scott walker is the midwestern governor bracket. and jeb bush is the establishment bracket. he really has to crack that first bracket, doesn't he? jerry: he has to make the establishment comfortable enough with him as the alternative to jeb bush. if the front runner stumbles there is a rare amount of comfort among marco rubio among the establishment. al: karen, marco rubio is a first-term senator. his only previous experience was in the state legislature. he is in his 40's. haven't we seen this movie before? the republicans don't like that film. karen: on top of that, the real issue is his role in the senate passing a comprehensive immigration bill. that, for a lot of republicans is a dealbreaker. al: it seems to me, jerry, not only did he create problems, but he has done not a 180, but a 160, if you will. that may put him in the worst of both worlds. jerry: that is a big problem. you can't get around that problem and they primary conversation. just like you can't get around common core if you are jeb bush. i think you'll have to explain it in a way that is credible to the b

john: if you look at jeb bush, scott walker, marco rubio, those are establishment -- welker is playing both sides. bush and rubio are going to be establishment candidate and put a lot of ships in new hampshire. if you are one of these other guys running into any establishment bracket, iowa becomes important. you have to put a win on the board somewhere. iowa is the better opening for ted cruz, my cut could become up rick santorum. they have some built-in advantages. there's going to be a big scrub trying to get out through that to chock a win up in the hawkeye state. charlie: we've had two announcements. ted cruz and rand paul. what is most impressive so far? john: there are two different kind of announcements. cruz's announcement was powerful rhetorically. he gave a great speech. the crowd was there by force. they were students who did not come to that event. the enthusiasm level was lower. he is great on stage. with paul it is harder to george -- to judge. it was a more enthusiastic room. he is not a great orator. when it came to his oratorical athleticism, his ability to command the