or to approach china or stop china from advancing into central asia. from my research, i have not seen too much russian opposition to undermine the chinese effort in the central asia in terms of their infrastructure project. another component on this, is that china actually defined a policy as one of the angles of the maritime, that goes to europe, and i would say the most successful projects between china and russia ever. it has been built and has been producing starting from 2017. but when the chinese wanted to invest in the better port, the russians declined the chinese financing because of the strategic location of the port. what we also see is russia trying almost every single way to invite china to invest in this other area because russia needs to up there infrastructure on the northern ford and doesn't have their infrastructure. the chinese have been very reluctant and what the chinese see is that russia is portraying a concept of dividends in the future and without a willingness to make any compromise to the chinese and on the commercial possib

they are not the interest of china. -- pinterest of china. they are completely different ideas that chinese entrepreneurs came up with on their own and they make money. there is a parallel universe of apps largely different from the american apps. interviewer: you mentioned a company called baidu. what is it? kai-fu: it is the leading chinese search company in china. interviewer: how is it different from search engines in the states? baidu has a similar technology to google. looks similar. the founder independently came up with the all the rhythms -- algorithms. they were similar to google. you talk about the real artificial intelligence crisis. what is it? kai-fu: artificial intelligence will create a of wealth and value. -- a lot of weatlh and value. superintelligent. if you think about these super orrow capable a.i. software robots, they will be able to replace many tasks we do in our jobs and many jobs that exist. many jobs are just repetitious. telesales, telemarketing, customer service, dishwashing. those jobs will be replaced by artifi

not just by china. the indonesians want things that will not fly with china. the vietnamese were so cynical about the process. they staple their own code of conduct to the back. about, maybeked 50% of the easiest issues. there haven't been discussions about the hard-core of the solvency problem. --the code in contact conduct apply? how you operationalize cooperation on things like fisheries? will there be disputes over the mechanism? last 10% of any negotiation is the toughest, they still have 40% to go. that will be pushing it this year don't give me a lot of faith. thailand is now the chair. they will be distracted by delayed elections. they definitely get out of this thing without being tarred and feathered. they will not be proactive on anything. the philippines is the coordinator. they have been relatively ineffective in reading china's willingness to negotiate. they told us there was going to be a code of conduct process and 2017. they said, maybe we will get a deal last year. so far, none of that has been true. manila israel -- is way ahead of china. th

china is in focus. apple has become the latest and biggest corporate casualty of the pullback by the chinese consumer, and the company says the trade war hasn't helped. is this just a china problem? will the rest of tech get dragged down with it? the apple ceo now faces his biggest test since taking over. first, the shocking letter from tim cook to shareholders. apple cutting its revenue outlook for the first time in two decades, citing weaker demand in china amid the ongoing trade war with the united states. apple dropped a big can't that iphone sales -- big hint that iphone sales were dropping in november. here is a take of some of what we've seen on bloomberg television. >> they will still hit an all-time high in earnings-per-share this quarter, so profits per share will still be better, even though revenue will decline for the first time in a long time and, unexpectedly, they have hit a real speedbump in china and with the iphone. >> people who have been watching apple closely for a long time have k

is one of of china and india. dominating the world economy the developed world economy as they catch up through time and there's also also going to be lots and lots of people in the middle east and in africa sub-saharan africa if you look at the projections are just amazing we're going to be adding two and a half china's in terms of total world population in the through the end of the century we have about seventeen twenty percent of world g.d.p. right now we're heading to about five percent of world g.d.p. . so we cannot dominate the world we're going to be a small player three time us more and more player china will be much bigger india will be much bigger in terms of their share of the world's economy so. we can call all the shots and to you know to start picking fights right now with we're going to be in an increasingly small kind of vulnerable position is not a clever idea but we're going to get back to this idea of by the end of this century sub-saharan africa and china and india being delivering economies t

you know they didn't feel that we have to stay in china. i wanted to go and see the world for myself and for me i think i wanted not to have to behave. according to other you know a strict guidelines and i believe i would be a lot fear if i went to the west. hall said goodbye to his family at a train station in beijing goodrem alba would leave soon after. their slice of baked fun my father said to me before i left there's so many beggars and criminals in the west itself in that place if things don't work out for you there you can always come back to us lots of it. indeed chinese newspapers claimed that capitalism in europe was on the verge of collapse. goodrem was worried about that but she left her parents' time and was soon on her way to austria. she arrived in vienna in february nine hundred seventy two. city officials gave her a warm welcome and presented her with a camera. croaks time in china had also come to an end. across the border from. train to hong kong. the world's most certainly exciting place so. i spent ten days going throug

