renews his attacks on fed chair jay powell. exclusiveom our interview with the standard lights aberdeen boss. >> we have to ask ourselves why he is commenting on the dollar. he clearly wants it weaker. are 30 minutes away from the start of trading. let's take a look at what is going on in terms of treasuries. this will give you a clue as to whether or not we are looking at a risk on market today. you can see that on thursday we were down 2.66%. now we are up to 2.76%. investors are willing to let go of the perceived safety of u.s. government debt and wade into equities. take a look at futures. we have positive trade across european equity indexes. futures i should say. we are looking at gains of a 0.4% on dax futures right now. ftse futures are up about 0.4% as well. a little bit less than that. what do you see on the gmm? we see appetite for stocks, not so much for fixed income. that seems to be the risk-on nature. we see appetite for equities in hong kong and china. .ll this talk about trade what can we expect from the growth story out of china in the year ahead? that is going to be a

jay powell speaking at the press conference. of course, you can join dots by how much do you think the fed is stretching its mandate? do you think they have a goal of getting the stock market to not selloff? byproduct ofod having jobs? patrick: it is the market selloff that has created the dovish tilt. i don't think the economy has weakened markedly from where we were looking. there were some warning signs in december. the economy has gotten weaker. i don't think the shift that we have seen is justified from the deteriorating market. reaction from a fed that is going to hike regardless of some slowing measures. powell changed his tune on that. the interest rate policy being patient make perfect sense to me. i think it is a policy mistake to not hike if we get inflation past 2% the american economy is driven by consumer. i don't see that changing right now. i think they are leading to dovish. that we may have gone the other way in the two dovish fed that is supporting markets rather than looking at the economy. matt: how important is the u.s.-china trade deal? if the outlook changes

the presidency, but it is interesting because jay powell have said that we need to go on pause. we want to be patient. i wanted to pull up a chart because it sounds like president trump is saying it is the fed's fault that the dollar, and here it is, has gotten stronger. it was weakening all through 2017. what was happening then? fed was raising rates what else was happening in 2017? president trump's approval rating, this white line, going down. isn't that interesting? low. still relatively it has gone up a bit more. maybe the dollar will follow. at 46%, the highest it has been in a while. the president's approval rating. it is something that i do not expect fed officials to respond to. maybe they will talk more about a strong dollar. a strong dollar does tighten financial conditions after all. also major central bank action. perhaps in action instead of what are we expecting? kathleen: we want to see what is happening in the u.s. , the consumer spending numbers came in, down 0.5%. as we wait for six fed officials to speak this week including jay powell, we expect to hear more wha

markets had a learning curve. i feel like jay powell had something of a learning curve too? >> he certainly has. this has not been the easiest last year for him since he has been in office. but i think the main factor that really shifted between last february and now is the fact that the markets completely priced out any fed hikes throughout the rest of 2019. in fact have begun to price in rate cuts this year. so as long as markets don't perceive the fed to be a threat, then it really is not going to matter if you start to see things like what you saw today with wage inflation being particularly hot. the only caveat i would throw out there, we did see particular weakness in the length of the work week especially with manufacturers. that is it one of the strongest sources of the current expansion, has been this renaissance in manufacturing. we did see it, severe weakness in the length of manufacturing work weeks. i worry it might also be this wage growth that we're discussing. it might also be a reflection of the fact there are more managers working right now and fewer workers as w

. jay powell turning even more dovish than we expected. reporter: absolutely. recently as december, the federal reserve was signaling gradual rate hikes this year. people said the consensus was, people thought three could easily be done, and here we are three months later, the fed looking at its economic projections again and changing their mind are medically -- dramatically. when jay powell went to the press conference, he gave his prepared remarks, strong economic fundamentals, the labor market is strong, a positive view. he acknowledged the data that they have to see if it plays out. also talking about the slowdown china.pe and he says it's a good time for the fed to watch and wait. he also talked about inflation. core inflation he said would be 2% at the fed target, but because of cheaper oriole, the headline will be below. this is important to what the fed decided today. let's listen. inflation a little bit below our target, particularly headline inflation will be meaningfully below the target for this year because of lower oil prices, and that gives us the ability to be patient an

