jay powell facing questions moments from now. we're anticipating that we hope maybe that the cut in interest rates come up. i said today he must make it clear that the next fed move is unambiguous. i think wall street wants it to be a rate cut. all that and so much more on making money. ♪ deputy trade talks with china are underway as we speak. clearing way for higher level discussions on thursday. this amid disarray between the two sides. u.s. blacklisting 28 more companies and companies finding them in vise grip over the negative hong kong protests. head of white house trade and manufacturing director, peter navarro. peter, wall street sees, we have so much good will building up. china buying soybeans. paypal makes a big acquisition. both sides making nice. this morning or overnight we're hit with levy of new tariffs or blacklisting in this case on companies over human rights violations. does this suggest that human rights and maybe even hong kong will now be a pivotal part of negotiations? >> good afternoon, charles. by the w

he is human, jay powell. we thought the fed would cut, they didn't cut, thought they would go 50 but went 25, to spite trump, is that a possibility in your mind? >> i think they both want the same thing, a strong u.s. economy and be shielded against the rest of the world. how they get there are different. remember a bunch people voting on fed, not just him. his comment about volcker raise your eyebrow, make you concerned. in the end i don't think he would motivate himself to do something wrong. he is trying to protect what he has done. charles: you don't think he would put his ego ahead of his job. >> i think they have done a good job. our economy is still relatively strong. gain fully employment. we're not overly inflated. not hot anywhere in the economy. to that point i would defend him. charles: we have to acknowledge though that the jay powell of december 19th, that hiked rates again, suggested there would be two more hikes. then the jay powell of january 4th, okay, you know what i had the epiphany that w

powell saying that inflation is booming. for someone such as unassuming as all of us here who remember the days when rates were above 20% and inflation was raging, inflation below 2%, it does not look particularly firm. is this an endemic problem in developed economies and what is the plan to resuscitate it? roberto: it is certainly an endemic problem because inflation is low not just in the u.s., but in other countries around the world, especially in the developed world. there are a ton of reasons for that ranging from competition, technology, demographics, local activity, you name it. a lot of issues are structural and not cyclical. a central bank can and will, like the fed, will act on cyclical. they will cut rates more probably. but that is not the problem. policyer of monetary with reflect to stimulus is not what it used to be. we live in a very different world. structural challenges are figure, far bigger than they used to be. yeah, monetary policy does what they can, but thinking the fed will single-handedly lift thin

the bottom line, jerome powell is saying all the right things. but from a commodity viewpoint, commodity traders have been suffering with a low-inflation and they want to see activity and been hurt by the u.s. china trade war which has been inflationary for some of these other markets. i think the push for inflation is definitely going to help commodity. >> can i get a shout out for something obscure, did you see peugeois85% of what it's used f, converters and cars which helps clear the omission air. i found that fascinating there is a shortage. we won't ignore all investments to look at stocks, it's important to point out things like that, slightly below 1800. but that was a big deal, let me just geek out about that for a moment. tell me what your thoughts are of what chairman powell does now in the meeting in december. >> you have to understand jerome, the lawn della, absolutely perfect, he was able to say we are not going to cut rates, we will not raise them, the economy is in a good spot and will go to the 2% inflation, we have your back but

kathleen: what jay powell said and what the fed said were pretty much expected. they cut the key rate, but they made it pretty clear that they now feel they have done enough. in the policy statement itself come they removed the key phrase that jay powell has been saying over and over again, the pledge to act is appropriate to sustain the economic expansion, clearly the fed feels the economy is strong enough to wait and see what happens next, perhaps indefinitely. let's listen. we see the current stance of monetary policy is likely to remain appropriate as long as incoming information about the economy remains broadly consistent with our outlook of moderate economic growth, strong labor market, and inflation near our 2% objective. >> people are saying the chance of a cut in december is down to about 5%. kind of surprising that semi people ask about what's going to make you hike the key rate, it was clear to me about how he answered the question, talking about a materially weaker u.s. economy that would lead to a rate cut, when it fact he was asked about inflation

and then there was justice powell who said unanimity is required in federal trials. you are asking us to overturn that position that unanimity is required in federal trials. >> justice ginsburg, we don't believe that that was central to his holding, or to his position and his plurality opinion, and our position would be that one justice's opinion that is not central to his -- his plurality opinion plus four dissenters does not -- is not equal to a holding. >> well, then aren't we having to address this fresh just as you really seem to want us to do? i mean, that seems to me the mission that we are in a proper place to take this up afresh. if precedent weighs for anything, what do we do with andres, what do we do with the 14 cases throughout the supreme court history that seem to treat unanimity as part of the sixth amendment? and what do we as well with hughes and with seminole tribe and a lot of cases where we've been facing similarly splintered decisions and court has come back and addressed the question fresh? without considering stari decisis and those cases. som

