so major hickey, i don't know what we would have done without you. colonel marksano came to our side and helped us understand what was happening in the media and how news cycles work and just gave us an understanding of what to do. you don't know what to do. you are overwhelmed. so thank you. the idaho national guard, the facilities that we had to travel to for secure briefings and the fact that you were there and so graciously willing to help, being led by the govern at the top and general sayler. they are here right. general goodell, thanks, guys. we felt like we were a family. and we didn't have to travel to washington every time we needed a briefing because we could come here. govern bush otter, we knew they were there and we knew if we needed anything they would continue to be there as unwavering support. now, i want to talk about the future, starting right now. so, the recovery and reintegration of bowe bergdahl is a work in progress. i want to really convey that because it is isn't over for us. in many ways, it's just beginning for jani and i

retired major general hickey. thank you very much. >> thank you. >> brazil hosts the world cup in less than a month. civil police in several states are on strike and some 5,000 police officers are expected to march on the presidential paula in brasilia. gabriel alazondo is there and files this report. >> reporter: civil police in eight of brazil's 26 states are on strike, and they're saying they want better salaries. they want better working conditions. more importantly they want more resources to help stop crime. they are the crime scene investigators. they say this strike 24 hours. but beyond this, in the city of sao paulo, the biggest city in south america, where the first match will be played, they're in day two of the strike of bus drivers there. it has left hundreds of commuters scrambling to find a way to get home. the federal government is watching that one very closely. because remember it was the bus fare increase in sao paulo last june that started the nationwide protest. >> an egyptian court has convic

joining me from washington now major hickey. what is your reaction to the news of secretary shinseki's resignation today. i'm. >> well, i'm not surprised. i'm saddened by it because i believe general shinseki should have been there to fix these problems. he is a man of honor and he would see that they were fix: just because he is a man of honor that's why he offered his resignation, because he takes responsibility. >> do you believe other veteran groups will share your sentiment regarding you his resignation? >> i think they're split down the middle. some have said, yay, i'm glad he's gone. others have said, i think he wasn't the problem. it was the bureaucrats underneath him. and it was withheld from him. he's told--he was sold a bill of goods and thinks things are going well. >> that being said do you think this resignation will have a positive or negative impact on the v.a. system? >> well, time will tell. initially will it have a negative affect. now he's gone the focus will go away media-wise from the v.a. some people will

we have heard all this before, so. >> retired major stuart hickey, national director of american veterans, an advocacy group. thanks for joining us. >>> in power politics, 13 months since the voting in the presidential primaries, and former president bush is talking about jed bush's campaign. he spoke about his brother in an interview an cbs news and provided the odds that jeb will run. >> reporter: you think he do it? >> i think it's 50/50. he and i are close. on the other hand he's not here knocking on my door agonising about the decision. he knows exactly the ramifications an family, for example. he has seen his dad and brother go through the presidency. i would give it a toss up. i know this about jeb, he is not afraid to succeed. in other words, i think i know he knows he can do the job, and nor is he afraid it fail. >> bush is promoting "41", his father. both waged wars against iraq's saddam hussein. >> when you say something as president, you better mean it, words mean something. he was very clear at times during his presidency, and i thought i was pretty clear at times during my p

we are joined by jack hickey, who is a trial attorney, specializing in maritime law. you were representing, of the costa concordia. >> there are a lot of parallels between the concordia and the sewol. the scenario plays out quite similarly, unfortunately. two large passenger vessels leaving at night, sailing at night, both of which veer from their accepted route. and something happens. something disastrous happens. and in the case of the rocks. in the case of the sewol it made a sharp turn and there was probably something in the stow, that is, the cargo on board, shifted and caused an instability, and a list. and in both ships they have a severe list. then, and incredibly, miscommunication. in the sewol you have a captain who is delaying communication, and then according to the captain, there is a wraik i -- break in the communication and he does not try to breach that by other means. and then of course, the biggest comparison here is the fact that both captains got off the vessel before the safety of the passengers was secured. so that's a very distinct parallel. >>

. >> stewart hickey, executive director of vets, and a former u.s. marine. we're going to continue our conversation about the resignation of eric shinseki, the former secretary of veterans affairs. we're going to take a break, and we'll be right back. >> we're following breaking news, and eric shinseki, the embattled secretary of veterans affairs offering his resignation this morning, and that resignation being escaped by the president. he was the secretary of veterans affair, a -- you see him apologizing to disabled veterans who he met with this morning, homeless vets. and the president said that those who received the bonuses who were a thorn of contention will be forced to give them back. and eric shinseki told the president that he thought his continued presence on the job would be a distraction, and sloan gibson, the acting va secretary, taking shinseki's place. mike viqueira at the white house, will this satisfy the critics or just stoke the fires? >> reporter: well, i think for the timing, the critics will be mollified. and shinseki, it's not often th