the jay powell. some comments coming out this weekend from the conservative political action consult a meeting. here in the u.s. it was not very good when it came to words about jay powell. ros: well, yes. jay powell, soon to be known as a gentleman who likes a strong dollar -- excuse me. and most of us thought the trump tower spat was a one-sided spat in trump's favor, was over. the two of them had a dinner, a sit-down down dinner in february. steven mnuchin was there as well. they had a steak. they talked about the economy. trumperal, it seemed like had stopped his criticism of the fed. and at the same time, the fed had stopped raising interest rates. and powell and most of the other fed officials have talked for a month or more about being very patient on rates. a lot of people think the fed rate hiking cycle is over. or very close to being over. all of a sudden, at the cpac meeting, president trump was back on powell's case again. a little bit unclear if he was going back throughmeeting, press back on greatest hits, it was an epic two-hour speech from trump. he talked about a lot o

direction depending on the economy. hays is here.n however the risks jay powell felt the need -- how bad were the risks jay powell felt the need to do this? kathleen: were they say, why are we hiking rates when inflation is barely at target -- those are the questions absolutely. jay powell faced the room full of reporters, a lot of great questions coming in. they might see strong economic fundamentals for we have a positive view of the economy. weakve seen week data -- data, but now is the time for the fed to watch and wait. >> the data is not currently sending a signal which suggests moving in either direction, which is why we are being patient. we feel our policy rate is in the range of neutral, economy growing at trend, inflation close to target, unemployment under 3%. we must be patient and see how things involve. -- evolve. kathleen: the fed was supposed to cut the forecast from two hikes to one but instead, nothing. they also cut the gdp forecast. 2.1 from 2.3 is a big move. they talked about the slowdown in europe and china. jay powell did, and he sees a positive outcome even for

koreans are saying the u.s. could have missed an opportunity. taylor: jay powell answers questions on capitol hill while policy experts share insights with bloomberg. the key factors that are driving growth in germany are still intact. >> capital investment has moved the system. >> my best judgment is it is probably not done yet. taylor: warren buffett sends out his annual letter. a merger of gold miners takes a hostile turn. earnings season continues, with beats, mrs., and reactions. >> the environment is a little lower in 2019. taylor: it is all straight ahead on bloomberg best. ♪ taylor: hello and welcome. i'm taylor riggs. this is bloomberg best, your review of the most important news and interviews from bloomberg television around the world. let's start with a look at the top headlines. on monday, investors found themselves under less stress after an encouraging development in u.s. trade negotiations with china. >> president trump is extending the trade truce with china. citing substantial progress in the latest rounds of talks. however, there's a less optimistic tone from beij

another appearance from jay powell. ♪ jonathan: this is bloomberg real yield. over the next week we have an fomc rate decision coming up. largely expected to remain unchanged. the fed is also delivering a conference with us. a boe rate decision thursday. and then the chinese president will be catching up with the italians of the end of the week. through the weekend you will get an opec meeting. lots going on through the weekend and next week. weekend and next week. >> we areo change the dots. the bold move would be to go to zero. no rate hikes at all. i think that could be supported by the strong dovish pivot. given they are bent to stay gradualist, maybe they go to one. but certainly they will ratchet lower the hikes. just as important if not more important is the clarification on their plan for the balance sheet. they have signaled it will stay larger than projected. and, when do they end the shrinking process? sooner rather than later is our bet, but that will be important as a rate decision. >> i think he hit the highlights. it is in the market price that the dots are going to move t

appearance from jay powell. this is bloomberg real yield. ♪ jonathan: this is bloomberg real yield. we have an fomc rate decision coming up. it is expected to remain unchanged. the fed is also delivering a conference with us. the chinese president will be catching up with the italians of the end of the week. lots going on through the weekend and next week. next up the fed meeting week, what are you looking for? >> we are looking for the fed to change the dots. a bold move would be to go to zero. no rate hikes at all. that could be supported by the strong dovish pivot. to stayey are bent gradualist, maybe they go to one.. the important is clarification on their plan for the balance sheet. end the shrinking process? sooner rather than later is our bit. >> i think he hit the highlights. it is in the market price that the dots are going to move to zero or one. anythingising issue is that comes out that moves the markets is going to be more information on the balance sheet area. if we get any of that, that will be surprising. howother important thing is does he handle the questions in the q

