let's talk mario draghi. there's no need to deviate from the wording of forward guidance, the balance of growth risks seem to be shifting upwards. right back at you, jens weidmann. yesterday he's saying the time is approaching. who is in charge? mark: mario -- rick: mario draghi is in charge. what he's trying to move towards is, the dynamic around normalizing, let monetary policy evolved, but do it very slowly. you've got a french election, a german election. there is no rush to move. license is things will change. i think they are going to be very deliberate. manus: do you think the bond market in europe just got a little ahead of themselves in saying, the ecb has cut all the hallmarks of the ability to move by christmas? rick: people don't realize we're in the most technically driven market i've ever seen. income,hics, many for if you don't change and that policy doesn't evolve, people have to put extraordinary amounts of money to work. the technicals tend to win out. i think you are going to see -- the sam

mario draghi: well, not really. we are -- it would be -- i think the main conclusion is that it reactbe premature to to or make a policy decision based pursued by policy the u.s. administration at this point in time. that one thing, perhaps, that one has to be very tentative in this. one thing that may have come out of the meetings is that perhaps, the risk of protection, trade protection, it may have somewhat receded. that marketsint is are in the course of a reassessment of the u.s. fiscal policy. frankly, i wouldn't feel like going beyond that. reporter: thank you. thejust mentioned disparagement index on growth, which has improved. he also said there was some discussion in the council today value economic growth in the euro area. particular, in italy, gdp growth is lagging behind. maybe even so that a tightening of monetary policy could come too soon. so my question is, when deciding on a degree of monetary policy accommodations in the coming months, do you only look at averages? of growth? or out at individual

draghi probably wants to tread carefully. also should be mindful of the fact that he -- his predecessor -- there is a mixup when the tightened early in the market when overexcited and he had to reverse it. draghi really wanted to do that. he will be extremely cautious. he may want groundwork for next year, but will be carefully chosen. >> great to hear take, thank you very much. on smart analysis of what's happening in the market, there's a number of tialavea goes today, including big corporate reports. to -- four z to know today, tia like, mliv. with is now head of micro strategies. let's talk about the ecb. will get a draghi or sell the banks based on that is not -- as well. >> one thing i would say that wese expectations, draghi -- seem to have forgotten that there is a hawkish market reaction to last policy statement. to speakers were very quick -- to quite extensively trying wrote back. have had sincee then, ok, yes, we may have removed some of the tail risks and france, but actually, inflation data is disappointed on th

draghi talking about lou thehowb policy remainsen changed. remains unchanged. >> we think inflation is coming off in europe. we're not seeing a lot of core inflation. in our view, ecb will extend qe next year, continue with the 60 billion euro per month and this is in line with that view. this is not a lot of underlying inflationary pressures in europe in our view. >> a more dovish ecb, but more hawkish fed, if you will, for the markets. you say the quantitative tightening is moving closer. that would lend more strength to the dollar, wouldn't it? >> on the short-term, that's the thing we're seeing, relative rates will tend to support the dollar on the short-term. of course the story about balance sheet, then you have more complicated things like the basis effect and so forth. basis market. i think the overall theme is slightly stronger dollar in the short-term given the move in relative rates and some expect taeg expectations about political uncertainty in europe. >> the fed only sees fiscal stimulus from the new administration and donald tr

manus: it will hear from mario draghi. i am fascinated to see how much he gives.k draghi need to be to reassert the ecb? think he very well understands that if the ecb starts to hike interest rates that would anchor the curve, you could get a short backup and yield spreads could widen. this is why you'll hear a dovish speech and he will reemphasize the sequencing which is gradually taper the bond purchases then reassess and at 2018 orge later, late 2019 start hiking interest rates. the fed asdo not see having gifted an easier path? >> i do not think so. it depends on how the currency acts, if the dollar were to strengthen, the euro were to weaken it would be easier for the ecb to exit. yesterday the exact opposite happened. manus: thank you for joining us. that is the latest from pimco. we deal with everything live, unscripted. we do it all for you and with a little bit of love. anna: -- love. from mario draghi in about 30 minutes. we will bring you his speech live from brentford at 8:00 a.m. u.k. time, that :00 a.m. europ

this is a fine london draghi needs to walk. is reading back expectation that the stimulus will be able to reduce. there's still no new the gold. >> this is a great chart. this is inflation expectations five years ahead. we are moving away from movements at all, just dominating inflation. element foot -- have legislation is going up. as it did come as much as the anniversary. -- same profile for headline inflation. he restricts because it felt it was emergency low rates. that's not what the european central bank under mario draghi is ticking of doing. they are going to keep pushing , down thelus accelerator to keep the european motor going until they feel they have sustainable -- sustainable inflation. 7.9 but it's significantly higher than it was last year, which shows the some substantial improvement. it's a global phenomenon. at least inflation figures linked up with the united states we it moves a bit -- not >> have got a busy political calendar, we tend to put things on hold. is thefirst thing astaire in europe is over. the