we called for secretary and secretary hickey and petzel to resign. it's because of a long standing systematic leadership failure that we have seen. originally we were big fans and we went to bat for the secretary when a "time" magazine article asked him to resign. we thought he had a tough job, we acknowledged that and felt he had the tools and resources. over the past year we saw systematic failures, like with the secret list, construction problems. e saw delays in care, dirty equipment used. >> on the other hand other veterans organizations call for him to stay, arguing we should wait until the investigations are over, and back logs were worse when he took the job five years ago. >> some of the other organizations are starting to think that. phoenix was not the reason we called for secretary shinseki's resignation, it was a final straw in a list of systematic leadership failures. strong leadership will turn it around and we believe in the va. the american legion was a strong supporter of the veterans administration. 50 years later we advocated hard

report is stuart hickey, a retired major with the u.s. marine corps. thanks for being with us. do you think the v.a. health care system is still the best place to care for our nation's veterans. >> yes, i do. the v.a. system is the largest health care system in the country, and i think overall veterans are satisfied with their care when they can get in and get the care. the problem is access to get in to be seen bay doctor. >> let's talk about that. this report released by the inspector general states that the average wait time at the phoenix facility was 115 days while the hospital records claim the wait was 24 days on average. this seems to just confirm what whistle blowers have said, but some say now that this two week wait time was an unrealistic goal to set, that led administrators to gaining the system to all the way bonuses. how do you think this can be fixed? >> wal amvets have quite a few solutions to cure the problem, the immediate problem of getting veterans in to be seen. one of those solutions can be the panel or the ratio of doctor to patients that the v.a. uses.

. >> retired general allison hickey is the undersecretary of v.a. benefits, she testified the v.a. is making a significant dent in the backlog, but these employees do not believe it, calling the new numbers manipulated. >> from what you're telling me here today, changing the date of a claim is common practice to reduce the backlog. it's absolutely unbelievable to me. >> i hear you loud and clear. i know that you don't trust what we're saying, so i went for the second time to another third party to ask for an independent verification of the way in which we assess our quality. >> the v.a. admitted it reached a tipping point in march, 2013 with a backlog of 611,000 cases. this month, that number is at 274,000, decreasing the backlog by 55%. the general vowed to eliminate it altogether by 2015. >> i want every veteran in this country and all of you to believe us when we say we're making good decisions. >> now another issue the hearing touched on, overspending. a claim specialist testified that every week for two straight years, she found duplicate claims, meaning the same claim was pai

paul hickey, my boss, might have. >> what is the effect? >> there was concern earlier this week, dating back a month now, that the new shares would price of the top end of the range, eating into overall returns. that might have been slightly overblown, but we have seen, we saw monday prior to the fomc and thegot on wednesday piece in the "wall street i -- journal" on tuesday, some internet type names have really underperformed. >> what does that tell you? >> we think a lot of people who will have to buy into alibaba, a can't-miss trade in people's minds, they had to clear the decks. >> firms which is t. rowe price, as fidelity,s well examples, these are companies, financial brokerages and banks that said they want at least $1 billion worth fo -- of alibaba stock. le we have heard people, peop with $1 billion books wanting $300 million worth. >> someone on the telephone said that? >> not on the telephone, but we have gotten that. i don't know if that is true across the entire book. we're not involved in the process, but there is a lot of dem

fact, paul hickey decided he would crunch some numbers. he looked at the bloomberg ipo index. he compared where we are right now, all right? to jail area 2013 through to today. this is the same time around the 99 and 2000. by this measure, there is no bubble whatsoever. in the past six months we have seen an increase of over 400% action 2000. at least i this measure it does not look like we have a bubble. ipocould even argue that may even appear to be sort of a sweet spot. this one here was created by renaissance capital. a you can see, on year-to-year basis, the s&p 500 was beaten every day this year. >> thank you so much, adam. we will have more in 30 minutes. ♪ >> live from pier three in san francisco, welcome to bloomberg "west." i am emily chang. a few stories we're following, amazon holding an event in new york city tomorrow, making -- making a major announcement about video. joining us to discuss the future of online media. first,

piece by fredreat hickey last month and he talked about all the places we see inflation that are not measured by the commerce department. cited cable tve and how much those fees have risen. is that something that has resonated with lawmakers? we are not hearing a lot of specific opposition from lawmakers or specific concerns when it comes to this deal. we hear some very broad statements of concern about the general landscape of these megamergers specific to telecommunications. it does not really have to do with pay-tv or content providers as much. we hear more questions about rural broadband, access for rural areas, unions and what this means for workers, those sorts of things. does not seem there is a lot of direct opposition to this deal as much as there is general concern about this year of megamergers we are in. >> it sounds like they are having this hearing in 1982. >> it's worth mentioning we have another hearing coming up on the senate side at 2:30 p.m. eastern and we will year from senator al franken who is a big proponent for the comcast time warner deal. we may hear more fr