and china, koreans think that they can balance. it's china and japan, it's china. that's the kind of -- autumnal weather this analysis is correct or not. but that's the kind of thing rising in japan. i'm going overtime a bit. so the state of the alliance is a okay. maybe among the policy people, even better during the obama administration. that's the exception. no one thinks that way around the world. but japan does. d-lines is in a better state than during in the obama administration. but, you know, this alliance doesn't exist in a vacuum. it only functions when u.s. is fully committed to the region. and went u.s. has an east asia policy. which you don't quite see. so yes, the alliance is okay. but it doesn't exist in a vacuum. so not extremely, you know, comfortable or optimistic about, you know, how can you know, alliance would kick in when it needs to function, to deal with the situation. you know, your election is coming up. japan is known to be the 51st, you know, state. it may be the most reddest state among the 51 states. i'm joking a bit. but you know, thi

>> the xr is focused on china. focus inly was there china, xr. if you look at the pricing of africane, combined, 8% -- apple specific, 20% other. but a lot is the mispriced phone. this is a huge iphone cycle, given 20% of all overall iphone upgrades are in china. that is the key. that is why in this call coming out, is going to be key to how this turns around as well as the pricing strategy, how tim cook and apple are looking at it. emily: we know there are competing smart phone makers who all make cheaper smartphones, much cheaper than the iphone. but what do you attribute this to? >> just to address the last comment. the entire sector in china fell by the same rate apple did. we also had samsung recording huge losses in market share. we have some chinese players rising in market share, but the overall market is suffering, not just apple. emily: why are some rising and apple not? >> apple does have the premium segment. the premium, you would imagine, would be suffering more, but the overall market fell. i think apple is more or less in the middl

and china for causing some customers to avoid buying u.s. products but analysts say another reason is apple's pricing strategy while prices are dropping on many smartphones from other companies apple has continued to raise its prices the most expensive costing more than sixteen hundred euros but fewer customers are willing to pay such costs for their device. it appears tim cook's strategy of looking to charge a high price to achieve high profits despite lower i phone sales has failed the development could sign the end of a success story that began twelve years ago. well to talk more about a rising or maybe a sputtering china i'm joined now by doug bandow he's a senior fellow at the cato institute in washington he just penned an op ed piece entitled u.s. sign a relationship forty how to deal with china while avoiding war mr bennett was good to have you on the show let me just ask you about what you know it says they say that they've got a china problem and that is made worse by the trade tariff dispute is it possible to separate the the econo

negotiate his talk trade in china can the top two economies find a white out of a trade war. high tech household helpers are all the rage as we take a sneak peek at the consumer electronics show in las vegas. and more than a week dram of concern makers of scotch whisky break peter day global business. i've been fizzling let's do business this is the disputed so us president donald trump first announced high a tariff on chinese steel and before adding many other products creating an all out trade war china is america's biggest trading partner and the experts exports over five hundred billion dollars worth of goods to the u.s. so far washington has threatened to slap tariffs on chinese goods worth around two hundred fifty billion dollars china retaliating or be it to a smaller scale because the u.s. exports fuel goods to the country it said it could impose extra duties on goods worth one hundred ten billion dollars the two countries declared a ninety day ceasefire last month the pressure is on through resolve the dispute before that true six spies and of much if you think that

-china trade war as being an issue for china. it is is not just u.s. firms feeling the pressure. you have a look at the slowdown in sales in samsung, china, looking at traditional names inside china, they have seen slowdowns in discretionary, and that is what apple is, a uy.cretionary b i agree with you there. exposed firms that are either very small or up to a fair and amount to the chinese or asian story will find a downgrade. that is what is happening is you will see a downgrade momentum. ramy: what does this do for the fed, other central banks, in terms of fighting -- in terms of tightening? some are saying a rate cut by 2020. >> i think what is likely to happen, looking at the movement in 2019, what i am starting to really look at, pricing in is a pause. march was always a month that was going to happen. listening to the language that happened at the end of december, what came out of jay powell is they have got to watch. the economy the chance to show they have had a massive movement where you can argue towards are touching the neutral range. let's see how we perform, see wh