so it was apodaca, the fifth vote being powell's vote. and set the president for you to require a unanimity in federal trials. >> let me say something about before apodaca and did after. before apodaca the quartets squarely held in the 1940s the sixth amendment requires a unanimous verdict. what i understood the justice probably be saying and apodaca was doing that justice whited said in a in a footnote and dun mcadoo, which is reconsidered the old precedence. >> thank you, counsel. ms. mural. >> mr. chief justice, a may it please the court. we agree with petitioner this case presents two issues, whether whether the six a required unanimity, and if so whether that requirement applies to the state. the court should decide this case on the first issue because nothing in the text, structure, or history of the sixth amendment requires unanimous jury verdicts. nor has this court ever held that the framers wholesale adopted the common law. in fact, the court has expressly rejected that you with regard to the bill of rights and in williams. thos

feels like jay powell had epiphany early january. wage inflation is not the same as price inflation. the market staged a remarkable rally. this whole thing with liquidity. every wall streeter i ask about this, sloughs it off like no big deal. the number is increasing. we started 60 million, billion. the numbers keep going up. the time limit of the time of this keeps going up. it feels like it has been sloppily handled. how do we get into a position where the financial system runs out of cash? >> it has been poorly handled not just by powell but janet yellen as well. raising rates, sucking liquidity out of the system. nobody thought it would work. it was utopian solution. charles: was that a way of them taking a victory lap, saying mission accomplished we'll unwind all of it? >> it was their way of doing it. it clearly didn't work. you have a problem, global shortage of dollars. global. this is not just a u.s. problem. people who downplay liquidity will find out really quickly, once that liquidity stops, the fed gets behind the curve

taking that as a given the state does not defend justice powell's pivotal vote. that flouted president at the time and since been relegated to nothing but isolated relic of an abandoned doctrine. the state's only defense in support of the judgment below, the sixth amendment does not require unanimity at all in safe courts are in federal courts. the court has said many times of this, what the court has it is the sixth amendment right to trial by jury carries with it the essentials of common-law. the common-law authorities are uniform, explicit absolute. unanimity is an absolute requirement. and the reason they gave for that rule is they resonate as much as they did then. we were not prepared to take away somebody's liberty and as a cross-section of the community uniformly agrees to criminal punishment is appropriate. i don't think the state disputes the historical account i gave you is central to the functioning of the jury trial. the drafting suggests that they would dispense with that, and if the historical requirement is no more unanimity than the 12 person rul

jerome powell getting ready to set stage. he has very busy hour. charles, i will hand it over to you. charles: thank you, very much, all eyes on jerome powell. great to be back. markets are up. chairman powell will hold a question and answer session called, the fed listens. he is expected to address today's jobs report and this week's market volatility and a slowing world economy. trade worries will come up as well. let's bring in edward lawrence with more on powell's comments. reporter: exactly what he was saying. he already started speaking. chairman of federal reserve jay powell says the economy is in in a good place. it is the fed's job to keep it there. what he has not said in the news conference and last fed statement that the fed will do what is necessary to keep the economic expansion going. he is speaking at a fed is listening event at the headquarters in washington d.c. where they make the decision whether to cut interest rates or not. powell says the inflation is running close to or just and 2% target range. some members of the fomc that

amanda: we are waiting for federal chair jay powell, so micah, let's start with what we expect from powell today. mike: a little bit hard to know. they powell had to it is a little bit hard to know. bit hard toittle know. does he want more time to make a decision and does he need more time because the markets have decided that he is going to cut rates. if he does not say that today, if he does pushback, he could have a market reaction -- a negative market reaction that he does not want, so it is a tough job going into this. you have three point 5% unemployment with wages growing even a little bit more slowly. on the other hand, you have the lousy imn manufacturing numbers. so does the fed think they need more stimulus? saythey have to do is something that will convince the market for the fed's on-the-job even if they have not made a decision yet. shery: in the meantime, we continue to see diverging views coming out of the fomc. where do we expect powell to stand in all of this? michael: everybody is about where they were. the people who have spoken out in recent days have basically reaffir

justice powell was from virginia believed in federalism. that was a key theme of his jurisprudence that was the key one - - a key theme of my advocacy why i was excited for working for the state of ohio as the solicitor with a section five commerce clause cases. that has been interest i have had in terms of writing. it is true, that's not just justice scalia by the way he is the preacher of the beltway by the time he was on the court. i don't think he had the same sympathies so then i rejected scalia a little bit and then followed powell but the method of interpretation is much more contextual than original but that influences scalia for sure. but really it's what all of us share from this day that you come to love the court as an institution. it's hard to work there but i care so much about this place every employee that comes back to argue and they all remember your name. you always felt that they were rooting for every advocate even though one would lose but i love it as an institution and one reason i embrace contextualism and perhaps p

