tom: we have mario draghi in this hour. the conversation coming up, including goldman sachs, david solomon and james gorman. this is the heart of american wall street. jonathan: night and day, the experience of wall street in the u.s. and what you would call global wall street. the european situation increasingly difficult. ceo's of the world express something different. tom: standard chartered. key emerging-market bank. i talked to bill winters today. the set in davos from gorman and solomon, winters, trying to move up and repair. jonathan: coming up, catching up with james gorman of morgan stanley. erik schatzker later. also, goldman sachs'david solomon on bloomberg radio and bloomberg tv. as we count you down to an important position from president draghi, unchanged, we expect in frankfurt. the conference, fascinating. concern about the continent increasing. bridgewater on europe. >> they are starting from a worse level in terms of the economy, lower inflation, close to deflation and negative interest rates. that will cl

nevertheless, this was a master class from mario draghi. while the euro was falling, so was implied volatility. this is fascinating. mario draghi barely causing a ripple in the markets at the moment, but moving asset prices. in terms of expectations on where we go from here, the ecb may be is communicating reasonably well. that is where implied volatility sits right now. what we've also seen is a significant move lower in the yield on the german ten-year. two reasons for that. one of which is we saw manufacturing pmi out of germany weaker, and then we have mario draghi. that is what the market reactions look like to the ecb today. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." we are live from london, live from new york, and of course avos.from d ♪ global economy i think is in ok shape. our economists are talking about 3.5% global growth in the u.s.. 2.4% growthng about in the u.s. if you look at just the economy, i think we are doing just fine. the growth trajectory has maybe slowed a little bit, but the underlying economy is chugging along pretty w

and ecb president mario draghi draghi's warning. we have two people claiming to be president of the country. >> top military brass are still throwing support behind maduro. the defense minister and others put their support that they would not be backing down, that they would continue to support him, that they are "still willing to die for their country and their fatherland backing maduro." grip brokenseen a on them yet. davi

but mario draghi speaks, everyone wants to listen. today is important because this is the first press conference we hear from him. obviously, the change in town is pretty evident. vonnie: wonderful stuff. let's check in on the bloomberg first word news. toys to bet trump's attorney general is trying to convince lawmakers he won't interfere with robert mueller's investigation. the senate has begun two --s of president trump is warning that a new minor caravan is forming in honduras. only while were still variable keep the u.s. safe. a group of about 600 migrants is borderto reach the u.s. following the same route used by thousands last year. a federal judge in manhattan has blocked the trump administration's plan to put a question about citizenship on the 2020 senses. that census will help determine elections and federal funding decisions for a decade. the fight over citizenship questions could end up in the supreme court. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts i

are there concerns now about peripheral europe, if mario draghi cannot get off the bottom, and there is a slowdown, what else can he do? noelle: we kind of agree with iain's view that he will come out dovish in march. the gdp numbers, expectations will have to be revised down. at the most recent meeting, he kind of kicked the can to march. we think they will continue to be dovish, european growth will stabilize, and that will stabilize chinese growth. that will be a good environment for credit. taylor: we talk about slowing chinese growth, you're also looking at a slowdown in the u.s. perhaps. what is the impact on emerging markets? jose: in terms of markets, we see rates stabilized. a slowdown has been priced into the bond market pretty well, especially at the long end. .hat lowers interest rates from our perspective, emerging markets look pretty compelling on a debt and equity side. we see prettyly, stable growth, as you alluded to. this year, good growth in em. the question is the currency play. at some point when the dollar peaks -- we saw it in december 20 16 -- and then the nex

what are we going to hear from mario draghi and the ecb? theie: the dollar-yen is dollar focus today, but let's get a quick look at the equity picture. ,ally up 1% on the he averages the s&p 500 erasing all of that right now, barely clinging onto a couple of points a positive movement, but we are seeing earnings with united technologies and ibm up more than 4% right now. comcast up more than 5%. we have the ceo of viacom in this hour, too. to thet's get back banks. brian moynihan remains bullish on the u.s. economy. earlier in davos, and excavation on why he disagrees with some fed critics. >> right now that put them into the neutral range that they talked about four. the markets sorted it out and i say now that ok at this level of accommodation is neutral and therefore more if the economy stronger. they take it, they pull it up a little. guy: brian moynihan talking to jon ferro. i suspect that mario draghi is very much watching what's happening in washington right now. is the federal reserve has its sights set on deutsche bank, they are be

