A logistic function was used to generate probabilities of reenlistment among sailors who were assigned to 17 San Diego based fast frigates from FY77 through FY83. These probabilities were compared to reenlistment behavior and the means of their residuals plotted on time lines. The graphs were then mapped against commanding officer tenures to determine if there was any correlation between the arrival of a new commanding officer and subsequent retention aboard that vessel. The plots indicated that some commanding officers may precipitate an actual 40 percent increase or decrease in retention rates adjusted for various factors. To obtain a 40 percent increase in reenlistment rates with monetary incentives, a pay raise of 20 percent would be required. The use of reenlistment rates as an indicator of a commands retention ability was determined to be valid 85 percent of the time.
Hoffman, Paul J. Swenson, Thomas G.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Naval Postgraduate School
M.S. in Management
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