general motors has shed its lasted junk rating, with moody's changing its debt rating, its lowest investment grade. the investment agency says the company has built up its roddick profile while investing in cost. the giant jerk store merger between walgreens and write eight is a little smaller after antitrust regulators. the companies have cut the value by at least $2 billion and they getdivest more stores to approval. walgreens offering seven dollars a share, down for the nine dollars that was announced in 2015. up next, looking to leave london. taiwan securities are searching around for a new base after brexit. this is bloomberg. ♪ it has precipitated this feeling of isolationism in the future. that was responsible for the selloff we saw in wall street with many of the industry's showing the biggest decline since that lowest -- september the eighth election taking place -- november 8 election taking place. looking at the bank of japan with a rate decision. it is how they are manipulating that yield curve have in japan. this going to be one of the subjects we will be discussing. kathleen

moody's got ford's credit rating. we will hear more on that is that progresses. now i want to get right to sophie to find out how things are shaping up for asian markets. sophie: early in the session and looks like rick sentiment may be stabilizing. stocks could be heading for a mixed start. bonds under pressure tracking the overnight moves we saw in treasury. kiwi 10 year. we are seeing that move lower with yields moving for basis points. declining steadily even as north korea has more weapons. caution ahead of the fed position next weekend. we have the ecb meeting this thursday as well to consider. checking in on sterling, just holding onto gains near a july high. most of the losses we have seen since boris johnson came to power, and of course brexit headlines very much in focus as johnson is trying to secure an early election. bear in mind today indian markets are closed this tuesday. paul: let's check in with the first word news with jessica summers. sales in china fell for the 14th time in 15 months with deliveries down almost 10% to $1.6 million. manufactur

our next guest is moody's analytics. is the consensus you are seeing being a little bit to sanguine given that there is a lot we don't know? we don't know whether the lockdown mechanism has been effective. everyday day we are getting more news as the various aspects of affected.y >> that is a concern. we are looking at the impact of the virus so far on china and broader asia. from 6.1% now to a baseline being the expectation china will grow 5.4% this year. a significant downward revision based on the fact consumption services right now are feeling the particular brunt of the containment efforts in particular from the virus. we are also going to see the knock on effects of the flow from disruption to supply chains, manufacturing, exports as well. ripple effect through the economy. the pboc there in the kitchen sink when it comes to flooding liquidity? we know they will keep doing that by lowering various rate mechanisms. of the containment period, you probably see fiscal spending increase, bond issuance, does that create

and moody's has lost the appeal against the judgment that it broke hong kong's coat of conduct which resulted in a fine. the securities and futures commission has set a report on public companies failed to -- didn't ensure the accuracy of its claims. that ruling raise concerns about the stifling of critical commentary. news 24 hours a day powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in 120 countries, i'm courtney collins and this is bloomberg. yvonne: we have a big story making headlines today -- comes from washington. kathleen: the former fbi director, james comey is accused the president and the white house of lying. we've been following the drama on capitol hill. we joins us now. very dramatic day in washington 2.5 hours is what we heard from james comey. say theavevave to biggest bombshell came about halfway through went mr. comey actually said he himself was the aeak of his memo to get special counsel appointed. robert that is -- with mueller. let's take a listen to what comey had to say in his own words. >> i needed to get that out into the public square. i asked a friend of mine t

analyst atane is an moody's in singapore. if we get another positive reading out of singapore later today, it is going to paint a consistent picture of the slow and steady recovery in this part of the world? --ve: it does look like iced like a slow and steady economic recovery in this part of the world. you see it particularly in export numbers coming out of most of the asia-pacific region, where exports may be down over the year, by much, much smaller numbers than they were even six months ago. instead of down in the mid teens on a year-to-year basis, exports , a down by, 5% year-to-year big improvement. recent data from korea shows exports to china were positive in december. so things are looking better. domestically there is hope we would be easing trade tensions, improvement on sentiment that the worst may be over for that economy, as would be the case as you can imagine. tensions,is that something the f korea will be weighing today, will they stand pat to see how this transmission of public sentiment carries through? ste

. >> a lot of this comes from fitch and moody's and say, you get rid of this and it isn't compensated and is credit negative. your thoughts on that? can look at this .xclusively there is thethere is the decisie we corruption and it means and the increase in the to hopefully and that. -- end that. isa power transition expected in 1-2 years. policyaffirmative-action , what do they say about that? took over from there and have thehat this will security of held and said that correctingfocused on economic inequality. town.a full change in >> thank you. conversatione full there. we will be showing that on friday. that and ford for more on the program. this is bloomberg. >> this is daybreak asia. at theave a quick check latest headline. moreys he won't put product into the market unless the prices go through the ceiling. the brazil-based miners have been keeping things in the ground to prevent another glut that kept things low. >> a look at tesla. mass-marketn of models to shakeup management. the less expensive dual motor advisers not -- ing on >>>> the carrier will add extra services and is