. president. jay powell saying he plans to say or -- serve his entire term, trump cannot fire him. also saying the baking system is more resilient than it was precrisis, but the large amount of corporate borrowing could potentially amplify downturn. but patience is still key when it comes to fed chair powell. he is also speaking about some global risks from china to brexit. we will get a lot more in terms of the context of what he is saying with kathleen hays, but in the meantime she will bring us the first word news. kathleen: you did a wonderful job of the jay powell headlines. boeing is sending a team to assist in the investigation of an ethiopians crash which killed while all 157 people on board. it came down shortly after takeoff and the airlines as the plane had not shown any problems on an earlier flight from johannesburg. it raises more concerns about the max plane, after the same play -- plane crashed earlier. reports say theresa may lost the backing of all but two of her cabinets. members have discussed whether she should resign and some say that would happen this week i

slamming the fed cpac. some of his critics are admitting he was right about jay powell and the fed. that's next. naysayer said no one would subscribe to a car the way they subscribe to movies. we don't follow the naysayers. ♪ ♪ conventional wisdom says you can't make a 400 horsepower sedan, that's also environmentally conscious. we don't follow conventional wisdom. ♪ ♪ president trump: we have a gentleman who likes raising interest rates in the fed. we have a gentleman who loves quantitative tightening in the fed. we have a gentleman who likes a very strong dollar in the fed. so with all of those things -- and we want a strong dollar, but let's be reasonable. i want a strong dollar. but i want a dollar that will be great for our country. david: the president slamming jay powell and the fed saying rate hikes are hurting the country. is he laying the ground work for the fed to take the fall if the economy tanks? >> you think? he's putting up the fall guy just in case. i don't want the president talking markets and talking fed. but at this point in time it's wishful thinking with this

. attempt torump's blame federal reserve chairman jay powell for the hiccup in the economy have made a home -- come back, this time directed at the president's conservative base, as you your support his reelection campaign. a rally in maryland, he says the u.s. dollar is too strong, criticized i will as someone likes to raise interest rates. but many investors and economists are learning to turn out the so-called noise with the dollar continuing to strengthen today. the jeanna smialek is here with more. noise or not, that is a subjective monitor or what the president is tweeting. how likely is the president to get his wish for a weaker dollar? >> based on the analysis we are hearing, based on the story my colleague wrote today, not likely. u.s. growth looks much stronger and the data looks much stronger than what we are seeing globally, which should speak to a stronger dollar. the thing that could weaken the dollar, would make president trump and jay powell happy, because that would be a starter performance in europe, china, in these places abroad that are really imperiling the global

lot on boeing coming up. the risk of recession where are we? federal reserve chairman jay powell with the biggest threat to u.s. economy in a new interview last night what he said about global economy and president trump coming up and then tesla doing u-turn to keep more stores open and raise prices that comes as ceo elon musk faces deadline to explain why he shouldn't be held in con tempght of court over his tweets. morningses with maria begins right now. ♪ all right taking a look at the futures this is morning start of the week where we stand dow industrials down 150 ponts right now that is our market. impact of boeing shares down about another 9% our top story this hour is the border wall funding showdown. president trump's budget proposal set to be released this morning. in it the president will ask for 8.6 billion dollars of funding of barriers on southern border. on sunday morning future i spoke with wyoming smart about what the president decided on that number. how does he arrive at 6.8 billion? >> he asked experts where we should be putting our best efforts they've come up w

than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus: thanks for the roundup. jay powell is holding rates steady. global risks featured heavily in the decision. he cited growing trends from abroad including slowing growth in china and europe as well as brexit. while the central banks dovishness may be reanimating the animal spirits, risks large on global outlooks. john roe was the head of multi-asset funds at legal and general investment management. i have gone to reflecting back on your last comment. you talk about china. the jp morgan a-shares. what i want to get a sense from you is, we shifted our view. we really have shifted our view on china. , what does this do to the trade deal? >> there's a lot of expectation there will be a trade deal. the comments overnight from trump around keeping tariffs in place are more realistic. he will do a deal, but he wants to keep the issue life because it is useful for his reelection campaign. he does not have that many places he can have an impact with the split house, but it's that kind of -- it really is the trade deal where he can keep control of

