? >> no. no take on steel. >> all righty then. copper is on the move after moody's downgraded china. we'll hit the future pits next. ♪ predictable. the comfort in knowing where things are headed. because as we live longer... and markets continue to rise and fall... predictable is one thing you need in retirement to help protect what you've earned and ensure it lasts. introducing brighthouse financial. a new company established by metlife to specialize in annuities & life insurance. talk to your advisor about a brighter financial future. >>> welcome back to "the halftime report." i'm jackie deangelis. we are watching copper today falling after moody's downgraded china's credit rating for the first time in nearly 30 years. china the world's largest consumer of copper. did you short copper on the down grade? >> i did not. that was a mixed down grade. think of how moody's hedged themselves. that was actually an upgrade. the modern day silk road from 2,000 years ago in china, that silk road we're calling one belt one road will touch 50% of global gdp, and that infrastructure should buo

the longest winning streak is extended. over in china, a downgrade. moody's lowers its rating on the country itself for the first time since 1989. tiananmen square back then. >>> well, shares of lowe's are down sharply. you can see over 3% there after it missed with the quarterly revenue and same-store sales and tiffany a bit lower. actually, much lower than lowe's is on the stock basis. first quarter profit was ahead of estimates but revenue was a bit shy of consensus. weaker than expected sales a surprising decline in comp sales. not just the flagship that was affected by the trump barricades here in midtown manhattan. >> look, i was surprised by the stock has run a lot. so therefore, people kind of felt that something good was happening. europe minus 3, minus 4. we're hearing from a lot of companies that because of the dollar being weaker, they have gotten more tourism, gotten more dollars in. that did not affect them. so that was disappointing. lowe's, i want to point out and i just want to say something positive about lowe's first, they did reaffirm guidance but it was not what

is the data in there. amherst and moody's at 3.8. action at 3.2. and bank of tokyo at 2.9. look at the futures market, the uncertainty shows up. not in june expectations which is around 60% for that hike. but in expect anxiouses for the -- expectations in september. you have a bun of people who think it happens, a bunch who thinks it doesn't. >> did we expect the discussion to begin about shrinking the balance sheet and what do we need to know about that? >> when and how much and how it proceeds. we have some general statements from the federal reserve that they're having this conversation now. we expect to know more say by the end of the year. maybe as soon as the fall. does it taper the reinvestments? you have a statement by the way from the treasury. which said, hey, we're getting ready for this. that means we have to sell more to the public because the fed won't be buying. it's interesting to see how the bond market reacted which is not at all. it suggests to me that the bond market is ready for the reduction of the balance sheet and if the fed plays its cards right it may not

not as good as expected. cnbc did a tracking update with moody's, it declined to 0.1% from the previous reading. the economic surprises have been coming in negative. >> absolutely. that's been one of the surprises that the market has done so well, it's surprising to see the various measures they all measure the same thing and the economic data didn't do so well in q2. but we're very optimistic. that's what the fed has been saying this week that, you know what, just look through this. the minutes said look through this. just see if things will continue to improve going forward. >> is that why the market has remained resilient in the face of some weaker economic data? >> i think the market is disconnected from fundamentals. the last time i was with you guys i talked about the ecb and monitoring how aggressive both the boj and the ecb were going to be coming into this year. in fact, between the two of them, there's $1.2 trillion of balance sheet expansion. let's not forget they're not just acting on benchmark rates. the boj is buying equities and the ecb buys investment grade. in