. >> full disclosure, i don't have the do hickey. i thought all along this was in the ignition -- >> the insurrection of the key in the ignition and whether it could be knocked out as you were driving. >> we will check in with jeff green to talk a little bit more about this, because there are a lot of question marks coming up. -- ukrainee parliament calls on the united nations to immediately consider the situation and crimea. the referendum on whether crimea should join russia is set on sunday. there are questions on whether the vote is legitimate or not. the president warned russia that annexing crimea will be expensive. >> ice ukraine fatigue. i look at the newspapers and it is there but it is not there. a lot of other news, in new york, the explosion we had yesterday. but we go into a huge three or four days here where there is serious military movement, whether in crimea -- concert.about the ukraine fatigue. what is this is just the tip of the iceberg? what if this is a whole new moment in u.s.-russian relations? guest from the e

let's bring in paul hickey. why? >> well, i mean, you hear when oil goes up that it's bad for the market. now year hearing it when it goes down. the bottom line is falling oil is only bad for people who are selling oil. the rest of the economy it's an input in every other sector of the economy and it's a good thing, and if you look just translating that to the stock market historically, falling oil prices have been good for every single sector except energy. every sector during bear markets in oil has averaged a gain expect energy and when oil is in a bear market, the s&p 500 historically has only been in correction mode 21% of the time. so 81% of the time the market is rallying when oil is falling. >> four sectors that perform the best are -- >> so the thing is oil has come down a lot. we're already in a bear market. this is well-known. it's the second longest in the last 30 years. there's been only four other bear markets that have lasted six months or longer in oil so what we did is look at sectors that perform at

paul hickey, co-founder of bespoke investment group. great to have you with us. >> good to be here. >> what normally happens? you are taking a look at the period post qe, in the sort of new world we are living in this terms of being an investor. what happens typically after a fed decision? >> this is short term. since the taper last december, tend to see, positive returns in the market following the rate decision on that day in the week following investors go home, sleep on it for a while, they know, the tapering, the fed is becoming less loose and raise rate, tend to see selloff and reversal of those gains in the days ahead you tend to see some short-term weakness here and also confusion on the part of investors. saying we shouldn't focus a certain number on considerable period. she is the one that said it was six months. investo investors confused and rightly so. looking it at the sectors underperformed short term, consumer discretionary, transport, industrials, all under er form the market, negative more than half the time since thos

let's bring in bespoke's co-founder, paul hickey. good to see you. >> good to be here. >> that sounds crazy. tell us what happens with apple a week, month out -- >> in the short term, apple stock is typically weak. it averages a decline of about 0.5%. one week later, almost 2% a month later. but tech underperforms the s&p 500 to a lesser degree. and the s&p 500 isn't exactly strong. for all three, apple, the tech sector and the s&p 500, you've only seen positive returns twice in the month after these unveils, product unveils. three months later, you start to see a recovery. one interesting thing to keep in mind is part of this is seasonal. five out of the seven prior iphone unveils were in september and june, historically pretty weak times in the market. the other two were in january and mid october, which is a strong period of the market. part of this is going to be a seasonal factor here. but apple was up today, finished the day unchanged. what everyone was expecting they came out with today. there were no real surprises. it should

which is getting beaten down, let's bring if paul hickey. >> glad to be with you. >> the dollar has been on a tear only two down days in the last two weeks. up 2%. so we want to avoid companies that add international exposure. look at the industrials and the consumer staple sectors, both have been breaking down as the dollars rallied. we do for our clients is based on the dollar's trends, recommend stocks based on the ref few exposure. so two stocks that look attractive currently right now are republic services and. >> wells fargo. >> wells fargo, sorry. republic is owned by bill gates. 100% formation in the u.s. you will see more people throwing away garbage and more demand for their services. they also have a lot of room to grow in the recyclables. it's a small percent right now. it's increasing. wells fargo, it's cheaper. waste management has a higher valuation. wells fargo is the name in the u.s. again, it trades at a premium to the banks. itative shown they deserve that premium and again we see a stronger u.s. economy, the housing sector is going to hiccup, albeit grudgingly slow as

we asked the spokes paul hickey. gopro hits the options market. our own expert john tells us if this is the beginning of a wild ride. halftime back in two from post 9. with all the opinions about stocks out there, how do you know which ones to follow? the equity summary score consolidates the ratings of up to 10 independent research providers into a single score that's weighted based on how accurate they've been in the past. i'm howard spielberg of fidelity investments. the equity summary score is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. call or click to open your fidelity account today. in a world that's changing faster than ever, we believe outshining the competition tomorrow requires challenging your business inside and out today. at cognizant, we help forward-looking companies run better and run different - to give your customers every reason to keep looking for you. so if you're ready to see opportunities and see them through, we say: let's get to work. because the future belongs to those who challenge the present.