moody's cut their credit score to junk last month. airlines flying across pacific are on alert after the erosion of a volcano in a russian peninsula. authorities have declared their highest alert as the blast sent smoke and ash more than 10,000 meters into the sky. force themng could to take alternate routes. the same volcano also up did last year. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. coming up, we take a look at diversity in silicon valley and ask why this is one metric where tech has lagged behind the rest of the business world. ellen powell will be with us in just a moment. this is bloomberg. ♪ haidi: intel shares slumped in late trade after a big fall in revenue and a tepid forecast. .1% to $17 billion and the third quarter after the pandemic hurt sales. intel has been the largest -- the largest chipmaker for most of the last 30 years but as others outsource, they kept components in-h

moody's cup by two levels, citing significant default risk. declining liquidity and large debt maturities. 23%, fall in the first quarter profit. income through june dropped to 300 $67 million from a year earlier, making a fifth consecutive year on year decline in quarterly profits. sales rose 4%. costs jumped 6%. betty: singapore's sovereign wealth fund is the latest to sell out of snapchat' parents. 6.7 $5 million. it follows a similar news. they could sell after a blackout period. snap reversed early losses to close up 6.5%. jim mattis is warning it could be "game on if north korea fires missiles that hit u.s. territories, including the island of guam. kim jong-un has discussed plans for an attack with his senior generals. joining us now from albuquerque is the senior fellow with the international security program at the sis. much forhank you so joining us. game on, locked and loaded. what can you tell us about the u.s. and also its allies' defense capabilities? this is the kind of situation no one wants to have happen. we do not want a cri

moody's saying that it could be credit negative, highlighting their business as a significant asset. has majorroposal flaws. not very many fans. [speaking simultaneously] .> thank you very much let's take a look at how the broader markets are doing in the region. one market to watch is the cosby after coming back from the buddha birthday holiday. we are seeing a reaching a new kospi.for the mostly just doing a catch up rally. other larger markets like australia and new zealand are falling with the asx 200 down about 22 points, after no change , perhapsfed for march signaling that we could be seeing a fed hike in june despite that soft patch in the first quarter. more to come here on bloomberg television. you are watching bloomberg asia. ♪ did you know slow internet can actually hold your business back? say goodbye to slow downloads, slow backups, slow everything. comcast business offers blazing fast and reliable internet that's over 6 times faster than slow internet from the phone company. say hello to internet speeds up to 250 mbps. and add phone and tv for only $34.90 more a mont

we also saw further downgrade, it lost the final investment grade status, moody's cutting it into junk. things are not looking particularly strong for shimao. whether or not it can raise asset sales like this, they look small in size, and shimao has quite a chunk of onshore dollar debt coming through to the next year. much like the stories of the developers, it's all about the dollar debt. developers had not had access to the primary market to roll over and finances offshore debt, therefore it has been global investors that have felt a lot of the pain when it comes to rising defaults and stress among property firms. david: there we go, resuming trade today. rebecca with one of the things we are tracking today, and of course the loan prime rate is one of them. have a look at this chart. it gives us the set up, where we need to be. china has managed to keep funding rate stable, that is your benchmark and money market rate. the question is, do we see the banking system -- largely remain stable in terms of the five-year, do we get that lower? we will find out in about 25 minutes. coming up

for has seen is credit rating dropped by moody's. companydowngraded the to be delay three with a negative outlook, citing the erosion of towards global business division in the turnaround plan that could cost more than $10 billion in the next three to five years. yvonne: standard chartered me face new fines in a criminal investigation. are weighingies action against the bank and individual employees in announced -- and an announcement make this year. ramy: a new data-driven strategy and -- smarter loans says the bank must embrace technology or risk being left kind. the way the world has developed, we have to go with that flow or be marginalized. hasbanking industry developed its own access channel to the world. >> when it comes to the fee income growth, that is getting hurt as well. in terms of new revenue stream, where do you see it coming for? usedod transaction of fees to be the easy fees and the banking industry. that will not be the case anymore. it's not unique for thailand. the world has got that. ,ou need that platform otherw

which moody says his credit negative. we are seeing shares fluctuate at the start after a three-day decline. take a look at the mood in sydney. up 0.1%. , buying you 17ar u.s. cents. a 30 day of gains. .> thank you very much let's check in on the first word news spirit >> president trump has lost a legal attempt to free up extra funding for his border call. rulingtained an earlier barring the administration from construction. they had asked for permission to dip into $1 billion from the defense department. the president expected to ask the supreme court to intervene. president trump insisting he has not given up his campaign to add a citizenship in the census form. he tweeted any news of the commerce department abandoning the question is fake and insisted the administration is assessing all options. it may seek new guidance from the supreme court. ran morning europe it must do more to protect the 2015 nuclear deal. tonium enrichment will move the next level on sunday. comments raise pressure on european nations who backed

as opposed predicted that moody's already will retain power in this crucial state. all of this after the latest round of voting ended on monday. the victory margin is expected to be tighter than five years ago. severe flooding has returned to australia for the second time in a week. evacuation orders are in place for 13 suburbs in sydney. they are expected to top $1.3 million. global news, 24 hours a day on air and bloomberg quicktake. i am vonnie quinn, this is bloomberg. >> we are seeing u.s. futures down .3%. this is after the s&p 500 lost about 3% in the new york session. we have the dow losing almost 800 points. this has turned negative for the first time since september of 2020. this is a potential game changer. morgan stanley saying we are firmly in the grasp of a bear market. still ahead, the demand for ev's has shown a surge in prices for rare earth minerals. more on the impact of russia's work in ukraine and have that might affect supply. many russians and ukrainians are moving their assets into cryptocurrencies. we find out more from the market ceeo just

