trading income slumped 18% in the fourth quarter, but that beat both the 26% decline estimated by ubs and the average 25% drop posted by wall street banks in the same period. the chief executive is more optimistic about the path ahead, and he is putting his money where his mouth is, increasing the bank's dividends and considering a share buyback for the first time in more than 20 years. >> we begin 2018 with a clean operating amount, that is the first time in five years for barclays. but also, we close 2017 with a strong capital position. 13.3%, that is above our target. first time we have done that in a long time. and what that will enable us to do is, the announcement we had this morning, that in 2018 we plan for a dividend of 6.5 cents for our shareholders. that is more than double what we paid in 2016 and 2017. we feel good about that. david: we learned from the ecb account of the january meeting out this morning that although they were comfortable staying the course for now, some officials were ready to remove a pledge to expand the bond buying program if needed. this is to quote

to discuss all of this is the ubs had of global emerging strategist and said haidar. i want to start with you, what do you make of the fact they are not getting anything extra anymore to own emerging-market high-yield debt. is this a signal going into the u.s. and leaving emerging markets? >> no, i do not think so. my focus is mainly equities and there's no doubt emerging-market debt has performed well. one of the interesting things about the big correction in equities over a couple of weeks ago, 10% drop in the u.s. and em, was have relatively well most other asset classes held, including high-yield debt in the u.s. and emerging-market debt. we think because of strong fundamentals that some of the local currency debt markets are still interesting, but generally, folks are focused more on equities, and we think it is more to come. david: talk equities for a moment, how much is a currency issue? if you are doing it in u.s. debt or equities, the value is going down, relative. geoff: currencies play a huge role in e.m. and we have always talked about that in our research

ubs says this could be a viable company if you strip out the high risk her kisses -- purchases. 11% of the company is high risk. lisa: there is a big question, are these properties going to be worth what anbang pace for them? liquiditye not, that mismatch is a huge problem. think about the siv's during the crisis. states, in the united we may companies and shareholders pay for these things, or taxpayers have to do it. in china, the taxpayers are going to do it. no question the government will print the money to make this work out in the long run. they put some people in the jail. maybe the founder will have to go to jail. in general, they feel they can get through this. they want to avoid an aig moment, the thing we saw here. that is the take away from this, if you want to buy yourself a hotel. alix: clearly. u.s., we are taking a look at steve mnuchin. you canin an interview, have wage inflation and not necessarily inflation concerns in general. how valid is this? you are laughing. michael: i am joining the rest of the economics world in laughing. lisa: and economist was on bloomberg

we will talk to the vice chair of ubs. this is bloomberg. ♪ mom you called? oh hi sweetie, i just want to show you something. xfinity mobile: find my phone. [ phone rings ] look at you. this tech stuff is easy. [ whirring sound ] you want a cookie? it's a drone! i know. find your phone easily with the xfinity voice remote. one more way comcast is working to fit into your life, not the other way around. alix: this is "bloomberg daybreak." about 30 minutes until the cash open here in the u.s.. there is a rally over in europe and in particular, the ftse, up .5% and sterling is also up. a couple of things going on. you have the more hawkish rhetoric out of some of the members of the boe. jeremy corbyn in his labor speech seem to apply a softer brexit. all of that helping equities and sterling. we take a look at the next board, you can see that rally underway. a broadly weaker dollar story on the g10 space. buying bonds. the 10 is down by one basis point. i wanted to point out aluminum. the outperform or when it comes to metals. part of that could be some steel ta

alix: coming up, keith parker, the head of ubs equity strategy. we will be looking at the market, looking a little softer this morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> from new york city, i'm jonathan. 30 minutes until the start of trading. this is the countdown to the pen. global markets struggling so stabilize. the biggest s&p 500 drop since 2011. followed by the biggest jump since 2016. equity volatility remains elevated. the market punishing investers who bet on an extended period of calm. and the callers from wall street remany patient. goldman sachs says it's time to buy. here's the price action for you. futures all over the place once again. down 12 on the s&p. negative a half of 1% and the f.x. market. we come down 1/3 at 1%. and treasuries do receive a bit. down two basis points. 278 is your yield on a u.s. 10-year. for the equity market for the s&p 500, while jumping nearly 2% of the highs for the trading session yesterday, closing with a strongest gain since november, 2016, that on the heels of monday's equity meltdown that saw the worst day

