i think moody's is right, but kind of late, right? the chinese stock market has not been doing well in two years. chinese imports of u.s. go has fallen for 2 1/2 years. we've seen the slowdowns in the stock market and in terms of their imports of u.s. goods. so i think it is a real slowdown, neil. neil: let's say that, you don't buy these levels or seem a little grand. now moody's is saying, china is acknowledging we can't continue to grow at this clip, real or not. if they start slowing the fear seems to be, if moody's is right, the fear is real, that this economic catalyst for much of the world be is going to affect much of the world, what do you you think? >> i think that's true. not only in terms of imports and exports, neil, but we have businesses over there. they have businesses over here. china's main problem, as i see it, neil, they printed a lot of money for a long time, kind of inflated their economy. then all of a sudden the real estate bubble happened over there and they pulled back sharply. neil: right. >> i think that is

moody's a downgrading china. they say rising debt and a slowing economy could make the country weaker. your thoughts on that, herb? it's important. >> i think it's an exceedingly important story and you do have raising debt in china. and unthing you have to address is the corruption, and that's dampening. stuart: liz, doesn't this give us leverage with china on the trade issue? if their economy is slowing and downgrading the debt, that looks good for us. >> one of the reason the debt is going up because they have the big leadership powwow in the fall and they want the economy to grow and fueling it via lots of borrowing. interesting stat. since 2008, debt has grown in china, a tremendous pile-on of debt and the ratings agencies don't do this casually. stuart: it's one of the big stories hovering in the background. >> a little bit. ashley: china's response, your methodology on this is all wrong and you forget we can do whatever we want. >> and that's true in the methodology that china was suggested to have been gr

trade to moody's downgraded its credit rating by one notch today. the london ftse is up one 10th of 1% and the german dax down 1%. transcript 43-point gain in a 300 or to point gain after four days of the doubt. the nasdaq up five. taking a look at oil and gold, expected to meet in vienna. >> oil up six days in a row. the federal reserve will release minute that i come from the central bank at wells fargo that. good morning to you. you expect the fed to hike rates in june? >> we do it take to race at a quarter of a point in june. we will haveome language that the rate hikes suggest they will keep raising rates and probably moved again in september. train to see you think three total for this year? >> that's aware thinking the the fed would raise rates three times this year. it's possible it would go four times, but now it looks like after they raise rates in september they will switch their intention to beginning to normalize their balance sheet, which they took from $800 billion to 4.5 trillion in the aftermath of the financial crisis. lauren: the

moody's says ford's move to replace mark fields is a credit negative. moody's calling the move abrupt and concern that this could reflect serious set of challenges at ford. the stock is down 15% over the last year. well, a prison riot in california to report, eight guards to the hospital, cheryl casone with the details, cheryl. cheryl: a fight between two inmates yesterday at the pelican state prison, took live immuneition to stop, all the injured guards were treated and released from local hospitals, investigators don't know whether it was a planned attack on correctional officers or was this somehow gang related. well, tragedy in new york after a sink hole swallows a man alive. died yesterday after the hole collapse bearing him in 15 feet of dirt. he was pulled from the sink hole six hours later. well, ariana grande one last time rise to go number one spot after fans launched online campaign to get the singer's 2014 hit to the top of the chart in memory of the manchester bombing victims. ♪ ♪ ♪ cheryl: some reports say that ariana grande is prepa

bill quick on china, the credit rating cut, top stories by moody's. >> is funny because i saw somebody put up a chart of the upshur wanted it looks like it is highly volatile. i was just looking at a three-hour a period still a pretty tight range. i think the best thing i can do for the viewers and anybody watching this just remind you. it's not whether you are a buyer without an aversion to the yield curve. it is whether you're a more aggressive buyer. but the market corrected the next 15 minutes? yes it up quite a bit. definitely for the intermediate to long-term. but i urge people to do this if you cap a week off last wednesday we got this 2% drop, here it is, be careful. earnings are positive. the fed is historically accommodated. banks and lending and a story that nobody focuses on enough if you've got a millennial demographic that turning 27. as big as the baby boom here, they are 27 years old. you are coming to a period where the household formation is going to pick up because i call it my cousin benny moment that my biological clock is ticking. around 27 to 37. they are not goi

moody's managing director john lonski joins us now. let's suppose we get no tax reform, no tax cut. what do we grow at, this economy. >> we'll probably grow between 2 and 2.25%. which is fine. stuart: that's it? that is not what we wanted? >> the important thing profits are probably still going to grow. stuart: okay. >> and that is of critical importance to the equity market. stuart: did you see any big negative for the economy other than we might not get a tax cut? >> only big negative is if something goes wrong with consumer spending. we just got reports of these highest credit scores on record. we have relatively low credit card delinquency rate. jobs are growing, incomes are growing. why should consumer spending stall. stuart: do you think we could have a summerallly? >> yes i do. could probably grind higher maybe a percentage point per month. you're not at a point looking at contraction for profits that otherwise would perhaps drive equity markets sharply lower. stuart: you can understand our viewers, coming to watch the program. it is tuesday morning. we had a long holiday wee