china's annual consumer rights tv show has put nike and moody in the crosshairs. nike have falsely advertised its basketball shoes. we have more on this now. we know the show attracts plenty of eyeballs. it really did put nike in the hot seat. we have seen what you might call results in the past from other companies, but yes. , in conjunction with consumer rights day. the accused nike, saying that some of their shoes had their souls and they complained to nike about this but they have not compensated the customer. of the segment from nike saying that it will fully cooperate with regulators. 300 pairs of the 2008 was sold in china that in accurately stated the shoes contained airbags. nike offered compensation with apology. yvonne: very interesting as well that they targeted muji and all this. mislabeling. saying that the food it not reveal that they may have come from areas that had been exposed to radioactive contamination. bloomberg were unable to make contact with representatives from the company. they sold products from radiated areas as well. it includes alib

moody's has downgraded sri lanka's credit rating following similar moves by s&p and fitch. they u.s. cdc says requirements for people to wear masks on trains and public transit is no longer in effect. this after a federal judge in florida struck down the mandate put in place in february of 2020 one. a district judge in tampa deemed the -- the white house called a disappointing and continues to recommend the use of masks. libya's oil production has fallen by more than half a million barrels a day as a wave of >> as a wave of political demonstrations -- libya's largest oilfield was closed after protesters gathered at the site. we are told other facilities have been suspended for the same reason. >> we get the outlook for china's economy after the biggest decline in consumer spending and the worst unemployment rate since the start of the pandemic. up next, carmen reinhart says they won't rule out more growth courts as social instability continues to rise. this is bloomberg. >> russian troops have begun the battle for the dundas for which they have been preparing for a long tim

we have 20 downgrades and there is actually close to 30 downgrades for every upgrade by moody's and other ratings agencies. that 20 or 30 to one ratio is so much greater that we saw during the financial crisis, when the ratio was 10 to one. in terms of fallen angels, there has been $185 billion thus far. we see that number as close to $400 billion over the next year and a half, because what is ailing these companies is revenues, despite the fed injecting liquidity in the market rushing into the equity markets and credit markets. the markets should improve because that liquidity gap has been healed in a very big way. gdp,.s. has a $21 trillion and the fed has added $3 trillion to its balance sheet. and the physical spend has been $3 trillion. so $6 trillion of a $21 trillion gdp, that is 28%. the 100 billion dollars be the liabilities on the bond sheets? >> outstanding on these companies that file for bankruptcy. it is currently 100 alien dollars. we think it is a four-fold increase from here. shery: marathon asset management ceo bruce richards. up next, the hong kong pacific, howathay inv

markets very closely amid fears of contagion giving the bond fallout we have seen for china, which led moody's to place the company on downgrade watch. shery: from our market analysis let's bring in the chief investment strategist at lgt bank asia, joining us live from hong kong. always great having you with us. sophie just mentioned those credit risks spreading across asia, given the volatility we have seen in china, how big of a risk is this? >> largely contained, although the story is still in the early days of development. long-term and short i think systemic risks on the credit side remain very welcoming. haidi: what about credit risks in china, we continue to see the shift coming from beijing, perhaps they are trying to wean off the bond markets from their implicit guarantees. >> that is a very important issue. it is still an individual issue, so investors will be discovering which ones have more strong guarantees, and which have less strong guarantees. in terms of the macro picture, in terms of china, the growth outlook, echoed again by strong e-sports. the micro picture remains very ro

earlier we had moody's head of sovereign risk, let's take a look at what is happening in terms of the south korean ratings. aa2, fitch has aa minus. talk of a said she'd low probability, but a high impact event of a conflict there. here, but sheny is talking about a ratcheting up of potential tension here. go ahead and take a listen. at the moment, geopolitical risks is a restraint on the rating of korea. theseakes into account tail risks, these low probability potentially big impact events that would affect the economy and the government's capacity to manage the economy. she is talking about this low probability event. hop into the bloomberg terminal. while we are talking about this tension going on with the north korean peninsula, it turns out that when it comes to south korea and the korean won, look #8092.white line, it is at its lowest since june 2011. she says the support of the won is in a range because of physical strength that offer the in which isdebt moderate, only 40% of gdp. stilleign investors piling into that market. thank you. let's do a quick check of the latest busin

they have been ditched by bank of america and goldman sachs and it cuts deep into junk by moody's. haidi: the sunday telegraph says istish airways owner preparing a bid for fly be. put the head against richard branson, the owner of virgin atlantic, also in discussion about a takeover. fly be confirmed earlier it is in talks with several parties because it is facing stress from rising oil prices. the future of taiwan's first female leader is in doubt after voters dealt her party a steep loss in local elections over the weekend. the pro-independent lost several cities to the party which promotes improving ties to china. let's look at this with our analyst. this is a stunning blow for the president. could she go down as the first one term president? that is a possibility. the blue wave may not have swept across the united states, but it certainly hit taiwan over the weekend. thisuling party, led by woman, was expected to lose one or two cities it had controlled, but the extent of this loss swept past anyone's expectations. these were local elections, mayors and county magistrates in t