is ubs. joining us now is joe reece, ubs head of investment banking americas. relatively new to the seat. also with us is jason kelly. gentlemen, great to get your perspective, joe, thank you for your patience. talk about the opportunities that the -- that ubs sees in the u.s. joe: when you think about investment banking globally, the u.s. and the americas real large are the largest. substantially larger of by india and aipac. deal are robust, rule of law is good. when we think about a growth opportunity to match our global footprint, there is nothing better. jason: when you look at the regulatory environment, what's happening in the markets, even in the last week, how does that look going forward in terms of what sectors may be interesting, where are you looking right now joe: regulation is a fact that we have to deal with. all investment banks have to deal with it. i like to think of regulation as being a writer, not an anchor to our business. it gives us direction. in terms of sectors, that will be robust this year. in the intermediate term, tnt, infrastruct

we welcome the ubs team -- chief economist. still with us is mike swell. you tony.o turn to explain to me was going on with the emerging markets. will they outperform? back to 2015,o they suffered a lot. it was a very bad time for emerging markets. they get cheap and began recovering. if you go back, it's coming off much lower valuations. we feel they are still pretty cheap. it's one of the reasons you see this performance. we see good growth and a lot of these markets. it's a good moment in terms of the fundamentals. a lot of investors have done well. the volatility is moment -- mainly from developed markets. david: talk about the fundamentals. how much of this is fundamental, how much of it is technical within the equity markets? you know brazil well. how solid are they? tony: they have the worst recession in modern history. 7% drops in gdp for example. it's coming out of a very deep bottom. we have very low interest rates because of the deep recession. all of these things are setting up result have its best year since 2011. david: that's despite the pol

they worked with ubs. it will trigger next week. if that is the deutsche bank shares remained below 15 euros a share. at the moment, they closed at 2.5 euros. that's worth considering. the hna will have a smith can stake in the german lender. ramy: to what extent are the banks making bank in terms of the fees here? tom: well, over a three-year period, and we have a bar chart that shows this. there were about $55 billion worth of acquisitions over three years. 2016, $18 the end of billion and they generated fees of $200 million. many of these institutions are looking at helping hna unwind some of these deals by health put forward in the first -- helped put forward in the first place. they did about nine transactions with the conglomerate worth about $26 million and jpmorgan worked closely with hna, as well, about six different transactions. those banks are looking at working with them. other lines are hsbc and bank of america, said they would stay clear because they were concerned about the debt and the capacity of hna. ramy: tom mac

joining us will be the ubs wealth management regional cio also. he says it is under very specific circumstances that we see the impact of rising bond yields really causing another tantrum in stock markets. he says it's not a reason to get out of the market. he is still overweight global equities and the largest portion of that is u.s. equities. php reporting also. glencore as well. martina and -- mark keenan joining us in particular to talk about positioning and oil. ramy: thank you very much. that is it from "daybreak asia." our markets coverage continues with haidi lun, next. stand by for "bloomberg markets." this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ ,aidi: it's 9:00 in hong kong and 12:00 in sydney. this is "bloomberg markets: asia." ♪ asia-pacific markets are on the slide. preparing to deliver the last result. nobles adrift on a sea of troubles.

now, have an brown from ubs asset management, director of allocations. what did you make of the market reaction today? >> it was puzzling. i am not sure i agree with the markets reaction. i respect it. >> what do you think is behind it? jitters? confusion? >> there is some confusion on the fed's path. we did see long-term real yields rose, which is confusing given there was not much talk about the neutral rate or long-term growth, so that was interesting. inhink the market is pricing the possibility of a tighter fed think the but i do market reaction was more hawkish than deserved from the minutes i thought were fairly balanced. >> what do you think is priced into the market? >> in terms of hikes, almost three priced in for this year. anothert really have full hike priced in until the end of 2019, so that is where we could see the big change. is all this debate about 3-4 hikes this year, but over the course of the year we will see the inflation data come out and how the new fed chair handles this and how much he wants to let the economy run hot versus ge