still banking on the draghi field. we are scooping up bonds obviously. credit markets are at risk here i. think we have had record issuances for every year for the last six years and we continue to the issue quite well. i don't see a big effect on most investment rate spreads. i don't see a big widening as we move to the selection. jonathan: is that complacency? >> i don't think it's necessary complacency as much as you might have a more extreme candidate like you said. and given theat way the political system is set sense, thoseder politicians will have less of an impact. draghi is having more of an impact. monetary policy has more of an impact. the economy has improved. it's not rate. it's at a level where i might support field levels. part of the other thing you see is we are arguing about bonds and you look at the yield on them and you go why? at least if i going to the high-yield market, i have a coupon the yield make some sense and it's higher than the rate of inflation. that makes more of a fundamental investment cents. in a way, we're splitting t

i want to put up a draghi chart. the u.s. two-year yield. it is amazing how in the last number of days, people have said the u.s. to hear is the global litmus paper for all central bankers. draghi, ecb, and the press conference. do i watched the u.s. two-year? william: it is a guideline to where the fed is going. everyone is trying to get a fix on how aggressive the fed will be and what tools they will use. that is where the two-year comes in. the 10 year and 30 are flattening. between the zero and 2's, we have uncertainty. tom: was that a good level of jargon from bill lead? that was trophy-level jargon. steeper wind up with a yield curve at the end of the rate hike cycle? normally you end up with a flat curve at the end of a rate hiking cycle. it could be different because of the cycle? william: we don't have the traditional reason of why the fed would increase interest rates, accelerated prices and rising inflation. inflation is a hope and a prayer. maybe because we have fiscal policy it could get a push. there is no real fiscal policy in

draghi has to say. we hang on the words, try to determine the direction the ecb is going and whether maybe they'll change their guidance today. many people think they're not, but who knows. >>> in terms of the actual ecb and some more official lines coming out, the monetary policy is expected to stay unchanged but you're looking at stronger growth prospects, easing european political risk, and that may lead to a more hawkish tone from mario draghi and perhaps set the stage for what's to come in the future. we have the fx analyst from commerzbank in frankfurt. h i know i pronounced your last name. a couple of extra gs and ys thrown in there. so what do you think the ecb will tell us today and what impact could that have on the euro? >> generally i don't believe that the ecb or ecb president mario draghi will present any news today or change its wording from the last meeting's stateme statement, essentially. but this still might have an impact on markets. eventually speculation regarding an imminent exit

not expecting action from mario draghi. last month his comments were interpreted as a little bit hawkish, so much so that the reaction we saw in markets led to central bank members coming out to soften expectations. as we come into this meeting, shouldn't expect too much on the hawkish side of things. either way a bit of softness today in europe. futures, let's look at them off the back of a slightly negative day yesterday. again off the back of strong gains for the week. the dow called higher by 16 points. >> a couple stocks to keep an eye on. f5 networks reporting modest gains but missing estimates. shares are down sharply under the network company's new ceo. >>> tractor supply's first quarter results were in line with forecasts. the retailer blames the weather for some short comings, but says it is encouraged how customers responded recently and expects strong business this spring. the stock up 1.5%. las vegas sands beating estimates, but revenue came in shy. the las vegas operations were strong, and the is a secasino mn

draghi's next will as tensions ease. will the ecb president consider a faster route to normalizing policy? that is up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ matt: welcome back to bloomberg markets. 41 minutes into the trading session. we are looking at gains of 3.6% in paris. you are looking there at the eiffel tower. it you were long, the french banks, it truly is the city of love today. we are seeing banks gaining 10%. the gains in equities and in the euro as well. front's definitely front and center. city putting out a note this morning reiterating its positive stance on french banks saying on the back of the decreasing political risk premium. the lower sovereign spread. lower uncertainty. ditagricole.and cre since has had its highest 2011. 11.5%,risen as much as most since 2013 in terms of the intraday jump. bnp paribas has hit its highest since 2008 rising as much as 10.3%, the biggest jump since 2011. two of the best performers on the stoxx 600. one of the worst performers is center cup. a different story. this is about the

mario draghi the longest time jumping into bloomberg again. you can see is gdp in the euro area, a stair step up. you could see inflation has been rising. back a bets. the target of inflation is just under 2%. now it is just under 2% again. do you say with that kind of number in place and as much uncertainty hanging over europe, is this really a time to hinder the markets -- give the markets willingness to head toward the quantitative easing door? forecast mario draghi will say something like that later today. of a markete a bit mover. we will see what happens to the euro when we get the statement and mario draghi's press conference. anchor: our guests later in the hour thinks that. lower inflation and the eurozone in a march will be a slow -- still -- showstopper. , thankn hays joining us you so much. later in the show we hear from the jet maker trying to bring back supersonic air travel. the cofounder and ceo. up next we are going to take an in-depth look at president trumps tax plan with bank of america's claudia perrone. this is bloomberg.