. the russell outperforming this year. and we are awaiting some comments from jay powell today saying that the economy looks .ood but they will get that the 10 year is trading at a very narrow range. it is the narrowest trading range in any quarter going back to 1965. we just got breaking news out of bmw, they are basically warning of a profit slump. this is hurting share prices. it is down 2.5%. they basically warned that earnings will fall well below last year's level and that means they will have an efficiency drive to offset around 22 billion euros, offset the impact conflicts. will had to brussels tomorrow to ask for an extension. she will not be asking for a long delay. but the extension poses a risk the u.k. could be differing -- deferring. maria, let's kick it off with you. it's the eu is very clear. the u.k. needs to choose what they are asking for. do they want a long extension or short extension on the eu side? maria: a lot of it will depend on the content. the prime minister will ask for a short extension. measure, aen to the short extension only makes sense if the prime m

positive for the trade talks. and jay powell told "60 minutes" the economy looks pretty good and there will be no recession this year. so the s&p will be up six points, nasdaq up about 30. >>> the president wants the wall and he's upped the ante. his budget calls for $8.6 billion for the border and it also includes $2.7 trillion worth of spending cuts. you can see a fight coming with congress a mile off. >>> there's a lot to go after today, this monday morning. yes, more from aoc, just wait until you hear what she says happens to you if you don't have a job. "varney & company" is about to begin. >>> we should not be haunted by the specter of being automated out of work. we should be excited by that. the reason we're not excited by it is because we live in a society where if you don't have a job, you are left to die. stuart: what? what? did you hear that? ashley: no. stuart: in my opinion, utter and abject nonsense from aoc at the south by southwest festival. come in, brian westbury with first trust. i don't want to spend too long on this but she also called capitalism irredeemable. giv

really feel like jay powell didn't need to actually remove both of the dots for 2019. plen more meetings in front of him that he could have done that so that's where it reallyets bold. that's where it exceeded expectations. this fed made a pivot fro being auto pilot hawkish in december to patient in january and now they're even more patient. what does this tell us? it tells us the fed is at neutral, literally at neutral and the next move could be a hike or a cut in interest rates. my guess is the next move is a hike. t andnk that probably comes in the first part oft 2020. but riw the fed has reinforced the fact that they're really patient and that's probably a tailwind for the market. he>> so what doestock market do with that? clearly for wall street, no more hikes at least for the foreseeable future is a good thing, but they alsodowngrade the forecast on the economy. that's not such a good thing. so where doehe stock market go, do you think? >> i think you really would rather have the fed tightening rather than cutting their rates. we know the first quarter is likely going to b

appetite for risk assets. jonathan: i asked you if you liked jay powell, and you said you did because he makes mistakes. there are opportunities to seize on those mistakes. he has corrected his path radically in the last couple of months. do you see him carving out a new path in the next couple of months? greg: that is a nice way of saying it, jonathan. it is a constant struggle as he communicates and changes often and is trying to regulate the markets. i think what is different today versus several months ago is it seems increasingly so that he wants to support the markets. he's almost explicitly saying that, but the testimony this week was uneventful. maybe he is learning along the way but i think he will be a source of volatility this year. jonathan: what are your thoughts? mary: i agree, there is less opportunity. in high-yield, spreads have tightened and there is no major catalyst for tightening. if anything, we risk seeing things reverse a bit. jonathan: as you say, spreads are tight a model 400 basis points on high-yield. a lot of people are trying to wonder what brings

" starts now. jonathan: coming up, very little in the u.s. economic data to test fed chair jay powell's newfound patience. looking at china and focusing on the silver lining. off to the best year since 2001, the lowest weighted to debt. we begin with a big issue, space in the global economic turnaround. the consensus is the u.s. is about to slow and slow and it doesn't. >> we are at a bottoming phase. a lot of it is in the rearview mirror. >> we gone through a process in the equity market up pricing in material weakness. >> reversal and sentiment of the dark days of december. >> which is maybe why the market ignore the negative data. >> the market is confirming we are getting good macro data. >> we can get the chinese wheel spinning. >> china will stabilize. >> you're seeing shreds of this in nevada we just got. >> drip drip of positive data is telling a story that it is not getting significantly worse. jonathan: joining me around the table is portfolio manager of hsbc global management. in london, aviva investors' fixed income manager. very much a glass half full week, even th

up, u.s. economic data, jay powell newly found patien ce. bonds up to the best start for the year since 2001. the lowest rated yet leading the charge. >> the consensus has been the u.s. is about to slow and it doesn't. >> we are in a bottoming phase right now. >> we have gone through a process in the equity market of already pricing in. >>'s a reversal from december. >> which may be why the market itself can ignore the economic data. maybe not quite as late cycle as a lot of people thought we were. >> china will actually stabilize. >> you see shreds of this in the data. telling thet's story that it's not getting significantly worse which is where we were about a month, two months ago. portfolio manager hsbc global asset management, and in london, fixed income manager. greg, i want to begin with you. the data has not been that great. >> hope springs eternal and you saw it on a conference call. were talking about a difficult environment but they are optimistic about the future. i think that's what investors are seeing and feeling. i think it's about the comfort around the fed not mo