showing you one of the best performers in tokyo, ube industries, set to snap a decline. oncks did fall over 6% friday after the company revealed improper quality checks for products at a chemical plant. the company said defective products were shipped to 50 companies. over in seoul, posco climbing with others steel producers. the potential u.s. steel tariffs could have an impact on south korea, china, and india, but effects will be manageable due to small volumes. posco has moderate export to the u.s. with less than 5%. the last stock i want to highlight is reliance worldwide. earlier jumping over 11%. it is set for a new record high after listing its earnings. yvonne: thank you so much, sophie kamaruddin watching the market action. the market action is going to also happen -- markets are going to be watching jay powell, the new fed chief, and his presentation to the semiannual monetary policy report to congress this week. kathleen hays with a preview. the fed releasing this 55 page text of his testimony. kathleen: the report, which he will be testifying about, so you ha

i caught up with the cio from ubs they said don't panic. when you see money being pulled of bondnd funds -- out funds, does that tell you it is the subplot of what is going on? is it rounded two? high-yieldook at bonds, you can argue in 2 different directions. the spreads are lower than they usually are. however, if you look at any default andel of recovery, then they remain quite cheap compared with high-quality bonds. that dichotomy needs to clear and resolve itself in the market. there has been quite a lot of flows into credit last year, and a bit of a float out because of the reassertion of volatility in equity market. i think it is quite healthy. i think it helps the market to clear anymore effectively -- in a more effective way. the daily profit says that the jeepers would be frightened out of the. you put it in context. 2 together for me. >> there is a highly technical position in the market. the people will glaze over technical forces in the market. there are a number of reasons why with the fed trigger in late january, the market h

equities have the best run since the ubs survey adds into the momentum. equity, did you see and the advantage? equities andbal everybody says they want to buy the dip and there is a scare danger.latility and so, it is good for you on that one. we chose the u.k. equities because they had under-performed bought thed have would putquities and .ore into equities >> hold those thoughts and we will talk more about that shortly. a quick check on the equities futures. added to thee run global portfolio with equities continuing the march and walmart will deliver the numbers. will they go further in the narrative? equities futures are trading this is the .ossibility who will that be? this is bloomberg. >> live shots of the emperor's palace in tokyo. aether you are taking pounding or not taking a pounding on the dollar, we have to talk about that. good day to you. >>: oh. initiallk about the public offering of a health care division as early as today, according to people familiar with the matter. they say they will use the money generated to acquire companies in the

i mean, try and square that away with ubs. is inflation -- as you say, if the issue started in the bond markets, do you believe inflation will show a vengeance in 2018, first of all? mark: no. you know, the preferred measures that the fed looks at our about 1.5%. that is well below the 2%. for inflation to pick up to get within the comfort zone. indeed, mario draghi has said they cannot declare victory yet returning to their target level. i think that there is still a note of caution, even from the central banks year. anna: when you look at the amount of volatility we had in markets, we are showing a chart of the dow. we saw the vix with the largest one-day move on record. what kind of volatility do you think that suggests for the future? do you see these conditions continuing? that normali think ,olatility for equity markets even in bull markets, you do see 10% corrections from time to time. just a return to normal volatility for the market, the kind of volatility that put the gray hair on my head over the past 20 years. it f

i'm joined by the ubs strategist, john, great to have you with us. what are expecting from the decisions at the conference? >> the decision and the vote are stayingo confirm thing as they are for now. there's an -- a lot to reflect on, the updated fiscal forecasts, progress on phase one of the brexit negotiations. there has been plenty of data , so there's agdp lot to put into perspective today. >> not least of all market pricing. probability of a hike in may standing at around 50%. it was higher. is mark carney likely to push back against that? >> we don't think so. that's come from the general move in bond market to an extent. think they will be content to see where the market is. there's a lot to happen between now and may, particularly around the brexit negotiation. to push back to much on market pricing risks closing the door off to them. if things go well between now and then, there's a good chance a mate hike. think they would like to see things state be much where they are. >> so balanced view coming out of the conference. >> there has been a

