundly wrong with the middle class continues to decline and almost all new wealth and income is going to that is resonating, people are tired of establishment politics, want change and that's what we're fighting for. >> it does appear that secretary clinton could hit a nerve though with this issue of electability. we conducted this focus group over the weekend. frank luntz conducted it and some of the voters had concerns about you and the electability issue. let's listen.
seems old. and i'm sorry. bernie is old, and i see how that office ages people. bernie won't make it. >> can he go the distance in my mind, no. >> one of the biggest flaws of bernie sanders was admit or state that he's a socialist. >> people think it's communism. >> so those issues of socialism, communism and age getting in the way of your electability. how do you reassure those voters? >> well, for a start i would urge those voters, voters all over this country, take a look at recent polls in which bernie sanders is matched with republican candidates, trump on down, hillary clinton is matched with republican candidates, and you know what, in many of those polls including the major recent one, quinnipiac poll, we beat trump nationally by 13 points, secretary clinton beat him by seven points. look at a recent new hampshire poll. just in new hampshire, we did much, much better against
hillary clinton. so, if people are concerned about electability and democrats should be very concerned because we certainly do not want to see some right wing extremists in the white house, i think bernie sanders is the candidate. we're doing much better with independents. we even draw a little bit better with republicans, so i believe quite honestly that with the enthusiasm that we are generating with the kind of voter turnout that i think we can bring out, look, republicans win when people are demoralized and the voter turnout is low. democrats and progressives win when working people and low-income people and young people get involved in the political process. george, i think any objective look at our campaigns would suggest we have the energy, we can drive a large voter turnout. >> so, the fact that you're a democratic socialist, the fact that you'll be 75 on election day not an issue? >> i think the fact that we are
issue after issue that are being supported by the american people, whether it's job creation, raising the minimum wage, climate change, making public colleges, universities -- public colleges and universities tuition-free, those are the issues that the american people are being galvanized around. they want us to take on the billionaire class and the greed of corporate america. that's what our campaign is have the momentum. >> that issue does seem to be working for you. secretary clinton making quite an issue of your background an gun control, particularly, the vote you had in the past, i think 2005 to shield, to give immunity to gun manufacturers. she actually called in to "hardball" just the other day. here's what she said. >> when it really mattered, senator sanders voted with the gun lobby, and i voted against the gun lobby. so, this is a significant difference, and it's important that, you know, maybe it's time for senator sanders to stand up and say, i got this one wrong, but he hasn't.
>> well, what you had was a complicated piece of legislation. there were aspects of it that were absolutely right. there were aspects of it that were wrong, but as the secretary knows, course, i'll be happy to take a look at that complicated piece of legislation and deal with it and get rid of those -- >> can you say right now you would vote for it? >> -- that are wrong. i will vote to revise that bill. there are parts of it that made sense to me. look, george, if you have a small gun shop owner in northern vermont who sells a gun legally to somebody, and then, you know, something happens to that guy, and he kills somebody, should i think not. on the other hand, if you have a manufacturer that is sending guns into an area and really knows that those guns are not being used by the people or bought by the people in that criminals, should we hold that manufacturer liable? absolutely.