. >> the north koreans are saying that the u.s. could have missed an opportunity. >> fed chair jay powell answers questions on capitol hill, while monetary policy experts say insight with bloomberg. >> the key factors that are driving growth in germany are still intact. >> the impact on capital investment has actually moved the system. >> my best judgment is the fed is probably not done yet. >> warren buffett sends out his annual letter. earnings season continues, with beats, misses, and reaction. >> we continue to growed good stuff that's been growing fast. >> the whole economic environment is a little bit lower in 2019. >> it is all straight ahead on bloomberg best. taylor: hello and welcome. i'm taylor riggs. this is bloomberg best, your weekly review of the most important business news, analysis, and interviews from bloomberg television around the world. let's start with a look at the top headlines. monday, investors found themselves under less stress after an encouraging development in u.s. trade negotiations with china. >> president trump is extending the trade truce with china, siting subs

, inflation. it is jay powell once again getting ready to update those sets and last time they did it was in december. we will be waiting to see if ory keep the dots at two one. left, a veryom the narrow consensus that there will be two rate hikes. fed officials were looking for even more this year, and several said there could be maybe none at all. maybe move the markets and the we surveyedrvey -- analysts and they are looking for the fed signal. we will also be waiting to see if jay powell says anything more about when they are going to stop running down the balance sheet. a couple fed officials said it could happen by the second half and if they are at all concerned about expectations rising in the u.s. on market. economy, what the is jay powell likely to say >> how will he characterize it? >> how has been so focused. you have a strong labor market, gdp is still growing, slowing from 2% to 3%. even so, it is still healthy. he did say at the list press conference in january that he would see inflation rising to get back on the rate hike task and you know he will talk about the globa

or did you hear anything off-track? >> jay powell was very much on message. he's doing his best not to move the market at all. it appears that he succeeded in not moving the markets at all. he repeated the sort of now-standard fed prescription for the economy of patience, watch the data as it comes in. the economy slowing, but at a pretty good spot. he says if inflation is low, there's no reason to worry about raising rates, we'll keep an eye on things going forward. david: big news out of europe today. prime minister theresa may gave a report to parliament on progress on her brexit plan. in giving that report, she laid out next steps, either approve the plan or take another route. >> it's been an extraordinary 24 hours. we've been major policy reversals. both from the labour leader and from the prime minister herself. both must be said are tactical. jeremy corbyn is trying to prevent labour mps from his party and theresa may says it will not just be a vote on a deal, but a vote on whether no deal should happen or whether the government should request a delay to the march 29 exit da

? >> jay powell was very much on message. it is peers -- it appears he succeeded in not moving the markets. we will watch the data as it comes in. the economy slowing, but at a pretty good. he says if inflation is no -- low, there is no reason to raise it and will keep an eye on it going forward. >> theresa may gave a report to parliament and it is either, but another plan or take another route. >> we have seen major policy reversals. both must be said are tactical. jeremy corbyn is trying to prevent those from leaving his party and theresa may says it will not just be a vote on a deal, but a vote on whether no deal should happen or whether the government should request a delay to the march 29 exit date. the key she said would be a short extension. does this take no deal off the table? no, it doesn't. >> military tensions between india and pakistan have not helped markets this morning and they have escalated the most serious level in decades. the pakistani military says it has downed to indian aircrafts, a day after the indian air force bombed a training camp earlier. >> pakistan h

slightly below the average estimate on wall street. joe: president trump's attempt to blame jay powell for the u.s. economy is back in headlines. he said the u.s. dollars too strong and criticized powell as someone who likes raising interest rates. many investors and economists are learning to tune out the noise but the dollar continuing to strengthen today. our reporters are here with more. just from an economic perspective, is it fair to blame jay powell for the strengthening dollar, and is it fair to say the dollar has been a drag on the u.s. economy? >> this is such an interesting time for this particular criticism to calm. certainly you could have made the case last year. the fed has just signal that it pause.ause -- on it is interesting that this is the conversation we're having. romaine: why are we having this conversation? why,erstand politically but when you talk to people in market, they don't seem as concerned about this. or in a phase where we are just making something out of nothing? think there's probably some serious political posturing going on here. there is a broader ques