the persecution of muslims in china more than a million in detention vilified as radicals and extremists. spreading across the country. by british biology welcome to news. we begin this program's first broadcast with a court judgment that our rights group has called a mockery of the rule of law and it's this four and a half years in prison the chinese lawyer. a sentence for what beijing called subversion of state power without defining what is actual crimes sentenced to a man who's been held in prison for more than three and a half years sentenced to a man not allowed to meet his wife and child in all of that time. is one of more than two hundred lawyers and activists who were detained in twenty fifteen in a crackdown by the chinese government it's a crackdown that's changed people's lives for ever. happier times before he was torn apart before. his son his little longer without a father. for months his wife. did not even know he was alive. authorities kept long's case shrouded in secrecy once they admitted he'd been detained lee was denied any access here she is last december trying to

it's because of china. it's to shape's china's behavior. do you think -- how do you think this is doing in beijing? do you think it's affecting decision-making? >> i mean, it's -- they are going to -- it looks like it's focused on them. they are not taking a sweat about it. and i think it's because they feel that there are internal complications and so on and they are trying to cement that where they can. >> one more prediction i would at the this. we didn't have this as a category. it would fit within, b, infrastructure development. i think you will see increasing cooperation on telecom infrastructure and digital. it's already happening pretty intensely with u.s., japan, and australia. i think india is going to start getting into that game as china's digital -- built an road creates dependencies and stories come out about, you know, how beijing is using other companies to enhance its information gathering and influence. and i think that's good be a feature this year. and maybe a feature in quad meetings as well. i think we will be doing th

in wargames i've been involved in china. i've been on the china team the so-called red team. i would always find if i fight in an american-style the american team would win that particular wargame. if i use chinese style based on their writings for what they would do, attack or nerve centers first for example or attack our satellites in space for the first two hours of the war, if i would use things out of their chinese textbooks than the american team would lose. over time the pentagon learned more and more they can shift it to someone else. as long as the chinese team uses chinese strategy the american team would lose. so i think this is behind president obama's pivot towards asia even though it wasn't as much of the pivot as it should have been its part of the new national security strategy of president trump to take the military balance of power in asia seriously, that we are slowly falling behind of these chinese submarines, jet fighters and tanks are still up. they are continuing to keep the nuclear forces low, nothing like us or the russians. now they are talking about

government that china can create -- huawei can create a backdoor into china. this represents a potential security threat for your country, your sensitive trade secrets, possibly your national security. that is a trade-off that a country has to make. do i want this equipment or do i want the potential for backdoor? where we see the u.s. needing to be more forthcoming possibly is show more why huawei is a threat. yes, they are stealing ip allegedly. yes, they are violating u.s. trade sanctions, but are they a real threat to national security in terms of creating a backdoor for china? are they saying to china's government, come in. listen to these conversations between the u.s. and the allies. emily: still no evidence of that. i want to tie this back to apple earnings because huawei is a big competitor to apple in china. they are not seeing therir share fall like apple. they are in perhaps an advantageous position because apple has to outsource chips, whereas huawei makes its own. that is another part of huawei's business. how is their business going to fare amid

to china u.s. trade war is on the countdown of the world is watching remember both sides agreed to a ninety day truce on december first well that expires at the end of next month and billions of dollars of penalties are still in place for many economists what happens next will prove to be the key factor deciding the outlook for asia's economy in twenty nineteen as the new year gets underway alarm bells are already sounding about a slowdown in the world's second biggest economy and exporting nation china's c.s.i. three hundred index lost around a quarter of its value in twenty eighteen manufacturing orders fell in december the fear is that the impact of a trade war is likely to be felt this year and it could mean weaker growth in countries dependent upon trade with china it's making global investors jumpy about what's in store for the new year as rob reynolds reports now from washington d.c. . stock markets swinging wildly. a bruising global trade war and slowing growth worldwide so what's in store

and china. at the same time, i think sentiment in china has been bynificantly weighed down the trade tensions as well. i think is opportunities in northeast asia, hong kong, the onshorea, but market in china, even though the actual exports may not be that significant, but certainly would be very constructive to market sentiment. >> please stick with us. more from him coming up. a look ahead at gold ending 2018 on a strong note, but will it continue to shine this year? >> next, president trump suggests he wants a deal to end the partial government shutdown. we have the latest from washington. the standoff with democrats continues. >> president trump has invited top congressional leaders from both parties to a meeting on board of security, suggesting he wants to make a deal to end the government shutdown. >> is this a sign of a potential deal to reopen government departments? they've been shut now for 11 days. >> the first time you have really seen since the shutdown started on december 22 of the