happen is, you would be, it would be free to you but you have to have fancy services in the car, like ubs navigation, maybe its a massmarketed car not very expensive, and it would give me these features in exchange for looking at the ads. that could be about three years away, that's what they are thinking. will decide whether this goes into any individual cars. will it before, gm, tesla, or will it be consumers? bethe technology is going to in the car. and the consumer choices are, yes i will it use your data with certain parties are companies. so there's going to be a terms of service agreement, something like that that will inform you of what is going on and you have to choose whether you are ok with it or not. >> don't drivers have to get permission from the stated to be shared with the automakers? yes, they do. that's a rule. they do. the ftc regulates this. a set ofrs of sent out principles on how this is going to operate which has now become the law for them. i think the question is whether people are paying attention to what they are doing. i have a 50 screen terms of service, one

feeling the deal -- we speak to m&a at ubs about the changing climate for mergers and acquisitions. and new charges for robert mueller's russia pro. white house press secretary sarah sanders is due to speak shortly we will bring about it. we are one hour from the close of trading. we have a check on markets with abigail doolittle. abigail: you are right about that -- bears are stepping in. the dow is down nearly 1%, near session lows with the dow and the s&p 500 on pace for their worst day in almost two weeks. we have had lots of volatility recently, the big rebound recently after two weeks of selling pressure. we are seeing the bears take control to a small degree and .9%,ech-heavy nasdaq up giving back many of the gains from earlier. when we happen to the bloomberg. we seek just one sector higher -- lots of red. 10 of 11 sectors lower. tech up top, up just 4/10 of 1%. the bears again, stepping in after all volatility we have seen. a little bit of uncertainty here. it'll be in see how this week plays out. another day of mixed trading action following next trading action on friday,

as ubs says, they don't want to reduce their exposure to stocks as long as the recent rising bond yields moderate. do you stay invested? jeffrey: i absolutely think you stay invested. this is about to much growth and not too little. bond yields can continue to move up and the bond market is probably in a bear market. that is a different than what we think about for a bear market for the stock market, which is like a grizzly. it's more like a teddy bear. a 2% down here is a bad year for the bond market. that was friday or more for the stock market. if you stay invested, keep a balanced portfolio. the important thing is that usually before the meltdown, which may be could be as early as 2019 or 2020 as we head toward the next recession, there is a melt up. we have seen increasing signs we are in a melt up environment . just to stay in your seats and double-digit returns ahead of that downturn. vonnie: take us through the scenario because we are seeing in europe a lot of companies missing estimates even as we see signs of inflation here and there. here in the u.s. as well, you are not exact

it also includes ubs, looking to boost shareholder returns after greater regulatory certainty. fully operating profit climbing 8%. really quickly, sticking with the financial theme, these shares down today, sweden's second-biggest bank with a jump in loan losses last year. mostly because of its exposure to the u.k. but it does want to expand your in the u.k. there you go, vonnie. well, it is no surprise we are going to stick with markets, and volatility is the name of the game, with the dow between the 127-point loss and a 155-point gain. is benjamin segal, newberger berman fund manager. really amazing couple of days. isolated event, or is this a regime change? think we should expect volatility going forward and that is how we are positioned going forward. vonnie: equity volatility, bond market volatility, or across asset classes? benjamin: i focus on equities committee national markets. the volatility we have seen in the u.s. it's translating overseas. mark was talking about it in europe. as we near the end of the period of low interest rates with the change of administration

we are joined by dormant once again from ub's the. is it ambitious -- from ubc. is that ambitious, norman? guest: we don't think so. we think bonds are resetting from the strong growth fundamentals that we have. up a bit moreomes than we expect, 3.6 is certainly viable in 2018. haslinda: are you assuming then for rate hikes this year, and a rate hike in march? guest: we are assuming three rate hikes. the expect one in march, but we expect the curve which has over flat,ear been very should start to steepen a bit more as we go forward. something like 3.5%, and only three rate hikes from here. david: norman, what does that mean for your financials, your sector picks? financials benefit from this yield curve. if you are advocating more into financials? guest: financials should continue to do well, we think that the way we are rotating is from a lot of the growth sector such as tech in particular. we have also taken money off the table in places like health care which is had a very good 2017. we are of financials, also looking at cyclic we driven sectors like energy,