absolutely willing, as i've said for many, many weeks, if not months, to take another look at that piece of legislation. but, by the way, you know, i would ask secretary clinton why she is not supporting legislation that i've introduced that would lift the cap on taxable income for social security so we can expand social security benefits. why is she not supporting major pieces of legislation in the house and the senate for paid family and medical leave, so that moms who have a baby can get three months off with pay? i wait to hear for secretary clinton to tell us why she is not supporting that legislation that the american people want to hear. >> it's clear the debate is going to be joined on many issues, but just to be clear on this issue, you can't say today that you would vote for that 2005 legislation. you'd vote for some revisions on the manufacturers, but you're not prepared to say that the vote you made back in 2005 was wrong? >> look, i've cast over 10,000
they have good stuff in it, they have bad stuff in it. i am absolutely willing to take another look at that legislation and get rid of the onerous provisions when gun manufacturers, for example, are selling guns into an area and know that those guns are going into the hands of criminals, absolutely, those gun manufacturers should be held accountable. >> finally, do you have any problem with what sean penn did with el chapo, that interview in "rolling stone"? >> i haven't thought about it much. i've been kind of running around i saw just -- i read a little bit about it. profound to say about it except this drug cartel leader has been caught. people like him have done incredible harm to people in our country and to his own country. >> senator sanders, thanks very much for your time this morning. when we come back, the white house chief of staff and senate majority leader mitch mcconnell and president obama's state of
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the birther issue is back. donald trump and john mccain questioning whether ted cruz is eligible to be president. the roundtable
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the white house chief of staff denis mcdonough. denis, thanks for joining us this morning. you and your colleagues have they'd that the president's speech on tuesday will be nontraditional. what does that mean? how will it be different. >> well, george, thanks for having me on the show. he gathered us together late last year and said, look, he doesn't want this to be the traditional policy speech that outlines a series of proposals. we'll have a lot of policy during the course of this year. rather, he wanted to step back and take a look at the future of this country, the challenges we're going through, making sure that we're focused on economy that gives everybody a fair shot that's changing economy, making sure we're using all the elements of our national power to keep our country safe and most importantly, i think, in this election year, making sure that we have everybody able to take part in our democracy, not the select few because he knows and this is what he'll talk about on tuesday night thematically, the united states succeeds when we draw on all 350 million americans that we have in this country, wherever they come from, whatever walk of life
are, so he'll be talking about the future. he'll be very optimist. he'll be very action oriented, but it won't be your traditional policy speech. >> is he focusing on the long-term because he knows he can't get much out of congress this year? >> we'll get some stuff out of congress. if you look back a year and ago and everybody was telling us we were done after the midterm, we obviously went out and got ourselves a climate deal, an historic one at that. we got out an iran deal. we got a very good budget deal that invests in middle class families, and we got a cuba deal, for example, during the course of the last year, so we have just as high hopes for this year, but what he wants to do on tuesday night is talk about the kind of country that he hopes will be president not just during the course of this year and this election year but rather over the course of the next 20 years, and he feels very optimistic about this future and that, by the way, is something that's a little different than some of the doom and gloom we hear from the republican candidates out there every day. >> they've also promised to undo
on guns. progress that you just cited is ephemeral? >> well, look, my job is to worry, george, so i worry every day about a lot of different things, but i think what the next president will find when they come in here that climate deal united the world for the first time on one of the major challenges we face, on the iran deal, iran now does not have a nuclear weapon and has no -- if we get all these steps now in the next several weeks ironed out that they have to carry out to get to what we call implementation day, all their paths to a nuclear bomb will be blocked, so we feel really good about these deals and we think the next president will come in and pick them up where we live them. >> the president pushing hard on the issue of guns and we just spoke to senator marco rubio. he said if the president could take away our guns, he would. your response? >> boy, you know, it's hard for me to keep these guys apart. i've been following all morning on these shows and doom and gloom that they're pitching to
counterfactual and not consistent with what we see every day. this kind of stuff appears to work for their politics but is not based on any reality, and this assertion that he made to you that somehow the president is going to do that is just not right. >> finally, this issue of el chapo perhaps being extradited to the united states and sean penn doing that extraordinary interview with him for "rolling stone," senator rubio called that grotesque. what is your response? mexican authorities are investigating. do you think the u.s. should investigate as well? >> what i think, it's good news that el chapo is back behind bars. i was appalled by his bragging in particular, george, about an epidemic that's sweeping this country on heroin addiction. i was appalled by his bragging to the interviewers in "rolling stone" that he moves more heroin than anybody in the world. we are seeing an epidemic of heroin and opiod abuse in this country. the president is going to get
if he is appalled about this will stop those in his party who would repeal the affordable care act, which has done more for mental health treatment and addiction treatment and substance abuse treatment than anything we've seen in decades. and that's the kind of real policy question i'm focused on today. we'll let somebody else sort out what sean penn did and didn't do. el chapo is where he should be. he should stay there and we got to get this heroin off american streets. >> mr. mcdonough, thanks for your time this morning. >> thanks so much, george. let's get a response now from the republican side. we are joined by the senate majority leader mitch mcconnell. morning. you heard mr. mcdonough say it's going to be a nontraditional state of the union. nontraditional response? >> well, look, the president is going soon to talk about the future and try to paint a rosy