/china. so it is an adjustment, putting a bit of a floor on the japan/china relationship as they do every ten-year anniversary of the 1978 treaty but i don't think it is a hedge or tilt away from the u.s., at least under the current government. we are going to open up now to questions from the audience. did you want to add something? okay. we will put that up. we will have to be quick. you will own the mike. thet do the next one, the last question that we have, which is about southeast asia. and which way southeast asia is going to find itself moving for relations. don't forget to turn your clicker on. is "e" the u.n.? good luck that. >> at a time when china is clearly still on the rise, and the united states is to some degree in retreat regionally, and globally, one might expect that china would be the answer and certainly a lot of people in the audience think so. i really think this year is going to, we're not going to see any major change between overall alignments. because china is sort o

is this because of china? is it because of the trade war is it because the global market is slowing down? we know worldwide smartphone buyers are not upgrading as thekly and we know china is third-largest source of revenue for apple and apple tapped into a rising middle-class, a decrease in consumer confidence, fewer chinese consumers are upgrading their phones as quickly. you have got local handset makers selling phones at less that you of the price can get an iphone. all of these things combine seem to be impacting the revenue forecast from apple. it is not a small decrease in the forecast. 5-9,000,000,000 dollars potentially. that is a lot of iphones. >> we're talking about a lot of others but what about categories, was there a silver lining among other products? question in the letter the tim cook wrote to shareholders, she said china accounted for the majority of the shortfall across iphones and ipads and max. merchandise of the they found in china are iphones. she did say other products like apple watch,

and china. joining us to discuss in washington, our reporter who covers financial investigations and also our bloomberg tech who has been following huawei. this certainly marks an escalation. >> we found out from the u.s. officials in the ongoing process that this investigation has been going on for years. this covers quite a few areas. one area is this i.p. theft issue, allegations that they stole intellectual property from t-mobile. that photographs and even a piece of a robot that helps mimic smartphone use was stolen from t-mobile. that's part of it. another part of it is the arrest of c.f.o. and she was arrested several months ago and they are charging that she was conspiring to commit bank fraud. that they used a subsidiary called sky com to root deals with iran and breaking u.s. sanctions against iran. now there are 13 counts in the indictment in brooklyn and two affiliates face charges in washington state. a lot of information we're just hearing now. >> and the deadline for the united st

time, when i was first in china, and we're beginning to see that in the flexiblity china is beginning to show in its trade relations with the united states. when i was in the peking central prison, i remember that the total trade between china and the us was less than $1 billion in 1987. now, the us has a trade deficit with china, which if i'm not mistaken, is somewhere up to $400 billion. that is a real problem and this on so many other things, i would say, just because you dislike trump and there's much to dislike, does not mean he is wrong about everything. no—one is saying that, but does he have the discipline, the patience and the coherence back home to take on, which as you said is a huge rival power? part of the answer is will trump survive as president of the united states? i think that is an open question. but whoever succeeds him is going to have to tackle whether liberal or democrat or republican will have to deal with china. the mexican border is one of them. china is able to change, recognises that the us cannot continue with the deindustrialisation, the transfer ofjobs

-china trade issue. interestingly, steve carlisle came on the air and he said that when it came to the u.s.- china trade war, he was not concerned, in part, because they make most of their cars they sell in china, so they don't have to worry about those tariffs. let's go ahead and take a listen to a few more thoughts. steve: we would be hopeful that these trade issues find their way to the rearview mirror and all that uncertainty starts to subside, but even with that uncertainty, it is still an anonymous market with -- an enormous market with huge upside for cadillac. ramy: not only that, but when it comes to the u.s. consumer and the chinese consumer, there is a and of legacy that does drag little bit on cadillac. but when you look at china, when you think of the last generation , they did not really think about a cadillac to begin with, so it is a very fresh -- it is very fresh and attractive. >> ramy inocencio, think is a much for that. in a moment, markets await theresa may's brexit vote. our next gu