cofounder paul hickey is with us here. we can't go through your entire list, plus you have your client stuff. we will give our viewers a taste of this. when i say taste, i mean what in the world are you doing recommending denny's? >> it's the home of the grand slam, sully. that's right up your alley. >> the rooty tooty fresh and fruity. that's herb's alley. i'm proved economy should help denny's breakfast. it trades at under 20 times earnings and it's forecast to grow earnings in double digit percentages the next two years. >> we got into financials, cowan group for under ten bucks. >> when you see a strong equity market like we saw last year, these smaller tier investment banks, they get more business, and the bigger banks don't have quite the cachet they used to have, so a company could you wans getting increased revenues as you see the market do well and continue to do well as we think it will do notwithstanding this last weak period. we think cowen will benefit. they shifted profitability. >> i didn't want to start off

spoke's paul hickey joins us. welcome back. >> hey, how you doing? >> an interesting start you bring us, positive guidance is exceeding negative guidance for the first time in 11 quarters? >> that's been a drag of the last few earnings seasons is companies lowering guidance more than raising guidance. coming into the quarter, while everyone was down about the first quarter results, the fact it was weather-related, we're seeing it improve. we're not seeing it improve in specific sectors but across the board. we like to try triple plays, companies that beat earnings, revenues and raise guidance. last week, five companies that had triple plays. this quarter, we're over 20 already. >> already. from what sort of sectors are leading the way? >> there's been a lot of tech companies. there's been industrials. like i was saying, it's across the board. we've been seeing it -- what's healthy is the industrials. caterpillar today, great numbers, it bodes well for the construction sector. you know, you have alcoa at multiyear highs, decent earnings report, and jo

both paul hickey and jim eurio mentioned pent-up tax related selling. whether this is a real indicator of the overall stock market is still unclear but in terms of who benefits from a jump in retail activity, analysts at sandler o'neill say think e-trading platform. some of the names include e-trade, interactive brokers, charles schwab and ameritrade. >>> it's a rough day for the bulls, the worst in quite awhile. let's get you up to date on the markets. the dow jones industrial average up 1.75%, 273 to the negative side, the low of the day. the nasdaq hitting a new low for the day, 108 to the negative side. s&p 500 is off 37 points. the gold market right now, the gold market closed just a short while ago and finished up just under 20 bucks. ten-year note, the yield down below the 6% market, 2.6% mark, at 2.591%. we are talking markets in two minutes. o be found. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 at schwab, we're here to help tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 bring what inspires you tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 out there... in here. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 out there, tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 th

paul hickey crunched the data and joins us from stamford, connecticut. welcome back. >> thank you. >> what about this tuesday phenomenon? >> as interesting as it is, and you can come up with all sorts of conjecture, it's more coincidence than anything. interestingly enough, last year at this time, tuesday was also the strongest day of the year, and there was a lot of talk what's causing it, is this the beginning of a trend, and for the last eight months of the year, it was among the weakest of trading days of the week. so these things, you know, the trends come and go, and also the other fact is that fridays and mondays have been the weakest days of the year. so you could say that tuesdays are just, you know, a lot of geopolitical events on the weekends, and, you know, tuesdays reversion back to the mean after such weakness in the two prior days. but it's more just a quirky stat than anything else. >> the market's got a little bit of work to do to get to off the shnide if it's going to keep the markets go give me a read, we were having a discussion about

paul hickey from the spoke. >>> let's hit our trader blitz. first up, intel. shares touching the highest level since august of 2012 after jpmorgan upgraded that stock to overweight from neutral. simon, you agree with this call? >> i do. jeffries came out with a note today and said best idea in 2014. couple of things i like about it. we all heard about pc sales hitting the bottom. we like that. like the new management team. intel hasn't given the street regulatory guidance. the big story here is they missed it in terms of the mobile space. think putting the resources towards it. playing the catch up in the tablet space. winner for 2014. i agree. >> this is john, i think he has this in his playbook for the year in the playoffs. it will be interesting certainly. citi downgrading shares of microsoft from neutral to bye today saying the company will be slow to implement changes once the new ceo takes the helm. what? >> everything old is old again. this isn't even a stock that's fit for widows and orphans anymore because of lower interest rates. they need a return.