number look at interview with jay powell. let's take a look at the jobs report. very mixed visage. kathleen: it was but the thing that caught everyone's attention, payroll rose just 20,000 people in february, the smallest gain since february 2017. people say, i am showing you footage, clearing the airport in seattle in february. the pacific northwest doesn't get this kind of weather but the whole northwest was like this, people say it had to be a part of this, government shutdown, you had -- maybe that is what we are seeing. let's look at this chart. it really underscores what happened. you can see the three-month moving average for jobs was stayinground $250,000, here with this big drop, still around 100 $88,000. how often do you go up and then down like that? not often. this guy at j.p. morgan saying this 20,000 a month seems to confirm other things, the economy slowing down. john williams said 3% 2018, it will be 2% in 2019. doesn't they get is a catastrophe but a slow down. this is one of the most positive parts of his story. wages of course were up. look at this chart, wages

. >> president trump's attempt to blame federal reserve chairman jay powell for a hiccup in the u.s. economy has made a comeback. he says the u.s. dollar is too strong and criticized jerome powell "likes raising interest rates." how likely is the president to get his wish for a weaker dollar? >> not likely. the data is stronger here than globally. it should speak towards a stronger dollar. the thing that could weaken the dollar would make president trump and jay powell happy because that would be a stronger performance in places abroad that are impairing the global economic outlook. if you see the slow down take hold in germany and china turnaround, you could see a weaker dollar and everyone would be happy about that. >> president trump is trying to counter what he believes are unfair trade practices. yesterday, the u.s. president notified congress he intends to terminate key trade preferences for india and turkey. what does it mean for india and turkey? >> it is a surprise, because the various protagonists in this debate have been talking for some time. i think the talks with india go back to a

aircraft in five months. -- jay powell. the fed chair indicates he is in no hurry. policymakers are watching economic conditions at home and abroad. no deal. theresa may is trying to get her brexit plan through parliament. in 18n leaves the block days. nejra: good morning, everyone and welcome to daybreak europe. it has just gone 7:00 a.m. in london. i want to break to use some german january industrial output data. the estimate was for an increase of 0.5 percent and what we actually have is a drop of 0.8% month on month. another weaker -- another data point showing weakness in europe. friday, factory output. around global growth. global equities last week had their worst week since december. dropping every day last week dropping more than 2%. we could get a bit of a bounce back today. deck futures up 0.25%. cap futures up higher as well -- cac 40 futures up higher as well. the boeing story -- boeing is a big component of the doubt index. dow an eye on the transportation index. friday, 11 straight days of decline, the longest losing streak in 47 years. could tell you something about

jay powell had food for thought on friday with those payroll numbers. maybe thinking about cutting, not raising. horrible shocker. recovery on american markets. if you were wrong, you are on the wrong side of things. david: it has picked up a little when china opened up. you compared to 90 minutes back when it was only japan and australia. hong kong opened up and has listed some of these markets. asking if thee rally was showing signs of fatigue. it seems like we have a mixed picture to start our monday morning. last week was a pretty torrid one. worst week when it came to global equities since december. it was the china story that made it worse with the csi 300 drop of 4%. we have recovered, but slightly by a half of 1% for your large-cap this morning. we did see a turnaround as dave mentioned. hong kong is also up a fourth of 1%. dollar is stronger. that is one thing to keep in mind. we are seeing more resilient in some of these. they are pretty strong related trade currencies like the south orean won anti-bot -- and thai baht. there seems to be pushing back here, including on an

trade deal. donald trump takes a swipe at jay powell overrate policy. he's simply talking down the dollar. >> we've got to ask ourselves why he's commenting on the dollar. he clearly wants it weaker. nejra: and refreshing the deal as to resume prepares to return her brexit plan to parliament, hardliners outlander conditions for support. ♪ -- outline their conditions for support. ♪ manus: welcome to daybreak europe. the yuan is rising. at what juncture does the rally pose a threat to the chinese economy? that's the question i have for our guest host. in the seeing a shift chinese aside, china ready to abolish case-by-case approvals in terms of foreign investment. yuan is rising. when does that become risk? it is barnstorming. now, volumes are also high. jpmorgan and goldman sachs make the case you want to buy more china, but you want to be overweight stocks and you want to be overweight that you want -- the yuan. you have to be selective in terms of jpmorgan. and wti is also rising, as well. you've got a risk on mood in the market because of the potential for trade deal. we coul