to steve's point about jay powell, jay powell is a lawyer jay powell is lawyerly he speaks like a lawyer. he's careful but if he says that this is a mid cycle adjustment, those words are being chosen carefully. >> i'm glad you said that. >> he also said he's data dependent. you have to pick your poison >> i think he can be both. it's one piece of data >> final thought, please >> i want to add what michael says about the lawyerly thing. in the legal system, precedent matters. how many times have powell told us he's following the model of '95 and '98 and the mid-cycle adjustment and then a pause. i think this is a key insight that michael just provided that i think the markets have missed. powell's going to do this in a way that draws on precedent. times may change but a decision making process is one that infuses press dent can remain. melissa, if a quarter point cut stands between 3,000 and something much uglier, i'm afraid the market is on much -- >> i know you want to wrap it up he's not adverse to using the balance sheet. where the balance sheet was considered tightening before, long

jay powell speaking a little later on. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> four minutes to go until the end of regular cash equity trade here in europe. the pound is trading at session lows. that's providing some respite relative to the peer group ftse 100. terms, you have 500 stocks down. 100 stocks up. of theves you an idea breadth we are seeing to the downside. volume is like the it has been across a number of sessions recently. feeling thecks pressure from the trade narrative emanating out of the u.s.. the european closes next. this is bloomberg. ♪ guy: 30 seconds of the lit end of regular trading in europe. we are pretty much uniformly down across the board. continental markets down more than the london market. the ftse 100 is being protected to a certain extent by what is happening with sterling, sterling taking a beating on a difficult meeting -- phone call between boris johnson and angela merkel. the pound has continued to slide. .5%.tse 100 down only on the continent, down .9%. the cac 40 just breaking below 1%. theerms o

jay powell says the fed will securities to avoid recent turmoil. we will be live in dublin on morning after ireland presents its no deal budget just 22 days away from the deadline. ♪ matt: good morning from berlin. , it seems that the disintegration between the u.s. and china further continues deteriorating and hurting stocks around the world. nejra: it is getting to be a bit of a complicated mess. itse is discussion about stock flows of u.s. money into as well.e travel bans it is not looking good head of trade talks. that is what markets took away even as we got comments from jay powell. matt: exactly. i think they might be separate issues to some extent. stocks fromat the the hot mess, there were declines of 1% across the board in europe. take a look at what we see in the msci asia-pacific right now. down .6%. s&p futures are currently up right now. remember, it is really going in the futures trade and fairly thin in asia. here.e nymex crude we are so low here. maybe a second-degree relation in that the trade issues cause slowing global growth

and i quote chairman powell: in no sense is this qe. okay. i'm telling you, the markets saw that that as qe when he first announced it, but we're till down about a 157 points. but the question is did he revive the markets when he declared during the speech that the fed is contemplating regrowing the balance sheet by purchasing treasury bills? well, the markets -- which have been likened to a big voting machine -- voted almost immediately that, yeah, it sure looks and sounds like qe. and almost immediately we had gone from a triple-digit loss to a double-digit loss on the dow. right now we are up off the floor. we had been down more than 300 points earlier today and bathed in red for the open on that tit for tat posturing on the u.s./china trade war as both sides meet for the second straight day. but again, now that we're down just about a 156 points on the dow, you can see that the markets are absorbing what jay powell said as an indication that he may begin to reflate the balance sheet which is something that they did during the financial cr

powell's comments today, president trump said is a now the fed finally has my back. now i can ratchet up trade tension talks. without question i'm a conspiracy theorist it makes sense. wall it nag you want, that's exactly what it is quantitative easing. because this time last year we were on autopilot for reduction and now on autopilot the other way with the s&p 500 effectively at all-time highs. i think it's crazy the reason the market soltd off in my opinion was the rhetoric we talked about president trump. the fed might have your back but, again i'll say again, this started in march of 2018 it's now october i don't think we're any closer today than we were 18 months ago. >> so eamon said something interesting about the trade talks later this woke. he said anything could happen. i think that's unically anything could happen i think it's likely not a lot happens. >> isn't that something. >> well, zblot i think that falls under anything back to the boiling frogs. >> my point -- my point very simply is give the rhetoric early this week and over the weekend the likelih

. >> great well, chair powell thank you very much. we really appreciate it. >> thank you [ applause ] >>> good afternoon welcome to the "closing bell," everyone chair powell just finishing up, as you heard let's break down the key headlines. the fed will begin asset purchases again, though chair powell saying, quote, this is not qe in no sense at all. he said it was directed at solving recent technical issues related to the repo market rather than materially affecting the stance of monetary policy. he said they will act as appropriate to support continued growth, a strong jobs market, inflation moving back to our symmetric 2% objective and the result of all of this has been a steepening of the yield curve. earlier today, it had been flattening we now see on the day, the ten-year and 30-year yields higher the rest of the yield curve slightly lower and that supported equity markets, as well, which came off of their lows. the low of the session was down over 300 points on the dow we got up to 60 points before the market took a turn south