plus, we will get comments from the fed's jay powell and ecb's mario draghi. of course, don't forget there will be u.s.-china trade talks, brexit vote in the you take, the , and the u.s. jobs report. still with me, noelle corum, jose rasco, and iain stealey from jpmorgan asset management. we mentioned the fed coming up next week in the u.s. jobs report and the shutdown. does any of that change your scenario for jay powell? jose: no. we think jay powell is on hold until september. one thing the market should be vigilant of is the seasonal factors in the first quarter are just askew in this business cycle. keep in mind minimum wages went up in a lot of states this year, just like they did last year. do not be surprised by a bit of a jump in wages on the employment report free of it may not be shocked by that. i think the market would not take it well, but i don't think it holds. taylor: noelle, jobs report, the fed, does anything change? noelle: i think the fed goes in june, and that is largely on the growth and inflation picture kind of stabilizing from here. i

what will mario draghi say? data in germany and france. pmi for the european union, generally speaking. u.s. jobless claims. david: earnings also on deck today. the operator of exchange in singapore is out. hyundai is out in an hour. jules pointed out the sk hynix story. starbucks should be out after the close of the u.s. more of a friday morning story here in the asia-pacific. jules: plenty more big-name guests ahead. we will be live at davos speaking with morgan stanley ceo james gorman, david sullivan, and spain's economy minister. plus, an exclusive interview with priscilla chan. the chan-bloomberg initiative cofounder. 9:00 a.m. if you are watching in sydney, 5:00 p.m. if you are in new york. that is it for "bloomberg markets: asia." this is bloomberg. ♪ selina: i'm selina wang in san francisco and this is "bloomberg technology." coming up, tesla shares stumbled -- the carmaker announces it is cutting back on the production of the model x. will profitability once again come under pressure for the company? plus, uber makes a splash a

mario draghi addresses the european parliament today. lifts sanctions on three companies, including aluminum producers. the prices of the metal dip in london. ♪ manus: welcome to "daybreak: europe." we have rallied 13% on the s&p 500 since santa claus came on the 20th of december. what will the fed say this week? is it more important than the trade talks in washington? nymex crude is later, with three days of -- is likeghter, with three days of gains. the venezuelan standoff seems to be for the moment influx. in brent, the lungs are rising the most since august. let's have a look at the rest of the markets. we have a big bellwethers reporting this week as well. has had its biggest one-day drop since 2016. china's demand, this could be the canary in the demand coal mine. china's gas demand could drop in january. that would be the first drop we have seen in a number of years. it has gotten warmer, but we have some big shifts in some of these commodities, a whole variety of stories. nejra: good morning. it does feel like a pivotal week fo

if you want to watch mario draghi, he is still in the parliament, so find him on live . vonnie: less chicken on first word news. thetney: the pentagon warns military cybersecurity is unable to stay ahead of potential attackers. bloomberg has obtained the defense department's assessment of cyber threats. the report says the pentagon's testing is handicapped by a lack of expertise and tools to assess weapons systems. recruiting qualified people is a big issue. and bloomberg has learned of the wto is looking into president trump's tariffs on $250 billion of chinese goods. sources tell bloomberg that the wto is investigating whether the tariffs violate the rle. that all organization -- rule that all organization members give each other the same treatment. a new round of u.s. china trade talks are scheduled to begin this week. president trump says that former starbucks ceo howard schultz "doesn't have the guts to run for president." howard schultz said he was thinking of running in 2020 as a centrist independent candidate. some democrats say that could lead to the president's

euro hitting a 2019 low during mario draghi's press conference. data shows another sign of more we weakness germany manufacturing, pmi hit the lowest level in four years in response, seeing a flight to safety with german ten year down more than 20% over the past one week more economic head winds out of france as well business activity falling unexpectedly in december, dropping at the fastest pace in more than four years, due in part to anti-government protests worth knowing the french equity market is trying to rebound from two year lows, higher by seven-tenths of 1% technology, boosted by strong earnings from apple supplier sd micro electronics. morgan, back to you. >> thank you. >>> let's get to sue herera for a news update. hey, sue. >> hello, morgan hello, everyone. here is what's happening at this hour nancy pelosi reacting after president trump capitulated to her request to postpone delivering the state of the union address in the house chambers until the partial government shutdown is over. >> glad we have that off the table because it was