analysts apparently include federal reserve chair jay powell who just yesterday reduced the fed's forecast for u.s. gdp growth in 2019 citing weaker global growth. joining me now, one of the authors of the politico piece who i'm guessing is getting annihilated on twitter right now. chief economic correspondent of politico, ben white. >> yes. >> i am quite sure the twitterverse is hitting you with a, say what? so i'm going to ask you to explain because for me, when i hear jay powell talk about a slowdown, that's going to hurt gdp, and we know we've been in expansion for quite some time. >> it also means jay powell is not going to continue to raise interest rates which will make any slowdown less bad. that's good for trump. the overarching theme of this piece is a couple of things. incumbent presidents usually win re-election. they almost always win in a strong economy. we're in a strong economy. i talked to multiple people who run models from yale, from moody's. moody's ran 12 different models that include political attributes of the president and where the economy is going. in all

points of cutting power. >> if you could ask fed chair jay powell one question today, what would it be >> i would ask chairman powell what are his expectations for inflation visa vi the stimulus that we just had i'm curious to know whether they believe that this past stimulus was totally non-inflationary are we just simply not going to see it anywhere? we're finally starting to see some wage growth the reality is the phillips curve is flatter wage growth isn't as high as it was before the crisis hit. we're still, you know, at least 75 bips below the growth rates of wages before the crisis, and if you believe that that's because of the gi give economy and structurally the markets are different, i don't know that that's a healthy sign for growth going forward in the united states meaning that we could be caught in this really low growth environment for a very long time that keeps the 30-year really trapped in a range >> okay. gina sanchez, thank you for the thoughts this morning. we are going to have full coverage of today's big fed decision and jay powell's comments and news conferen

talking about, jay powell, he is probably more of a household name and household interest than he would have been otherwise. >> they all are, though. i don't know why not go on cnbc or something? what kind of questions is he going to get from, i don't know who is going to do it? rare interview we'll have more on that next then, later, markets lower ahead of today's big jobs report our panel will be here to preview the report and provide instant reaction once we have it plus, big interview later this morning on cnbc. soft bank ceo masa son sitting down exclusively with david saber. it's a can't miss interview. sfx: [phone ringing] you still have service? call the insurance company it's them, calling us. it's going to be a week before they can get through on these roads shhh, sorry, i didn't catch that. i said ask how soon they can be here not you. right now? what's now? he says they're surveying our property now they're probably at the wrong house i don't see any hovering his name is hovering? look up? by using machine learning and analytics to automate claims, cognizant is helping

what would the downside be? >> substantial half the rally put on the backs of the fact that jay powell switched his position. and i would say probably half of it is -- when domes to the industrials, 40% of business done overseas. half of it off the belief that china will be better semis are almost entirely related to china so you lose that loeadership group, will you default to health care? domestics have been abysmal during this period i think it is important. i think there has to be a deal i hate to be dire about it if he walks away, the president walks away right now, you would see -- >> i'll tell you, jim, there are plenty of people who say he should walk away, it was not worth this fight if you're going to end up with a largely an agreement that says we'll lower tariffs and we'll buy more of your stuff that's not enough. >> it is supposed to be roll back of the 2025 -- i call it the world domination, but made in china play. the made in china means, listen, we can cut out -- there is another that says they have to do intellectual property because they themselves have a lot of intellectual p

rises, inviting the fed. president once again takes aim at jay powell. president trump: i want a strong dollar. i want a dollar that will be strong for our country, not a dollar that is so strong it is prohibitive for us to be dealing with other nations and taking their business. ♪ francine: welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." this is what the markets are doing. stoxx 600 gaining 0.4% overall. we are seeing signs of progress between china -- between beijing and washington over the trade deals. that is in the context of the people's congress, also starting this week in china. the pounds, we are expecting more backing for theresa may's deal, probably coming from the hardliner brexiteers. coming up here on "bloomberg surveillance week -- "bloomberg we hear about the trade deal and brexit. let's get to the bloomberg first word news. 's ceo is suing canada for wrongful the tension. rights wereer breached and is seeking damages for what she's has announced a false imprisonment. china is accusing china of abetting the political persecution of huawei. she was arrested after a request from th