powell did appear mostly nurmt out the late october meeting. markets took the comments as affirming expectations for another rate cut. jp morga writing in a commentary after the speech if the fed ldership wanted to pushback op market expectations of a an ease later in the month the powell would have csenn languages wochbt have called out downside risk. the central bank will begin in his increasing the size of the balance sheet reversesinghe policy last year where theyy reduce the sbal sheet. >> growth of the about a sheet for reserve management purposes shut shouldn't be cuffed large scale purchase preps after the deployed financial crisis. neither the repeat textle issues more treasury bills we are contemplating to resolve should materially alter monetary policy. >> informs a major opportunity for powell to change market expectations for the late october meeting. and he seems to have chose. not to do so it looks like another 25 basis points rate could you tell is on the way it right around halloween. for nightly business report, steve liesman.

i feel like it was mario draghi, but in powell's clothes. chair powell: if you really want the u.s. economy to be all it can be and raise the potential growth rate in the united states , you need proper monetary policy come about really it is fiscal policy that supports inclusive growth. alix: is that it? is that the answer? julia: well, it's very terrifying when, around the world, we are talking about greater need for fiscal policy, and around the world we are seeing more dysfunction in fiscal policy. it is not a good place to have to rely on fiscal policy. we don't have fiscal policy forthcoming anytime soon to rescue this process slowdown. not from the u.s., not from china, not from europe, which has probably the most fiscal space. there's less political will to enacted anytime soon. mark: how much of his comment you think is trying to deflect away from the fed and more toward something else? julia: well, he's not wrong. it is true that monetary poly is limited. what he can do with a few rate cuts, and that is all they have left, isn't a lot. so if you do need some kind of impuls

michael: unless he specifically iss about it, powell -- he specifically asked about it, powell will probably avoid it. they know that by keeping interest rates higher and growing faster, the economy tends to push the dollar up. they are not going to cut rates just to weaken the dollar in order to help donald trump. the fed would like to avoid a conversation about that. in general, powell's problem is he doesn't really want to have to move until the last minute because he wants to see what happens with the trade talks, but wall street has kind of price did in. if he doesn't push back today, and it would be difficult to push back, then we are going to move forward with the markets basically saying a rate cut is a done deal for october 30. the fed won't have any kind of optionality. powell has a tough road to hoe here here, a narrow lane to walk on, even if he doesn't talk about the dollar. alix: thanks very much, michael mckee, shawn donnan, and enda curran. just to recap what we've learned, we've heard yesterday that the commerce department put a ban on eight tech companies for human rights v

powell re-grasp? nejra: officials have cut basis point pet -- have cut rates for the third consecutive time. the pausealso hit button unless the outlook changes materially. the fomc promised to monitor data. theme powell justified central banks position in a news conference following the rate decision. >> the policy adjustments we have made since last year are providing and will continue to provide meaningful support to the economy. we believe monetary policy is in a good place. that was a key mission, acting as appropriate to sustain expansion. the markets don't seem convinced the fed is going to be on board. are you? >> we have been above the market in general, how we see the u.s. economy anyway. when you look at the rate cut, when you compare that, where the fundamentals are, where the inflation rate is, we think there is a decent chance the fed is going to be on hold for quite some time, unless we take a substantial hit. you think they are going to be on pause for a substantial period of time. the

that was part of the insight of powell, and powell's looking to the text but looking to more than that, looking to the history of the text and to understand the intent of the framers. and that two-thirds majority requirement is very important in the opinion of the framers for the very reason that this was to be a very considerable check by the united states senate on the house of representatives that might get carried away. >> so, in your view, that might be justiciable? >> yes. >> so, is the claim before us today -- should we treat it as nonjusticiable, or just committed by the text to the discretion of the senate? >> the former because of the latter, that the text itself, when we also contemplate the structure of the constitution and the purpose of impeachment in our system of separated powers, that it does satisfy, it seems to us, at a minimum two of the criteria laid down by this court in baker against carr, a textual commitment to the senate. why do we say that? the reason we say that is because the grant of the sole power to try in our judgment carries with it the power to determ

jay powell speaking today. it will be one of the last times we hear from him before the next fed meeting later this month >> h e is spe-- he is speaking. he will say the fed will continue to buy new reserves they said it was like to happen but powell saying it will happen says they are contemplating buying treasury bills. he says do not confuse what's going on with the fed balance sheet as quantitative easing it should not have a market efbt on monetary policy, per se he says the fed will act as appropriate. he says the fed is data depende dependent. his policy is never on a pre-set course there are risks from weak global growth, from trade and from brexit as well recent job gains could be revised lower. even then it won't be a problem. >> you stay here >> never seen far from relevance drawing our attention after recent events in the persian gulf technological advancements are rapidly changing our answer. with tera bytes competing with truckloads of goods, one of the best ways to measure output and productivity