it's interesting that mario draghi addressed overnight the rising wage pressures. is this the year that structurally we see that transmission finally come through? axel: i don't think it will be a huge issue. it increases productivity, which is true to an extent, but wagers -- wages are more pressure. draghi says higher wages help the consumer. he is quite positive. a lot of what he said was muted and he has downgraded the growth forecast, but he is just facing reality and reflecting that. haven't made a decision other than saying things are a little slower. he does point to various issues around the world and said the odds are high there is a positive outcome to many of them. the reason they have to do a because this moving on has impacted sentiment. motivatedaghi will be to do an exit because he is retiring at the end of the year. i think a rate hike in the eurozone is likely. that means higher volatility in the market. investors have been trying to figure out the health of the global economy not to mnuchin where trade talks are going. when you have this environm

if mario draghi can't get off the bottom, the slowdown. expectations will have to be revised. with this meeting, we kicked the can to march and things will continue to be digest -- dovish. that will be a good environment for credit. and you are looking at slowdown in the u.s., perhaps. what is the slowdown in emerging markets? stabilize.seen rates this has been priced into the bond market pretty well. that lowers interest rates. from our perspective, emerging debt andre on the equity side. we still see pretty stable growth, like he just alluded to. the question for us is the currency played. at some point, when the dollar peaks -- who sought in the dollar peaking in december. >> just hitting that point home with stable growth. is a very good environment for credit. especially assets that are higher-yielding. and valuations, especially high-yield leverage loans have come in a lot. we still think there are very attractive yields here. taylor: that is our next segment. you will throw everybody off. [laughter] >> we have seen 5 billion flow into em this year. taylor: jump in here

yesterday, mario draghi not giving anything they can trade on. the question, the davos question ratee day is, is that tightening cycle over? maybe it is never going to start in 2019. will not be starting in 2019 in europe. it will be difficult for 2020. the european economy is looking in a bad place. we have written several pieces, particularly bearish, the euro against the sterling. the euro will be hit and continue to do. . last year, the narrative was temporary hitting european growth. there have been next are all factors that have come in and weighed further, not least the u.s.-china trade war. china's demand for exports is so important to the euro. the slowdown has hit the euro badly. , thetalian fiscal problem levels in germany, there are a number that are hitting the largest economies. has fallen a long way the last couple of weeks. overall, and 2019, a bearish euro is a sustainable theme. anna: when do these idiosyncratic factors add up to something structural? let's talk about the global growth story. goldman sachs saying global growth i

mario draghi is talking about trade, global uncertainty, et cetera for the euro areas. we will discuss all of that next with jason. this is bloomberg. ♪ vonnie: this is bloomberg markets. let's pick up and talk about what's happening in the european parliament. mario draghi, the president of the ecb, doesn't look like any iser people, he is there, he addressing parliament. he said if things go very wrong, the ecb could use the policy tools again it has been using in the last downturn. the euro is trading a little bit higher but is down on the year. abigail has more. riskrtainly a bearish tone. all down more than 1%. semiconductor index underperforming. appetite not here with the market. that has been the worst day since beginning of january. overall january has been bullish. the big under performer is nvidia. this is a really pretty stunning decline. they of course preannounced their fourth quarter saying the economic weakness out there is hitting the data center, this is very similar to what apple did, preannounced ahead of recording , we look at china the other lagg

mario draghi sending out these alarm bells about growth on the continent. germanyarly when we see , perhaps 1% growth for 2019, and that would mean the so-called powerhouse of the eu would be struggling. yen flat. thereabouts -- 1.07 or thereabouts. the swissie flirting with parity against the dollar. we will be discussing emerging markets, and this is the man himself, mark mobius. he will join us in a few moments. and youave questions are a bloomberg user, use the instant bloomberg function. let's look at the first word news. i will elaborate. sterling jumping on reports that theresa may will have the support of the dup in the brexit vote next week. the news comes as a big warning about the impending divorce. said in the event of a hard split, the plane maker would have to make some tough choices. ,> if there is a no deal brexit airbus will have to make potentially harmful decisions. because we have huge plants here, we will always be here. they are wrong. >> the trump administration is urging all nonemergency federal employees out of venezuela. theington

guy: well mario draghi talk about this next week -- will mario draghi talk about this next week? >> we have seen four of the government councilmembers talk about rate hikes this year, which i think is madness. there were mistakes made in 2011. mario draghi has been the only one mentioning the economic slowdown. both prediction. the numbers out of germany and italy are looking down. creating problems with transportation. draghi will start looking and thinking about putting forward different aspects, but the ecb is not ready for it yet. they may take it up in the march meeting. guy: who would've thought that glacier melts would have been a factor? [laughter] guy: let's talk about brexit. there was research published earlier on talking about the fact that investors are looking at the long end of the gilt market, and then we have a flattening out because they are trying to seek protection from a falling pound and a no deal brexit. you are not convinced by this? >> i think there are two types of the guild curve. one of a more international market, and one that is a domestic pension fu