annabel gillis. this is bloomberg. yousef? yousef: our top story, jay powell repeated interest rates can remain on hold as policymakers -- and policy is new in an appropriate place. the fed is looking at growth, job numbers, and inflation as it considers its next move. he said his watching china, europe, and brexit. >> patients means we don't feel any hurry to change interest rate policy. what's happened in the last 90 or so days, we've seen increasing evidence of the global economy slowing down, although our own economy is continuing to perform well. yousef: his comments come after payrolls came in 20,000 for february, the fewest jobs added in a month since september of 2017. wage gains indicate tightening labor market. the head of debt capital markets at the gulf investment corporation joins us from the line from kuwait city. the strategists we spoken to underscore that the fed's view is better expressed in the rates rather than the fx market. how do you see that particular asset class moving forward, given what we've heard in the last few days from the fed? guest: good morning, yousef

whether jay powell's reluctance to hike rates will hurt the entire market system down the road. >>> and admiral mike mullen is the former chairman of the joint chiefs of staff. we asked him here in a fox business exclusive because he's got a surprising assessment of what he says is america's greatest threat and no, it's not another country. >>> plus, a retail renaissance. elon musk's crazy busy weekend both in space and on earth. and avoiding an avalanche of risk. what to invest in to do that. less than an hour to the closing bell. let's start the "countdown." liz: the terrifying sound of a warning before a powerful tornado swept through alabama, leaving this and 23 people dead. the weather service says the ef-4 twister's wind speeds hit 170 miles per hour. one county sheriff saying it looked as if someone had taken a blade and just scraped the ground. officials are expecting the death toll to rise as the search for survivors continues. let's get to the markets. >>> stocks are sharply lower on a pretty volatile trading day but still off session lows of more than 400 points for the dow.

: quick break and the federal reserve is in focus, chairman jay powell yesterday with growth fears are what will bring -- probably no more rate hikes in 2019. closer look at exactly what powell said yesterday about the economy and arnold schwarzenegger is firing back, the former california governor taking on president trump after comments on senator john mccain, all right ahead, after this. of r own version of best ball. because here, you can choose any car in the aisle, even if it's a better car class than the one you reserved. so no matter what, you're guaranteed to have a perfect drive. [laughter] (vo) go national. go like a pro. see what i did there? ok look, if you're not the lead dog, the scenery never changes. that's why this is the view for every other full-size pickup. and this year, it's déjà vu all over again 'cuz only the ford f-150 with its high strength, military-grade aluminum alloy body gives you best-in-class torque, best-in-class payload... and you got it, baby... best-in-class towing. still leading the pack. this is the big dog! this is the ford f-150. it doesn't j

ben bernanke was a believer in efficient markets. i don't think jay powell is. but the more information you can get out there,the better that chances are the market discounts things more realistically than just being baseded on rumor and false expectations >> this sounds what used to be b called the full hangout route. right? >> that's a pretty radical statement and i'm not sure that was a wise thing to do, but i agree with again with our friend from jpmorgan that this is a time for them to just study carefully. they're responsible people, good people, earnest people and they're just trying to get this right. i may have disagreed with making that statement, but i don't disagree with the nonaction taken here >> when steve was going through what has changed, there were so many headlines there i was of the cynical mind set about the fed was coming down to what the markets had been expecting, to what has been on the equity sifd tside of the markets for the fed. do you think this shows they are being i don't want to say held hostage, but using the markets, being guided by what th

disenfranchisement and if you listen to jay powell, maybe monetary policy will too. what does that mean for you and your money? i will let you know right after the break. ♪ i switched to liberty mutual because they let me customize my insurance, and as a fitness junkie, i customize everything. like my bike and my calves. liberty mutual customizes your car insurance so you only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ i'm begging you... take gas-x.ed beneath the duvet your tossing and turning isn't restlessness, it's gas! gas-x relieves pressure, bloating and discomfort... fast! so we can all sleep easier tonight. >> given the positive outlook but also muted inflation pressures and the cross currents i mentioned the federal open market committee is going to be patient as we determine what future adjustments to the target rate for the federal funds rate may be appropriate to support our objectives. this common sense risk management approach has served the committee well often in the past. charles: fed chair jay powell speaking in new york last night, using that