where one does not exist. what we'd love to hear from the president is a real plan to defeat isil. instead, he withdrew troops from iran, from iraq, entered into a very bad nuclear deal with iran, the whole middle east is in terrible shape. let me just refer to what jimmy carter said at the beginning of the summer when he was asked about the president's foreign policy, he said he couldn't think of a single place in the world where we were better off now than we were when the president came to office. so i'd like to see the president step up here in his last year and lay out a plan for the defeat of isil. it's a good starting place. >> will the senate give him new authority to fight that war? he wants to schedule a vote on will the senate do that, as >> well, the problem with what the president submitted for an authorization of use of military force restricted what he could do. i can't imagine that i would be voting for an authorization for the use of military force that barack obama would sign because the one he submitted for us to take a look at restricted his activities. what he could do based upon
the next president. the next president may want to actually defeat isil and i think an aumf, an authorization for the use of military force, ties the president's hands behind his back is not something i would want to do to a new president who is going to have to clean up this mess created by all this passivity over the last eight year. >> what's the most important piece of legislation you can put on the president's desk this year that he will sign? >> well, look, i think it may be a little boring to the public but we haven't passed every single bill that funds the government. the appropriation bill since 1994. we've already agreed to what we're going to spend next year in our continuing effort to end dysfunction in congress we should make a huge step forward on it in 2015. i think we ought to on a bipartisan basis step up to the challenge of getting every single bill that funds the government passed individually,
the end, and get it on the president's desk. that would be noteworthy. it hasn't happened in two decades. >> back in 2008 there was bipartisan legislation passed unanimously in the senate declaring that senator john mccain was a natural born citizen even though he was born in a territory. i know you don't like to get in the middle of the 2016 campaign but there have been questions raised about ted cruz's eligibility to be president. will the senate pass legislation declaring he is also a natural born citizen? >> well, you're right. i've made a point of staying out of the presidential race. these guys are all running their races as hard as they can. >> but this bears on your responsibility. >> i don't think the senate ought to get in the middle of it. >> even though they did in 2008? >> i just don't think the senate ought to get in the middle of this. these guys will all slug it out in iowa and new hampshire and we'll have a nominee hopefully by time in the spring. >> sometime in the spring. this has been kind of an extraordinary race as i know you know. you see donald trump and ted cruz at the top of the primary field. senator cruz has called you a liar.
speaker ryan of gross incompetence. there seems -- they seem to be tapping into a real anger at the republican leadership out there in the country. what does it say to you that they're the front-runners for the republican race right now? >> it says that we ought to do our work. that the american people elected us to do it and let the presidential race play out. >> no worry donald trump would put your majority at risk? >> we'll do the job the american people elected us to do and presidential candidates will all slug it out and at some point this year hopefully we'll have a good nominee. >> you are disciplined, senator mcconnell. us this morning. roundtable is up next plus our powerhouse puzzler inspired by this week's state of the union address. which president gave the first televisioned state of the union. the answer when we come back. >> announcer: the powerhouse puzzler is brought to you by
he was born in canada and i say to ted and as a republican i say, because i think it's very important, you got to get it straightened out. >> i think there is a question. i'm not a constitutional it's worth looking into. i don't think it's illegitimate to look into it. >> well, i tweeted out a response to donald trump's raising questions about my natural born citizenship. it was a link to fonzie jumping the shark and i think i'm going to let my response stick with that tweet. >> who knew that "happy days" could come back in 2016. those questions about ted cruz's eligibility on the trail
let's talk about joined by our political analyst matthew dowd, television radio host tavis smiley, also the author of "the covenant with black america ten years later, hugh hewitt, host of "the hugh hewitt show" and donna brazile and matthew dowd let me begin with you. boy, the law does seem to be settled on what a natural born citizen is. doesn't mean it's not an issue in the presidential race. >> like many that come up even if we think it's settled and done, even if the candidate himself who raised the issue said it was settled, it doesn't seem to be settled. this is i think where -- we're in a campaign in a time where a series of these events and over again. >> hugh hewitt, you're tapped into the republican base, the republican primary voters. they're listeners of yours, as well. how does an issue like this get >> it doesn't. there is no debate. there isn't one single legal scholar in america who believes this is an open question. ted cruz is qualified but i am reminded when i was a lad there was a series of three fights between joe frazier and muhammad
and i think iowa, new hampshire and south carolina between ted cruz and donald trump are going to be that kind of slugfest, and on the other side there's who's got the george foreman lane? someone will emerge on the other side but those two will clobber each -- >> you brought back memories listening to those fights on my transistor radio on my pillow. meanwhile, hugh heweitt talks about this epic battle right now. trump at the top of these polls holding so strong. >> i mean, no one is a bigger birther than donald trump. i mean, he did it with president obama and now he's doing it to ted cruz and it put ted cruz in a very awkward position as somebody who once pedaled that kind of hysteria, as well. i mean, he's running as a son of an immigrant, a proud one, he's running as a fierce opponent of immigration reform. so here you have now ted cruz trying to prove that his mother eleanor has an american birth certificate from delaware. it's ironic.