in china. lisa: indeed. although it's interesting to note that apple reiterates its confidence about its presence in china saying that it actually sees it has a bright future, as products are getting adopted there, adamented there. so china kind of toe a narrow line here, saying we're going to do well there. but their economy is swelling. joe: i think the significance of that is they're say it's a significantly cal issue. there could be a deeper question of whether there's a brand backlash. that's something that american companies are on alert for. whether due to the trade war, you get some sort of anti-apple or anti-nike or anti-mcdonald's sort of brand backlash. i think the implication of their optimism in china over the long term is what they're saying is cyclical and not something structurally where their brand is declining in the country. lisa: if you're joining us now, reiterating the breaking news that apple just released. an unusual letter from tim cook, the c.e.o., saying that they are

china tension ahead so there was a big gathering in china at the end of the year and it was an event to mark the fortieth anniversary of thanks shoutings reform and opening up a campaign that unleashed an industrial boom that helped china outlast the soviet union and become the world's second largest economy but coming at the end of she's most most risky or since taking power twenty twelve and also serves to assert his own rule at home and push back against critics abroad so they're on the fortieth anniversary we're about forty years after we went off the gold standard as well so it's interesting they're all colliding but anyone betting they say that chinese president xi shame paying would back down quickly in a trade war with donald trump better think again she told the beijing crowd including some of china's most influential political military and business figures that the country's growing wealth and power had validated the communists parties and thus his own leadership quote no one is in the position to dictate to the chinese people what should and should not be done plus the bon

-china relationship. the question of whether we can get a truce in this trade war -- i think it's really whether they can separate out some of the trade aspects of the relationship from the technology and intellectual property from the structural side, putting them on two different tracks. i'mhey remained together, not sure that you can get a resolution between beijing and washington at this point in time. if you can separate them out to some degree, than i think there's a deal to be made. i think trump actually does want to do a deal. >> ok. let's see what this week's headlines bring to us. david riley. theresap on the show, may steps up her battle to dissuade the british parliament to back her deal, even leaving the option of a second referendum. >> when you are traveling to work, tune in to bloomberg radio, live on your mobile device or digital radio in the london area. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ daybreak: "bloomberg europe." i'm nejra cehic in london. >> i manus cranny in dubai. let's get you to the m

if i were tim cook, i would keep saying china, china, china i think that's a convenient -- i bet he's happy he has china to point a finger at. >> they didn't only blame china. >> he didn't, but -- >> they looked at the product cycle slowing down not playing in because of some -- >> it's nice to say a macro slowdown in economy is affecting things i'm curious how that trade tension came home to roost in apple's -- they have mature cycles >> if you look at some other numbers, if you look at services, services was up 27%. it didn't play through on a lot of those issues. >> this is a quarterly revenue number, isn't it $84 billion. >> the numbers are massive unbelievable >> i had to go back and look that's why i keep saying 5 billion to $9 billion miss. when you look at the numbers, you think it's not that big of a miss, but it's $5 billion to $9 billi billion. >> they're not saying it's a new run rate >> you may think it's convenient to have china, the first thing i thought when i heard these numbers, look at every company doing business in china. nike may be an outlier i don't know if you

-china, u.s.-russia are heading in a direction that is unsustainable and negative, that is not going to go away and clients want to understand timing. 2019 does not look horrible. the markets continue to bounce back. there is upset, panic, but there is not this selloff. francine: let me cut you off because i want to talk about ukraine and i want to bring in my single best chart. this is ruble. it weakens as the oil falls. the concern about ukraine, what happens in the ukraine? you have it as your ninth biggest risk to 2019. which is major since no one really cares about it. you have presidential elections, parliamentary elections. russians werehe interfering in american elections, you have seen nothing until they interfere with ukrainian elections and that will impact their economy in a big way. 1% of theks, took ukrainian gdp. i think 2019 is the year where ukraine is in trouble as the russian vice gets tighter. tom: thank you so much. we have got more on bloomberg surveillance and radio, we will

china remains a real issue. what you are finding now is that these trade negotiations and the trade tensions are having an impact on the united states and china, both leaders have a very strong incentive to do a deal. in my opinion in some ways we put.ibe it a trump there is also a bit of a xi put in the market as well. talk about us being at potentially peak margins. are we there and if so, why should we be there? is china a good kind of solution? will these negotiations lead to something? are,: i'm not so sure we it's been a number 1 -- another one of those things that's been on the laundry list of things people are worried about. especially when you get into tight labor markets, i think it is reasonable to expect at some point that margins will peak. the margins peak well before the market peaks and generally the reason why mark -- margins peak is because economic activity is strong and companies have to pay more for input costs. it's normally associated with higher revenue and the start. it's only later on w