we will be speaking with ubs. there is another call on buying the singapore dollar versus the u.s. dollar. why.ll be asking two testimonies from jerome powell. david: yes. then, a ceo is coming on the show to talk about how they did during chinese new year. more coming up. ♪ . . ♪ ♪ show me the olympic winter games ♪ ♪ like i've never seen before. ♪ ♪ xfinity x1, yeah, i always know the scor♪. ♪ triple corks in 4k... lookin' so sick. ♪ ♪ stream live on every screen, every win, every trick. ♪ ♪ 2000 hours of coverage, get your mind blown. ♪ 50 olympic channels, yup, you're in the zone. ♪ ♪ and if there's something that you want to see, ♪ pick up that voice remote and just say "show me..." ♪ experience nbcuniversal's coverage of the olympic winter games like never before with xfinity. proud partner of team usa. >> -- haslinda: i'm haslinda amin. tradingnd we are ending on the china mainland. welcome to "bloomberg markets asia." david: markets across the asia-pacific extending a the euroglobal rally, weakness ahead. a barrage of data from japan. inv

head of asia asset allocation at ubs. that's get you an update of your latest business flash headlines. starting off with rio tinto promising a record full-year dividend of $5.2 billion. an additional $1 billion buyback. earnings at 6%. a $.6 billion with higher commodity prices. the ceo said the minor is looking for deal opportunities and running a new venture. there he go, down about 2%. asia's biggestt byk profit driven [indiscernible] net income was 33% from a year earlier to $920 million in line with a bloomberg survey. it is the first of the big lenders to report. the ceo's decision to clean up the long -- loan book. david: deutsche bank closed -- plunged to the lowest since 2016 after an earnings swap prompted downgrades. shares lost 11% since friday when the bank reported revenue at a seven-year low and declines in business at several of the banks units. sinceave struggled agreeing a $7 billion deal with the u.s. department of justice 18 months ago. haidi: you can find our interviews on tv at the bloomberg. a

we saw that with ubs. credit suisse this morning, still somewhat leverage constrained, indicating that the basil for headwinds are abating for them, too. we have got a degree of the potential for regulatory easing going on in the united states, also. vonnie: all right, we have to leave it there. thanks for joining us all the way from denver, colorado. the close ofhad to trading in europe, let's take a check on where we are. we are accelerating those gains. the dax is up, the cac 40, up. posting gains of more than 1%. this, even following the whole of gains following the u.s. cpi. this is bloomberg. ♪ from bloomberg european headquarters in london, equities are finishing up the day in trading. let's see where we are at on the bloomberg. looking across the region, it has been a pretty strong day, with gains of more than 1% on the stoxx 600. higher, caping up 40 up some 1.4's -- 1.4%. the ftse has been outperforming, which is interesting, it was one of the underperformers yesterday, closing higher by 2%. ov

vonnie: our thanks to eric sheridan from ubs. mark: great stuff. why hehe blasts bitcoin, says the fundamental value of the cryptocurrency is zero. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ vonnie: live from new york, i am vonnie quinn. mark: live from london, i am mark barton with the european close seven or so minutes away. nouriel roubini says today's fall in the value of bitcoin is the latest proof the cryptocurrency is the biggest bubble in history. the economics professor from nyu correctly predicted the 2008 crisis and his calls on oil in the s&p 500 the next year or wrong. he spoke with tom keene earlier today. >> it is the mother of all bubbles and the biggest bubble in human history. to compare it to the mississippi bubble or the tax bubble. to tulips?te bitcoin it crashed in comparison, 30% last week at 10% today. all the way down to zero. the fundamental value of bitcoin to===. >> a bloomberg summation of this culture, the money question today is, the crypto people say they can separate the crypto industry, blockchain, the rest of it, everything we sa