republican primary. let them fight it out, but i do think he's qualified. that doesn't mean that i believe he would make a good president. >> are you going to mess with the republican primary? >> i'm happy to see donald trump go after cruz on this issue because to donna's point they did it so -- >> even though there's nothing to it? >> they did it so -- there's nothing to it. let me be clear, there's nothing to it but were so aggressive going after president obama on nothing to that either a few years ago, so i'm tickled by it. what troubles me though is that trump is still to my mind at least an unrepentant, irascible religious and racial arsonist, so when we talk about how trump is rising in the poll, you can't do that absent the kind of campaign he's running, the issues he's raising and for us to say donald trump is rising in the polls and not connect that to the base message that he's putting out there, i think this misses the point. >> that said let me ask you, matthew dowd. i was surprised to talk to a top republican strategist who said for the first time you have to accept the fact if all the
the nominee based on today's facts. >> well, and i said, you know, you and i talked bit. i said this over the summer. when you look at the data over the course of the primaries that have been held by republicans, he is most in line with a candidate who's won the nomination, not somebody that's fallen off in the course of this but i think it's really important to understand. i think what's going on on both sides of this and donald trump is represented on one side and bernie sanders is represented on the other side of this for totally different reasons with totally different supporters. there is an unbelievable frustration with the duopoly of the two parties in the country and the establishment of the two people don't like what's happened. the middle class are pissed off and they've been angry for 25 years and have seen no rise in their income and they think washington, d.c. only serves a small group of people, whatever that may be and bernie sanders is gaining the benefit of that against hillary clinton, the establishment candidate and donald trump for everything you say about him, the crazy stuff he says he does represent a group of voters in this country who are angry at what's going on in washington, d.c. >> i get your point, matthew,
that the establishment candidates are not running, george, this issue as strong as they have in past years and okay with seeing somebody from the outside do well, but i get tired of respectfully of us lumping trump and sanders in the same group. i take your point. two different kinds of candidates appealing for different reasons but one is being covered but he's not being condemned. i'm talking, of course, about donald trump. that is not the message that bernie sanders is putting out. >> of course, i'm not going to condemn him, tavis, because he's talking about issues no one else will talk about. donald trump will win new and his capacity ifshgs -- >> and hate. >> and this morning on every national show i'll bet you no one brings up 1924, a statute that former secretary of broke as was released on friday. i bet you it's not discussed discuss it. and when he does that -- >> can you explain what the statute is? >> the statute permits the misuse of classified communication and directed sullivan to alter secure it's clearly a felony and i
no one will talk about that and because trump will, he scores, not because of hatred but because of candor. >> oh, my god. he has demonized just about every group of americans. he's demonized immigrants. he's demonized and banned muslims. he's essentially insulted women. even in trying to defend his own record on sexism, he's went one step further with vulgarity. look, donald trump might be a pillar into a vast majority of republican-based voters but i way in which he goes about his message. i've got my trump tattoo. >> let's just make it clear, if i say that donald trump could be or would be or will be the gop nominee and he represents at the angry people of the country,
i support what he says. i think donald trump just like george wallace in 1972 and 1968 just like many other candidates he speaks for a certain number of issues, he does represent a certain level of this country that we all don't want to see happen in the course of the presidency. but i think donald trump, you have to acknowledge the tectonic shifts going on in this country that allows somebody like donald trump to rise and somebody like bernie sanders to take on the dominant character in this race, hillary clinton, and probably beat her in iowa and new hampshire. that represents a huge amount of frustration. >> has come so close in iowa, donna. i mean, it looks like a real race right now, real race in new hampshire. >> i've been to both states, george, and let me just tell you, bernie sanders is running a textbook campaign. he has, you know, 28 offices across the state. i've run iowa, so i know a little how to win there. he has 101 field staff. more importantly, he has advertisement and he has momentum. he is trying to do what president obama did in 2008 and enlarge the electorate. try to get young voters and disaffected voters and nontraditional democratic voters to join him in his cause and it is a cause. it's not -- >> the clinton campaign seems to be bracing for losses in iowa and new hampshire and they still hope they can pull out iowa but you hear a lot of talk how this is a delicate fight and will