tom: we have mario draghi in this hour. the conversation coming up, including goldman sachs, david solomon and james gorman. this is the heart of american wall street. jonathan: night and day, the experience of wall

banking stocks per european financials reacted very negatively to comments from mario draghi today and in part, despite the fact that he seemed able to reassure the markets on ofer points, it was the lack consensus on targeted longer-term refinancing options for banks. you can see the strong reactions there. it may be some analysis suggesting the banks are pricing in more negatively or pessimism despite the fact that mario draghi really did seem to try to walk back his earlier comments on the weakness in the eurozone. shery: at least when it comes to his caution, about the european economy, it seems like european data really reaffirmed his position. we got the pmi following to the lowest levels since 2013. not to mention the manufacturing gauge being bad as well. look at this gtv chart on the bloomberg. you can see the citigroup economic surprise data showing beene's readout has disappointing. that would be your line in white. the u.s. is disappointed, but not as much as europe. let's turn to politics in the u.s. on senate is posed to vote two dueling shutdown builds in an hour. a numb

given everything mario draghi i am finding it hard to go long euro-dollar. valentin: it is true, the data is somewhat contradicted by what the ecb expects but we think even in the worst case, when the ecb is forced to go back to its toolbox and unveil a plan b, what to do next if the economy does not do as well as expected, we think the ecb will resort to credit easing tools. in other words, a will of hit the rock bottom in its monetary easing cycle so anything they can do from here would be more credit easing measures. historically, such measures are not negative for the euro. they were positive for growth, but not negative for the currencies. as part of their effort to boost the banks' profitability, we cannot exclude rate hikes, which penalize banks holding excess cash. if the ecb wants to restore parfitt ability, they could -- profitability, they could bring them closer to zero levels and the currency terms, that can play out as a positive development for the currency. i should mention that a big part of the euro selloff since 2015 was the introduction o

among those marking the occasion, the former chief, mario draghi and the eu commission president. indonesia posted its worst trade deficit on record last year, despite a trade war and a slump in the currency. debt was over $1 billion in december. 1975er shortfall since when the bureau first released data. the emerging markets saw it fall to a two decade low against the dollar. world that is climbing at a 234 trillion, more than three times the size of the global economy. the institute of financial says it exceeded 318% of the third quarter of last year. a fraction below the record of 320% seen in the same period of 2016. the financial sector debt rose to $60 trillion, up 10% in a decade. global news 20 were hours a day on air and on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts. i'm paul allen. this is bloomberg. haidi: thank you. we are seeing asian stocks of the highest level in over five weeks. for a check on what is happening now, how does the markets look? >> the rally could be stalling for asian stocks. taking a look at the mood in sydney. a little change this

draghi says about the health of european economy, on inflation, exports, softening demand from china, and on going political uncertainty around the brexit deal and italy. will draghi acknowledge those risks. that's the big question, now since the last ecb meeting in december, european stocks have held up pretty well, up about 1.5% the euro has basically remained flat morgan, back to you. >>> thank you. >>> the dow turning around giving up most of its gains after being up as much as 296 points earlier in the morning. it's now only up about 48 points if it weren't for ibm, it'd actually be negative ibm is contributing 62 positive points right now. >>> how china trade headlines are impacting this morning's market move is coming next. >>> and later microsoft chairman john thompsonis with us. we've got bia g show of "squawk alley. it's going to continue right after this break so all... evening long. ooh, so close. yes, but also all... night through its entirety. come on, all... the time from sunset to sunrise. right. but you can trade... from, from... from darkness to light. ♪ you're no

president mario draghi made the announcement made december the european central bank want to buy bonds on the financial markets start in january. regarding known standard monetary policy measures are net purchases under the us it purchase program will end in december two thousand and eighteen the e.c.b. has been buying government bonds as part of its quantitative easing program which was later expanded to include corporate bonds to make financing cheaper for companies the e.c.b. has spent a staggering two thousand six hundred fifty billion euros on bonds which it will be holding onto for now. it's it be food decide who would those among the moment that is on the scene be has been fulfilling the mandate that it has for the whole eurozone well financed. it is now pulling back from financial relief for southern europe to fulfill its monday it will both northern and southern european countries not. has proceeded with caution allowing the markets time to adapt to more expensive financing for now the main question is whether the e.c.b. will raise the interest rate next year. a major challeng

and mario draghi the departing and incoming directors of the european central bank sent a secret letter to berlusconi the letter was made public by the courier newspaper and drew my.