ubs also says keep an eye out for bond stabilizers. what you have here is stocks and blue and u.s. 10 year yield in white. we have seen something of a stabilization today. the yield are certainly not rising at the same pace they were last week. that might also be perhaps reassuring some investors today. mark: thanks a lot. stocks in the u.s. continuing their three-day selloff of myths decline. what assets are performing well? he is a contributor to bloomberg profits. thanks for joining us today. we are off the lowe's in the u.s.. lows inly off the europe. is there further to come or are we nearing the end of the five or six day selloff? >> thanks for having me on. the selloff that we had seen last week was natural, but more important a rational response to an increase in real rates. real rates tell you everything about how assets should be priced, how risk premium levels should be set because real rates represent the cost of capital for companies. real rates increase, it makes it increasingly more difficult for companies to generate ex

you also see credit suisse, ubs, on top. banks trading rio tinto is a gainer today, glencore a gainer today. the miners are up, royal dutch shell and tote how -- total. when you go over to the imap, you will see the oils, the miners all gaining basic resources gaining as well as the financials. take a look at the losers, nestle is down today. we already heard from the ceo of nestle. southside --on the downside, although royal dutch shell was a gainer. unilever, consumer staples. down today. some drugmakers down, astrazeneca and santa fe. -- sanofi. guy: those are some of the stocks matt just mentioned. consumer staples, matt just mentioned. whether or not you consider beer softeningbut staples up. materials, a bright green area and firmly bid this morning. we talked about the energy or and the metal sector, that is causing a slither of red. i wonder if that is nestle related? matt, overview? matt: you know what i've got here? the world currency ranker terminal to show the weakness of the dollar. we have seen it accelerate th

deutsche bank, after lowering turns to ubs hna to help hedge its stake in the german lender. welcome to bloomberg markets, the european open. 30 minutes into the trading day. what are we looking at? we are looking at a probably positive picture. european markets, up .5%. utilities are bid, which is interesting. oil and gas making a comeback as well. telecom is looking solid. real estate reasonably well bid. vivendi looks to be the story. let's get a bloomberg first word news update. sebastian: the u.s. senate has blocked four immigration proposals, deepening a bitter impasse of how to protect 1.8 million young undocumented immigrants from pete -- from deportation. following harsh criticism by president trump, the white house has threatened to veto the measure. the institute of directors of u.k. business groups as britain should aim for a partial customs union with the e.u.. they say an agreement covering industrial goods and process agricultural credits would help maintain the competitiveness of u.k. industries. theresa may has said the country plans to leave the e.u. customs

ubs, glaxosmithkline all down more than 1% this morning. they really do damage to the stoxx 600. we have very few gainers right now. take a look at the few we do have up right now. let brooks one of the few gainers, up 2%, but otherwise you don't see anyone else putting gains up 1% or more. sandvik and land's are the only two that do that. here are the top 10 gainers on the stoxx 600. there are only five other gainers. everything else is a loser today. guy: stoxx 600 just below its moving average. from a technical point of view, that's something to pay attention to. trend following models will pay attention, as well. volatility has been spiking. they have been doing well. it's been interesting to see whether they are broken now. joining us is the head of european rates at mizuho. our reporter joining us on set as well. let's start with you. give us the context here. the markets, are they kind of capable of what is going on here? we have seen volatility spike higher. what are the models going to be doing? guest: you need to look at this in a greater context. the way i refer to thi

let's talk more about this conversation, bringing in the fx analyst at ubs wealth management. as you look through some of these details, and as we get more i action from around the bond, we see "the ride in yields is not because of monetary tightening, but because of fiscal overkill." let me read you a sentence from this budget proposal. it feeds into that, doesn't it? there is a rise in u.s. bond yields, so they would be related to the fiscal expenditure, rather than having cycle inflation rising. i encourage you to think in terms of the first ♪ rowdy effect. you would see the rising form of u.s. yields. then it is called the shakeup in the fx market. they have volatility is coming back. they are sad, is if sts you fence more and i beat the system. because of the increasing pot consumption. the second one hits the car in the seats. yousef: builds elio says bonds are rising and they are passed their peak. we don't know. the economy, though it is clear we are past the top of the bottom market. solving boss -- >> people think it is overpriced. that is him of the definition of