isabel hilton of the website, china dialogue. thomas kielinger, author and long time correspondent of die welt. and john fisher burns of the new york times. welcome to you all. agnes, i'm going to start with you. theresa may is famously resilient and the past week has been yet another stress test for her. the government sustained two defeats in the house of commons, and dead on delivery was the verdict on her withdrawal bill, even from many of her own mps. but nothing daunted, the prime minister has mounted a last ditch campaign to win over political enemies. should we call this determination and admire it or call it desperation and pity it? and what's mrs may's next move if, as widely expected, her bill is defeated in the house of commons on tuesday? agnes, isaid agnes, i said i was when to start with you and i am. is a determination we should admire or desperation we should pity? well, how to not be unrespectable to our british by prime minister. i'm going to try. this pantomime has been going on for 30 months. i think the view

and china. if that continues, that won't allow the medium support for the markets to unfold. >> for whom is trade the biggest problem? clearly seen weak economic data. they have seen huge equity drops in terms of valuations. they are the biggest losers, globally. have they seen more of a drop? are they more likely to bounce back? china has suffered more from the trade war than the u.s. has. is in the process of gaining a deleveraging program. china should bounce more than the u.s. would. asia in general, but china specifically. >> official pmi's are falling into contraction territory. we have seen oil price a little bit weaker on the back of this growth story. in 2015, we have learned that when china sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold. china continues to weaken. that will weigh in on markets more generally. in the last five sessions, the bloomberg dollar index has fallen. we basically see dollar weakness going into 2019. yen strength as well. how do you see that playing out? the main

negotiators start trade talks in china yet again but few hope things will really change can the world's top two economies find a way out of their trade war and calm down financial markets. and the makers of scotch whisky fear breck's it will hurt their global business i'll tell you why export barriers are not the only thing producers are worried about. it's time for business on the w m how you know gas welcome to the program as china and the u.s. resume trade talks both powers are using very positive rhetoric china says it's willing to work together with the u.s. to resolve the months long dispute between the two countries the foreign ministry expressed optimism as talks resumed in beijing and the meeting is the first since u.s. president donald trump and his chinese counterpart she agreed to a ninety day truce in their trade war last month. the u.s. and chinese representatives will need one key quality staying power these trade negotiations are set to be long and difficult nonetheless there's real hope that the trade conflict may finally be brought to an end china has already opted to

japan has a territorial dispute with china in the east china sea . they have territorial disputes with korea and russia as well but the difference there is the disputes with russia and korea, the other side occupies the territory so there is little they can do about the northern territories but in the case of the islands they have administrative control and the chinese are aggressively contesting that control. that dispute is much more in the news in japan. i think just in general the japanese feel the threat of gradually becoming less relevant and being forced to bow to chinese well. so far japan's response has been to enhance security ties with united states. i think that would be a desire to improve security relations with south korea as well. it's very much a mixed bag. prime minister of a travel to china and i think that succeeded at least in restoring japan china relations to the levels of four or 5 years ago but i don't see a possibility of dramatic further improvement giving this a pretty severe differences. >> the last question, it's a big t

and china. and the u.s.019 and china are having a anstructive conversation, little stabilization is warranted. this is a first step and was going to be a long process of trying to understand the process between the u.s. and china. there are significant long-term issues. say thatathleen hays there was some erosion of business and consumer confidence . i think that is fair. we have seen this in cfo confidence surveys. companies were discussing third-quarter earnings over the course of the fourth quarter. we have seen announcements and that tradecompanies was overhanging their activity and their plans for investment. we will be watching this progress closely. i think we could get some stabilization if we make strides towards an agreement. for is going to be an issue multiple years not just quarters. >> that is a critical point that you make. even if we don't see a play out, the concern over animal spirits deteriorating is an issue. we see that in asia as well. i want to put up this chart. it will i

we are where we are with china. these market disruptions are sobering to both sides and the begin to talk to each other about let's put some things on the table that we can both agree to. a career as ant trade negotiator, negotiating these big deals. we have heard from the president's chief economic itvisor and what he said is " is not going to be just apple, i think there are a heck of a lot of companies that have a lot of sales in china that will basic we watch their earnings be downgraded next year until we get a deal with china. that puts a lot of pressure on china to make a deal." there may be pressure on china, but does it also put pressure on president trump? do they recognize that at the white house? rufus: i can get absolutely does put pressure on the president. we elect presidents to be good stewards of the u.s. and global economy weak as that is the leadership role the u.s. us to have. it is one thing to talk about one thing that china needs a deal because their economy is suffering, that americans should