let's bring in paul hickey. good to see you. >> good to be here. >> you did a handy dandy screen. you took a look at the s&p 500 and came up with the 20 names that had an 80% or greater rate of being positive. >> just looking at the last ten years for the s&p 500 because a lot of stocks haven't even been around foreign ten yea-- more t years. three we wanted to highlight. the first one is google. google, it's average gain in october is about 14.5%. positive 8 out of the 10 -- last 10 years. in 7 of those 8 years, it's had a gain of over 10%. it's not just one outlier year driving returns there. and everyone, you know, pooh-poohs google, they have their core ad business. outside of that, there's nothing there, but youtube, that was a successful acquisition, google play is becoming as big as youtube. faster growth rate. and the stock trades at a market multiple, it's growing 20 times. even if they aren't having success in other areas, they're still a cheap company on a relative basis. >> you also like reynolds american and ryder. so what you did, you actually picked -- you married u

paul hickey with a look at what could be in store for 2015. >> you're looking at the trailing pe ratio of the s&p 500. right now, you have a pe of 18.2 times earnings. longtime average is 15.3. the market is technically overvalued here, above average valuations. so that's not too much of a surprise here. we saw multiple expansion in 2013. but heading into 2014, the pe of the s&p 500, every time we got to 18, we saw a selloff. this was in january. this was in july. and this was towards the end of september. and we saw a selloff. in this most recent rally, we pulled back up again, pulled back. but now we're back above 18. i think the key to watch here going forward into next year, the investors who were selling when we saw these 18 pe levels, if they don't sell, are we entering the next stage of multiple expansion in the bull market, you typically see multiples expand towards the end of the bull market in the high teens to 20 level. >> is this a warning sign to you? >> i think it's a warning sign. i think trying to pick a top s based on valuation or even pick a bottom based on valuation

paul hickey is here with us. good to see you. >> good to see you, too. >> what should we -- we've already seen the impact on things like materials and commodities. that's no surprise. >> when you look at the performance of the dollar, going back to 1991, there's been over 20 other quarters where we've seen a 5% drop. the economy's changed a lot over the last 50 years. if you look at the last 20 years, but even if you go back to '71, in the quarter following these big spikes in the dollar has been a better period. what you look at going forward in the quarter, it's not sectors you might expect. you have materials, industrials and energy which have historically led the market in the quarter following these spikes. while everyone is saying buy domestic orien at a timed companies -- which is the theme we've been on, too. but now we've had this big spike, the dollar is going to see some sort of reversion to the mean. and these sectors which are deeply oversold are going to outperform. >> is it because the strength in

paul hickey crunched the numbers. he joins us now. great to see you. >> good to be here. >> what should we expect? >> they kinds of periods, the decline was shocking to a lot of people, but i think the rebound was even more shocking. we looked at this three-week period we had seen. we compared it to every other 15-days period in the s&p 500. ened we found ten periods with the highest correlation to what we're seeing now. you tornado ton a market average game of about 1%, but ups and downs. the average maximum drawdown over that one-month period, and it's only two periods where we saw a decline of under 1%. so our view is i think we'll by higher than that at the end of the year, but i think investors are going to be better served waiting for, you know, a bit of a sell offin the next couple weeks. there is some sort of pullback. >>> and what periods were the maximum drawdowns in? do you remember? >> i don't have them off the top of my head, but -- in all through three periods you saw a decline of more than 2%. so you tend to see some so

joining me is paul hickey, an investor, it does matter how the s&p has been trading going into the month of september as a guide tore how it will do in september. correct? >> first, yes, first of all, seasonal factors alon you shouldn't trade on them. they're one piece of the whole puzzle. you have to look at a multitude of factors. september it's down over 100 in the past 50 years, or 14u6789 years. year-to-date into the month of september, the s&p is averaging 20 basis points in at the present time e september. odds after a positive return 50-50. when we're down, afternoon average is three-and-a-half% with gains over a third of the time. there is a big difference, over the last ten years, the average gain of 90 bits eight out of the last ten tiles, they sort of counteract each other with the negative long-ter perspective with the caveat of performance and his tore. >> i want to get the two stocks on the upside of september. so cme and nike, why? >> again, first, we're looking at stocks that have a positive seasonal tendency. cme has been positive in then of the last ten years in septem

paul hickey says the sell-off is not the start of something bigger. he will tell you why and the most opportunity coming up. in today's market, a lot can happen in a second. with fidelity's guaranteed one-second trade execution, we route your order to up to 75 market centers to look for the best possible price, maybe even better than you expected. it's all part of our goal to execute your trade in one second. i'm derrick chan of fidelity investments. our one-second trade execution is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. call or click to open your fidelity account today. without standard leather. you are feeling exhilarated with front-wheel drive. you are feeling powerful with a 4-cylinder engine. [ male announcer ] open your eyes... to the 6-cylinder, 8-speed lexus gs. with more standard horsepower than any of its german competitors. this is a wake-up call. ♪ >>> the company firing a ceo, steph. >> the firing was a big surprise because he had only been there two years and moving slower than they really wanted. now, no