moody sees disruptions stretching into 2022, affects only diminishing in the second half of the year. there's a risk inflation may remain higher for longer in the united states and some emerging-market countries. with the fed meeting in vocus today, we look at u.s. data, analysis from our economics team shows there is an abrupt shift from supply excess precrisis, they are at a 20 year high. the world's largest contract logistics provider says the worst may be over. they are seeing more goods arriving at facilities which means supply chain snags are beginning to subside at least on the logistics front. we want to note this interesting take on the supply chain issue. robin brooks argues that delays are centered in the united states more than elsewhere. he says u.s. supply disruptions are about demand, not supply. he points to this chart of delivery times in different locations and how far they divide than usual. the u.s. delays are at a scale of japan after fukushima in 2011 but little elsewhere. bloomberg terminal users can read more about the stories in our newsletter, supply line. sh

>> as far as having the banks provide more lending to the developers, moody said yesterday that in the third quarter, inc. loan growth to developers was the lowest in a decade. there has been obvious tamp down from the banking side to provide financing to developers because their concern is to whether or not they will get paid as well. not to mention the defaults we have seen in recent months. haidi: as we continue to monitor the property sector and the fate of kaisa, we are hearing that the offer to extend 6.5% senior notes that is just crossing the bloomberg now. we will continue to watch that as the details get to us. then, we are seeing the announcement of a lapse of the exchange -- related to the outstanding 6.5% senior note due as well. our china credit editor is there with us. that's get a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. priced shares in the hong kong listing of its twitter like product. chinese regulators continue their tightening of oversight on local firms traded overseas. the u.s. is increasingly scrutinizing listing chinese companies. boeing shares rose

let's bring in the moody's analytics economist joining us from sydney. not just the gdp, which we are expecting a contraction of 6% year on year but also trade them a home prices, domestic activity indicators. i am wondering how much of the bad news has been priced in, because we know the last quarter is going to be terrible? china's economy was knocked off course by the coronavirus. we are expecting gdp will come in with the contraction of 4.6% in march and that follows the 6% expansion in december. it has been a swift deterioration for china's economy. what is important to note is with the march activity data we are expecting later this week, we should see some improvement. we are expecting that february was the brunt of the economic impact for coronavirus on china's economy. we saw a really significant double-digit deterioration across the suite of activity data like industrial production, retail trade. while we are expecting to see contractions again in the month of march, activity data prince, it should be a much smaller contraction across those sui

in the long-term future, the mindset of the people is kind of moody and concerned by what is happening. su: that was the -- betty: talking to tom mackenzie about potential. ruling party with a major blow. looking at the ramifications. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ asia. this is daybreak i am betty liu. yvonne: i-95 man. as we mentioned earlier, japanese politics is something of a shakeup with tokyo failing to counter the new party. taking 60landslide, seats in the 127 strong city assembly here that keeps pressure on shinzo abe and his mp's. with other worst performance in tokyo. talking more about this thing, this was a historic defeat. how serious is this really? does that spell trouble? is a fantastic result. what we have just had here is a smack upside the head for the prime minister and saying, get some points on the board. until we would have strong rumors of the election of the end of the year, they will have an election, you will do almost nothing. nothing is controversial ahead of that. what people want is more money in their pockets, get the economy going, get corporate profits u

we have about 90 companies reporting and asia today including toyota, which comes after mitsubishi moody's -- mitsubishi motors became the latest japanese carmaker to be hit by falling to man. olympus is in focus after adr's jump to a record high after delivering a profit beat and announcing a new business plan. forecasts were unchanged. output, it is seen driving revenue and growth for the next fears. softbank shares may come under pressure. after the company posted its first profit loss. current pricing suggests a 5% drop in the last time we saw such a decline was back in early june. haidi: we will have lots more on softbank ahead. the senior research analyst joins us in the next hour of "daybreak asia" to break down those numbers. eums, the cofounder of ether joins us to talk about the outlook for crypto. he has great views. the market open is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ here, it all starts with a simple... hello! -hi! how can i help? a data plan for everyone. everyone? everyone. let's send to everyone! [ camera clicking ] wifi up there? -ahhh. sure, why not? how'd he get out?! a camer

it had its credit rating cut at moody's. toshiba, a lot coming out of that, still trading way below peak. it opened a little bit below that. foxconn now confirming a strong forfor the chip business toshiba. toshiba also said it is not unit.g its tec .ut to sell south korean airlines flat at the moment. the low-cost carrier over in south korea suspending some flights on worsening ties with china. it comesalk about when to the markets. those are your individual movers for the day. a lot of risk appetite -- not a lot of risk appetite out there. yvonne: thank you. senior officials in beijing say the economy has shown improvement in the first two months of the year, striking a more optimistic town than that of the premier li keqiang. tom mackenzie joins us live from beijing, so less risk of a hard landing then? it seems like a more far off and distant prospect. economic officials have a spring in their step over this npc when it comes to the economy. theeard from the head of national bureau of statistics over the weekend. to two

