cisco also down after metrics in earnings disappointed and valero among the energy prices lower on that oil dropping. guy: let's get back to jordan rochester joining us from number -- joining us from nemura. if bernie wins tonight, by were sell the dollar? jordan: it depends. the japanese yen would strengthen if you saw strong showing from bernie sanders. it is a slim win, then the market will keep in mind that joe biden could do well when it comes to super tuesday. however, the models are saying bernie should get around 30% of the vote tonight. if he gets 40% or higher than that, that will then lead to a big change in the models, big surprise in the polling, and we will see the bernie sanders risk premium go up. you will see the s&p supper. it is unclear what this means for emerging markets are high beta economies because you will see health care under pressure. when you see financial stock selloff you see safe havens go up. the dollar against the yen, against the suisse will weaken. against other places like emerging markets it is less clear. vonnie: where is the best action in forwar

this would affect shares of renewable energy, even valero according to some analysts. would you retroactively extend the one dollar per gallon credit for 2018 and 2019 but also looking to extend that into 2020 and then it drops by $.20 a gallon for every year between 2021 and 2023. analysts at piper jaffray and roth are saying that is more ambitious than they thought. very good news for some of those companies. notably, it does not include solar. it does look like right now it could extend some of the wind credit. a lot of debate still going on. vonnie: i want to break a headline. rick gatesign aide sentenced to 45 days in jail. we have a decision in the rick gates case. he was the star u.s. witness against paul manafort and roger stone. prosecutors had asked for him to only be given probation but he got 45 days in jail. we do have an answer on the rick gates sentencing. 45 days in jail. back to taylor riggs in san francisco. wind energy is included in these tax credits, solar energy not so much. why is that? taylor: i want to take a look at some of the companies we kn

look at the biggest movers in that sector, exxonmobil and marathon down the better part of 3%, and valero and conocophillips down by about 1.5%. vonnie: thank you for that. remember the function gtv on the bloomberg allows you to browse all of the charts featured on bloomberg tv. analysiswith key and savior have her it's for future reference -- and save your favorites for future reference. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ vonnie: live from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." let's check in on the bloomberg first word news. here's courtney donohoe. courtney: there may be a pitch in negotiations for an interim trade deal between the u.s. and china. donald trump says the u.s. hasn't agreed to a rollback on tariffs with china. in fact, he said he hadn't agreed to anything. president trump won't impose tariffs on european cars next week as threatened, according to european commission president jump on juncker. -- president jean-claude juncker. eu has threatened to impose its own tariffs on american goods if president

they are up four point 7% for the month and a lot of that is the actual gasoline retailers like valero capturing this gap and taking more profit for themselves and that will weigh on consumers wallets as they start the summer driving season. this is an important chart to watch. vonnie: thank you for that illustration of what is happening at the pumps. mark, what have you got? ago the big fear was if there was an italian election it will be a de facto referendum on eurozone membership. that did not play out. we have a populist led government but it let me to believe that that question is still present and some analysts posit the question, at what point will the true colors of the populists come to the fore, their true anti-euro colors. that is something to look ahead to. in the meantime, it is worth posing the question what is the probability of a breakup of the eurozone in the next 12 months? .e have a chart for that this is what i love about life. you have a chart for everything. this is the euro breakup index which essentially surveys individual and institutional clients and right no

if the dollar loses steam and emerging-market currencies rebound in recent lows, valero -- the lira could fall soon if not, it will remain among the weakest market currencies. about elliott you management confirming its significant stake in this deal. this was a story we broke a number of days ago when we spoke to people familiar with the matter. that's a look at the european markets. vonnie: another fascinating activism story in europe. in the u.s., the 10 year yield is back to 2.90 6% as we see risk off primarily after the white house letter to the north korean leader. we already saw the tenure breach the 3% mark in the session overnight on fears about trade talks and tariffs again. was only a few hours ago and there was a concern there could be a 25% tariff in addition to other tariffs on cars coming out of china. ae dollar index is down little bit again on the north korean news. we still have the massive spread, it dollars or so between nymex crude and brent crude reflecting the continued uncertainty before the opec decision on what they will do. you mentioned some of these assets inc

valero up about 1%. seems they are back in business and trading higher. a look at metals, gold is higher, up 1.5%. it makes sense, considering the dollar is lower and the haven bid. industrial metals all down. one of it -- our commodities strategist says this is long overdue private taking. -- profit taking. julie: industrial metals now a pullback. speaking of hurricanes and the energy complex, the latest on hurricane irma as a goes towards florida with the national hurricane center issuing an a.m., a category four hurricane with winds up to 150 miles per hour and hurricane conditions over parts of cuba and the central bahamas. you can see the latest on the bloomberg. has left at least 11 people dead and thousands homeless across the caribbean. threatening to become the most expensive storm in u.s. history. miami-dade county biggest evacuation effort and the national hurricane center extending the hurricane watches north, all the way to the daytona beach area and the storm surge warnings as well. let's bring in our miami-based breaking news reporter, join

valero and citgo said to be on the verge of restarting refineries in corpus christi. the secondmakes landfall as expected, the nation's largest oil refinery could be hit. the loss of refineries in that region would leave only facilities in louisiana supplying fuel to new york and other demand centers. president trump is promising that taxes will get emergency disaster aid quickly. he said there will be "very rapid reaction from congress." still there are signs that there may be a political fight over the money. a top texas conservative, financial services committee chairman, says he wants to cut spending to pay for the response to harvey. global news powered by more than 27 or journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i am courtney donohoe. this is bloomberg. big: let's get to another story moving markets -- north korea firing a missile over japan. president donald trump says all options are on the table. stephen engle files this report from tokyo. stephen: shinzo abe twice converging meetings of his security council following what he called the unprecedent

the polis index was in -- -- the euro is benefiting and because of the euro, other currencies like valero are benefiting. we will be talking about this in a little bit. mark? mark: right. a big week for central bankers as they head to jackson hole tomorrow for the annual economic symposium, hosted by the kansas city fed. mario draghi will be there before he flies across the atlantic. he spoke in germany, repeating the old playbook is out the window when it comes to monetary policy. >> policy actions undertaken in the last 10 years, monetary policy and regulations, supervision have made the world more resilient. but we should continue preparing for new challenges. us to break down the cap forward for mario draghi and the ecb, and a look ahead to jackson hole is a pemco portfolio manager. -- pimco portfolio manager. thank you for joining us. let's talk about mario draghi. he did not talk about the euro or the impending ecb meeting which takes place at the beginning of next month. it leads us nicely to his speech on friday in jackson hole, wyoming. nuggets mightwhat he giveaway on friday abo

we also sai have some of the top for farmers -- performers like valero saying that the market looks positive. a lot of strength here. on the month, it's a different story. we had that declines. oil is on pace first was to climb, down 11% for the month of june. it is the worst june since june of 1988. we are at the beginning of the driving season. that should help oil. the last time we had this big decline, it was at the end of an eight year war between iran and iraq. it magnifies the fact that investors are so focused on the global supply glut. relative to the near term, we may be catching a breather here. hop into the bloomberg and take a look at g #btv 299. this is a one-year chart of oil that comes from a bloomberg commodity strategist. it shows this moving trading range. right now, we do appear to be bouncing off the top of it. i spoke with mark newton and he said that the near-term looks bullish. he thinks we could see a little bit of a pullback, something that both aspects would be supported by this moving range of oil. mark: despite the recent rebound, there are still challenged with