ubs pointed out that any return of the dividend would be a sign of confidence. i'm looking at how unless were positioned ahead of the announcement. buys.d 8 let's head out to debra mao for first word headlines from around the world. saudi arabia has extended foreign investment licenses for renewable period of five years from one year. , theding to the government move is aimed at bolstering the andtry's economic reform reduce the time taken to issue business licenses, which iparty had an impact. -- which have already had an impact. u.k. opposition leader jeremy andyn has raised his stakes brexit by confirming labour party support that a come brands of deal with the customs union. it opens a clear divide with theresa may. it wants the u.k. to be outside any agreement. would seek a final deal that gives full access to european markets and maintains the benefits of a single market and the customs union as david davis promised in the house of commons with note new impediments to trade and a reduction of rights, standards, and protections. europeanmerica's allies are

talking about rate rises coming faster than the market had been expecting and we spoke to a guest from ubs. ratee said two to three hikes is what was needed during this normalizing cycle from the bank of england. you can see the pound going stronger there. let's get the bloomberg first word news update with ed ludlow. president trump sees as wasteful, such as the state department and environmental protection agency. we arent trump: increasing our stores of every weapon, modernizing and creating a brand-new nuclear force and we have to do it because others are doing it. if they stop, we'll stop. but they are not stopping so we are going to be so far ahead of everyone else in nuclear. ed: treasury yields will hit 3.5% over the next six months as market price a steeper pace of fed tightening. the unit sees rates rising four times this year. it also seems yields increasing. ray dalio says the risks of a 24ession in the next 18 to months are rising. are past their peak. but he is not sure how far away the stock market is from its top. a week ago when a selloff with equity markets was beginning,

we are joined by the head of emerging-market cross market strategy at ubs. and jean boivin is still with us. i am very curious about this. you were the deputy governor of the big of canada. how were they drafted? did you count the words and say, i will say it twice, and that should fool the market into thinking this? jean: yeah, you spend hours, days, going carefully through each word and how it might be interpreted. yeah, you think about -- adding further to gradual is not random. there is a meeting expected to be conveyed with this. the meaning might not always be the one that is being interpreted by the market. but yeah, this is i think, crafted and calibrated to achieve a goal. francine: a little bit more confusion than the fed was expecting. >> the central bank governor is always thinking about it -- the market agonizes over it for weeks on end. i think there's no doubt the word has been put in purposely, but i think we could be slightly over interpreting it. i think the most interesting part of the statement, of the fed minutes is likely to be what the

expectedbeat the 26% by ubs. jes staley is more optimistic and putting his money where his mouth is, considering a share buyback for the first time in more than 20 years. the market has responded positively, sending the stock higher by more than 5%. we spoke about the plan for the future. of 2017 is that we ended the restructuring. the normal assets we were looking to sell, there are no more businesses we are looking to close. we begin 2018 with a clean operating model. that's the first time in five years for barclays. but also, we closed 2017 a very strong capital position, 13.3%. the first time we have done that. -- that in a long time. do, that will allow us to in 2018, we plan for a dividend 6.5 cents for our shareholders. that is more than double than what we paid in 2016 and 2017. we feel good about that. the first parts of january and february, volatility came back. some of us thought it might. that is good for the markets. but it's way too early to really get any indication. >> the early start was quite p

the chairman of ubs. axel weber and frank fort. -- in frankfurt. tom: that was an exceptionally important interview. mr. cranny talking to mr. weber. i also pointed out the idea of 2007 to 2018 and market-based finance. maybe that is a phrase will hear. right now you need a bloomberg business flash. taylor: the head of the world bank is the latest to raise questions about currencies -- about cryptocurrencies. he is comparing cryptocurrencies the ponzi schemes. he says it is still not clear how they will work. -- has returned to traditional strength. the french bank posted quarterly equities incomes. bloomberg spoke to the ceo. >> i know when i look at the full-year, compared to the banks which have already released figures, we have decreased lower. we are gaining market share. taylor: he says the prospects are positive for socgen's capital market and wholesale activity. commuter-based insurer xl group -- according to people familiar, germany's allianz is one of those two make a by toward xl. it has been hard hit in recent years for the cost of natu

