charles: another bullish call and this is ubs, the risk of recession, they are bearish, risk of recession is rising, jack, wall street chiming in like that, i don't know. i doubt that they have done actually in any trade to go reflect the new cautionary stance. >> i can tell you that recession is coming, the question is is it going to happen soon and how much am i going to make between now and then. what's going to cause investors turning away from stock is having something better to buy with money. 2.9% 10-year treasury yield is not going to do. if that were average levels right now we would be over 5%. you have a long way to go to get back to average and between now and then rising interest rates are actually a good sign for the economy, means we are getting out of the intensive care unit and getting back to normal. charles: one thing i really love, the consumer has come to life big time and that, in fact, seems like it's having con tablous effect on a lot particularly small businesses and jpmorgan out saying this morning that american small businesses are super bullish and seem to be f

. >>> ubs, the stock is way down. they spent $125 million trying to get all the packages delivered on time for the holidays. -- ups. that is extra 125 million, they will invest several billion more on new planes. the stock is down 6 1/2%. >>> chipotle used to follow them very, very closely. well, they have a sell recommendation from ubs. that bank says, sell that thing. apparently people are. it is down 12 bucks at 312. do we have breaking news, liz? liz: tax cut bonuses to hourly workers, 260,000 at lowe's. up to 1000 in bonuses to 260,000 hourly workers. they're going to add new benefits. paid maternity leave. paid parental leave. adoption assistance. number of companies doing this, giving back tax cuts is 287. stuart: lowe's, 260,000 employees. liz: hourly workers. stuart: they get a bonus up to 1000. liz: that's correct. stuart: added benefits. liz: that's correct. new benefits. stuart: the stock is up but not much. >>> the classified memo could be made public today. the news expect to come from the white house. t

for more on the markets i want to bring into the conversation, ubs portfolio wealth manager. jim, what do you think here? it has been a wild run. >> it has been a wild run. we should expect a wild run. january was up 7%. that is a gigantic move in one month. the angle of ascent is straight up. you expect the market to pullback, given we haven't had five% pullback in 19 months. we had second longest run ever for a 3% pull back. the market was due for a pullback. a lot of money flying into the market in january. this is probably panicking buying and now we're probably seeing some panicky selling. brac to the economy, we're in pretty good shape. ism number was 10-year new high. new order at new high. manufacturing orders, three-year highs, not only in the u.s. but around the world. japan had good purchasing manage ires index numbers, so is china. we're seeing strong global economy. very strong u.s. economy. we expect gdp to be somewhere between 2.7 to 3% this year. trish: jamie, you're light on that. jamie dimon is saying 4%. fed is saying 5.4% in first three months of the year

agree, you would agree, and wayne would agree there is no reason somebody who is mentally unstable, ub stai unsts this guy was, should ever have access to a gun. this say mul multi-prong approa, we have it talk about mental illness, and school savety and the fbi. >> are right, the left likes to talk about gun violence, this is say term that not act rate, they want to talk about the laws around guns. they fail to talk about people who are increasely reaching to violence, i think with this pro cliffty to violence -- pro cliffty to violence, this there is not a law we can pass, this is say problem of soul. we have people that just do evil and bad and destructive things, i don't think that government can pass laws to change that. all of us as americans, need to continue to make sure that we're good neighbors. we're aware in our community, when people are doing things, that raise alarms, we have to take the step, we have to call the authorities, and authorities they need to have the ability. trish: to respond. >> right. >> and take concrete steps. trish: this is a failure on so many levels,