nejra: no deviation for draghi. the ecb president says he's not changing his forward guidance amid scant evidence that inflation is stabilizing. global stocks drop as fed minutes point towards a policy change. will it be sparks or smiles as president trump and xi meet in florida later? the leaders of the world's two largest economies come face-to-face. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." we saw a fair amount of reaction yesterday after those minutes from the federal reserve. you can see the euro-dollar pretty much unchanged, off 0.1%. let's look at how european stocks are doing following the recession lower. the stoxx 600 off by 0.6%. european stocks set for there were drop in more than a month. thanks underperforming. part of that down to the minutes we got from the fed, signals that the federal reserve may look at shrinking the central banks balance sheet. also, about equity prices being high. you are seeing a weaker dollar, stronger yen. if you look at the bloomberg dollar index, we seeing that recover a little bi

discussing the ecb and merry of draghi. kathleen hays it is in tokyo because we also have the boj as well. let's start off with the ecb. talking about this freeing up mario draghi. is that his reaction to this race? >> we shall see, risk. mario draghi and his colleagues at the european central bank, the factors they have to consider in front of them when they decide if it is time to get ready to put together that exit strategy and moved to normalize policy as the federal reserve is currently doing. that's what they call when they start tightening policy from an easy stance. handed there been an extreme reaction in the euro, in currency markets today, obviously that is something they would step back and let everything: down, but that is not happening. no actual change was expected at any rate this thursday, but yes, the question is, a strong reaction to the election is off the table, so what will they decide? could they decide to start dropping those hence? this is #1131. gdp is growing, a staircase pattern, but steadily up

draghi wants to avoid. madee: the federal reserve it clear yesterday in the minutes from the last meeting they will telegraph obviously to the market when they're are about to do things. will that be the case as well for the ecb such that no market is going to get blindsided? >> i think so. i think this is the new phase where we saw forward guidance come into play when they were easing. it when theyll see are exiting. i think the fed is the first example of that. i think if the taper is going to be clear, i think they will be specific about how they will taper the balance sheet. i think a similar framework will be used by the ecb as well. in my view, they're probably going to start to look at some kind of control in the eurozone to make sure there is clear information to the market on the policy intention and policy actions. yield curve control. fascinating. how would that work? >> i think this -- we will have to look at japan. what they're doing, they're using their credibility to reduce the pace of buying

i don't think that is necessarily going to be a significant change in draghi's language. i think the shift is to wednesday where we will hear something more from trump on fiscal measures and tax relief and some sort of tax reform humming through. that will be a myth in australia. we will see the key focus. but the ecb, it is removed some uncertainty. we have not got a confirmation emmanuel macron will win this. we have got to believe in the second round there are holes the suggest -- harris poll, 25% win. it should be accurate as well. we hope to see key candidates endorse macron as well. but this removes risk for the ecb and inflation expectations have not really rolled over. but we areositive, not expecting significant change in the rhetoric from mario draghi, not expecting an outright stance. haidi: i want to say do where the polls. we are still traumatized. betty: we have learned our lesson. haidi: we were talking about the paris correspondent about this is the anti-establishment result and also anti-populism. how do you view this outcome? >> i think it should be main

president draghi -- does he have the right approach? jeff: it is a risky approach because you are setting up a split between the data and what you are telling the market, and putting central-bank credibility on the line. so we will see. clearly looking at the chart, it is telling you a clear message that the reflationary theme is predominant throughout most markets is showing up nicely in the european data. the tune from the ecb will have to evolve. jonathan: john, is the ecb falling behind the curve? is this just early data and the effects are going to fade as the months progressed? jonathan b.: the fed is behind the curve and the ecb is not. we are believers in the fact that this is transitory. they have had an uptick in headline inflation, a small pickup in core inflation. although their mandate is clinic the headline, obviously, they look at core, and from our perspective, we do not see the inflationary pressures there that is going to make that core rate go anywhere close to what he wanted to be. there is a clear trend toward highe

president draghi said it is a small recovery. it's good to paul ryan, the house speaker. .> good morning, everyone first, i want to welcome all of our special guests today. it is great to see you here and great to see you can see the work your parents do. don't tell them this but they are actually kind of good at their jobs. we had one last year. >> [inaudible] >> very cool. ok, i digress. today, the president will sign an executive order to improve accountability at the v.a. administration, not nearly enough was done to hold bureaucrats accountable for failing veterans. despite promises to clean things up him only a smattering of people were moved out of their jobs. only a smattering of people were held accountable. the month, the house passed v.a. accountability back to make it easier to bring the kind of steady leadership that we a medical centers so desperately need. last week, the president signed legislation to reduce out-of-pocket costs for veterans and to promote better access to care. these are all very positive steps to

draghi. explain to our audience, why this reticence to even begin to frame a more restrictive policy? where does the reticence come from? is it gdp, fear about unwinding? it is something -- is it somethingo odd we don't see? the main headache for the ecb is the slow recovery in inflation. they do not know why this is the case, ok? as you look at germany, with the lowest on a planet rate in history, wages are maintained. that is the critical issue. nobody seems very confident to forecast a strong core inflation into 2018. without a recovery in the labor market, you cannot remove completely q.e. or negative -- even next year. tom: help all of us with a euro call. antonio, let me start with you, what is the barclays call on euro one year from now? antonio: we are expecting some appreciation for the euro -dollar. that has a lot to do with what the fed will do. i guess now we have more clarity on the ecb, but the fed remains unclear for next week. tom: do you agreed that the fed is the linchpin as