we are back with daniel morris from bnp paribas and geoffrey yu from ubs. hong kong was significantly lower. is it just that the market dynamics are different question mark why was the selloff sharper over there? >> there was a big move in the renminbi yesterday. there are big move behind it. as we know, the constant creating in china is tension. at the same time, liquidity tends to be a bit squeezed heading into the new year. the chinese growth forecasts have been revised higher. francine: is there anything we should watch out for in the chinese market, then? or is it just more technical stuff? daniel: we are expecting the growth rate to slow, we forecast more on the services sector, rather than the domestic sector. i think the separation will be more important this year, given that we expect a slowdown in gdp, as opposed to the acceleration we saw last year. that dynamic will be important. , i: daniel morris believe it is important to get for the record, what your reaction is. exogenous shock that keeps you up at night right now? daniel: i guess we always

. ♪ emily: ubs could require in place to get approval before trading cryptocurrencies in the personal accounts. the bank confirmed it is considering additional rules and requirements for some staff. chairman axel weber warned of a "massive drop in bitcoins value and does not trader offer it to retail clients." stay with bitcoin. it hit a low for the year after setting an all-time high of $19 by december 18. and has fallen by as much as 60%. it has been hit from expectations of government oversight, fears of price manipulation, and lingering concerns that it is another asset bubble. joining us from new york is the managing partner of future early ventures, focusing on big data and blockchain's. also, cory johnson. walk us through the moves of the last weekend put into context for the selloff that has been happening over the last month. cory: it has enormous volatility in the history of cryptocurrency tradings. i think we have also seen the currency is being tied together as if it is all the same. those that are merely a stored value. the store was open and there was not much value for

we do both primary and secondary r, and, including ube early investors exited and sold secondary shares. >> you mentioned uber, dd, companies and the thing space. how does that work when you have competitors? where do you see the vision? >> they are not competitors because dd is in china. uber is the rest of the world. i believe it is quite synergistic because at some and thehe r&d division .enefits are immense it going to 70 or 80 companies. >> will you merge them? >> they can definitely be joint ventures and selling used cars to uber drivers. an insurance company like a limited selling car insurance uber drivers. >> where does insurance go? insurance atg up the moment? rajeev: no. expansion intohe other areas? what are you seeing in terms of deals? do you want to see more from the banking or geographical sector? seeing i think we are enough deals. the ability to process them is important. we are seeing enough deals. could -- thewe desire would be to see more from europe. we have made substantial investments in the u.s., which is our number one destination. we've made a few investments

he was a former at ubs. pretty smart market. there are some bad signs that we might get the growth we may make it much higher deficits and interest rates in trump is talking about trade war. and one other thing he talked down the dollar which is never good for the markets. it's not good for investment in our country. there is a legitimate scenario the people have to digest. with massive fiscal stimulus coming our way. some people will get on the personal side. it's not as much as the big ones. for small businesses are getting a break here too. in this type of world we don't have a massive amount of inflation. and while i don't think that fred is running on with her had cut off i think they are concerned about this. something happened here fundamental to the market it has been violent and fast. how they give an interview to bloomberg we want to do a quick reset here. look at this almost a 60 minutes ago you would've seen this number down. a near doubling of the losses right now. and the nasdaq has not lost it yet. still up for th

francine: on ubs, what was -- it was a very difficult day. do you remember some of the conversations that you had at the time where you realized something had to be done which would have been unpopular? philipp: we had done conversations about what it would look like. we had engaged with the bank to -- at the time to study some swap operations. we never told them that we were prepared to actually buy the assets or take them over, so we were well prepared, but the actual moment i remember very well was at breakfast at my apartment actually at the time in zÜrich, with the ceo and the chairman came by and basically told -- thomas jordan was there at the time, myself, and the told usulator, and they - that they now needed help. and that was a very clear, decisive moment. from then on kind of the plan went into action. and that was a tough moment, because we knew that, you know, we had to do it. but we also knew that it would be a grave thing to do in many ways. francine: talk to me about the capping of the franc to the euro. again, were there ot