-china trade. i'm still optimistic, charles, the two great economies of the world can reach a better reciprocal understanding. i think that is possible. people say that it will all happen in a few days, they're leading us down the wrong path t will only result in stock market prices dropping when it doesn't happen. charles: michael pillsbury. thank you so much. always great having conversations with you. >> keep up your good reporting. charles: happy new year by the way. check on the big board, dow jones industrial average is off 640 points, near the low of the session. completely collapsing since is the ism report. more "varney" after this. comcast business built the nation's largest gig-speed network. then went beyond. beyond chasing down network problems. to knowing when and where there's an issue. beyond network complexity. to a zero-touch, one-box world. optimizing performance and budget. beyond having questions. to getting answers. "activecore, how's my network?" "all sites are green." all of

and china. do you think this will hinder good faith going forward, particularly with the number of trade hawks on that negotiating team? and the willingness or even ability of china to be able to push through difficult painful restructure -- restructuring reforms that they talked about for years but have not been able to do in order to stick to their gdp target? >> that is why these talks are very crucial and very important. that is why we cannot expect all the demands of the united dates to be met by china. progress will be slow and perhaps these will be beginning steps and there will be further negotiations and discussions over some of the issues that separate china and the united states. how do you enforce intellectual property? how do you before fewer legal system within china? how do you improve your patent system within china? howof course, things like you bring more foreign investment into china? these things will not happen overnight, but the united states perhaps will be looking for mea

think china has a lot of impact not only not on china but u.s. companies that are levered to chinese growth. there are three main reasons why china could provide an upside. the level of growth in china is now the lowest it's been in 30 years, so this means chinese policymakers have their backs against the wall and they are going to do whatever it takes to stimulate growth. typically what we see out of china over the lasso years is central-bank policy response. now we are looking at fiscal policy response. for example, individual interest rate tax rate cuts, deduction changes coming earlier this year, potential for other types of tax changes, including vat tax changes that could have an impact. the reason for that is, when you're seeing out of lenders, borrowers, they are not reacting the way they have in the past two monetary policy stimulus. , theast reason for that is chinese do not expect a globally coordinated response. chinese problems are unique to china this time around, compared to global financial crisis and shortly thereafter. vonnie: i

to china u.s. trade war is on the countdown of the world is watching remember both sides agreed to a ninety day truce on december first well that expires at the end of next month and billions of dollars of penalties are still in place for many economists what happens next will prove to be the key factor deciding the outlook for asia's economy in twenty nineteen as the new year gets underway alarm bells are already sounding about a slowdown in the world's second biggest economy and exporting nation china's c.s.i. three hundred index lost around a quarter of its value in twenty eighteen manufacturing orders fell in december the fear is that the impact of a trade war is likely to be felt this year and it could mean weaker growth in countries dependent upon trade with china it's making global investors jumpy about what's in store for the new year as rob reynolds reports now from washington d.c. . stock markets swinging wildly. a bruising global trade war and slowing growth worldwide so what's in store

i will say this and i say it emphatically if you get a china deal, a meaningful china deal and profits near where expected, we will go higher. >> you have the very first year being 2017 that you had a significant decline. what does that mean as an investor or speculator it's the first year that you department have the trend as your friend. i think in 2019 we might have to be dealing with a marketplace where overall you have a very difficult time establishing any form of a prevailing trend that's more common than we've experienced the last ten years look again at what's going on today in terms of the marketplace, reits and utilities. you see health care which was the leading sector last year down it's meaningless but it's important to understand the environment, and i think trendless might be an important word early in the year >> let's bring in rebecca patterson now, a cnbc contributor. happy new year nice to see you. >> happy new year. >> better or worse from here, what do you think? >> well, i'm leaning towards the better from here in part because of what was said on valuations being