jay powell did not make it look like a slamdunk. he was speaking to the annual meeting for business economics in denver, colorado. ,t was a big picture speech talking about measuring tightness in labor markets. at the very end, he talked about what data dependence means now. he started talking about the u.s. economy in positive terms. job gains, strong labor market, rising wages. he went on to say, it is global risks that are rising, or risks rising from global development. you can thank trade, brexit, and more. it seems clear the door is open to the october cut, although some people think maybe depending on the consensus from the fomc there is a chance they won't. listen to jay powell, make up your own mind. >> policy is not on a cruise set course. the next meeting is several weeks away and we will be carefully monitoring information. we will be data-dependent, assessing the outlook and risks on a meeting by meeting basis. we will act as appropriate. kathleen: jay powell also said he wants to do whatever it takes to sustain economi

venture jay powell says the fed is close to balance sheet expansion -- fed chair jay powell says the fed is close to balance sheet expansion, but says it is not qe. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak" on this wednesday, october 9. in the market, all about trade. some optimism because i'm a little skeptical about what that all means. equity futures up by 0.8%. if we see a partial deal, will that be good enough for the market? euro-dollar up by 0.2%. it is a mixed dollar story. you had greeks being able to sell bonds for the first time a negative yields, so there is still search for demand in that negative yield world. time now for global exchange. we bring you today's market moving news from all around the world. current --is in the is in the current -- is enda ant, anna edwards, and kevin cirilli. reportedly, china is still open to a partial trade deal with the u.s. as long as no more tariffs are imposed. enda currannt -- joins me from hong kong. enda: the fact that the hong kong delegation is still heading to washington speaks to the idea that china is in the market for some kind of agr

what jay powell said is right. the risk of recession is quite low. ,he risk of moderate growth that is quite high. it could be on hold for significant time. assetsow do you see risk and the situation, bob? it looks like the fed saying we are on hold the next move is going to be down. it is already a pretty accommodative environment in the u.s. and the economy doesn't look that bad. bob: the first point to make is i agree with you, the economy doesn't look bad. if you break down the components of the economy, can is holding up well. retail sales is holding up. the two negative areas of the economy have been export growth and investment spending. if we do get slow continued progress on the u.s.-china trade dispute and the first phase should be signed in november, although the location of the signing -- it is not going to be chile. it is going to be somewhere. there may be some pent up demand on the export side. we could see some improvement there. i stick to my view that at least for the next six to 12 months, trend growth in america is going to be clo

powell said the economic data would have to ce ineaker than the fed expects? powell also provided positive news to markets byuggesting the fed is far from potentially hiking interest rates. >> i think w n wouldd to see a really significant move up in before we wouldonsider raising rates to address inflation concerns. >> there were t two dissent the same by fed bank presidents who didn't want to cut rates. but psumably aere three r cuts and new a fed on hold, the ommittee might be less divided no for nightly business report, steve liesman, washsgton. >>> liet's turn to brian nick for more analysis on the fed and imarket, chiefestment strategist a at new vine. thanks foreing here. nks for having me, sue. >>> what did you make of what the fed did and what the chief said today. >> i think what he said was much chlorke clearer than the statement. we had to wait f about a half hour to becomomcrystal clear that the fed intends for this to be theast rateut for the moment and they're moving into december with more optimism that some of the polic risks that had beene bo

, and i like jay powell. i think he has an impossible job. but he definitely protested a bit too much this is not qe, in no sense qe i tdon't know, a rose by any other name would still smell as sweet. my problem with qe wasn't the stimulative effect it was the distortion effect. we know we have invert at 3-month bills. why don't you weigh in >> chairman powell talked about two things yesterday one is not qe and one is he talked about letting the balance sheet grow naturally with currency in circulation that's pretty normal for a central bank he also talked about recalibrating the level of reserves a little bit higher estimates are probably $250 billion higher, and that is undoing part of the qt so that is qe, just qe on a small scale. it just shows to me that a lot of the reserves in the system have been frozen by regulation and aren't really there and so they were not really on top of the level that they needed under their current system to keep control of overnight rates >> listen, i understand from a marke

we are going to hear from powell later today. what is driving this market board? >> trade at the moment. we still have to see today with the minutes, how much division there is on the fed. everyone is expect in the fed to cut by 25 basis points in october. we could see a contentious fomc which takes that off the table. another risk for the markets this afternoon, no one is expecting it. behindeems to be enough a 25 basis point cut even from fed officials who are pushing back a little bit. maybe that is not the biggest risk. romaine: our thanks. tonight, thehead second part of the david rubenstein conversation with supreme court associate justice ruth bader ginsburg. here is a preview. >> when president clinton became president, you were obviously somebody being considered and president clinton said women don't want her. how could that have been the case when you were the leading lawyer in gender discrimination? [indiscernible] >> i had a comment -- written a 100%nt and it was not supporting the decision. was, the texas law was the most extreme in the nation. ♪ r