what mario draghi has to balances this slowdown in economic data. does he still get signals we are going to see tightening from the ecb? does that get offset with mention of ltro's? manus: yes. the he tacitly acknowledged slowdown everyone in davos is talking about? a lovely article this morning. investors seek a flattening yield curve. -- officialial update in march. let's get to davos where the debate continues. haslinda amin is standing by. is anda: whether it synchronized slowdown or not, there is slowdown. the australian finance minister, let's get his take on the global economy. how weak is the global economy? how weak is the chinese economy? >> in australia we are very mindful of the global economic headwinds. what happens in the rest of the world matters to us. in australia the economy continues to perform well. we have continuous growth. inare looking at 3% growth real terms moving forward. the unemployment rate has come down. wages growth is starting to pick up. our outlook is broadly optimistic. >> broadly optimistic, but there are risks.

it dropped after downside risks were flagged by ecb president mario draghi. cultures were discussed. rates are going to stay on changed -- unchanged. brent higher by 1.1%. risks in venezuela for the oil market, up for the third day. let's check on the markets in asia. juliette saly in singapore has more. i'm finding a conundrum seeing tech stocks rally in asia, particularly after what we got from intel and what we saw in u.s. after hours trading. what is behind the rally? juliette: we have taken the q from texas instruments. global wafers as well supporting the overall tech sector. inis a bit of a conundrum terms of what we heard from wilbur ross saying the u.s. and china are miles away from a trade deal. all the major markets closing higher. the nikkei closing higher by 1%. asian stocks on track for a third weekly gain. that is the longest winning streak we have seen since july last year. chinese stocks up by over 1% in late trade hong kong up by 1.4%. let's have a look at stocks and tsmc. tsmc has held the taiex. global wafers also in taipei very strong. te

what do you expect mario draghi to be able to do in the remainder of his term, which i believe ghost of november of this year -- goes through november this year? peter: i do think he will get a chance, and i do think he will raise deposit rate. the question is not quite as you put it, not whether he gets and interest-rate hike through before the economy weakens. i think what we have, on the flipside, we currently have a weak spot, and that's why the fed is going to delay further interest rate hikes. that's why we see stimulus being applied across the globe, including in europe on the fiscal side. that's why we have a window o period of time with the ecb will have to acknowledge that growth is slower, probably do something that will come -- and then the question is whether we will stabilize and slightly accelerate again so the ecb gets a chance to put interest rate hikes through than. that's the question, not whether they get one in before things start crumbling down. anna: if we do see them, not a question of one and done in a tight window. it's going to be the ecb reacting to an acc

and mario draghi the departing and incoming directors of the european central bank sent a secret letter to berlusconi the letter was made public by the courier newspaper and reminds berlusconi of certain key measures the e.c.b. was expecting from its city. these were structural reforms in favor of complete liberalization of local public services through large scale privatization. this secret letterhead major consequences as the european central bank has no power to enforce specific policy on any member states. it was a judgment the judgment of the. what was necessary in this absolutely dramatic circumstances where forty percent of the g.d.p. of the. was under attack. one of. the berlusconi government did in fact implements many of the measures proposed in the letter it also tried covertly to reintroduce provisions for the privatization of water which the italian people had voted down in the referendum the course official court intervenes and said no you cannot rein should use. legal provisions to of been repealed as a result of a referral. this prompted european commissioner olli rehn t

this week, the head of the european central bank, mario draghi, warned the european parliament that the region's economy was weaker than expected. he pointed to global factors, notably the us—china trade war and, of course, brexit. an early estimate showed inflation slowing to 1.6% in december, well below the ecb's target of 2%. the european central bank is forecasting growth of 1.7% this year, but that could prove to be optimistic. europe's biggest economy germany saw growth slow to 1.5% in 2018, the weakest in five years. in fact, it narrowly avoided falling into recession in the second half. the ecb is running out of options. its main interest rate is already at zero and it has already pumped $2.9 trillion into the economy over the last four years. now, there are big concerns over the impact of brexit. on wednesday, joachim lang of the german industry association bdi warned a hard brexit would be economically very damaging to germany and the wider eu, as well as to the uk. translation: all areas are affected from the car industry to chemicals, pharmaceuticals, engineering, electron