>> i think you're right about that. it is a delegate fight. it is and it will take a while. with bernie sanders, it was a great conversation. i think he answered the question in a way not to take advice from me but he gets asked this question about his age, the answer is, if i'm 75, 85 or 95, i'm connecting to and i'm energizing young people. >> that's true. >> that's the answer and he ought to start saying that. >> we'll listen to him next week and see if he takes your advice. >> good advice. >> hugh hewitt, what happens over on the republican side? ted cruz still ahead in iowa. there's a big question in iowa, big open question whether donald trump's support measures actual caucus voters on caucus night. what happens if cruz wins iowa? what does that do to donald trump? >> ted cruz will win iowa. every single person i talked to on the ground says the organization is so massive and all you veterans know what it means but his lead is significant so go down to the south and south -- i had john kasich tell me this week on the show, he has a fire wall built in mississippi because of trent lot.
massachusetts on that thing. it's a wild free-for-all that could go on for a long time. best race of my lifetime. >> room for rubio in that? >> room for rubio. your conversation with marco rubio reminds everyone -- i'll go back to my boxing analogy. when we were done with all those heavyweight, you know who showed up. sugar ray leonard showed up. a generational change occurred which shifted the dynamics of the sport and rubio and cruz are doing to a lesser extent -- >> new hampshire primary night and iowa caucus night, who won and finished second. but who finishes third in iowa is really important and who finishes second in new hampshire is really important. >> so, marco rubio let's say according to the polls we just saw today, if marco rubio comes in third in iowa and -- >> second in new hampshire. basically john kasich, chris christie and jeb bush and the rest have to drop out of the race and understand there's no room left for that and that provides marco rubio to go one-on-two with ted cruz and donald trump in the course of this race. >> matt dowd knows
he's right about most things. i really disagree with you but i don't think the other guys will get out that quickly. something says as long as this is shifting the way it is those guys aren't getting out. >> there is psychology. >> there's no reason to get out until, you know, the end of march. >> save face. to save face. >> how many candidates have you worked for that -- >> i always hope and pray. >> of course, i have too. >> john kasich can win ohio on march 15th and take tell delegates to an open convention and -- wind. >> let me ask you all about this that three-way race that matt described and in john kasich stays in and perhaps wins iowa you are talking about a very long fight. does that mean that no single candidate has the delegates they need going in? >> it means the best convention in cleveland, the best city and the best state with the best football team and so we would love to have an open convention go for two weeks rather than one week. >> i thought it was 1,324 but --
>> okay, all right. but here's the point, george. it'll take a long time for the republicans to sort it out. it's a good thing. the establishment lane should be an accident scene because you have so many candidates vying for that third place. and when you're vying for third place, it's a long way home to be number one. >> the problem that i think the republicans have is there's likely to be a contested convention where nobody goes in with a majority. the problem is there's no more brokers in the country. there's no more -- the establishment does not run the republican party anymore. they do not run the convention so at that point in time, who puts the -- who puts the majority together to make it work? that's the problem i think the republicans have. >> the republicans have to figure out who and what they want to be when they grow up. >> and what they stand for. >> and what they stand for. >> i got to say there's also tidbit in "the new york times" i guess you knew this had to be coming. michael bloomberg, billionaire former mayor of new york, here thinking of the possibility that donald trump could be the republican nominee. hillary clinton the democratic nominee, has done some polling and i'm told, hugh hewitt, that polling shows a legitimate three-way race.
happen? >> please god. please god. yes but mayor bloomberg will -- >> but put it in a supports metaphor. [ laughter ] >> you got me. you got me. >> i think that the opportunity -- if ted cruz or donald trump are the republican nominee and hillary clinton is the democratic nominee you'll have the most unelectable candidates competing against each other. it creates a lane for a third party. i don't know that a billionaire from new york is the right to win delegates votes from -- >> our puzzling. >> who gave the first televised state of the union? >> lyndon johnson. >> the first televised though was actually harry truman. thank you all very much.