let's get right to the ecb first and reaction we will likely get from mario draghi. will they make any comments on this? that is interesting. certainly the press conference after the meeting, mario draghi will be asked all kinds of questions, and there is no doubt he will be asked questions like that. makers debatecy what they will be deciding in a few days, they are probably breathing a sigh of relief, no shock waves around the french election, and this may open the a strategysidering for exiting their current policy of bond purchases. --will see if the giving they are giving a signal they are headed in that direction. of june, butahead it is not too early for some signals. no policy change is expected on thursday. here is what the ecb will be looking at, because it is all about the economy and inflation this week. 1131, three quarters of steadily rising gdp in the euro area is an encouragement to the ecb to say we don't need to provide much stimulus. 2%,ation rising, closer to pull back a bit, another reason why they might not be an a rush to say anything to defini

it rose a bit when draghi said the risks have diminished. that is drifting low once again against the dollar. down .4%. the euro is still up this week in the wake of the result of the first round of the french election. investors have a lot to weigh on has just meeting that taken place. that's the situation in the currency market. stocks are lower today for the first time. we go now to washington as the gop health care bill gets a second chance. the house freedom caucus formally endorsed a revised version. that happened yesterday. verye following events closely out of washington. it's just one of the moving pieces. kevin cirilli has an exclusive interview with mark meadows of the house freedom caucus. >> we are joined by mark meadows. we're also joined by bloomberg radio audience as well. votes to passe health care reform on saturday? >> if the votes held on saturday certainly the votes will be there. as late as last night and again this morning some of those undecided members of congress primarily on the republican side are so close to yes

dovisha little bit of a which wasmario draghi countered. what does this mean for european bonds? you see german yields going even lower? yeah, what we can say is that inflation is showing no signs of rising. mario draghi has just confirmed that monetary policy for the ecb on the level of short-term rates. said, you're not particularly positive on european bonds generally. why is that? are they too expensive? >> yes, of course. when you look at the german 4 and 30, it's very low. between theead french bond and the german bund is quite low, close to 75 due to political stress in france. nejra: talking about that political risk in france, i wonder how that is affecting your asset allocations. talk to me in terms of equities. yes, if you look at the markets since the beginning of notice thatou may have made akets long policy way and now we are close to plus 5%. it is pretty much the same increase in u.s. equity markets and the same for the world indices which are close to the same. we don't currently have significant risk premium. we think it's something which has to be taken care of

. ♪ ♪ jonathan: we will hear from ecb president mario draghi on thursday. the path to monetary policy organization may be quicker than most economists anticipated. revise guidance as early as june. wieting,s is steven citi private bank, and james athey averaging asset management. exiting thisof program, when do you anticipate those tweaks? how important will the political backdrop be? >> that is a good point. i don't expect the next ecb meeting this week to have a change on policy and forward guidance. it gets interesting from june on. how much they are cognizant of the parliamentary elections in france is difficult to say, but between june and september, i expect them to start steering is towardtapering -- us tapering policy. jonathan: the markets this morning reacting. the prudent action would be to wait for the second round. when you look at inflation data, that is what ecb is going to react to. are they going to continue to wait? steven: i think the ecb took an approach where they did not argue there was a significant eurozone breakup risk. for them to

it president draghi -- does he have the right approach? jeff: it is a risky approach because you are setting up a division. we will say. -- we will see. the chart is saying that the reflationary theme is dominant and showing up nicely in the european data. john, is the ecb falling behind the curve? will the state away as the months progressed? the fed is behind the curve of the ecb is not. we are believers in the fact that this is transitory. they have had an uptick in inflation. although their mandate is clinic the headline, obviously, they look at core, and from our perspective, we do not see the inflationary pressures there element the corporate go anywhere close to what he wanted to be. you look at wage inflation here, there is higher wage inflation. you look at iraq -- you look at europe and you still have slack. in germany, you still don't have inflation because of the migration. ecb'sisagrees with the long-term forecast. we are below that. jonathan: harry? harry: if you divided into the numerator and denominator, the earnings in the

a half percent move after draghi sent the euro lower yesterday. we saw that strong dollar play throughout the session. the dollar against the yen, also stronger. that's a more fractional move. the pound continues to zoom in. heading back towards 1.30. >> election on june th. polls are narrowed a fraction. theresa may still has a big lead. in terms of the euro, the big mover was the french election. yesterday mario draghi, the comments he was slightly hawkish in terms of saying downside risks are diminishing and slightly dovish about inflation. the net effect wasn't a huge move. the big mover has been politics. >> there's gold up a quarter of a percent. >> back to stocks that are driving this rally. starting with google. 21$21.4 billion, that's how muc money google earned in advertising revenue. here's what the cfo had to say about the blowout number on the earnings call. >> we've benefitted from our team answer innovations what has grown advertising rev fews. in a dollar basis the increase has resulted in positive results. >> james cakmak joins us