and mario draghi the departing and incoming directors of the european central bank sent a secret letter to berlusconi the letter was made public by the courier newspaper and reminds berlusconi of certain key measures the e.c.b. was expecting from its city. these were structural reforms in favor of complete liberalization of local public services through large scale privatization. this secret letterhead major consequences as the european central bank has no power to enforce specific policies on any member states. it was a judgment the judgment of the. absolutely dramatic circumstances where forty percent of the g.d.p. of the. attack. one of. the berlusconi government did in fact implements many of the measures proposed in the letter it also tried covertly to reintroduce provisions for the privatization of water which the italian people had voted down in the referendum the course official court intervenes. no you cannot rein should use. legal provisions to of been repealed as a result of her for us. this prompted european commissioner olli rand to write another letter to berlusconi seekin

president mario draghi made the announcement with december the european central bank won't buy bonds on the financial markets start in january. regarding known standard monetary policy measures are net purchases under the us that purchase program will end in december two thousand and eighteen the e.c.b. has been buying government bonds as part of its quantitative easing program which was later expanded to include corporate bonds to make financing cheaper for companies the e.c.b. has spent a staggering two thousand six hundred fifty billion euros on bonds which it will be holding onto for now. it's it be food decide who would those among the moment the e.c.b. has been fulfilling the mandate that it has for the whole eurozone well financed. it is now pulling back from financial relief for southern europe to fulfill its monday to both northern and southern european countries not. has proceeded with caution allowing the markets time to adapt to more expensive financing for now the main question is whether the e.c.b. will raise the interest rate next year. a major challenge facing germany

president mario draghi made the announcement mid december the european central bank want to buy bonds on the financial markets start in january. regarding known standard monetary policy measures are net purchases under the us it purchase program will end in december two thousand and eighteen the e.c.b. has been buying government bonds as part of its quantitative easing program which was later expanded to include corporate bonds to make financing cheaper for companies the e.c.b. has spent a staggering two thousand six hundred fifty billion euros on bonds which it will be holding onto for now. it's it being a food decide who would those months at the moment the e.c.b. has been fulfilling the mandate that it has for the whole eurozone well financed. it is now pulling back from financial relief for southern europe to fulfill its monday at both northern and southern european countries not the e.c.b. has proceeded with caution allowing the markets time to adapt to more expensive financing for now the main question is whether the e.c.b. will raise the interest rate next year. a major challen

i wonder with mario draghi, how is he going to handle slowing growth? are already not really off the bottom in terms of low rates. what other tools is he going to use if growth starts to go more negative? richard: the first thing i think we need to say about the ecb is their ambition for normalizing policy has been really quite muted compared to what we've seen out of the u.s. effect that they actually ended the qe purchases last month was a decisive step, but they really kept their optionality open for this year and next. i think the market has done a lot of work for them in saying that the likelihood of a rate rise this year is very low. i think it gives the ecb that flex ability to keep an eye on the data. let's see if the slowdown is transitory like they are saying it is, or whether it is something that is longer-lasting and a bigger concern for them. to kept their options open. there's not a lot priced into the market. if they do decide to hold back from raising rates this year, it won't be a massive shock to the market. guy: let's talk a little bi

and ecb president mario draghi draghi's warning. we have two people claiming to be president of the country. >> top military brass are still throwing support behind maduro. the defense minister and others put their support that they would not be backing down, that they would continue to support him, that they are "still willing to die for their country and their fatherland backing maduro." grip brokenseen a on them yet. david: the new division between the rank-and-file and the leadership. is behindstand, it maduro. lot of we have seen a that. even this week, there was a small situation in caracas. they were calling soldiers to break ranks. they were sending videos on social media, and this broke all across caracas. so we are seeing it, but we have not seen it on a huge scale yet. david: all right, andrew, thank you so much, andrew rosati reporting in caracas. aul, we heard from mario draghi, and he was right saying that the risk has shifted to the downside. paul: yes, and that was frightening. the euro moves lower on those remarks.

mario draghi might not be the man to raise rates. recalibrated has -- chairman powell has recalibrated his model, talking about a bit of patience, rich miller talking about how the fed is grappling with its balance sheet as well. kennedy, we will catch up with him. looking ahead to mario draghi -- earlier on, we spoke to bill gates. he's the cofounder of microsoft and chairman of the bill and melinda gates foundation. >> our foundation has put over $10 billion into those efforts. billion,it is $100 most of the money has come from foreign aid budgets. we are saying let's look at that track record, let's look at the constant learning that is taking place and maintain that commitment because we can get even further. replenishment for those two funds coming up over the next year. the first one is in october in france. any time someone looks at this, they are enthused. avoid the fact that it is far away, there's other things, we will avoid this getting overlooked. worry thats there a this will get overlooked? innovation through medicine -