marija: it is impossible to put myself in jay powell's issues -- powell's shoes. i think it is very important for him to stress, to leave optionality on the table. it would be unwise to kind of m ail your card. he has been telling us for a long time that the u.s. economy is slowing but not in a terrible state. it is doing ok. it is not going into recession by any means. it is slowing. what's very challenging and on predictable is trade policy -- unpredictable is trade policy. when the first insurance rate cut came about, they were talking about, we don't know what will happen with this trade deal. the longer we don't have a deal, the bigger drag to underlying economic growth. it makes sense for them to do some insurance cutting. on till and unless, and i expect we have someunless clarity, it is very difficult to say policy should be this way or that way. they need to leave themselves a lot of optionality and do meeting by meeting assessments of the economy. i think it is absolutely right. nejra: if jerome powell were to say that beyond october, we are going to be

monetary policy says jay powell is in a good place and the b.o.j. tweerked the guidance to allow for swift easing. eye on the prize. the offshore yuan brushes off poor chinese manufacturing data. and market attention firmly fixates on positive trade signals. top negotiators set to -- for tomorrow. and megamerger, fiat chrysler and p.s.a. confirm that they will combine. the automakers will own 50% of the equity each of their shareholders get a 5.5 billion euro special dividend. nejra: welcome to barry europe. just breaking in the past few minutes a deal that could see an auto powerhouse to rival volkswagen. we heard that fiat chrysler and p.s.a. group have planned to combine. fiat shareholders will get a 5.5 billion euro special dividend in the p.s.a. deal. and we've got yet more details coming through as we speak, manus. manus: absolutely. this is creating the division in many ways, would have probably been proud of. this comes down to the numbers stack together? the hard numbers. p.s.a. and fiat chrysler, 3.7 billion euros worth of run rate synergi

maybe it showed powell is getting better communicating what he wants to do. maybe wall street is getting better without all the knee-jerk instant whining and selling. >> two things, powell got it exactly right yesterday. very good performance. i think wall street is starting to understand the man, what is between his ears, how he is approaching the job. what wall street needs to know how the fed will make decisions. powell has made that clear. we would know what triggers a rate increase or rate reduction. but within that is a very wideband. not much will happen between now and end of the year, or likely early next year. charles: is your takeaway we should buckle up for low rates for a very long period of time? >> i think so but not forever. you know, in europe they're starting to become disenamored because those negative interest rates really harm banks. here they don't do us a lot of good. there is a lot of excessive lending among b-rated companies, just above investment grade and c-rated companies, the junk bonds. i think we're probably going to out grow th

i think powell will want to give that a little time to fester right there. >> yeah. he's going to have to watch his language carefully, steve. don't you think? >> yeah. >> he's stumbled in the past in the way he articulated where we were in terms of what the fed was doing. got to be careful today. >> right, right. i think that's right i think there is a difference here, scott. other times i think powell has tried to carve out flexibility when the market wasn't priced into the market. if you look at possibilities today, we're at 97% for a rate cut today. that falls down to 26% or 27% for december, and there isn't really a rate cut on the other side of the 50% probability until march, until some time into next year so powell may well have the flexibility to give this message because it's priced into the market here. the market is not in disagreement it is those other times that powell has tried to do that. he's had the market against him and he got that violent reaction from the market and he's had to walk it back. >> we're waiting and we're watching the stocks aren't

and it turned out that he had clerked for justice powell and justice powell had interviewed me. don't get stuck in doing the right thing to position myself and something five years from now. it does not work that way. >> our panel is about the clerkship experiences, we should probably talk about them. just give us a sense of what it was like to clerk for your justice, what you did, and what the day-to-day life of being a supreme court clerk was like. john: i had the office closest to justice kennedy, which meant that he used me as the administrative person. he used me for all sorts of default rings. -- defaulting's. once i got a call from him when he was on the road, and he was in asheville and he said, john i need a good barbecue place. so this was before the internet. i found him a place and it was located next to the hospital. the opinion work and getting them ready for the arguments, so there is merit work, and then there is the emergency stuff like death penalties and things like that. and then the bullet that i dodged, speeches, i never had to write a speech. i feel like k

a ton of fed speak for you, including from chair jay powell. we get pmi that of china followed by another appearance from chairman powell on tuesday. the fed releasing minutes from its september fomc meeting and on thursday, the main event. u.s.-china trade talks resuming in washington. a final word from everyone, oksana are in off, we support -- aranov, lisa hornsby, and gershon distenfeld still with us. gershon: i think the confidence that we have a coherent policy, that it cannot just change on a dime is there. especially in politics, with the impeachment talks and who is going to be the president, what is going to happen in the election in 2020 is going to weigh on the uncertainty and does not bode well for people making long-term decisions. oksana: i do not expect anything at all. it will be a continuation of the one step forward, two steps back. there is no incentive on the part of the chinese to do anything more here. focus on the economic data and that is what will drive the markets. jonathan: lisa hornby, your take? lisa: i wish i coul