let's bring in paul hickey. nice to see you. analysts are a contrarian indicator? >> yeah. the worse. analysts haven't been this bearish into an earnings season since q2 2012 reporting period, over two years. what you find is looking back at the quarters, revisions, the's been 15 quarters where negative revisions have exceeded positive revisions and s&p 500 in earnings season through walmart's report up 80% of the time. average gain over 2%. median over 4%. conversely with seven quarters where sentiment more positive revisions than negative revisions the market is only up in earnings season three of those seven times with an average decline of 1.5% so when you -- you know, may not feel good the negative sentiment but for a bull better to be going it alone than analysts at your side. >> this extends to individual stocks so the more negative revisions there are on a particular stock the more likely it will do okay? >> i mean, you think think about it this way. expectation game. sentiment is weak. news is priced in. case in point is transocean. the stock right now yielding 10%

i have been in and out i took a little bit of a hickey. >> watch out how you lose. >> a pop, meadow world peace formally known as ron artest is complicating another name change. ban of twitter, announced his new tiny name the panda's friend t. name change comes after world peace, signed a one season deal with the citron blue whales. but it's not known is that the new name will be legally binding. artest actually legally changed his name to meadow world peace back in 2011. >> beaks is actually starting on this now. he started now. he talks about himself in the 3rd person. then he goes to b.k. >> what next, buddy? >> panda's friend. >> i will go with it. >> zynga following the earnings report t. mobile maker's call right after this break. . well dom back to "fast money." i'm morgan brennan, i have been sitting in on the earnings call for zynga. reporting earnings per share inline with revenues that missed the quarter, also falling short of expectations on bookings and active users, on that call which is still under way right now, ceo saying the company made the decision to hold back new ver

with us is paul hickey. i saw your tweet about the month of march crushing in high flying stocks although they're still up in this year. >> i think that's the most amazing thing about the first quarter. how quickly the frenzy into these stocks came and went. i think part of it was the slow economic growth. people were rushing into the sector and then when economic data improved a little bit, people started rushing out because growth wasn't at such a premium. so what we did is looking at some of these names like you said that we think may look attractive, may have the potential for a good bounce in the second quarter. two healthcare names, biogen and my lynn and then facebook is another one. all these stocks have pulled back and they're trading just above where they broke out from in january. so you have a defined risk. >> you pulled out these names because of the big move in the month of march but you like the technicals. >> right. >> let's look at facebook for instance. what we're seeing at least here to da

. >>> let's bring in paul hickey from spoke investment group. paul, why are you being debby downer today, after we've had a pretty big week of earnings? >> i'm not saying don't real too much into it. it was a holiday week. week before easter is traditionally a very strong week for the market, so the average gains of over 1% over the last 25 years, well above that last year, but you know, the last time we were up more than 2% in a week was the week before easter was in 2008. we know how that panned out. just don't get too bullish over it. a gain is a gain, but let's see some follow-through. >> light volume really helps that kind of move. responding quite nicely in relationship to the sell-off for the past month, paul. i'm wondering your thoughts, and whether or not we could see a bounce from there. >> well, you know, as far as individual biotech stocks, it's hard to play. i mean, just look at sarepta, it would a huge move today, but had a huge move down a few months ago. we would advise investors to focus on the large-cap diverse fitted companies

let's bring in paul hickey, the co-founder of the spoke investment group. there's two stocks that outperformed the s&p 500 100% of the time in the time you study this two-week period. which stocks were they? >> if you're worried about a 60-point basis sell-off in this market, you shouldn't be in this market. as part of our approach, we look at a variety of things. one of them is seasonal factors. we update clients on which stocks do the best. you don't want to invest based solely on seasonalities, of course. but it's one-prong of a multiprong approach. we have a list of stocks that have been positive. 80%, 90%, 100% of the time. some of the stocks we discussed were dollar tree, netflix, tenet health care, perrigo. they've outperformed the s&p 500 consistently. these overreactions to fed statements that we see on the upside or the down side, since zirc was enacted, have reversed themselves the following week. >> gamestop is on your list, as well. we talked about it last night, tim and i did. and it had this monster sell-off. and we thought the risk/reward fo

let's bring in paul hickey, the one who compiled the list. >> thanks for having me. >> give me some of the triple threat names, and accordingly there are three of them. >> well, first of all, let's get -- we called the triple play. there's other imitators out there we called a triple threat and nothing threatening about these names. there's three reasons to play them. beat earnings and revenues and raised guidance so the three we're highlighting today are from a report that we put out yesterday, and the first one is global cash access. they provide ways for casinos to get cash in the hands of gamblers. the stock reported a triple play earlier this month, and it looks to have broken a downtrend that's been in place for about the last six month in this stock. there is guidance by 7% in the stock trades at nine times earnings, so that's relatively attractive multiple for the company raising guidance. go ahead. >> you know what the really cool thing about the list is, paul. these are names you don't really talk about, right? whenever we talked about it. t. ameritrade that has insight into