well mario draghi make some kind of similar statement, david? david: we are already actually seeing that a little bit in europe. earlier last year, the ecb essentially hinting at the first hike coming in september. they said after summer, rates could potentially rise. after the rate in december, they hinted more toward a december hike. that is being pushed off a bit already in europe as the picture does not look as favorable as maybe a day six months ago. guy: euro-dollar bouncing all over the place, but it has gone up, oddly enough, after we have seen powell speaking, now at 1. 1408. if we were to see that become a reality throw 2019, that will mean the ecb will struggle even harder to make its inflation mandate and will be back to companies talking about the head whens they face from -- headwinds they face from a stronger euro. what kind of numbers should we plug-in for the currency? david: that currency is being driven by loops in risk assets, so people are concerned by the significance. we havely the movements seen have been relatively small

mario draghi said they need to keep stimulus up for growth, not so much geopolitics. geopolitics,way would there be a case for europe? camp of lowin the structural growth in europe for extended time. it is already discounted in the markets. you're getting paid for it. that is the question for investors. we are getting close. relative to global asset allocation opportunities, there are other places we would rather be. growth in the u.s. will slow down but slow down to below 2's. not a half a percentage point. we are good in valuations after the selloff. we do not see the same opportunity in europe now. alix: what do spreads predict? putri: in the u.s., credit spread is reflecting good fundamentals. 2.5% growth. low expectation of default. in europe, the spread is tighter due to ecb support. the spread is reflecting the fact that although that support is going to taper, it is still generally positive, because they are reinvesting. if yougiven that view, want to invest in credit, where is the biggest bargain now? biggest upside opportunity given the price? putri: as a fo

listen i don't doubt that mario draghi's in a pickle here but this is of their own making. i don't think they timed it out right. i don't think they -- let's rephrase i think mario draghi and the ecb are waiting for the absolute perfect picture perfect opportunity to normalize rates there's no such thing and not many tools left in the tool box to make a bigger balance sheet or go even more negative than the deposit rate minus 40 basis points and considering how weak their economy has been with that medicine applied i don't think the latter will they go to recession? i think out of the major economies on the globe right now putting china aside because i don't trust their numbers, i think europe could >> although, rick, i'm not sure it was really the opportunity for him to hike rates here but a question of the economy -- >> no, not recently, yes yeah not recently i think there were opportunities. yeah, no you know what? you make a good point. let's go with that let's say after they made their balance sheet large, after they dropped rates the my noinus 40, there was no opportu

what we also have to look forward to this week, ecb president mario draghi. tom: it is off the radar and it should not be. some people saying even the imf cool down yesterday wasn't enough. draghin: and president has stayed out of the spotlight over the last couple of months. even though it is europe that is looking really soft relative to the space. i would say that it is a set of central bank -- if we try to stagger as well, it is a complete mystery of what the governor will do. this is fascinating. this is about technology, the overlay of technology. that it with a gentleman has experience in scandinavia and at verizon as the chief executive officer. he had a three-hour interview on technology worldwide. let me start with the obvious question. why did you take the job? what a challenge to take on verizon. >> i am excited to bring in new technologies. i think verizon is one of the best technology companies in the world. but you are senior vice president of triage at the same time. for this, $4 billion for that, and you have taken them right down. you are th

mario draghi made the announcement, the european central bank won't buy bonds on the financial markets starting in january. >> regarding nonstandard potency -- policy measures, the next purchase will end in december of 2018. the ecb has been buying government bonds as part of its quantitative easing program. that was later expanded to make financncing cheaper r for compa. the e ecb has spent a staggering 2006 euros on bonds. -- 2000 6 million euros on bonds. >> they have been for filling the mandate that it has. it is now pulling back from financial relief to fulfill its mandatate for both northern and southern european countries. the ecb has proceeded with caution, allowing the markets time to adapt to more financial -- extensive financing. the question is whether they will raise the rate next year. >> the japanese have been flocking to retailers to stock up on one of the new year gastronomical rituals. it is all about boxes packed with notices s such as caviar ad troubles. they sometimes have two or three layers. the most luxurious ones can sell for nearly $1500. you are watching due