and coming up in fewer than 30 minutes we're going to be the fed chair powell in washington, d.c. coming up right now, we're sticking with the september jobs slowdown. u.s. especially feeling the pain, the permian basin where everything from getting hit.ls are we'll head to houston next for that story. this is bloomberg. tory. this is bloomberg. >> this is "bloomberg markets," vonnie quinn in new york. >> and i'm amanda lang in new york. signs of a shale patch deceleration are evident in the the radio.om ads on we have with us david, so david obviously, this is a big change the kind of double-digit increase in things we were seeing years ago. what's happening for shale? >> it's really shocking to see it in all places the permian basin. this was the growth engine for the u.s. oil industry. this was really the first to the global oil industry out of the slump that started in all these oiluse explorers discovered that you could get oil out of the permian basin a lot cheaper because pancaked layers of oil-bearing rock and you go right and in get your oil out goingheaper than offshore,

i think powell was very effective in communicating his message. i think it was probably his best orss conference in three four meetings. even though he was pressed say the federal reserve will be on hold or in easing mode, it is very apparent that the fed is going to be data-dependent. i think this will introduce an element of higher volatility into the markets because we will be paying better attention to every day release that hits the wires. vonnie: we saw the reversal in the bond market, so obviously it was an expectation that something was happening. when do we get another rate cut? danielle: that's a very good question, and i think it is going to truly depend on whether or not we have a third consecutive month of contracting new orders in ism. anyink markets will fade weakness in tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls report because of the general motors strike. that being said, we will pay closer attention to weekly mortgage applications, initial jobless claims. anything can sway market pricing for the next cut, and that is the box that jerome powell

will jay powell signal a stop, pause, or continuation of rate cuts? the bank of canada maintaining its target overnight interest rate at 1.75%. canada hasoz says not been immune to the effects of a global slowdown. we will hear from him next. facebook and apple on deck. the latest tech giants reporting quarterly earnings today after the bell. we will find out how much revenue the latest iphone lineup is bringing in. let's get a quick check on these major averages. right now, really deciding to when it comes to major market moves ahead of that fed interest-rate decision. under the hood is a pretty defensive tilt with utilities, real estate, consumer staples. cyclical stocks like energy and financials are on the back foot. the real fireworks could be in about half an hour's time. away from all of this, i have been known, instead of wearing some nice shoes, wearing some nice uggs, but i have never gotten into some crocs, but i'm apparently one of the few. these are their shares up today 15%. this is actually close to an 11-year high for what we can descr

powell sees the fed growing the balance sheet again. they suggest this is not a return to crisis era stimulus. and credit suisse considers a return to u.s. wealth management as the ceo seeks to boost growth and private banking. a warm welcome. you down to the start of equity trading at just less than half an hour. we are live in dublin once again as issues surrounding the irish continue to dominate the brexit america -- narrative. we have heard from ireland how they see it difficult to achieve any kind of deal. that's why we are here, focusing in on the broader story. is not pricing in anything happening at the end of --ober looking for a timber looking for other market moves to take place. matt: interestingly, we don't see 10-year gilts under that pressure. there is very little change from the closed yesterday. they did not drop on jerome powell. this is where the yield is right now. they said the fed it will go market tothe treasury buy bonds as money market need to open an outlet for the maturing mortgage debt. would be a huge a buye

i sent a letter in, and what i did not know, i had interviewed with powell, and powell had sent a note saying if i could've hired a fifth clerk i would've hired this guy. i got that job through interviewing with powell. i just want to say that you cannot prepare for these interviews. i thought that there would be a substantive component and justice powell really wanted to talk about nothing other than who i was, where i grew up, but my parents had done and what their parents had done. it was very personal. i was not prepared for that. there, i wouldt just say justice stewart sent a note around saying this guy is available because i only have halftime work, at which point chief justice burger let me do memos for him. two months with powell, stevens, and o'connor, and then brendan took me up as a full-time clerk with dutch is a full-time clerk. at the end of two months with stevens, he died could you stay with me full-time. i i went to brandon and said would be looking for these others. and this said -- and they said it does not matter. there is no confidentiality here. so that is what i

powell under president george w. bush, albright under bill clinton. i was invited to interview on a stage in front of a group of citizens, members of the military and first responders. let's begin with general powell talking about all the tu multisurrounding the whistleblower and the phone call around the president of the united states and ukraine. >> we have this situation in washington with the preliminary investigation being done by the house of representatives under mrs. pelosi, and you just got to ask yourself, where does this all go? well, it's going to go the constitutional way. she is following the constitution and the law, and she's created an organization within the house of representatives to look into these things. and that's what we ought to do. but it's hard to look into it when the other side in the white house is cursing out everybody. calling a member of congress a traitor. calling a guy who wrote this that he's something wrong with him. he didn't write it. he had a lawyer write it for him. or he's a spy. no, he's not a spy. he's an i