economists look forward to what >> announcer: catch this week on line all week at abcnews.com/thisweek, on facebook and twitter. abcnews.com/thisweek, on facebook and twitter. financial markets open the year deep in the red after a sell-off in china on monday sparked the same all over the world. the dow ending the week down more than a thousand points for the worst open in years despite a blockbuster jobs
report on friday that capped the best two years of job gains since the boom days of the 1990s. what's behind it and what's it mean for your money? here to discuss it, two of the nation's top economists, glenn hubbard, dean of columbia university business school
advisers under george w. bush and paul klugman from the city university of new york and "the new york times."
paul, let me begin with you. you took on this question of whether china will cause a global crisis in your column on friday. we heard people like george soros say it was as bad as 2008. >> china is messed up. i'm definitely buying into the hard landing for china story now. it looks like a bad mess and it looks like japan when it had its big bust but only worse without the social cohesion. china looks bad. the question is whether you can make that a story where the rest of the world gets dragged down and numbers make that a hard story to tell. even now, even with all the globalization, the united states only sells about $1 in $7 of what we make to other countries and most of that is to canada, europe, not to china. so, it's a little bit hard to tell that story. but, you know, like i said in the column, i don't have the courage of my complacency. even though the numbers don't work i'm worried. >> so the markets overreact. >> no, i am worried about china.
exports are only two-thirds of our gdp. but that's a known known. the known un known known is the chinese debt problem is the unknown unknown. we all know that china has a lot of negative net present value investment. it's an economic long-term basket case. we always thousand we could manage through it. i'm not sure the short run and the long run are too different. themself. >> the chinese debt is owed to themself. there's not a whole lot of money at risk directly, but the trouble is, the world is complicated. we have seen enough crises come out of, you know, left field that we're worried. i think still by and large not a global recession. >> the jobs issue, we saw that strong jobs report, 292,000 jobs in december. we've had the recovery seems to be on track long and slow recovery but remarkable job creation record for the last several years. how much longer can it go on? >> well, i think the jobs report was basically a very solid report, and we're seeing the duration of long-term
but i'm worried about a couple of things, first of all, we're not seeing as many people come back into the labor force who left as we would like. and i'm worried about long-range productivity growth so that's what has markets rattled. we'll see pretty good job numbers and the rate will probably fall to 4 1/2% or lower in 2016 but that doesn't mean the labor market is healed. >> i think the interesting thing, since the bottom in 2010, we've added 14 million private sector jobs, and we've done that despite dodd frank, which was supposed to be a job killer tax hike on the top 1% which was supposed to be a job killer, be a job killer. actually have seemed to kill jobs. the u.s. economy looks fundamentally pretty good. i mean, household debt is down relative to income. >> people just don't feel it. is that because of the lack of wage growth? >> so inequality is rising. productivity growth has been slow so we're not seeing incomes
i don't see anything obviously wrong with this expansion. inflation is not picking up. the flip side of that number there's no inflation problem. so i think we're looking only at some outside event like china possibly bringing into it. >> i think an inside event too. the huge political uncertainty on the show you talked about in the united states i think is very disruptive and has people in markets rattled. >> maybe trump can say to the whole country, you're fired. >> so if you're the federal reserve and you're janet yellen looking at all this now, are you going to pay more attention to the strong jobs number or the anxiety over china. >> oh, if i were janet yellen, i would be holding my fire. i wouldn't have done the rate hike they already did because if something does go wrong, we don't have any room for maneuver. the fed should wait until it sees the whites of inflation's eyes because if they're wrong and hike too soon, there may be no coming back. >> so that means holding off for how long? >> until you see inflation pick up which we haven't seen at all. >> i think they did the right thing by hiking. i don't think they will hike again at this meeting probably march or later but i think there
misallocating credit and we will see in a year's time inflation pick up so i think the fed is on the right path. >> i've been saying that about the inflation pickup for years and years so we have no idea really. we don't know the full employment is anywhere close. >> okay, paul krugman, glenn hubbard, thank you very much. that is all for us today. thanks for sharing part of your sunday today. tune in tuesday for president obama's final state of the union and i'll anchor our coverage starting at 9:00 eastern and see