into whattic take you moody's is saying. if you assume the economy still grows roughly at about 2%, then pressure should continue to be in place for the second half of this year. a lot more loss provisions coming to place. big plans for expansion in china. what are the plans? david: what we know is they plan to increase their revenue in china. just looking at my notes here, 100% increase. i would assume that is over the five years they are expected to double their head count in china. doubling the headcount over five years. when under percent increase to supplement that. this is the jv. the securities measure, which back in june, they took a majority control of 154 staff. in terms of where they plan to hire those people, the objective is to essentially double the contribution to revenue growth from the ultrahigh strategic client over the next three years. it is the strongest fork is -- jobless focus may terms of headcount, infrastructure growth compared to any country in the world. asia-pacific earnings season just wrapping

haidi: moody's analytics senior economist joining us from sydney. next, ubs and deutsche bank have a new leader to look at what lies ahead. this is bloomberg. >> the latest business headlines. aramco will look for investment opportunities in india days after reliance scrap plans for deals with the energy giant. aramco says it will keep looking for potential investments in india with reliant. planning to roll out test rides of its electric two wheeler to more than 1000 electric that indian cities and towns. the softbank company receive 1000 orders a few months ago. deliveries have been delayed. test runs will only open to those who have reserved suitors. the latest ghost busters reboot topped the north american box office. taking in $44 million in opening weekend higher than sony's own production of 41 weekend. shery: two of europe's banking giants have picked new chairman's. why is there this shuffle at the top now? >> axel weber at ubs and at deutsche bank are said to step down. the chief executive are -- officers at both banks are expected to prov

kathleen: very moody and away. 7:30 p.m. in new york. it is cloudy here as well, but the evening is still kind of warm and sparkly. i am kathleen hays in the big apple. yvonne: i am yvonne man in hong kong thing. -- hong kong. let's go to paul allen. paul: chancellor merkel goes into coalition talks this week in a more vulnerable position after the christian democrats union was beaten. three days after the vote, they had the worst result in the saxony region since 1959, losing control of the social democrats. -- to the social democrats. india's finance ministers said recent manufacturing data shows growth is returning to its normal course following the cash ban and usp rollout. washington is reassured by the world economic output for the next few years. he's at the most important priority for the indian government is to find jobs for the 12 million young people entering the workforce every year. the philippine government is planning to target more companies and crackdown on tax evasion. the tax reform bill should be approved by lawmakers

credit rating last year from moody and finch, any plans to raise money? there has been talks about u.s. to nominated fundraising amounting to a billion dollars. >> getting the aaa ratings from the three rating companies is certainly very important for us, because we are recognized of -- for high standards and sound governance. even though we do not need to borrow any time soon, the triple rating -- aaa rating is crucial for market recognition. we don't need to go to the market right now, but we believe that in due course, it is ourssary to establish presence in the international capital market. asiae: that was the infrastructure investment bank's president. you can watch us live and catch up on past interviews. can become part of the conversation and send us instant messages during our show if you have a question for our guests throughout the morning. this is for bloomberg subscribers only. this is bloomberg. ♪ kathleen: time for a quick check on the business flash headlines. they are trying to revise merger they called fujifilm's lawsuit a desperate ne

moody's investors service shifting their outlook to negative. how big of a blow is this for mexico's fiscal position? i think this recent announcement on potential tariff s certainly was a surprise, and comes at a bad time for mexico, in that growth has been downgraded from 2% earlier in the year to now 1.3%. i think it gives mexico less space on the physical side. they will have to continue to cut, which is a challenge. on monetary policy, with inflation expected to emerge in the target zone toward the end of the year, and the fed on hold and possibly cutting, it does give the central banks some room to possibly ease, to smooth out these challenges. the broader issue -- denise: i think the good news -- shery: go on. denise: i was going to say, i think the reaction from the mexican president has been very conciliatory. he understands the immigration issues, and as we have seen, he wants to negotiate. it is not clear that these tariffs as been discussed on the program will go into effect. clearly if they do, it is a serious issue for both mexico

one thing that is revealing is moody's scored the two campaigns and found that a biden-harris administration would be much better for the economy. this is a debate that we absolutely welcome and what i think the american people really deserve to hear because there's a lot of talk on their side about the economy. the results has been disastrous. kevin: you mention about the stimulus talks in washington, d.c. the biden administration has proposed increasing the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%. they promised much more infrastructure spending. how does that balance and how would senator harris -- how does she push back? you know vice president pence is going to say you want to raise taxes. pete: the vast majority of americans already agree with us that the wealthiest corporations ought to pay their fair share of taxes. look at how much better growth was during periods where the tax code was fair and we were making those crucial infrastructure investments and other investments in education, health, and so on, that are really what it takes for an economy to grow. we know what it will take to re

in india and thailand, let us get to analysis from the chief economist at the moody analytics. what is a balance of risk here? in australia that wage price spiral is not quite the same that we see across other major economies. what is the dynamic you are watching? >> the wage price spiral may not be as great as it is in other developed countries. it is beginning to go up a little bit in australia. we are looking at core inflation and food inflation. keeping a close eye on that. thank you for a moment -- think for much of the region it is strong inflation, stronger than topline inflation. this will keep central banks on high alert going further. haidi: in terms of the data dump, what is keeping you watching china? is there a better prospect of a meaningful recovery in the transmission of monetary and fiscal stimulus that we are seeing the lifting of the covid zero restrictions? >> i think that there is a chance. the policy stimulus should become effective pretty quickly. the impact on the faulty stimulus is the opening of the shanghai economy. data starts coming out over the jun