mario draghi made a small concession to policymaking colleagues wanting to discuss of come up marking a change in his carefully weighted comments. and june 8, the ecb scrutiny on how skewed to m and when it should wind down stimulus. in earlyour meeting march, the cyclical recovery of the euro-area economy is becoming increasingly solid and the downside risks of further diminished. european union leaders meet in brussels on saturday, saying it is all for one against the united kingdom, they will members talkning up unity and warned britain against trying to sew division in their ranks. the eu is increasingly confident it can speak as one when it comes to brexit talks to preserve stability. isna's campaign to clean up .eceiving endorsements they called on the authorities to continue to despite stocks falling to a three-month low. oils gradual recovery is easing big energyr china's companies. profit, neteported income doubled even as output fell slightly. nooc are facing a drop in domestic production. china is ahead of the u.s. as the world's top oil buyer. global news 24 hours a day po

what does it mean for mario draghi? ecb responses say the president will revise forward guidance as early as june, six months sooner. let's get back to ludovic subran . in london. is thanos the polls are right. and i guess that is significant. a largee seems to be amount of the population that is euro skeptic. if you are mario draghi, do you start talking about tapering? ludovic: no, you don't. you don't. -- [indiscernible] the idea that is isn't done yet. francine: i know that you want to look at the markets. like to look at the dax, i'm trying to get this chart up. up, if you put? it is a chart of german optimism. the single most important thing i heard last week in washington when taylor riggs commented on europe car sales. forget about the gloom and the world coming to the end, they are moving bmw -- this is the index and it is getting out to 2006 optimism, the green circle. let's dovetail this with what we have observed in the last 24 hours. what a pleasure for us to talk to mohamed el-erian. round doesn't signal t

i'm sure one person that will be watching this election very carefully is marriott draghi. -- mario draghi. pro-europeup with a candidate in office, what will that mean for mario draghi? bastien: we think that is essentially what we have to look after the elections because we have such an uncertain election in france, that the ecb cannot ake big moves, so if pro-europe candidate winds, probably emmanuel macron, that would be easier for the ecb to communicate. a very gradual exit. that will be easier for the ecb [indiscernible] in this case, we think that in the medium run, we can expect a further rise of the german -- in the second part of the year. guy: so how will that affect the duration call? give us your sense of where you want to be positioned on the kurds, and what it is likely to mean for core to periphery spreads? bastien: so, i would think that in the short term in fact, if a pro-europe candidate winds, it would be a tightening of the sovereign spreads in france, but also in italy, and spain as well. of the german curve, we think that the impacts will be probably very pronounced

people are looking at mario draghi and say you have to be our only hope for a while. after the french election, a window for a real debate on how we move toward proper eurozone integration. if we do not get it, i fear we are to rely on mr. draghi and he is suffering populism and now in the process of tapering his qb purchases which is not good. tom: i do not know why he wasn't the 12th person debating last night. would have been great to see mario draghi with a ford factory worker and a southern former. thanks to our paris office for great coverage on the debate last night, particularly greg for his help. we will come back with barnaby martin. all of this is play shouldn't -- inflation talk and dynamic stock . in the next hour, the market call of a generation, deflation and disinflation, one of our most popular guests, gary shilling will join us on your interfere of inflation. from london and new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ we are waiting for his arrival in florida. before he gets there, he is in finland. a little stop off that is interesting for the chinese prem

draghi is saying this morning, hey, not so fast. carl? >> steve, thank you. we're paying attention to the airlines getting some of the wind knocked out of this morning. >> this is a monumental move. i think one of the things that people have to recognize is that when you get a stock like american down this much, you kind of wonder whether people aren't saying this -- this is the twilight period for the airlines. i don't want too say that but obviously when you have oscar munoz saying what he did this morning and how much they're playing the employees you begin to wonder did we reach the peak? i need kelly from southwest, and my charitable trust owns it, but these are jarring. you're bringing them back to where they were when warren buffett said they might be a good investment. why do we go to gary? the shares are sinsinking, and s is actually a missed quarter in gary kelly's, southwest, hit by the higher operating expenses and decline in fares. gary, i'm glad you're here today. because i have to put this this perspective. you said april's going to be good. ob

. >>> mario draghi says he needs -- he sees no need to deviate from the central bank's stated policy path. he addressed the conference early this morning. >> we are confident our policy is working. and that the outlook for the economy is gradually improving. as a result, the forces that are currently weighing on domestic price pressures should continue to wane. >> this mea had this meant teact two weeks ago, it would have been different, but the tone this morning was more dovish than the hawkish tones at the end of the last formal meeting. i would say what he said here is even if they get to the end of the bond buying program, that doesn't mean rates will go up soon. he cited the improvement they have seen in europe already very much as down to his policy. it's reliant on his policy. he said that about oil prices, too, but they have not seen the structural supply side reforms or fiscal policy support to sugge suggest improvement is coming from anywhere other than his policy. >> they were spooked a bit at the last meeting when the rates jumped. >> we had hit 1.09, so we had come down

