charles: another bullish call and this is ubs, the risk of recession, they are bearish, risk of recession is rising, jack, wall street chiming in like that, i don't know. i doubt that they have done actually in any trade to go reflect the new cautionary stance. >> i can tell you that recession is coming, the question is is it going to happen soon and how much am i going to make between now and then. what's going to cause investors turning away from stock is having something better to buy with money. 2.9% 10-year treasury yield is not going to do. if that were average levels right now we would be over 5%. you have a long way to go to get back to average and between now and then rising interest rates are actually a good sign for the economy, means we are getting out of the intensive care unit and getting back to normal. charles: one thing i really love, the consumer has come to life big time and that, in fact, seems like it's having con tablous effect on a lot particularly small businesses and jpmorgan out saying this morning that american small businesses are super bullish and seem to be f