we are tracking australian bank trading, tracking higher after moody's downgraded the outlook of the sector to negative. citigroup expects westpac likely to cut the first half payout by 10% to 18% after a dividend clampdown. we are also hearing reports these banks are really cutting back when it comes to fees charged to consumers and loan holders. coming up, more on the coronavirus including the long-term effects of a pandemic. we are talking decades, not just years and months, according to the san francisco fed chair who is with us next. taylor: plus, why a nobel economys is a v-shaped recoveries unlikely. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ investors are watching indicators to see how deep the covid-19 pandemic has affected the global economy, at least in the short term. over the longer term, the effects of the pandemic can last as much as 40 years, according to a new research paper from economists at the san francisco fed and university of california davis. joining us is the lead author on the paper, oscar jorda, senior policy advisor at the san francisco fed. professor, great to have you

moody's upgraded nissan's outlook to stable from negative and affirmed the unsecured debt rating. we will watch them at the open. in south korea, november import data shows prices rose 35% year on year. export prices were also up by more than 25%. the central bank will release minutes of the november rate decision meeting when the bank of korea root -- raised it to 1% with one board member voting against the decision. paul: ubs's record penalty for tax fraud has been slashed by more than half by a paris appeals court. the bank will have to pay about $2 billion for helping wealthy french clients stash undeclared funds in swiss accounts. our asia finance reporter has the details. why did shares go up after what seems like a heavy penalty? >> like you said, the fine was half of what investors and the market were expecting for the charge. it was that between 2004-2012, ubs effectively helped its wealthy clients hide assets from authorities. effectively helping them evade taxes. the fine was slashed from what it was originally. initially, the fine against the bank was going to be 3.7 b

moody's downgraded its rating for hong kong earlier this week. it is a move that hong kong exchanges representative says is not surprising. aside call for them to react. i think, clearly, the last year has been challenging in hong kong. it seems to be they are reflecting that in their report now. i do not think i am terribly surprised about this happening but it is just one of the cycles that we are going to go through. >> the timing could not be worse. it comes at a time when there's concern in the market about the china virus. surely that would impact investor sentiment? there are a lot of things that impact sentiment, but structurally, the market is very resilient, and we have a big, challenging 2019. if you look at the market, the bounceback was very quick and very strong, whether you look at trading volumes or levels of ipo's, whether you look at the broader financing activity, and you know, there's really no whichl flight or capital is aggravating in hong kong. last year again, we are number one globally in raising capital through ipo's. se

'svies has said this -- moody has said this is a long-term negative for the u.s. economy. do you think it is fiscally responsible? ray: from the standpoint of fiscal responsibility, i think there has been a lot of discussion about the impacts of tax reform that go beyond the conventional analysis. yes, officially, it loses $1.5 trillion in revenue, but if you look at some of the policies would they certainly increase economic growth and therefore increase revenue. i think the fun thing about this whole exercise going forward is we will put thoery to practice -- theory to practice. we will see what a 21% tax cut yearly does for the economy. betty: right now, markets -- we are seeing the stock market rally based on anticipation of the benefits of tax reform. when are we likely to see some results, some real impact? ray: it is hard to say. what is interesting about this tax bill is how immediate it comes into effect. provisions will take effect as soon as january 1. there is not a lot of phasing in in this bill. and a lot of things hit right away. the corporate tax cut, surpr

also, they're having issues with moody's and others. they were downgraded seven or eight notches below investment grade. ramy: great stuff. super reporting, super interesting. good story. up next, janet yellen said that that is lifting its foot off the gas. we will look at what that means. this is bloomberg. ♪ [ engine revs ] [ screams ] [ shouting ] brace yourself! this is crazy! [ tires screeching ] whoo! boom baby! rated pg-13. [ screams ] tually hold your business back? say goodbye to slow downloads, slow backups, slow everything. comcast business offers blazing fast and reliable internet that's over 6 times faster than slow internet from the phone company. say hello to internet speeds up to 250 mbps. and add phone and tv for only $34.90 more a month. call today. comcast business. built for business. shery: it is eight: 30 a.m. in singapore. a sunny but cloudy day. it is 27 degrees celsius. we are half an hour away from the open of trading. i am shery ahn in hong kong. in new am ramy inocencio york. let's get the first word news.