let's bring in paul hickey. >> how are you? >> we have seen energy bounce maybe anticipating a move in the stabilization of oil. >> just looking at the energy sector, what we've done, we have this huge divergence, almost unheard of where the s&p 500 is up 5%, sector down 20% over a six-month stretch. go back 50 years it's only happened 16 times. very rare. first answer to the question, that kind of divergence doesn't spell doom for the overall market. you see better in line or better than average returns. second question, now should we step in and buy the sector that's weak. in the case of energy, when you look back in the prior instances what you've seen is that the sector outperforms the market over the following 3, 6, 12 months more than 50% of the time, usually more than 2/3 of the time. in terms of absolute returns, you see the average return of the sector over three months is 5%. six months it's an average gain of 10% and over a year it's an average gain of 20%. and all times the returns positive at least 60% of the time.

we welcome back jack barusian of index financial partners and welcome paul hickey. paul, your latest report, i have been talking about this two nights on the air, because you know i'm a king dollar nut, your latest report says that a strong king dollar is great for stocks. all right. now, so far in this dollar rally, not so much, but i want to ask you, are you sticking to your story? >> oh, yeah, larry. if you look back historically, outside of the last cycle, looking back, the market -- equity market has done much better when you have the dollar in a bull market versus the dollar in a bear market. the returns are about three times greater during bull markets than they are during bear markets. all in all, this strong dollar, as you're saying, should be great for the equity market and going forward as long as we can keep this strength going. >> let me just ask you as a follow-up. most of this stock market rally cycle has had an inverse correlation. stocks up, dollar down. that's quite unusual. but that's how it's worked. that's the so-called risk on trade. now, what

who cares if somebody's wearing a hickey freeman suit or has on jeans and a beard? joining us is "new york" magazine's kevin ruse. very funny guy who wrote about this in this week's "new york" magazine. when i read the excellent piece, i said we got to get you on. thanks very much for joining us by phone. you've been out there for awhile. do you really think this is turning into the new new york? >> in some ways, yes. if you just look at the economic data alone, it's startling. you have a lower unemployment rate in san francisco, about 5% than almost any large city in the country, including new york. you have rents that are $800 a month higher on average in san francisco than in new york. more job growth, you have sort of lower budget deficits and it's amazing when you're just out here, the level of economic enthusiasm. it's like the crash never happened. >> you know what? i was reading your article thinking this actually sounds a little like great gatsby, the heyd heyday with the 1920s. a lot of people feel like what's happening in silicon valley right now, with fe

now that we have less than 30 trading days left in the year, one of the best stocks to postpone, paul hickey is joining us now, what do you see between now and the end of the year paul to outperform? >> hi, mandy. looking at this historically, we want to look at groups and how they outperform year to date through thanksgiving, they tend to do better than the rest of the market through the remainder of the year. so it's a function of the winners keep on winning and the losers keep on losing. for 75% of the groups in the s&p 500, they tend to do better in the last six weeks of the year when they have outperformed through thanksgiving then when they underperformed. >> i'm sorry, keep on going, paul. >> so some of the groups that have outperformed that we would still find attractive are health care and health care services. one name in there, stair cycle, which has done good recently. and the group has outperformed year to date. tech hardware, one name in there that is a bohemuth is and. and health and human services going into next year, you think about it, the chance that the medical device ta

let's bring in paul hickey. this is sort of our version of the dogs of the dow theory, minus the dividend aspect. it may be complete garbage. is there anything to it? >> well, i think it may be closer to the second thing you said. but the problem with the dogs of the nasdaq, so to speak, is there's not a lot, like you said, of dividends in the nasdaq 100. it would be the same stocks yielding the most every year just because they pay a dividend. so going back over the last five years, we are just looking at stocks that have been the worst performers in one year, look to see how they did the following year and it's mixed. in 2009, the worst performers of 2008 did great. they were up over 100%. while the best performers of 2008 were up in the mid teens. that was one year. the last four years, it's been mixed. two years they outperformed, two years they underperformed. not much to look at there. to this point, you know, what you want to do is maybe focus on some stocks that have underperformed and see if there's any