still ahead, if marine le pen's business plans to embrace her anti-euro stance, mario and -- mario draghi will likely be called on again to be the savior of the currency. and he do it? this is bloomberg. ♪ [ engine revs ] [ screams ] [ shouting ] brace yourself! this is crazy! [ tires screeching ] whoo! boom baby! rated pg-13. [ screams ] [ [ screams ] ] [ shouting ] brace yourself! this is crazy! [ tires screeching ] whoo! boom baby! rated pg-13. [ screams ] vonnie: live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york and london, i am vonnie quinn. nejra: i am nejra cehic. this is bloomberg markets. let's check in with the bloomberg first word news with emma chandra from new york. petersburg, authorities say a homemade bomb exploded on a subway train. 10 people were killed and dozens were wounded. authorities have found and the activated a bomb at another subway station in the city. opening aanel is weeklong partisan showdown over president trump's supreme court nominee. this comes as democrats are steadily amassing both to block neil gorsuch forcing republicans to unilaterally change lo

draghi's concern or caution about removing monetary stimulus. core inflation isn't picking up yet. they will need more readings like the one we got today to change things, but it doesn't look like it's coming yet. mark: always good to see you, richard jones. go to it on the bloomberg. vonnie: it would not be friday without richard jones. going public on the new york stock exchange, an online platform is changing the way consumers buy cars. companyis a u.s. based and its selling cars out of vending machines. shares trading quite a bit lower. our bloomberg reporter is standing by at the new york stock exchange with the carvana ceo. alex: i'm here and it's the biggest week for ipos in seven months. one of them listed on the exchange today -- i'm here with the chief executive officer of carvana. the pressures of $15 in the middle of that range. how are you feeling about the listing today? >> we are feeling great, for a four company to get here is really exciting. . when you think about your path forward, you have only been making meaningful revenues since 2013. you are relatively young

weigh in on what will hear from mario draghi this time. will we get any hints of a change in guidance to come further down the line? >> that is the hope, i think. it's not going to be quite a cowboy ride. asset purchases down by 20 billion, so they are going to be taking stock of the changes in financial conditions. of theon the heels result, theyed need to constantly look at fundamentals. it's quite assured that the inflation risk has been contained. interesting when you see the u.s. inflation story. the euro-yen up nearly 4% and the euro dolling -- euro-dollar, take a look at the one at the top. where does the euro outperform the most? from the euroank buck? >> there are two competing themes. political upset causes systemic shock. reinforces the behavior we've seen in recent years. hand, it would appear to the political uncertainty in the u.s., middle east, and asia. at this point, but we've seen in recent years is that growth has led to expectations of a stronger u.s. dollar and a weaker yen. on the other hand, as you whenoned in the be

as draghi said yesterday, there's downside risks. we wouldn't take that much notice of the survey data. they seem to be running ahead of the official data, but encouraging nonetheless. uk-wise, we had the q1 gdp number this morning. slightly disappointing. but the main point, yes, we are going through a slowdown. that is leakly to be because of the slowdown in consumer spending growth because of the rise in inflation. >> some are saying we're two years behind the recovery seen in the u.s. is it that bad? >> in the "eurozone it could be more than that. if the uk, not as bad. if that's the case, what do we do with investment strategy? >> you still want to be overweight growth. it feels like if you look at the marginal flow coming in, you have a position in the u.s., that's the driver ahead. probably a bit more focus will be on eurozone, maybe emerging markets and europe in particular. big markets are underpositioned and there could be upside there. >> underpositioned in europe. what do we do with the currencies? >> i would harken back

bullish messages from mario draghi the last time he spoke. when will it start to reflect more positive data coming out from your? -- from europe? nick: we are moving that way. we suspect that is a possibility this week. after the elections in france, they may take a more neutral stance. september, they will move to talks of tapering. think whatou emmanuel macron is promising in that is the french pmi. germany is just on the turn. nick: it may be. we have had this in the u.s. as well. there is the soft data. it has been better than the heart data. look at retail sales. they have not been as strong. there is maybe an extension in those factors, but it is good news and seems to be widening out across europe. germany has been the area growing strongly. that is good news. anna: is m&a big for you in europe? akzonobel is fanning of interest from the united states. nick: if you look at m&a , that was running at about half of the level of the u.s. europe hasn't. europe can catch up. europe,from outside companies are seeing the euro against the dollar

we'll hear from ecb president mario draghi coming up in the next hour. in the meantime, the euro is trading at 10887. comcast beating the street on both the top and bottom lines. the nbc universal parent seeing exceptionally strong performance as well as its revenue and business units. it registered growth in the theme park business. ceo brian roberts joining us in the last hour. >> we reported 15% or 14.7% ref nu -- revenue growth and 24% ebidta growth. this is the fastest start the company is off to in five years across comcast, nbc universal, it was strength to strength. the film division had wonderful results from several films, cable channels, great quarter includes theme parks. >> take a look at shares of comcast this morning, up by about 2.5%. under armour posting a loss. all of this has added up for big gains, the shares up by about 8% right now. >> let's talk more about president trump's economic plans in its first 100 days in office. commercial secretary wilbur ross joined us. >> the rules of origin in nafta need tightening. rules of origin, th