this is part of moody's push for self-reliance. in the commodities patch, crude flip below $40 a barrel, snapping a two day game as demand optimism is dented by u.s. stimulus stocks being suspended and gold extending declines this morning. is capital's -- saying this a temporary setback for bullion as realistically speaking, that stimulus package was not imminent. haidi. haidi: let's get back to our top story of course on the end of these stimulus talks. president trump putting it into these long-held discussions. democrats have been pushing for the 2.2 trillion dollar package. the white house has not wanted to go above one point $6 trillion. this coming hours after fed chair jay powell's strongest call yet for greater spending. timing is pretty extraordinary, particularly in light of the comments of fed chair powell saying that recovery is at risk for further fiscal stimulus has not delivered. to him, the risk of sort of overdoing it is small in the balance of things to do what did we hear from the president? >> we only heard from

pray minister modi's crackdown -- prime minister's moody's crackdown could lead to stimulus measures. donald trump has met martin to discuss what he describes as america's broken voting system. a growing number of democrats are saying that they will boycott the trump in operation after the president-elect criticized congressman and civil veteran john lewis. global news 24 hours a day powered by 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. yvonne: thank you. take a look at rio shares. pretty much flat. fourth quarter shipments beat estimates. let's go to paul in sydney. i guess that this has all been priced and given the run we have seen on iron ore with the chinese demand. the rest of the numbers though? >> not a huge surprise here. pretty much as expected. there's about a million more tons them the same time last year and they beat estimates very, very narrowly. for the full year, up 3%. that is smacked down in the guidance downgraded rio gave in october. the stock is pretty flat at the moment, up about a 10th of 1%. yvonne: talk about those iron ore p

so, let's bring in moody's investor services and a new outlook for asian severance for the year ahead, senior vice president christian de guzman. christian, i am sure you heard what carmen reinhart was saying. you are here to talk to us about all the downgrades, and your concern about what is going to happen, particularly in asia over the course of the year. what is your main focus, your theme for what is driving this? christian: well, as you had mentioned, we do have a negative outlook for 2021 for asia-pacific sovereign. there is nothing new here. it does reflect the continuation of the stresses that we started seeing from last year. so indeed, the pandemic continues to drive our credit use for the region at large. currently we do have six negative outlooks, and they are more concentrated in emerging-market spaces. we also see a divergence in terms of how sustainably governments can continue to provide stimulus, so advanced economies are in much better shape. but frontier emerging markets are going to have a little bit more of a tougher time should certain risks shape up. now, we're

moody's last week cut its credit rating and put it on watch for potential further downgrade, but fitch revised the ratings watch to positive from negative, citing the extraordinary support from state backed companies. kathleen: how long will the state backed companies be patient and/or have the chinese authority behind the scene saying we can't put out support publicly but you can, so please keep doing it? is there a place where the rubber meets the road? stephen: there wasn't a lot of details on the rescue package and plan forward, other than huarong saying it will be disposing in the near future of non-core subsidiaries. did not give a lot of details on the ins and outs of the rescue package and what will happen when the other company takes control. but because of the bailout and disposal of asset sales, they can have an insurance that operations can continue for at least 12 months. that's the only guidance they are giving, they will be a going concern for at least 12 months. however, the chairman in a statement did say we have learned a very harsh lesson. haidi: stephen engle in hon

over moody's, they have changed their outlook for the metals and mining industry from positive, saying the pace will fade out beyond 2020 two. privacy iron ore falling to the $70 to $80 range. pulling up a chart, the consensus is the bok will continue the hawkish tilt. the meeting minutes we got this week. the recovery has been holding up. there basically is a rate hike for 1% in november, with an earlier move due to upside pressure on inflation. one bok member noting cpi may stay above target longer than expected in south korea. shery: let's talk about the inflation concerns in the u.s.. a slowdown in consumer price names. we are assuring investors the fed has waited to announce that they preplan that left many concerned. many think it remains too high. kathleen hays is here with a recap. let's get started with what was in the report that supported the transitory count. kathleen: look at the latest numbers we got. the concern is transitory, if it persists, a little relief. especially if you look at the monthly changes. you can see the latest monthly increase for august of 0.3%. lower

sophie: a moody monday and asia. perhaps reflecting the weather in hong kong and singapore. zealand, stocks are falling 1.2%. korean shares falling .5%, snapping a two day rise. break seeing the kospi out of the doldrums. stronger producer prices are guiding the benchmark higher, the line in blue. the ppi growth is the white line. for february has surged to the highest since 2011, highlighting how the korean economy is emerging from years of deflation, boding well for corporate earnings which will support the kospi. ramy: you are looking at fletcher building shares, now taking a hit. what are the numbers now? of the biggest laggards and asia and those two at one point falling as much as 13% in new zealand, which put it on track for the steepest drop since 1997. you can see that the klein on this chart over the course of three days. in sydney, shares falling for a fifth straight day, shedding over 10%, the drop brought on by the cut in annual profit forecast after the company identified more expected losses in its construction division around two major projects. fletcher says

moody's has cut its sovereign credit rating to negative outlook citing weaker ability to fight policy because of uncertainty over brexit. this comes at the start of an election campaign and agency notes increasing inertia and paralysis in parliament. the leading political parties are fighting for votes, promising higher government spending. a state of emergency in the australian state of new south wales where brushfire risk has reached catastrophic levels. three people were killed and 150 homes destroyed over the weekend as fires burned through areas rendered exceptionally dry after drought.r cooler weather eased intermediate pressure but this is expected to worsen as the weather turned strike. -- drier. now the powerful cyclone that hit bangladesh and northeastern india. it has killed 14 people. hundreds of thousands have been moved to safety. the same wind dashed sustained winds up to 120 kilometers per hour and will drive a sea surge up to incredible levels. decideysia a court will later monday if the prosecution has made its case against former in the one mdb scandal. he denies wr