take a look at this stat from our pal paul hickey. over the past year, stocks trounced treasuries. we know that. but the past quarter has been a very different story. the total return of treasuries trouncing sexier stocks. let's bring in zane brown. most of our viewers probably are not deep into the bond market themselves. they can buy a share of ibm a lot easier than they can buy an ibm 2021 note yielding 1.5% or a treasury bond. how long will this mini bond rally last, do you think? >> well, i think you are likely to see at least first quarter far greater performance in things like high yield and the municipal market. but i think stocks are likely to surpass bonds over the balance of the year. we are likely to get a little bit stronger economic growth. that will support the stock side. it won't do anything to help high quality bonds. i still think high yielding bonds as lower quality bonds are likely to do pretty well over the balance of the year but still, not as well as stocks. >> what about the muni market, brian mentioned it briefly. it's a $3.7 trillion market, off to a stro

and on that, i checked with paul hickey because he does good work on that kind of metric. and actually, it's interesting because when he looks at the s&p 1500 and he looks at the most heavily shorted stock ifs that which includes faz d s nasdaq a 500 stocks, you see in april, the most highly shorted stocks are down more than the market as a whole. and i think that's actually significant. and i think it actually gets to the heart of what we've talked about all along in this market, and that is when you squeeze them out, the stocks have no natural buyers when they fall. and they fall that much harder. >> you know, you've been watching the markets for a very long time, herb. a lot of people follow what you say. what advice would you give in the current environment? >> you know, it's hard to give exact advice because you don't know where it's going to go. is it going to be the old proverbial catching a falling knife or is it going to be the great buying opportunity of all time? and when you get guys like bill miller and then another guy like carl icahn, two extraordinarily bri

eve of the midterm elections and here to tell you how the results could impact your portfolio is paul hickey and, paul, of course, a lot of people are waiting with beated breath. >> when you have a democrat as president and republicans controlling both houses of congress, only happened three other times in '95 to '97, '97 to '99. '99 to 2001, and pretty much everything was up then. s&p was up 60% in each of the first two sessions of '95-'97, '97 to '99 and 8% in the first one. the best performing sectors were obviously technology which is partly due just because of the time and health care which is another interesting one there. whereas in on the laggards you saw energy which doesn't bode well if you're an energy bull right now and utilities were the laggards but they still saw modest gains, just not nearly as strong as the overall market. >> and in terms of the overall market, it does look like it fares better when republicans do control the senate. >> you know, i think you like to think like you want a ceo -- the ceo of the country being a democrat and republicans controlling the purse str

we're going to bring in paul hickey and kenny policy carri, and we're going to -- i want to talk about this rather than stocks, just for a second. nobody talks about this, kenny. there had been a bill passed in 1999 in arizona that was almost identical to this bill, almost identical. all those years, not a single lawsuit was brought. that's why i've been arguing, this is about business and capitalism, not religious discrimination, and i think it was business pressures that had governor brewer veto the bill. >> i think you're right. if you've been watching, even with what's been going on twitter, big business about never doingsh pulling out, whether it's the nfl or big corporate business that holds big corporate events, all of them standing up and saying absolutely not if this bill goes there you. >> in this kind of economic environment and all these businesses are putting pressure on, you're going to do the right thing and i think she did the right thing. >> i think if there was a history, particularly from the precedent of this law that i mentioned before, if there was a press didn't

joining us now from bespoke investment group is paul hickey. also steve nicholas and david lutz. how did you pull this one out of your hat? >> you need to better that pun as well. >> yeah, come on. last week, we were looking, just like to look at the seasonal patterns, daily patterns in the market and just highlighted the point that monday's been a horrible day, which yesterday was pretty bad, and tuesdays have been the best day. today has been pretty good. take it for what it's worth. but it is -- it has been a seasonally strong day of the week so far this year. >> it's not just tuesday. if you take a look at what's happening over the season of lent, you say for the past five years, the s&p has had a really, really good period. why? what is it about that season? >> well, it's interesting. this is a period of the spring, this two-month period we're in right now, the march-april is the strongest two-month period for the market going back historically. but it's interesting to see if you look at the s&p 500 during the season of lent, last five years, it's been up every year. going b

let's bring in the man who said it, the street.com's herb greenberg, as well as paul hickey. you're trying to contain a grin, if our listeners on the radio could see your face they will know you will say something like i told you so on netflix. >> no, no, no, because netflix isn't over yet. you tell me what's going to happen in the market and i can tell you what's going to happen to netflix. the fact of the matter is stock is down today because an analyst downgraded it after having downgraded, looking at fundamentals but as i write in the street today, you cannot tie a momentum stock to fundamentals. so the stock's off today, bad day for netflix. i can't tell you if it's interruption or the end or the beginning of the end or it's going to go up another 100 points. who knows. >> if you can't tie momentum stocks to fundamentals, what can you tie them to give you an idea what kind of future behavior they'll have? >> honestly, i think what you can tie them to is one thing and one thing only. that's when the company comes out and gives information that says it isn't what people ex