we managed to shrug that office chile cancels its meeting, up 3/10 of a percent thaxter jay powell. scarlet: the s&p 500 making a new gain with a gain of 3/10 of 1%. the russell 2000 is lagging, even as everyone looks at value 2000 value russell stocks only up by one third of 1%. let's check in with our reporters are start with abigail. abigail: underperformance, major averages at the dow and s&p 500 relative to dow transports, look at that. the dow and s&p 500 index recovering after the dow presser, dow transports however, not so much, lows down 2% at that point on pace for worst daily performance since august, has to do with weakness with c8 robinson, writer, logistics companies. when we put it into the context of the year to date chart, they are having a good year. they have0 index, traded in a directionally correlated manner for the most part. now a bit of a divergence. the last one did not prove to be bearish for the s&p 500, but it very much looks like we could see dow transports go back down into that range. it will be interesting to see if there is any connection with the s&

coming up in the next week, a ton of fedspeak for you, including from chair jay powell. through to monday, we get pmi data from china followed by another appearance from chairman powell on tuesday. on wednesday the fed releasing minutes from its september fomc meeting, and on thursday, it is the main event. u.s.-china trade talks resuming in washington. a final word from everyone, oksana aranov, lisa hornsby, and gershon distenfeld still with us. gershon, what are you looking for next week in the trade talks? gershon: i would rather they not go well, but we learned from manufacturing before, the confidence that we have a coherent policy, that it cannot just change on a dime is there. not to mention, don't want to talk politics here, but with the impeachment talks and who is going to be the president, what is going to happen in the election in 2020 is going to weigh on the uncertainty and it does not bode well for people making long-term decisions. oksana: not expecting much of anything at all. it will be a continuation of the current one step forward, two steps back. the

what will jay powell signal about what happens next? what he seemed to signal is, we are going to wait and see. the policy statement drop the pledge to act as appropriate to sustain the economic expansion. here's what jay elaborated on when he talked at the press conference. >> we see the current stance of monetary policy as unlikely to remain appropriate as long as incoming information about the economy remains probably consistent with their outlook. moderate economic growth, strongly the market, and inflation near are symmetric to present objective. >> he also said monetary policy is in a good place to keep the economy growing. our bloomberg ego fed team in washington is writing a great story tonight. they speculate, is he saying the fed has finally achieved a soft landing? a rateline, the odds of cut in december are down 21 in five. we will be watching very closely to see what the fed does next. shery: thank you so much for that. our global economics and policy editor. let's take a look at our markets reacting to the fed. mliv editor

underway, and we heard from powell today. we have heard from the fed. they will extend these short term purchases for a while. some questions about whether this is key -- whether this is q.e. or not, but at the end of the day, this is support that clearly seems to be needed based on what we have had. >> yes, and i think it was surprising to markets that we heard from jerome powell in advance of the rate decision in october, because he even said whether they are going to cut rates or leave them steady, there are several weeks where we will be data-dependent, but he said, "we are doing this, be bypared, and it is not q.e., the way, and everything. will be fine. " itaine: i think we can run here, him talking about the balance sheet. chairman powell: the growth of our balance sheets should in no as what wesame deployed after the financial crisis. neither are the recent technical issues or the purchase of treasury bills we are contemplating to resolve them. they should not cheerily alter monetary policy. romaine: i just wanted to

chair powell, setting aside expectations for today's rate cut, obviously 97% sort of expected this would happen today, can you tell us more about the rationale behind moving at this particular meeting as opposed to waiting six weeks and cutting in december and if there was any discussion about that around the table? thanks. >> yeah. i think this seems to be the right movement you can see we had our usual range of prospects, range of views but in the end we had a strong vote in this action i strongly believe it's the right action i strongly believe that the alcohols we've taken over the course of this year have been the right things for this economy and will continue to support growth and will do so in the future. >> thank you, greg raub from market watch chairman powell it seems the differences all across the country, that different regions are reacting differently to the china trade and some regions are much weaker than others. there's this urban versus rural divide, the coast versus the middle of the country. how does that factor into your decisions? >> you know, with monetary policy i

what did powell say? stephanie: one of the reasons he was surprisingly lucid on the subject of the balance sheet, they want to make clear they think of this in a different way from quantitative easing. this is a response to what happened in the repo market, and we are clear that they will at least be allowing some expansion of the balance sheet in line with natural growth, and remain open to the idea of having a step up beyond that. he was basically saying we need to think about increasing the balance sheet. tom: you read it on a global basis. where on duration or maturity do we tip from a short-term balance sheet dynamic out to a more qe dynamic? five, seven, or 20 years out? stephanie: it is a good question. it feels like they have less leveraged at the five or 10 year. the emphasis on these purchases on the expansion will be on the t-bill, another way they are trying to distinguish this from the quantitative easing which you would expect to have a longer duration. it is a good question, are we reaching