investors will be focused on any signals from draghi. boj,so hear from the widely expected to keep the settings on its monetary easing unchanged. inflation still below the 2% target. earlier, the finance minister said the nation's regional economies are experiencing moderate recovery. still with us, peter kinsella. time to change the forward guidance, time to say the balance of risks is balanced rather than to the downside, or is it too early? peter: a little too early. for inflation, they are still well below the ecb's 2% target. we don't have a deflationary scenario anymore. that was already acknowledged in the march ecb meeting. the messages, steady as she goes. draghi will have to face a problem. the problem is trying to temper expectations. it is pretty clear that some members of core europe, germany, austria, otherwise, they will want the ecb to say, this is how we are going to get out of what we're doing at the moment. that is a risk. ecb, we mayg the end up with some kind of fudge on it, but it is clear the direction of travel is

draghi the adult for the banks now in europe? jacob: he is a very significant and distinguished adult. tom: i agree. francine: thank you so much. jacob frenkel. jp morgan chase international chairman. i think we're getting the french prime minister talking at the moment. we in fact have a live shot from paris. he's talking about the deadly attack yesterday on the champs-elysees. let's get to our reporter who is on the ground in paris. will any of this shift how people will vote on sunday? we're talking to angel gurria, and he says it won't have that much of an effect on how the french choose who they want to go to in the second round. reporter: it will be hard to tell because there's only a few hours left before the end of this campaign because from midnight to tonight french time, the no opinion polls are allowed and no interviews and no campaigning anymore. the opinion poll we had today from opinion way showed the republican candidate was gaining one point and the far left wing candidate was losing of this 18% but 85% poll was

francesco, does he in size draghi ined -- follow ecb policy? francesco: i don't subscribe to changes that a person the policy of an institution. this is a collegiate institution, obviously he under -- represents a camp within that institution, but it is a collegiate institute -- decision they make. there is a change there also coming. that is something markets will have to discount at the point, probably changes in direction. ink there is more continuity in these policies than people make it to be. guy: great to see you this morning. for coming to see us. i have certainly learned a lot about what is going on in the gilt market. , cohead ofarzarelli macro market strategy over at goldman sachs. if you are a bloomberg customer and want to watch the show, you can use the tv function. screen,ccess the video , you will getere an opportunity to watch it but also this little blue button-down here "ask a guest a question." join the conversation is what we are saying. function to do that. it was great to have you along. that is what you can do. , we

ana: mario draghi may take faster route to monetary policy normalization than previously thought. while no policy changes are expected thursday's meeting, most at bloomberg's survey say the president will provide forward guidance is as soon as june. sooner than an earlier poll. an estimate from how long it will take to taper, bringing for depicted rate hike. china's multi-trillion dollar wealth management product industry -- the banking regulatory committee says raise.ding proxy used -- the $4.22 trillion at the end of march, the growth rate plunged from 53% during the same. potential threats to financial stability. prime minister theresa may conservative party is proposing to cut household energy prices as part of the campaign platform. the move is a similar to a proposal made by the then labour party head during the 2015 election. conservatives already more than 20 percentage points ahead of the labor in some polls. u.k. consumer confidence weakened in the first quarter and households with the most pessimistic finances in more than two years going to a study. has -- londontes ho

mario draghi struck an upbeat note on the state of the economy, but not totally without concern. since our meeting in march, confirmed the soap -- cyclical recovery of the economy is becoming increasingly solid and the downside risk have further diminished. surrounding the growth outlook, while moving towards a more balanced configuration are still tilted downside and related to predominantly global factors. senioroining us now, the manager at aberdeen management. we got what we expected in a sense from mario draghi, in terms of policies changes, that was expected, but in terms of how is the ec b expecting data, he had a nuanced message -- he said yes, we had something we are talking about solid and broad but inflation is not where they wanted it to be. i have a chart that shows the challenge they still have. this is not the whole picture, perhaps, but 1.5%, this is not what they wanted to be. >> no, it is not. i think we will see a change into june as well. april is a tricky month for the ecb. we have the elections in france as well. he talked about the international factors, me

and of course, the ecb and mario draghi is saying that. the problem is that our governments are not -- i would say really listening to this message. but you're absolutely right now. it cannot go forever. still, i have to say that what did the central bank to me seems very, very well done in the circumstances and provided they continue to be as strong as possible in sending their message. it seems to me they're doing what should be done. >> all right. the final question i have for you, sir, is, when i look at what our central bank is doing, we have three tightenings, talking about balance sheet reduction and then i contrast that, as you have discussed in your last answer, what mario draghi is doing in europe, what's going on in japan, is there a view of which central banks, japan, europe or u.s., you think are most on the correct path? because sooner or later, sir, they do all have to converge, do they not? >> well, they have already converged, if i may, because they have the same definition of price stability. namely, 2%. so in a way there