expectations that mario draghi will signal that those risks remain to the downside and then we have the fed on deck next week. this is interesting, there are only expectations of a 2.6% chance they hike rates. three months ago, that was nearly 80%. it really shows you how much things have changed over the past three months. it is something that our own bank of canada governor has had to grapple with. bloomberg got a chance to speak with the bank of canada governor at davos and got his take on everything from the trade war to government data. shape,economy is in good we have a couple of things we are dealing with, low oil prices for one, uncertainty around the future of the global trading system, which of course is a big one. but that is something we all share. ratepretty big change in expectations between december and january for the bank of canada. in a january meeting you didn't raise rates. the expectations of the market is we may not see anything this year. is that your view, would you hang on to the idea that there are quite a few rate rises to go? >> a combination of things going

comments from mario draghi, and we hit record territory in the united states as we have the government shutdown to the weekend. and hornby, mary bowers david lafferty --tom atteberry. if the bloomberg terminal had a life the president declared a state of emergency, would that mean anything all to market participants or just be noise? tom: you have to look at it from are you an investor or a trader? i would look at that using go wow, i have no way of understanding it will go this direction or the other. job --nvestor, might those sorts of things you sort of have to ignore them and go what is the best for the capital we are responsible for deploying and push it aside. lisa: i agree. if anything that is the government shutdown is over because they declared a state of emergency in congress can now pass a budget that is good. people are back to work, getting their paychecks. we are missing data prince because of this. -- data because of this. jonathan: i have heard a few people make that bullish argument. you know how we do it in the rapidfire around right here on "bloomberg real yield." ,

draghi. of course, they will be trade talks come a brexit vote in the u k, and the u.s. jobs report. , is a from hsbc private bank america, i andan from jpmorgan. we mentioned the fed coming up next week the u.s. jobs report and the shutdown. change for jayt powell? >> know, we think he's on a roll but i think one thing the market should be vigilant of is the seasonal factors the first quarter are just ask you. keep in mind, minimum wages went up in a lot of states glycated last year. don't be surprised by that bit of a jump in wages on the employment report, but don't be shocked i that if the market would not take that well, but i don't think it holds. fed, doesport and the anything change? >> i think the fed goes in june, that's largely on the growth end, stabilizing from here. in terms of next week, not much is going to change from the rhetoric that we've seen earlier this month. as we get into march, it's going to be more interesting because barely anything is priced in 2019 in terms of h

is there any possibility that mario draghi or the central bank andraise rates this year get back to at least zero or do we remain deep in negative territory? questionswer to that is a bit more complicated, because looking at the database, look at the data it is slowing down. if we look at the position the ecb is in and many central banks find themselves in, they want to normalize. there's a lot of arguments that week negative interface has called for a lot of byproducts so no doubt they want to normalize. if they were to be able to hike interest rates, what we might be looking at is probably something to do with the deposit rate, deeply in negative territory, trying to potentially normalize the rate. they may be able to pass it off as a technical move, particularly if they are doing lots in terms of liquidity. but the question is out there, and it will be out there for the next month, depending on the economic data. anna: thank you very much. jane stays with us. let's take a look at the sectors on the move this morning, just coming up to 20 minutes into your trading day. it is a negati

up next, mario draghi reiterate state is "weaker than expected" as europe slows down. we look at where you should be putting your money. this is bloomberg. anna: welcome back to the european open. we our 25 minutes into your trading day, and let's get some final thoughts with lucy macdonald from allianz global investors. we heard from mario draghi talking about how the slowdown in europe was more severe than expected by the ecb. how are you investing in europe so you are not caught out by the slowness in the data? lucy: well, within europe i think, as we said, there has been quite a lot of de-risking already, for areas which have been exposed to china. and although we are now seeing that coming through in the numbers, as we go through the isr, the stimulus in china highly likely to come through with a stabilization there. and so i think that looks like quite an interesting area if you are thinking in the medium-term, which is what we do. looking at some of those areas that are a bit depressed in valuation, currently seeing downgrades. as that stabilizes throughout the

comments from mario draghi, and governor kuroda coming up as well. and we hit record territory in the united states for the length of a government shutdown. lisa hornby, mary bowers and tom atteberry. i want to pick up there quickly and briefly if we can. if the bloomberg terminal had a headline that the president declared a state of emergency, would that mean anything all to market participants or just be noise? tom: you have to look at it from are you an investor or a trader? we are not traders. even if i was, i would look at that news and go, wow, i have no way of understanding it will go this direction or the other. as an investor, my job is a steward of capital, those sorts of things, you have to ignore them and go, what is the best for the capital we are responsible for deploying, and you kind of have to push it aside. lisa: i agree. i think, if anything, it means the government shutdown is over because they declared a state of emergency and congress can now pass a budget, that is good. people are back to work, getting their paychecks. the data