in china. the tech giant has priced themselves out of the world's biggest market. and advisor want more u.s. companies will be forced to downgrade outlooks until there is a trade war deal. nancy pelosi was elected house speaker as democrats took control of the chamber. it makes pelosi the most powerful democrat and returned to the post she held in 2007- 2011. she is the only woman to ever hold the speakership. she outlined and infrastructure plans and called for more government chance -- an infrastructure plan and called from a government transparency. paper says carlos ghosn used a special nissan fund to pay $48 million to business is run by two of his acquaintances in the middle east. it is unclear what the payments were for. ghosn has been accused of understating his pay and breach of trust. he has been in custody since november. the majority of oil executives are planning to boost spending and increase production. 45% of those surveyed say their primary goal for 2019 is to output. more than

and china. dow is up 278 and 100 points off the highs and day 28 of the longest government shutdown on record and this weekend marks two years since president trump took office. let's break down the road ahead. joining us from mike allen, co-founder of axios and then american enterprise institute, named a new president and then cnbc contributor thank you to you both. let me begin with you. on this offer by china for a trillion dollars of u.s. imports over six years, are you at axios learning anything? >> our reporting is nothing big and structural decided by the white house but seeing in the market an optimism that trump's distraction is actually going to work against any bigger aggressive action against china. axios jonathan learned steve mnuchin, the treasury secretary and others are making a market based argument to president trump for a more moderate response to china than where he'd headed and seeing from the markets, just a bet that the president is not going to want to ignite something br

and china on friday. according to larry kudlow, one point maybe a particular interest to apple. >> as a whole issue of ip theft. that may be part of the apple issue. too muchant to surmise but apple technology may have been picked off by china and now china is becoming competitive with apple. you have to have rule of law. inly: to bring and we bring the senior fellow at the asian society. what do you make of that comment? >> it feels like he has ,omething that he wants to say but feels like he can't quite come out and say. he is alluding to some sort of ip theft in china involving apple, possibly, and i'm speculating here, involving hauwei, which is the largest cell phone producer in china and the company very much in the news for the rest of the cfo in december. [coughs] emily: xiaomi also has been accused for a long time of copying apple's design, right? >> certainly. you have the ceo of xiaomi who likes the turtleneck steve jobsian way of giving presentations and had taken -- has taken a lot from apple

china economic relations. last year we asked if economic relations but if you could put up the slide, we ask if relations would improve remain the same, see gradual increase in friction or deteriorate into a trade war, overwhelmingly people came out and i think that was a good prediction. in the sense that in 2018, the trump administration imposed tariffs on $250 billion with of chinese imports, china retaliated on 100 some billion dollars worth of u.s. imports into china and we are obviously caught in a discussion now so we will ask about that and we will now have a new question which is trading tensions will they be resolved this year between the u.s. and china, you have for answers there. interesting. drifting a little bit there, i'm still holding out that we are close . >> bill, do you think that the audience is in the right place? >> i've been watching the market and some of these comments have had no effect. you're safe for at least a few more hours. it's very hard to predict what's gonna happen. i think

and china. this is going to be a really profound challenge that multinational global companies are going to have to deal with. you have seenfar a mixed picture in terms of how much of a concern china is in the earnings. when i spoke to the fap ceo and the philips ceo, they were fairly upbeat on china, but a lot of companies are showing concern, caterpillar among them. and the look at apple tech sector, how much as an investor do you have to think about peak smartphone in terms of which part of the tech sector you want to invest in, or is it not about peak smart, but simply peak iphone? daniel: there are a couple of dynamics -- michael: there are a number of dynamics, especially the pricing of the iphone. you have cheaper models coming out of china, and you have the chinese consumer, who has quite a different purchasing outlook in terms of what they will spend on data with the iphone compared to other pockets is -- compared to other packages. investor, you have to recognize apple is a big chunk o

-china. it's an adjustment, putting a floor under the relationship as they do every 10-year anniversary of the 1978 treaty. it's a hedge or tilt away from the u.s. referring to the current government. we're going to open up now to questions from the audience. want to add something? we'll put that up we'll have to be quick. one, the last xt is tion that we have which which outheast asia and way southeast asia is going to moving for relations. don't forget to turn your clicker on. u.n.?he [laughter] good luck with that. go ahead, amy. china is time when clearly still on the rise and some ited states is to degree in retreat regionally and one might expect that china would be the answer and certainly a lot of people in the audience think so. i really think this year, we're not going to see any major overall tween alignments because china is sort of on its pack heels right now. there is a lot of skepticism about belton road initiative. we have seen some changes in asian countries, notably malaysia