moody's withdrawing modern man's ratings due to instrument to -- due to insufficient ratings. they had struggled with creditors demanding early repayment. modern land has financial advisors. trading underway in korea, australia, japan is away on holiday. we are seeing a broad downside in the markets right now. the -- losing ground after seeing investing about a month. we are seeing the korean yuan gain ground on the u.s. dollar after the longest run of losses in over three months. we will be watching the be ok rate decision later this week. kiwi stocks and australian stocks under a little bit of pressure. u.s. futures down .2% after the s&p 500 posted the worst start to a year since 2016. we are watching the price action in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. downside pressure with bitcoin headed towards $40,000 level. we had seen a surge to prominence earlier last year, creating new billionaires including zhao who may hold the biggest crypto fortune of all. for more on this, let's bring in our cost asset editor jaron. the bloomberg index putting zhao 's fortune at $96 billion

moody's on the upcoming rba rate decision. saying the war in ukraine could have a disastrous effect on asia's economy. will take another look into sanctions on russia. central banks taking action to mitigate the impact of the new penalties. this is bloomberg. ♪ haidi: we're seeing steady trading when it comes to s&p futures at the moment. we are seeing a little bit of a break when it comes to the levels of volatility that have dominated the last few sessions. nasdaq futures up by modest .20% as well. when it comes to futures in europe, european stocks posting a second month of declines, largely after russia invaded ukraine. germany down by over 1% as well, despite reversing most of the losses we saw in the previous session. when it comes to stocks, the longest streak of losses we've seen since september 2020. also one of the few russian stocks trading in japan and another in korea as well. we're expecting further downsides for that, as we get the increasing risk of -- seeking feedback and monitoring accessibility of russian

moody's is saying the irma damage is anywhere from $49 billion to up to $92 billion. that is still a sizable member, but again, fairly big production from we thought, dodging a cannon. that is the apt analogy here. that man is or why the market is once again -- anchor: just a huge sigh of relief. ? all right. thank you so much. more on the north korean sanctions. they are going to cut deep. we will get reaction from hoover institution research in a few moments. haidi: our next guest expects donald trump to put -- who share his deregulation and balls. stein joins us in just a moment. ♪ betty: we are counting down to asia's first major market open. we have not really seen this in a a while, right? haidi: possibly showing a higher gains in thee huge markets. the s&p at-bat record. this is "daybreak asia, and i am betty liu in new york." haidi: i am haidi lun in sydney. we have been talking about harvey and irma. it could make it tough for the fed to take the economy's pulse. the central bank could hike in december, but no certainty. joining us is eric stein. he has wor

not getting the upgrade out of s&p following the move from moody's. that is something we are watching closely when markets open up. we are on a seven-day run their on the sensex index. >> a nervous start to the then recovered and ended flat on most major indices in china. the index still up 24% year to date. goldman sachs favors china, india, as well as korea and have raised their 12 month target for -japan, alsocific ex upgrades on msci china. with chiefe on this asia-pacific strategist. is it too late to join the party? dancestill think we can farther. >> what is driving this?great earnings and then the underpinning of global growth as well? >> to a large degree, yes. the best of the party is behind this, but we think we have credible gains for 2018. of index is up 32% as friday, and we think we have to in u.s. dollar4% total return terms, including yield. to pick up on your point, earnings. we have a terrific global growth environment which we are operating in right now. indicatort activity is running close to 5%. that make moderate a little bit, b

boeing's access to credit markets could soon be more expensive, with moody's lacing its unsecured debt rating on review for downgrade. in the next hour, william o'neill analyst andrew koestner tells us how boeing can whether the mounting storm. carla hill joins us to discuss the latest twists and turns in the trade war. will president trump's paris gamble backfire? we will discuss. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ hey. hey. you must be steven's phone. now you can take control of your home wifi and get a notification the instant someone new joins your network... only with xfinity xfi. download the xfi app today. >> this is "daybreak: asia." reports from washington said the u.s. is drafting a rolled to block text sales to huawei. the report offered no other details. and the u.k. look set to rebuff american pressure by potentially allowing huawei technology in its network. same britain deserves the best possible system at of one brand is rejected, top class alternative must be offered. a conic times square is struggling with the retail slump, with several big names looking to pack up and move o

moody's has put the company's a three rating to negative, given delays in making its profit union -- auto unions profitable. the nikkei news reports the department store's operator is in to cut by ¥10 million fiscal 2020. a share buyback reportedly being considered. a-shares,eck on a end slipping after the two notches to underperform with the industry seen entering a two-year earnings down cycle. paul: it is not an easy time to be stockpicking in china's market. at its lowest in three months. the hang seng on track for its worst month in three years. let's get some insight from our next guest, who started this china focused hedge fund last year. joining us from hong kong is chris wong. thanks for joining us. this might seem rather counterintuitive, but you like chinese tech. can you explain that? chris: it is a very interesting and exciting time in the chinese market. over the last two years, it seems to be the norm, whether it is a financial crisis, you have the chinese economy with the anticorruption, you name it. this is the time that is very exciting. what is happening globally