it is not a massive vote of confidence in any of the economies despite what mario draghi was saying. that is in contrast to the us federal reserve we re contrast to the us federal reserve were janet yellen and will probably not raise interest rates next wednesday but may lay the groundwork foran wednesday but may lay the groundwork for an increase in june, wednesday but may lay the groundwork for an increase injune, possibly july. there seems to be more confidence in the us, even if there isa confidence in the us, even if there is a creeping concern over whether president trump can deliver on some, all or any of his promises. let's talk about trump. is it fair to say the main driving force behind today's lacklustre performance on the markets on both sides of the pond, was that lack of detail in his tax plan? i think it is. pond, was that lack of detail in his tax plan? ithink it is. it is pond, was that lack of detail in his tax plan? i think it is. it is not clear how the fund will be funded. republicans insist that is the case. it is not clear if the plan will go through. and to be

reporter: mario draghi has made a small concession. policymaking callings wanting to discuss an exit. between now and the june 8 meeting, the ecb faces increasing scrutiny over how and when it should wind down stimulus. >> the data since our meeting in early march confirms the cyclical recovery of the euro area economy is becoming increasingly solid. and that downside risks have diminished. reporter: over to asia and china's campaign to clean up its financial system is winning endorsements. -- theyn is among those called on the authorities to continue despite stocks falling to a three-month low. graduale, oil's recovery is easing the pain of shrinking output. petrochina reported first quarter profits, despite production falling 6% from the year before. are facing a drop in domestic production. asna is ahead of the u.s. the top oil buyer in the world. a rare case where an ester targets a private equity firm. we are told they are discussing the possibility of converting kkr from a partnership to a corporation. and toshiba is set to favor

i think also when people say —— here mario draghi talking, greece talks on funding tomorrow. the italian economy, spain, portugal, none of them performing well. and to major elections, the french election, the german election. the german election important. germany doing well, the rest of europe not so good. james is coming back. iwant rest of europe not so good. james is coming back. i want you to tell us who you are going to go to space with. you have also sent us a lot of thoughts as well. we will read some out later. but so far, most of the money is on elon musk. how is mr branson doing? he hasn't got anyone yet! nobody is voting for him yet. if you are for richard, get in touch quick. you're watching business live from bbc news. still to come, the boss ofjuly is tells us what he is fighting off a takeover. first, let's focus on some of the results out in the uk. the co—op is backin results out in the uk. the co—op is back in the red. the co—op group is back in the red today after it's written off it's remaining stake in the struggling co—op bank. it has posted lo

survey responders say that mario draghi will provide guidance june. at the beginning of march he said it wasn't on the agenda. the strengthening economy season .hanging strategy malaysia in abu dhabi and the greater sediment related to billions of dollars funneled out of 1mbd. they will pay $2.5 million to abu dhabi. malaysia and abu dhabi have been in dispute over the responsibility allegedly stolen the pboc governor has a doctor to reassure intense that china's expected growth target is within reach in that financial risks are under control. on the imf website, an official said they would maintain neutral monetary policies. we are confident of anything any threat. news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts, this is bloomberg. >> we have france voting for change with establishment parties defeated. the final counts as emmanuel 23.8% of thelmost vote. his rival is marine le pen, taking 21.5%. surveys are suggesting that emmanuel macron will win. i would like to say that i realize with my responsibility is and i also know wh

investors were talking about target ofon the ecb's 2% core inflation, a measure that mario draghi likes to look at. .6% for a long time. that is the record low. no evidence of core inflation picking up. inflation is looking in the wrong direction. 90 minutes in the trading day in the u.s. julie: if altering of the run weeks earlier in the day, the down 60 points, that is the toll ibm is taking. more on the dow, and that is for it responsible underperforming versus the other major averages. this is a relatively familiar pattern for ibm even though the company has heat on sales in recent quarters. the stock is not out for. reports the last 11 after we have seen the stock go down, it has gone down in this same range on a not in freak basis here. sales are down for 20 consecutive quarters although the latest drop was a steeper one than estimated, which was in contract -- in contrast with recent quarters. movers we're watching on the upside includes intuitive surgical, the maker of the surgical robot and one reason the nasdaq is outperforming today. that topic posting its fastest procedure g

you have to look at the end of the line fundamentals and without inflation, mario draghi will say we cannot afford to take our foot on the accelerator. the quantitative easing program carried on through this year and probably talking about tapering in 2018. we think there will be accommodative support through 2018. >> last night, we saw a shift from the fed talking about a predictable manner to reduce the balance. how do you interpret? a predictable manner, is there a predictable manner? >> i think there is a path of predictable manner if they thought about it and phase out gradually and do not put the market on cold turkey. they are keen to the exit. the risks are rising. debate this morning on the bloomberg is that can they really stick to three hikes and reduce the balance sheets at the end of the year? what do you make of that? a potential interruption in the hike plan? >> i think they will probably more times hiking 2 and probably announce in december, they are exiting and reducing the balance sheets. i think you will get a slight n the cycle. they are keen to get away from the